2012 Leaf Valiant...a true picture of rarity?

[BowmanChromeAddict]

So I asked BG if he could give me an estimate on the total number of cases produced. Without much fight he offered up the number 260. Wow...starting there that's pretty rare.

Now let's look at the numbers by player using the Short Print numbers that JP poster earlier today. Now, let me say that I have made a few "assumptions" in my calculations. First, I'm assuming full pack out of all inserts. We know BG will hold back some quantity of cards for replacements, but I'm not sure how much of which cards he held, so I'm assuming full pack out. Second, I'm making the assumption that there are a total of 100 Pujols in this product. I'm guessing on some of the parallel quantities, and then backfilling in the number of greens that makes sense to me based upon "Under 40%" as his level of SP. Another assumption (that unfortunately forces the numbers slightly lower than they should be) I'm allocating Yasiel Puig and Michael Kelly redemptions as if each redemption was only worth 1 card. One last assumption, I don't know how many "memorabilia mystery redemptions" exist, so I didn't account for them. For my sake, I consider the memorabilia redemptions as a wash with the Puig and Kelly redemptions that are for more than 1 card, so the net effect has no bearing on the number of green base autos.

With 260 cases, 12 boxes per case, and 10 cards per pack, that's a total number of autos 31,200.
So, out of 31,200 autos
subtract 100 Pujols
Now all numbers below are considering 94 players on the CL.
subtract 9306 Orange or Blue (in the case of Cone, Kelly, and Bell where their Blues are /99)
subtract 2350 Purple /25
subtract 2275 Blue /25 (since Cone, Kelly, and Bell are /99, I didn't include them in this number)
subtract 940 Yellow/Gold /10
subtract 470 Black /5
subtract 94 Red 1/1
subtract 376 Plates 4 1/1s

So that leaves 15,289 autographs that are base green (not including Pujols as he was subtracted earlier). If you add up all of my numbers below. They add up to 15,288.

Based on a pure across the board average that would be only 163ish green autos per player.

Now we know that quite a few players are more rare than others as was posted earlier today.
(Reposting here for simplification)
Short prints (50-65% of standard run):
David Dahl
J.O. Berrios
Corey Seager
Deven Marrero
Lucas Giolito
Andrew Heaney
Ty Hensley
Jairo Beras

Super Short Prints (40-50% of standard print run):
Kevin Gausman
Kyle Zimmer

Mega Short prints (under 40% of standard print run):
Carlos Correa
Nick Castellanos
Miguel Sano
Alen Hanson
Albert Pujols

Since copy and paste may not format well from excel, I took snap shots from my excel and posted pics. I did include a copy paste below, hopefully it looks okay.




So when it comes down to it. We're talking about under 200 "base" green autos for the non-short prints. Then you look at the guys that are considered SP based upon the above info and you're looking at some guys being rarer in green form than in their numbered /99 orange parallel.

	Green Estimate Quantities	SP Level
VA-AA1 Albert Almora	175
VA-AA2 Austin Aune	175
VA-AH1 Andrew Heaney	100	50-65%
VA-AH2 Alen Hanson	70	Under 40%
VA-AP1 Albert Pujols	48	Under 40%
VA-AR1 Addison Russell	175
VA-AR2 Avery Romero	175
VA-AW1 Alex Wood	175
VA-BB1 Byron Buxton	175
VA-BB2 Barrett Barnes	175
VA-BJ1 Brian Johnson	175
VA-BM1 Bruce Maxwell	175
VA-CB1 Chris Beck	175
VA-CC1 Carlos Correa	70	Under 40%
VA-CH1 Courtney Hawkins	175
VA-CK1 Carson Kelly	175
VA-CR1 Colin Rodgers	175
VA-CS1 Corey Seager	100	50-65%
VA-DC1 Daniel Corcino	175
VA-DD1 David Dahl	100	50-65%
VA-DJD D.J. Davis	175
VA-DM1 Deven Marrero	100	50-65%
VA-DR1 Daniel Robertson	175
VA-EB1 Eddie Butler	175
VA-FR1 Felipe Rivero	175
VA-GC1 Gavin Cecchini	175
VA-JA1 Jesus Aguilar	175
VA-JB1 Josh Bell	175
VA-JB2 Jorge Bonifacio	175
VA-JB3 Jairo Beras	100	50-65%
VA-JB5 Jeremy Baltz	175
VA-JC1 Jamie Callahan	175
VA-JDC Joe DeCarlo	175
VA-JG1 Joey Gallo	175
VA-JG2 Jeff Gelalich	175
VA-JOB J.O. Berrios	100	50-65%
VA-JP1 James Paxton	175
VA-JR1 James Ramsey	175
VA-JS1 Jorge Soler	175
VA-JV1 Jesmuel Valentin	175
VA-JW1 Jesse Winker	175
VA-KB1 Keon Barnum	175
VA-KG1 Kevin Gausman	80	40-50%
VA-KP1 Kevin Plawecki	175
VA-KZ1 Kyle Zimmer	80	40-50%
VA-LB1 Luke Bard	175
VA-LB2 Lewis Brinson	175
VA-LG1 Lucas Giolito	100	50-65%
VA-LM1 Lance McCullers Jr.	175
VA-LS1 Lucas Sims	175
VA-MA1 Martin Agosta	175
VA-MB1 Mitch Brown	175
VA-MF1 Max Fried	175
VA-MG1 Mitchell Gueller	175
VA-MH1 Mitch Haniger	175
VA-MK1 Michael Kelly	175
VA-MN1 Mitch Nay	175
VA-MO1 Matt Olson	175
VA-MO2 Marcell Ozuna	175
VA-MS1 Marcus Stroman	175
VA-MS2 Matt Smoral	175
VA-MS2 Miguel Sano	70	Under 40%
VA-MW2 Michael Wacha	175
VA-MZ1 Michael Zunino	175
VA-NC1 Nick Castellanos	70	Under 40%
VA-NM1 Nomar Mazara	175
VA-NM2 Nestor Molina	175
VA-NT1 Nick Travieso	175
VA-OA1 Oswaldo Arcia	175
VA-PB1 Paul Blackburn	175
VA-PC1 Phillips Castillo	175
VA-PJ1 Pierce Johnson	175
VA-PL1 Pat Light	175
VA-PR1 Pete Rose	175
VA-PW1 Patrick Wisdom	175
VA-RO1 Rougned Odor	175
VA-RR1 Rio Ruiz	175
VA-RS1 Richie Shaffer	175
VA-RS2 Ravel Santana	175
VA-SP1 Stephen Piscotty	175
VA-SS1 Sam Selman	175
VA-ST1 Stryker Trahan	175
VA-SW1 Shane Watson	175
VA-TB1 Ty Buttrey	175
VA-TC1 Tony Cingrani	175
VA-TG1 Tyler Gonzales	175
VA-TH1 Ty Hensley	100	50-65%
VA-TJ1 Travis Jankowski	175
VA-TN1 Tyler Naquin	175
VA-TR1 Tanner Rahier	175
VA-VR1 Victor Roache	175
VA-WM1 Wyatt Mathisen	175
VA-WW1 Walker Weickel	175
VA-YP1 Yasiel Puig	175
VA-ZC1 Zach Cone	175

 

[Gwynn545]

I like this post...I will probably never buy an of these cards, but your post reminds me of me back in the days trying to figure out how many refractors there were in 1993 Finest...

 

[gt2590]

Thanks for posting Jim, you guys and the store make it thru Sandy OK?

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Scarcity is great, but scarcity alone does not create demand. Unless there is demand, the scarcity is irrelevant. And, as can be seen with 2011 Metal/Valiant and the current Metal vs. mainstream products, the demand is not tremendous.

 

[WaxPax]

Agree 100%, You could pull a Soler, Zunino or Buxton metal auto #'d /25 and doesn't even 1/2 the cost of a box...In more mainstream products hits like that cover a significant amount of a case...Just my 2 cents

Scarcity is great, but scarcity alone does not create demand. Unless there is demand, the scarcity is irrelevant. And, as can be seen with 2011 Metal/Valiant and the current Metal vs. mainstream products, the demand is not tremendous.

 

[Jaypers]

How many days until Topps is forced to release their stranglehold on the MLB license?

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Scarcity is great, but scarcity alone does not create demand. Unless there is demand, the scarcity is irrelevant. And, as can be seen with 2011 Metal/Valiant and the current Metal vs. mainstream products, the demand is not tremendous.

That's simple economics and nobody is disagreeing with you. Factually though, without a clear understanding of scarcity, the demand and therefore monetary spend may not be reflective of fair or future value. If buyers and sellers realized from the get go how little of this was out there, would they let the prices settle this low? These products get busted in mass and the market floods, but the bottom line, the numbers above will tell you that flood will disappear almost immediately. I suppose you could say my argument (if any) is that sellers shouldn't undervalue this product, there really isn't much of it at all. And the message to buyers, buy now while you have the chance, because there won't really be another wave coming.

With Bowman Chrome for example, there is the initial hype, the first few sell really high, then the flood hits, prices drop and drop fast. Afterwards there is some normalization and maybe some bounce-back, but there is so much made that the availability doesn't really diminish. With Valiant (and Metal I assume, don't know the production run) the availability after the flood will be next to nothing.

 

[notjomommasclint]

That is grinding it out. I applaud your work and thank you for sharing.

 

[P_Manning 18]

I use Chris at Card Infinity as a perfect slice of the collecting world. Those guys will buy anything and everything and Chris will rip it on camera. Of course they buy Exquisite and National Treasures...but recently a few guys have bought Garbage Pail Kids and Star Wars Galactic Files. Just about anything new he has people who will buy it and have him rip on cam. And just like a card shop he gets all kinds of different products. Within the last week people have bought 2009 Contenders Football, 2010 Crown Royale Football, 2010 Limited Football and 2007 Artifacts. So it isnt just new stuff. He has ripped TONS of Leaf products... 2012 Metal Baseball, Best of Baseball and Basketball, Helmet Football and Signature Series Basketball just to name a few. I find it interesting that he hasnt ripped a single box of 2012 Valiant Baseball.... I think that tells you what the general collecting public thinks of it.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

P_Manning, I was looking through his rips for Valiant as well and didn't find any.

Jim, while I agree that the greens are not as mass produced as they were last year, or say, base Bowman Chrome autos, the bottom line is that people won't pay a premium for a base auto when there are less produced variants. The /99s, and the /75s (nicely disguised as THREE /25s, which in my opinion is quite bush league), and 10s and 5s -- they exist in the quantities that they purport to (assuming no shady dealings). While the sealed product may be rare, that makes it, in fact, EASIER to hit the /25s and /99s and /10s and /5s and 1s, which leads to a lower priced card. Leaf, in it's attempt to get lots of color into the boxes, actually did the end consumer a disservice depressing the prices of the rarer cards.

I wish you luck in recouping the cost of your cases, Jim. You may, and I hope you do.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

P_Manning, I was looking through his rips for Valiant as well and didn't find any.

Jim, while I agree that the greens are not as mass produced as they were last year, or say, base Bowman Chrome autos, the bottom line is that people won't pay a premium for a base auto when there are less produced variants. The /99s, and the /75s (nicely disguised as THREE /25s, which in my opinion is quite bush league), and 10s and 5s -- they exist in the quantities that they purport to (assuming no shady dealings). While the sealed product may be rare, that makes it, in fact, EASIER to hit the /25s and /99s and /10s and /5s and 1s, which leads to a lower priced card. Leaf, in it's attempt to get lots of color into the boxes, actually did the end consumer a disservice depressing the prices of the rarer cards.

I wish you luck in recouping the cost of your cases, Jim. You may, and I hope you do.

Appreciate the well wishes. I'm doing quite well with Metal so far, and I'm confident I will do the same with Valiant.

One point of clarification though, Metal had 3 parallels /25 (pink, purple, blue), Valiant had 2 (blue, purple). I won't deny the bush league comment, I was not a fan of 3 parallels all /25 or even the 2 parallels in Valiant /25. BUT, I'm glad they were in the product instead of in some other product only to be released later.

 

[WaxPax]

Clearly, it would have been better served to produce a /50 and a /25 parallel from these 3 (would equal the same amount produced), offering more value to each parallel.

P_Manning, I was looking through his rips for Valiant as well and didn't find any.

Jim, while I agree that the greens are not as mass produced as they were last year, or say, base Bowman Chrome autos, the bottom line is that people won't pay a premium for a base auto when there are less produced variants. The /99s, and the /75s (nicely disguised as THREE /25s, which in my opinion is quite bush league), and 10s and 5s -- they exist in the quantities that they purport to (assuming no shady dealings). While the sealed product may be rare, that makes it, in fact, EASIER to hit the /25s and /99s and /10s and /5s and 1s, which leads to a lower priced card. Leaf, in it's attempt to get lots of color into the boxes, actually did the end consumer a disservice depressing the prices of the rarer cards.

I wish you luck in recouping the cost of your cases, Jim. You may, and I hope you do.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Scarcity is great, but scarcity alone does not create demand. Unless there is demand, the scarcity is irrelevant. And, as can be seen with 2011 Metal/Valiant and the current Metal vs. mainstream products, the demand is not tremendous.

Yes, cards aren't only about scarcity and/or licensing... a product that only relies on scarcity and licensing is a failed product.

 

[NeedChapmans]

There are three versions of the /25 in Valliant? (Blue and Purple ... what's the third?)

I know they made a Pink in Metal ... but only have /25 x2 is much better don't you think (unless I'm missing something)

 

[masonphillip]

Great stuff Jim!

 

[mredsox89]

One of the main issues, and I think biggest, is that the product almost mirrors Leaf Metal Draft. So even if there are X number of base and parallels, you have a set released just a few months earlier with almost the same checklist, parallel breakdown, etc. Sure, the design is different, but when you are already an unlicensed product trying to gain parts of the market, releasing two products with near identical checklists isn't likely going to be a good thing, at least from a collectors value.

I am a fan of what Leaf is doing and of their products. Ripped a case of Metal, waiting to get them all back from BGS. I think I'll do ok piecing it out over the next 1-2 years (which I already planned on doing), but it certainly doesn't help that Valiant released a month later with a near identical checklist

 

[Bill Menard]

Jim,

I think because most collector's have not embraced or accepted Leaf (or unlicensed cards in general - it's not just Leaf), the answer to your question is yes, we would let this settle this low knowing the quantities b/c it's not a product people really want. I do agree that the point of your post is very valid - this will dry up and be hard to find down the road. The real question is... does anyone believe that collectors will want these cards in the future? It's clear no one really cares right now, but no one knows the future of the collecting market or what will be in demand. Stadium Dome/Murphy sets were worthless for a long time (though important to note that they were licensed) and then all of a sudden everyone wanted them. It could be there is a key guy in here that gets overlooked by other companies and this becomes his only true rookie card. In that case, this stuff may climb down the road, in which case, there will always be some available to the masses because there will always be a seller for a hot item.


The message to buyers should be buy now if you are a collector and want one of these for your collection OR buy now if you think these have upside in the future (which really, is the same motto for any product that is released).

If buyers and sellers realized from the get go how little of this was out there, would they let the prices settle this low? These products get busted in mass and the market floods, but the bottom line, the numbers above will tell you that flood will disappear almost immediately. I suppose you could say my argument (if any) is that sellers shouldn't undervalue this product, there really isn't much of it at all. And the message to buyers, buy now while you have the chance, because there won't really be another wave coming.

With Valiant (and Metal I assume, don't know the production run) the availability after the flood will be next to nothing.

 

[csmtampa]

Valiant is just not visually appealing to a lot of collectors. I was in a card store yesterday and the dealer still had the 6 original boxes that he got in. Said no one was interested in busting it lol. Asked me if I wanted them at a nice discount and I turned them down. I do love Leaf Metal and think they design is pretty sharp. I'll keep busting those boxes until some of the bigger 1/1's are uncovered.

 

[Austin]

They're rare because Leaf prints so few cards to meet the low demand. Then Leaf states the product has sold out to distributers/dealers, as Leaf products usually do. But it's only because the low demand met the low supply.

It's a smart marketing decision, even though the sold out products are in no way indicative of the overall demand.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

They're rare because Leaf prints so few cards to meet the low demand. Then Leaf states the product has sold out to distributers/dealers, as Leaf products usually do. But it's only because the low demand met the low supply.

It's a smart marketing decision, even though the sold out products are in no way indicative of the overall demand.

I'm not sure I agree with this at all. If BG made any of his products to demand, there would be a hell of a lot more made. I asked for 7 cases of Valiant, was told I couldn't get more than 2. He chooses to keep the supply low, but the demand for the product was real and every one of his products have sold out within 3 days of solicitation and the most recent, Ultimate, was sold out within a few hours.