24: Over the Hill? Or just getting started...

[All The Hype]

It seems that a sizable portion (if not the majority) of the people on this board have the impression that once a player gets into their mid 20s, they are no longer candidates to be good baseball players. I find this more annoying every time I hear it, hence this thread.

So without further ado...

According to this quick google search, the average age of a Major League rookie since 2000 is slightly over 24 years old.

And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[mlbsalltimegreats]

I thinks its more that people focus on guys like BJ Upton, Justin Upton, Felix Hernandez, Ect. (Im sure I missed more guys) who started whe they were 19 or 20?. The thing is when a baseball player starts at 24 ( Even thought I think its a good age) he does not have very many year of padding meaning if he deos not come on strong within a year or 2 then he more than likely will be just a AVG player were as someone who starts in their 20s has plenty of room for mistakes and Growth. Basically A guy who starts when he is 20 can suck it up bad for a few years and people will still have confidence that he will come out of it and possibly become a star because he will only be 22years old where as a player who sucks it up at 24 for a few year will be 26 and then it does not look so good that he will become a star. Now some people do care about age so long as the guy breaks out (Prospectors maybe?) but to me I would rather have a guy become a star at 22 than 26 only because the guy at 22 will have more years to put up number and make his bid for possible HOF.

EDIT: Then again look at a guy like Wade Boggs who started when he was 24 or 25? and the guy still got 3000 hits!

 

[All The Hype]

I thinks its more that people focus on guys like BJ Upton, Justin Upton, Felix Hernandez, Ect. (Im sure I missed more guys) who started whe they were 19 or 20?. The thing is when a baseball player starts at 24 ( Even thought I think its a good age) he does not have very many year of padding meaning if he deos not come on strong within a year or 2 then he more than likely will be just a AVG player were as someone who starts in their 20s has plenty of room for mistakes and Growth. Basically A guy who starts when he is 20 can suck it up bad for a few years and people will still have confidence that he will come out of it and possibly become a star because he will only be 22years old where as a player who sucks it up at 24 for a few year will be 26 and then it does not look so good that he will become a star. Now some people do care about age so long as the guy breaks out (Prospectors maybe?) but to me I would rather have a guy become a star at 22 than 26 only because the guy at 22 will have more years to put up number and make his bid for possible HOF.

EDIT: Then again look at a guy like Wade Boggs who started when he was 24 or 25? and the guy still got 3000 hits!

I understand the reasoning behind why people like it when players start in the Majors at younger ages. Hell, I've been preaching all year about how good Rick Porcello is going to be when he gets to be 23 or 24 (the age when lots of other pitchers are debuting), and he'll already have 30-50 wins by then thanks to him starting his career at age 20.

But the fact is that not every player is going to be Rick Porcello or Justin Upton. Those are special players that don't come along very often.

On a similar note to your statement about Wade Boggs, look at Ryan Howard. He got his first real time in the Majors at age 25, and he is well on pace to hit 500 homers in his career, maybe even more. Again, this is another special player, but then again, ANY player that hits 500 homers is a special player.

I think unrealistic expectations have been created that all the top prospects and young players are going to be HOF locks and easily hit 500 homers, win 300 games, etc. Reality is that this is a very select group of players. In the history of the game of baseball, only 25 players have hit 500 homeruns in their careers. It just doesn't happen that often.

All this said... there have been, and will be plenty more players that start their careers at age 24 or later and perform at an all-star caliber level throughout their careers.

 

[Brett Keith]

I think it's more people have severe doubts about PROSPECTS or players just getting siginificant time in the bigs, who are in their mid 20's.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I think that there are very few people who think that beginning a Major League career at 24 limits the chances of a player having a very good career. What it does do is lessen his chances of being a hobby superstar by a significant margin and on a message board of baseball card collectors, that is significant.

 

[All The Hype]

I think it's more people have severe doubts about PROSPECTS or players just getting siginificant time in the bigs, who are in their mid 20's.

I understand this argument too.


Not every minor league player makes it to the majors. That's just the way it is.


But when we're talking about guys like Matt LaPorta, Michael Taylor, or even a less-hyped but still very talented player like Ryan Strieby who all are 23-26 years old and all clearly are good enough to be major leaguers, if not major league all-stars someday, it's a different story. The fact that people call 24-year-old Matt LaPorta "too old" to be a top prospect is just pure ignorance and lack of baseball knowledge.

 

[blitzerlover]

I think people severally overestimate prospects abilities compared to the average MLB player.

 

[All The Hype]

I think people severally overestimate prospects abilities compared to the average MLB player.

Absolutely.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

2 words.





Ryan.

Howard.


(Born: 11/19/1979 Debut: 9/1/2004 -- almost 25 years old)

 

[UMich92]

I would guess that the average rookie year age of players who made the Hall of Fame is significantly less than 24 as superstars seem to establish themselves before that age.

Alex

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

 

[HoustonTeams4Me]

I would guess that the average rookie year age of players who made the Hall of Fame is significantly less than 24 as superstars seem to establish themselves before that age.

Alex

The honest answer for a prospector in the scenario above should be: "Who cares". I know that if I'm prospecting someone I could give 2-flips if they make it to the HOF, as I don't plan on holding thier stuff nowhere near that long!

This whole "age" issue & the basis for it probably originated from scout's & transferred to place's like Baseball America & other "Prospect/Scouting" site's & publication's; & from these they trickled down to our hobby. The problem with this trickle-down effect is that we as prospector's are not looking for a prospect who can get called up to help our baseball team at an early age & eventually blossom into a superstar (as we are not GM's & do not own baseball team's, & while that information is useful to prospector's; age is not a determining factor for success in the realm of baseball card's & prospecting)!
Truth be told, age is only a factor because we as hobbyist's let it be! Many of the prospecting world is wound so tight on every word which site's like BA (and the like) say & writes, but when you step back & disect age & the impact that it has on card's- it all boils down to "hype" (& what the magazine's & scouting site's say about a player...If the player's young, you better believe there's gonna be an article on em; but you get a player that's crushing the ball or pitching light's out & they're over 22...Disregard em, they're too old). Personally, I've never heard a sport's anouncer, or anyone for that matter, say: "Eh, They're having an outstanding year this year but there's no hope of them continuing on this pace of production because they're 24...Too old folk's, write 'em off"! :lol:

Just my take on things

 

[bballcardkid]

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

And some collectors aren't wise enough to sell the player they collect while they are hot, and buyback in at a fraction of the price. Some are just too stubborn.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Its only wise for the collector if the collector is looking for $. Also not all collectors are player collectors; other types of collectors may not know exactly when a particular player is hot or cold.

Besides, if a collector has money, why would that collector want to go through all that hard work buying and selling all the time?

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

And some collectors aren't wise enough to sell the player they collect while they are hot, and buyback in at a fraction of the price. Some are just too stubborn.

 

[HoustonTeams4Me]

Its only wise for the collector if the collector is looking for $. Also not all collectors are player collectors; other types of collectors may not know exactly when a particular player is hot or cold.

Besides, if a collector has money, why would that collector want to go through all that hard work buying and selling all the time?

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

And some collectors aren't wise enough to sell the player they collect while they are hot, and buyback in at a fraction of the price. Some are just too stubborn.

If you consider that "hard work", you've not done a real day's "work" in your life! :lol:

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

You think constantly buying and selling to be easy? Do you bother keeping track of prices every day of everything you have? Maybe you just sell at a loss all the time :lol:

A person buying and selling is investing, or prospecting but not really collecting; we're talking collectors here.

Its only wise for the collector if the collector is looking for $. Also not all collectors are player collectors; other types of collectors may not know exactly when a particular player is hot or cold.

Besides, if a collector has money, why would that collector want to go through all that hard work buying and selling all the time?

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

And some collectors aren't wise enough to sell the player they collect while they are hot, and buyback in at a fraction of the price. Some are just too stubborn.

If you consider that "hard work", you've not done a real day's "work" in your life! :lol:

 

[aw00d05]

Its only wise for the collector if the collector is looking for $. Also not all collectors are player collectors; other types of collectors may not know exactly when a particular player is hot or cold.

Besides, if a collector has money, why would that collector want to go through all that hard work buying and selling all the time?

Prospectors simply aren't keen on holding on a card for 4-7 years - there's just too much risk involved money-wise.

And some collectors aren't wise enough to sell the player they collect while they are hot, and buyback in at a fraction of the price. Some are just too stubborn.

If you consider that "hard work", you've not done a real day's "work" in your life! :lol:

You've been thanked

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Im a little fed up about this "argument" as well.

For people that collect baseball cards for moneys sake, they want the best of the best down the line.
now i realize that age isnt "everything", but when you look at the history of the game of Major League Baseball,
most (now of course not ALL, thinking ALL would be absolutely nuts) of the "megastars" of the game started
their road to that career at a very early age. I've looked up the Debut age of a hand full of iconic mlb elite,
here they are...

Babe Ruth - 19
Ty Cobb - 18
Mel Ott - 17
Ted Williams - 20
Lou Gehrig - 19
Joe Dimaggio - 21
Willie Mays - 20
Hank Aaron - 20
Mickey Mantle - 19
Reggie Jackson - 21
Mike Schmidt - 21
Ken Griffey Jr - 19


Im sorry, i know that Ryan Howard was almost 25, but imagine his "worth" if he were born in 1984 instead of 1979?

btw, i am an admitted "ageist"

 

[All The Hype]

Im a little fed up about this "argument" as well.

For people that collect baseball cards for moneys sake, they want the best of the best down the line.
now i realize that age isnt "everything", but when you look at the history of the game of Major League Baseball,
most (now of course not ALL, thinking ALL would be absolutely nuts) of the "megastars" of the game started
their road to that career at a very early age. I've looked up the Debut age of a hand full of iconic mlb elite,
here they are...

Babe Ruth - 19
Ty Cobb - 18
Mel Ott - 17
Ted Williams - 20
Lou Gehrig - 19
Joe Dimaggio - 21
Willie Mays - 20
Hank Aaron - 20
Mickey Mantle - 19
Reggie Jackson - 21
Mike Schmidt - 21
Ken Griffey Jr - 19


Im sorry, i know that Ryan Howard was almost 25, but imagine his "worth" if he were born in 1984 instead of 1979?

btw, i am an admitted "ageist"

This argument goes both ways too.

Honus Wagner(8-time batting champ)- 23
Cy Young (all-time wins leader)- 23
Roy Campanella (3-time MVP)- 26
Hack Wilson (single season RBI record-holder)- 23
Bob Gibson (1.12 ERA in 1968)- 23
Randy Johnson (4,000 Ks, 300 Wins)- 25
Mariano Rivera (Best Closer Ever)- 25

Sure there are examples of both, and you can obviously argue that your list features better players, but we have to remember that back in the 1800s and early 1900s, Minor League Baseball was non-existent. Even when it was implemented, it still was nothing like it is today. Because of this, lots of the more recent players start their careers a little later because they spend more time in the Minors working out any wrinkles in their game.

My point in this thread is not to say that older players are better than younger players or that they even have the same opportunities as players who debut younger. It is simply to try to dispel the belief that a guy that debuts at age 25 CAN'T be an all-star/HOFer/whatever.

Look at Nelson Cruz for another good example: guy debuted at 25 and is getting his first full season this year at 28. He's an all-star, a Home Run Derby participant, and has 27 homers. As far as cards go, ask the guys that held onto him until this year. They'll tell you how much money they made off this guy.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

of course this "argument" can be bent either way.

but i dont think that it will change much, especially from those in the "i want to become a bazzillionare from baseball cards"
crowd that arent savvy or risk takers.