Am I the only one who loves "old" prospects ?

[XdanX]

I just picked up a lot of 60 2007 Bowman Chrome Jeff Baisley for $15 shipped. Why? Cause he is having a great year so far in AAA. With a line of .384, 9HR, 2 3B, 8 2B and 31 RBI. Granted he is 28yrs old if he was to get the call and showed that pop in the majors base chromes could easily be .50 or a dollar. Matt Curry is another guy, he is going to be 23 soon but went to TCU. With a line of .378, 5HR, 3 3B, 9 2B, 24 RBi and a 19BB /17 K's rate in A ball. /year after year I find myself liking prospects who are old for their level or AAAA players, does this happen to anyone else ?

 

[t3dudek]

I dont mind 22-24 year old prospects that are only 1-2 years out of college. But 28 just doesnt do it for me.

 

[bmc398]

I just picked up a lot of 60 2007 Bowman Chrome Jeff Baisley for $15 shipped. Why? Cause he is having a great year so far in AAA. With a line of .384, 9HR, 2 3B, 8 2B and 31 RBI. Granted he is 28yrs old if he was to get the call and showed that pop in the majors base chromes could easily be .50 or a dollar. Matt Curry is another guy, he is going to be 23 soon but went to TCU. With a line of .378, 5HR, 3 3B, 9 2B, 24 RBi and a 19BB /17 K's rate in A ball. /year after year I find myself liking prospects who are old for their level or AAAA players, does this happen to anyone else ?

No....if either of those 2 hit it big A. the window to profit will be tiny and B. I don't think there are 60 people who would even want one at $1 or even less a pop.

As cheap as it is....its still risky. The only way I could see it paying out at a point that matters is if the prospect was a local guy or played for the local team.

If you're collecting them tho....good for you!

 

[prospectorgems]

I will do that from time to time. If it's cheap enough and the player gets called up and does well, can be a quick little flip.

 

[gracecollector]

Dan will be making popcorn and showing his favorite movie tonight, if anyone wants to stop over.

 

[All The Hype]

As far as I'm concerned, age is completely unimportant if a player gets called to the Majors and performs.


We see examples of it every year where a player makes a small adjustment late in their Minor League careers and go from career AAAA player to Rookie of the Year candidate, and their baseball cards respond.

I dont mind 22-24 year old prospects that are only 1-2 years out of college. But 28 just doesnt do it for me.

David Freese, Nelson Cruz, Kila Kaaihue, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Howard--All examples off the top of my head of guys older than 24 who made big splashes. It's generally smarter to go with younger players, but when certain players are extremely cheap, it just doesn't matter how old they are. Performing at the MLB level trumps age every time.

 

[Exposfan]

If thats what you are into- I hear Sean Burroughs and Wily Mo Pena stuff is heating up as well.

 

[D-Lite]

Jose Bautista is a different example. Quite old, finally started kicking (_*_) at age 29 last year after 4 years of meh. He is a rare case, but you never know if someone will make it and seemingly worthless cards can be worth something. And people are into Sam Fuld now, who turns 30 in November, after not much of a career and relative obscurity.

Basically, if anything happens with the guy, sell it off in 6 lots of 10 at even $5/lot, double your money.

 

[jbhofmann]

If thats what you are into- I hear Sean Burroughs and Wily Mo Pena stuff is heating up as well.

Hey, back off

 

[XdanX]

Gracecollector- That was on the other day! I do love that flick.

Its not exactly what im "into" but for 15 bucks its not a huge gamble. Even if he makes a couple "me among boys" or some hot sheet attention might make them a quarter. Even this thread might make 1 more person pay attention to him.

 

[jcmint]

Been making money on old prospects since 97 chrome. If they come up and make a splash there cards will see a jump. Maybe a little maybe alot but jump they will.

 

[Adam G]

Sure, every year we see some guy come up and play well for a month or so, but the name of the game is hype. Without it, you'll never make your money back. And in this case we're talking turning $15 into $30 (minus shipping costs and FleaBay fees, so more like $15 into $25 or less). You can make that much on a hyped up prospect just by timing call-ups and haggling with sellers/buyers on BIN prices.

The real problem w/ "old" prospects is they usually don't have the capacity to take their game up a notch and succeed long term at the next level. For every Ryan Howard or Jose Bautista, there's 100+ AAAA that will never amount to anything. So, let's say you buy $15 worth of cards for 100 "old" prospects, you would have to have a 50% success rate to break even, but odds are you'll make money on 5-10 of them IF you sell at the right time and IF prices go high enough to beat fees and shipping costs. In my mind, these types of "investments" are ill-advised. You'd be better off buying the top 10 prospects in November, and double your money in February right before Spring Training.

 

[Casebreaker]

Short term yes you can make a few dollars off it but long term they do not hold value unless you have a career like ichiro who started at 27.

 

[XdanX]

After reading all the posts I propose this. Why is it better to buy a player who is 17-20 years old who are "loaded with potential" "have amazing tools" with equal opportunity to flop. Sure for every 20 yr old who blasts through the minors and wins the ROY there is a F-Mart, Mo Bruce, Ryan Anderson, Bryan Bullington and I can go on with those names till next christmas.

 

[shakedown420]

If you are 28 years old, you are no longer a prospect but a AAAA player

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

If you are 28 years old, you are no longer a prospect but a AAAA player

Depends what one hopes a prospect will accomplish...most people hope a prospect becomes a first-ballot HOFer and their prices reflect that potential. Of course most prospects are lucky to get to even be a AAAA player!

pros·pect noun/?präs?pekt/?
prospects, plural
1.The possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring
- training that offered a prospect of continuous employment
2.A mental picture of a future or anticipated event
3.Chances or opportunities for success or wealth
- the poor prospects for the steel industry
4.A person regarded as a potential customer or subscriber to something
- clients deemed likely prospects for active party membership
5.A person regarded as likely to succeed, esp. in a sporting event
- a great young pitching prospect

 

[Original Boski]

If thats what you are into- I hear Sean Burroughs and Wily Mo Pena stuff is heating up as well.

Hey, back off

Hey how much?!

 

[DaClyde]

Paging Scott McClain, Craig Brazell and Terrmel Sledge. Please report to Japan for the rest of your career.