BA PROSPECT HOT SHEET - 4/16

[Jaypers]

Three Jays! Don't believe that's ever happened before.

And none of them were Drabek, Wallace or Stewart. Good system in the making.

Looking forward to Marisnick's debut this summer.

 

[Zymco]

Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but I had been trying to pick up some Montgomery and hey just started out so good the buying is going to have to stop. I only have two xfractors and a refractor so I ddin't get too far. My prospect handbook came a little bit late this year for me, but the write up on Montgomery that Baseball America was one of the most interesting in the book, obviously he's not a top five prospect but the things that they wrote about him, in my mind are things that would propel him to be an ace in major league baseball for a long time. They talked about him being a competitor and doing anything to win and get better, if I am an investing that's someone I would like to bet one. Obviously injuries are uncontrollable, but I think Montgomery will start at the big league level one day and thats the point where that competitive fire comes in. And that mid-high 90's fastball from the left side comes out.

 

[braden]

Three Jays! Don't believe that's ever happened before.

And none of them were Drabek, Wallace or Stewart. Good system in the making.

Looking forward to Marisnick's debut this summer.

Stewart won't be making many hot lists if he keeps throwing like he did last night.

The Rolen and Halladay trades really injected the organization. This year's draft is huge. With so many high picks, and apparently a $15MM budget for the draft, they could vault into the top third pretty quickly.

I'm excited for Marisnick. I wanted him to sign more than any of the guys who didn't (though Paxson was the only guy I really cared about from the unsigned trio; they made the right call on Eliopoulos).

 

[Jaypers]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

 

[All The Hype]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Even though he threw in the "not that they were all his fault" preface, they obviously still held those runs against him.

 

[Wes]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Even though he threw in the "not that they were all his fault" preface, they obviously still held those runs against him.

The idea is that his outing wasn't as impressive as some others. As I see it, everybody knows about Strasburg, putting other players who had comparable or better weeks on the hotlist provides better content.

 

[braden]

I can dig that answer. A bunch of UER from a pitcher can be indicative of both poor defence (obviously) and an inability to shut the door/pick up his fielders after an error. Obviously one instance means nothing (and Badler confirms this) but even if runs aren't earned, they can show a pitcher wasn't at his best.

 

[cgilmo]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Even though he threw in the "not that they were all his fault" preface, they obviously still held those runs against him.

The gap between making the hot sheet and not making it is EXTREMELY slim. When one pitcher didn't have the unearned runs, and another did, i suppose that could tip the scale at least in perception.

To say you "lost some respect" over this is a bit of an overreaction.

 

[Jaypers]

Anyone besides me not surprised cardboardbeautys raised the BIN of his Monty Super from $3k to $3500?

 

[DaveH]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Even though he threw in the "not that they were all his fault" preface, they obviously still held those runs against him.

The idea is that his outing wasn't as impressive as some others. As I see it, everybody knows about Strasburg, putting other players who had comparable or better weeks on the hotlist provides better content.

yep. to be on the hotlist, you have to dominate... while it was for sure a great start, there were 'hotter' pitchers this past week. nothing to get upset over

 

[All The Hype]

Badler played the unearned run card. ::facepalm::


Ike (Pittsburgh): I'm curious as to why Stephen Strasburg didn't make the cut, after a very good AA debut. Can you explain?

Ben Badler: Not that they were all his fault, but the four runs in five innings didn't help. He's still the best prospect in the minors. I don't think he'll miss too many more Hot Sheets.

Only 1 of those runs was "his fault", FYI.

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Even though he threw in the "not that they were all his fault" preface, they obviously still held those runs against him.

The gap between making the hot sheet and not making it is EXTREMELY slim. When one pitcher didn't have the unearned runs, and another did, i suppose that could tip the scale at least in perception.

To say you "lost some respect" over this is a bit of an overreaction.

Alright I can agree with you that one person with UER and one without, all other things equal, it is obvious who would make the list and who would not.

But let's just remember...

When you look at a pitcher's stats, you look at EARNED Run Average. This is indicative of how good a pitcher is at doing his job: keeping the other team from scoring runs.

A "Run Average" stat doesn't exist because it doesn't brings in too many outside factors that the pitcher has little or no control over.

If you can't tell, I've done a lot of pitching on teams that didn't necessarily play great defense so I can relate to pitchers who don't get help from their fielders. It's a touchy topic for me and one to which I often overreact :twisted:

 

[cgilmo]

Anyone besides me not surprised cardboardbeautys raised the BIN of his Monty Super from $3k to $3500?

he wants 2k


and will probably get it sometime this season


Monty should get a ton of hype this year based on what Ben Badler has been saying.

 

[All The Hype]

I was waiting for the MiLB Performance thread today to mention it, but Badler just stated in the chat that Wilmer Flores has zero strikeouts through 33 ABs and 8 games.

I thought this was very impressive when I saw it earlier this morning.

 

[ballerskrip]

I LOVED Reading this:

Matt (St. Charles, IL): Carlos Santana appears to be a absolute beast. How do you compare his offensive ceiling to Buster Posey? Is in the same ballpark as Jesus Montero? What do you consider his ceiling to be? thanks for taking my question!

Ben Badler: Posey's skill set is similar to Santana's. They're both going to be all-star catchers with high OBPs and solid defense, but Santana should hit for more power. I know in the past I've said I'd give the slight edge to Posey, but right now Santana's slightly ahead of Posey. Ask me again in a month and I might change my mind. Whatever, doesn't really matter--those guys are both going to be stars and neither of them should take long to adjust to big league pitching. Montero's three years younger and has the highest offensive ceiling, but if Santana turns into the best of the three from a purely offensive standpoint, I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[braden]

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Not so fast. Unearned runs can come in any number of ways and can tell you things about a pitcher. I think it was Prospectus that did an interesting study a couple of years ago showing that pitchers who gave up a large number of UER one year suffered from highers ERAs the next.

Take these two scenarios for example:

1- Bases loaded, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. 3 runs score. All unearned. Next batter retired.

2- Nobody on, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. Runner reaches second. Next five batters reach base. Three runs score. All unearned.

You can't tell me both scenarios are the same. The pitcher in scenario 2 fared much worse yet still comes out unscathed.

 

[Russ S.]

Anyone besides me not surprised cardboardbeautys raised the BIN of his Monty Super from $3k to $3500?

Does anything surprise you about that slimbucket?

 

[DaveH]

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Not so fast. Unearned runs can come in any number of ways and can tell you things about a pitcher. I think it was Prospectus that did an interesting study a couple of years ago showing that pitchers who gave up a large number of UER one year suffered from highers ERAs the next.

Take these two scenarios for example:

1- Bases loaded, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. 3 runs score. All unearned. Next batter retired.

2- Nobody on, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. Runner reaches second. Next five batters reach base. Three runs score. All unearned.

You can't tell me both scenarios are the same. The pitcher in scenario 2 fared much worse yet still comes out unscathed.

yep. this is because ERA is an outdated metric... still valuable, but not completely "indicative of how good a pitcher is at doing his job" as All the Hype is suggesting

 

[braden]

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Not so fast. Unearned runs can come in any number of ways and can tell you things about a pitcher. I think it was Prospectus that did an interesting study a couple of years ago showing that pitchers who gave up a large number of UER one year suffered from highers ERAs the next.

Take these two scenarios for example:

1- Bases loaded, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. 3 runs score. All unearned. Next batter retired.

2- Nobody on, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. Runner reaches second. Next five batters reach base. Three runs score. All unearned.

You can't tell me both scenarios are the same. The pitcher in scenario 2 fared much worse yet still comes out unscathed.

yep. this is because ERA is an outdated metric... still valuable, but not completely "indicative of how good a pitcher is at doing his job" as All the Hype is suggesting

That was my next point. ERA doesn't tell you much at all about the defence behind a pitcher. I rarely, if ever, look at a guy's ERA anymore. FIP, with its flaws, is much better.

 

[All The Hype]

I just lost some respect for Baseball America.

People who try to say that unearned runs are the pitchers fault don't know baseball whatsoever.

Not so fast. Unearned runs can come in any number of ways and can tell you things about a pitcher. I think it was Prospectus that did an interesting study a couple of years ago showing that pitchers who gave up a large number of UER one year suffered from highers ERAs the next.

Take these two scenarios for example:

1- Bases loaded, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. 3 runs score. All unearned. Next batter retired.

2- Nobody on, two out. Fly ball. Dropped. Runner reaches second. Next five batters reach base. Three runs score. All unearned.

You can't tell me both scenarios are the same. The pitcher in scenario 2 fared much worse yet still comes out unscathed.

yep. this is because ERA is an outdated metric... still valuable, but not completely "indicative of how good a pitcher is at doing his job" as All the Hype is suggesting

I did not say that ERA is completely indicative of how good a pitcher is...but I will stand by the ERA statistic as the best stat available (that the average baseball fan easily recognizes) to show how well a pitcher keeps the other team from scoring runs.

What stat is better?

 

[rico08]

What stat is better?

Can we merge this with your soon to be created "Is ERA an accurate measure for pitching performance" thread?

Brad Mills' change up is goooood.