Baseball Prospectus Updated Top 5 Prospects

[Keyser Soze]

With almost zero fanfare his gem chrome base sell in the 60's. that with almost no real buzz. If you're talking from card values, its not a huge leap that its a 100 dollar chrome with some press...

I've been adding Lindor Chrome's as the budget allows, he's a GREAT buy right now at $30-35 for a base and $40-45 for a refractor. Pretty unheard of to be able to get a top 5 guy at those prices

 

[phillyfan0417]

I've been adding Lindor Chrome's as the budget allows, he's a GREAT buy right now at $30-35 for a base and $40-45 for a refractor. Pretty unheard of to be able to get a top 5 guy at those prices

Smart man. I've been adding gem base where i can but dont really want to increase my avg. of 39 dollars a gem. I believe i now have 46 gems.

He is never going to be a 25 HR guy but i believe he'll get into the range of 15 or so once he adds a little more to his frame. He will also play this entire season as a teenager so there is no real hurry.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Smart man. I've been adding gem base where i can but dont really want to increase my avg. of 39 dollars a gem. I believe i now have 46 gems

Gem base autos? 46!?!? Jesus, man, you're gonna make a KILLING on those.

 

[phillyfan0417]

Gem base autos? 46!?!? Jesus, man, you're gonna make a KILLING on those.

I hope so...

 

[Keyser Soze]

Anyone willing to PM me the whole list? It'd be greatly appreciated

 

[sigma_chi]

Saw where Gregory Polanco checked in at #12 ...with the caveat that he very well could crack the top 10 at the end of th eyear. Didn't see full list though so dont know much else.

 

[All The Hype]

Smart man. I've been adding gem base where i can but dont really want to increase my avg. of 39 dollars a gem. I believe i now have 46 gems.

He is never going to be a 25 HR guy but i believe he'll get into the range of 15 or so once he adds a little more to his frame. He will also play this entire season as a teenager so there is no real hurry.

I have to say, I still don't understand the love for Lindor at all. There's no way this guy belongs in the top 10, let alone the top 5 IMO. Not trying to be argumentative, but just looking for some good discussion-- how does he project to be in the 15 homer range when he has never shown power like that? He has hit 7 career homers in almost 800 professional at bats. He is 5'11" 175 according to MiLB.com and from what I've read his swing is too level to ever make him a legit power threat even if he were to fill out and put on some muscle.

To me he is a very good bet to make the Majors and be an everyday shortstop thanks to his glove, plate discipline, and speed, but the top 5 prospects should be reserved for the guys who are future perennial all star and MVP candidates. I don't ever see Lindor being more than a fringe all star at best, and even that's a stretch.


Someone please enlighten me. I don't get why people like him so much (ESPECIALLY as a card investment) and would like to understand where it's coming from.

 

[phillyfan0417]

I have to say, I still don't understand the love for Lindor at all. There's no way this guy belongs in the top 10, let alone the top 5 IMO. Not trying to be argumentative, but just looking for some good discussion-- how does he project to be in the 15 homer range when he has never shown power like that? He has hit 7 career homers in almost 800 professional at bats. He is 5'11" 175 according to MiLB.com and from what I've read his swing is too level to ever make him a legit power threat even if he were to fill out and put on some muscle.

To me he is a very good bet to make the Majors and be an everyday shortstop thanks to his glove, plate discipline, and speed, but the top 5 prospects should be reserved for the guys who are future perennial all star and MVP candidates. I don't ever see Lindor being more than a fringe all star at best, and even that's a stretch.


Someone please enlighten me. I don't get why people like him so much (ESPECIALLY as a card investment) and would like to understand where it's coming from.

Since the sample size is small and other than his power tool is behind his other skills, I'd rather you tell me what in his skill set doesnt translate to an above average MLB player? Other than the possibility he doesnt hit home runs, what other parts of his game dont you like or make you think he's a fringe ML'er?

 

[Keyser Soze]

I have to say, I still don't understand the love for Lindor at all. There's no way this guy belongs in the top 10, let alone the top 5 IMO. Not trying to be argumentative, but just looking for some good discussion-- how does he project to be in the 15 homer range when he has never shown power like that? He has hit 7 career homers in almost 800 professional at bats. He is 5'11" 175 according to MiLB.com and from what I've read his swing is too level to ever make him a legit power threat even if he were to fill out and put on some muscle.

To me he is a very good bet to make the Majors and be an everyday shortstop thanks to his glove, plate discipline, and speed, but the top 5 prospects should be reserved for the guys who are future perennial all star and MVP candidates. I don't ever see Lindor being more than a fringe all star at best, and even that's a stretch.


Someone please enlighten me. I don't get why people like him so much (ESPECIALLY as a card investment) and would like to understand where it's coming from.

Hitting over .300 with a 1:1 BB-K ratio as a 19-year old in High A is impressive. Then add in 18 steals (only caught 4 times) while playing gold glove caliber shortstop. I don't know if he'll ever develop 15-HR power but he doesn't need it to be an elite SS

 

[All The Hype]

Since the sample size is small and other than his power tool is behind his other skills, I'd rather you tell me what in his skill set doesnt translate to an above average MLB player? Other than the possibility he doesnt hit home runs, what other parts of his game dont you like or make you think he's a fringe ML'er?

I said I think he's a very good bet to eventually be an everyday Major Leaguer, and maybe a fringe All Star at his ceiling. I'm just saying having zero power to speak of makes him much less of an impact player. He reminds me of Omar Vizquel offensively...a guy who will steal some bases and walk about as much as he strikes out, but also a guy who has a career .688 OPS.

My argument is not that he won't be a Major Leaguer, but rather, that a player like that should never be mentioned in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball.

 

[phillyfan0417]

I said I think he's a very good bet to eventually be an everyday Major Leaguer, and maybe a fringe All Star at his ceiling. I'm just saying having zero power to speak of makes him much less of an impact player. He reminds me of Omar Vizquel offensively...a guy who will steal some bases and walk about as much as he strikes out, but also a guy who has a career .688 OPS.

My argument is not that he won't be a Major Leaguer, but rather, that a player like that should never be mentioned in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball.

Its kind of cherry picking to say he has a .688 OPS without pointing out its a full 100 points higher at an advanced level with most of his other numbers showing that upward trend.

So at this point, i'm ok with watching his development and saying I told you so later...

 

[SydBarrett]

I would be a fool if I didn't say I wish I had my Lindor stash still, I sold about a year too early, but I made double my money and that's what counts right?

I was really high on the kid early but never could have dreamed of him having the status he has right now, I have to agree with the posters above I just don't see his prices continuing to raise. He is going to be a gold glove shortstop, and hit .300 multiple times in his career, but this hobby loves power (and crazy speed: see Billy Hamilton) and I just don't feel like .320 w/12 HRs is going to get that much hobby love, especially considering he plays for Cleveland. The way I see it, he's going to have to be Derek Jeter 2.0 for his cards that much more love. I just don't see him being a $120 base card. That's just me.

 

[All The Hype]

Its kind of cherry picking to say he has a .688 OPS without pointing out its a full 100 points higher at an advanced level with most of his other numbers showing that upward trend.

So at this point, i'm ok with watching his development and saying I told you so later...

Ha fair enough, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if that's the way it turns out, but at this point I don't see it. We'll see!

 

[phillyfan0417]

just to clarify, i'm talking about his gems getting to 100...

 

[jcmint]

He will have to do something pretty special to get to a cnote/per
I am invested in him but I think the time to sell is getting very close.
100 base 9.5 are usually for the power potential guys. Billy Hamilton stole how many bases and just sniffed 100.00
Whoever is saying 12-15 homeruns I say good luck what he has showed up to this point sure dont look like it.

 

[sigma_chi]

Is it just me or does it seem like Lindor has a couple hundred cards already? Talk about oversaturation....could be a reason why his chrome autos are so low compared to his prospect status.

 

[Wes]

Alen Hanson > Lindor Imo

The value of a future elite SS > the value of a future 2B.

 

[Keyser Soze]

I would be a fool if I didn't say I wish I had my Lindor stash still, I sold about a year too early, but I made double my money and that's what counts right?

I was really high on the kid early but never could have dreamed of him having the status he has right now, I have to agree with the posters above I just don't see his prices continuing to raise. He is going to be a gold glove shortstop, and hit .300 multiple times in his career, but this hobby loves power (and crazy speed: see Billy Hamilton) and I just don't feel like .320 w/12 HRs is going to get that much hobby love, especially considering he plays for Cleveland. The way I see it, he's going to have to be Derek Jeter 2.0 for his cards that much more love. I just don't see him being a $120 base card. That's just me.

I agree with the last part, very few guys hit a $120 base card, but I think he's a bargain at $35 right now. I could easily see him getting up around $50-60 at some point, perhaps just based on the fact that he seems like he'll be close to the top 5 on most prospect rankings next offseason

 

[sigma_chi]

I agree with the last part, very few guys hit a $120 base card, but I think he's a bargain at $35 right now. I could easily see him getting up around $50-60 at some point, perhaps just based on the fact that he seems like he'll be close to the top 5 on most prospect rankings next offseason

I bought a bunch of Jay Bruce 2005 TCUH Autos because I thought that he had a good chance to be the #1 prospect entering the 08 season...I made good money on them too. I do thinkl, no matter how you feel about Lindor's future, that you can make some serious coin this offseason on him.

 

[chompsmcgee]

For those hung up on Lindor's power and assume his value has limited upside I'd take a closer look at Jurickson Profar. While no two players are created equal and possessing 4 of the same tools doesn't mean they have exactly the same skills, the skill set is pretty similar. Switch-hitting SS with cannon arms, smooth D, solid speed and a very good hit tool. Profar has more power presently, and likely in the long run, but in the end it's probably as close as a 20 hr/yr guy vs a 15. And it's not like Lindor can't sell out for power - he was the Aflac All American Home Run Derby champion at Petco in 2010. But we can agree it's likely never going to be a huge part of his game.

I am aware Profar is less than a year older than Lindor and already in the majors but he also had more pro experience under his belt thanks to signing at 16. And Cleveland is not Texas. No comp is perfect but adding this as some food for thought.