Beckett's break of 09 BDP

[Wes]

I appreciate the handful of names that were submitted to my question about which players were missing from the checklist that made this checklist so poor in some people's minds.

I agree that some of those would have been nice

I also accept the fact that not every single stud can make the checklist
Some cried brutal checklist last year and what we saw was one of the best ever in BDP history. There is some really nice potential in that list of autos


Why not an A+++ checklist??? There must be some reason why (maybe money...actually probably money (Strasburg, Ackley, Tate) although there are some odd-ball/different reasons why some don't agree to card contracts ---- ie wasn't there a top prospect last year who refused to be a Razor exclusive due to his childhood dream to have a Topps card)

Other than the Chrome autos, the base checklist in last year's BDP was pretty awful as I recall. Chrome Autos alone can't make it the "best ever in BDP history".

---yep.

Last years non-auto checklist is still one of the worst ever. Porcello, and dassit

Agreed, but look at what a strong base checklist did for 2007 BCDP. Wouldn't you rather have a strong autograph checklist?

I don't think that was his point. For a product to be in the "best ever" category, it has to have both. A set can survive on a monster auto list, not on a monster base set. But it can't be the best without both

Actually for it to be "best ever" it just has to be better than all of the other releases for that set. I'd say 08 is right there with 05.

 

[aarne13]

I'm pretty disappointed that Chad Jenkins got dropped from the auto list. I guess I'll settle with the Tristar Jenkins auto. They even dropped one of the Jays prospects Bryson Namba, leaving Goins and Egan Smith as the only Jays. :?

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

[quote="kentuckyderby":3o4owgdl]I appreciate the handful of names that were submitted to my question about which players were missing from the checklist that made this checklist so poor in some people's minds.

I agree that some of those would have been nice

I also accept the fact that not every single stud can make the checklist
Some cried brutal checklist last year and what we saw was one of the best ever in BDP history. There is some really nice potential in that list of autos


Why not an A+++ checklist??? There must be some reason why (maybe money...actually probably money (Strasburg, Ackley, Tate) although there are some odd-ball/different reasons why some don't agree to card contracts ---- ie wasn't there a top prospect last year who refused to be a Razor exclusive due to his childhood dream to have a Topps card)

Other than the Chrome autos, the base checklist in last year's BDP was pretty awful as I recall. Chrome Autos alone can't make it the "best ever in BDP history".

---yep.

Last years non-auto checklist is still one of the worst ever. Porcello, and dassit

Agreed, but look at what a strong base checklist did for 2007 BCDP. Wouldn't you rather have a strong autograph checklist?

I don't think that was his point. For a product to be in the "best ever" category, it has to have both. A set can survive on a monster auto list, not on a monster base set. But it can't be the best without both

Actually for it to be "best ever" it just has to be better than all of the other releases for that set. I'd say 08 is right there with 05.[/quote:3o4owgdl]

Are we evaluating as of today? Are we evaluating at 1 month after original release? That changes a lot.

 

[Wes]

[quote="BowmanChromeAddict":2m29rc8u][quote="kentuckyderby":2m29rc8u]I appreciate the handful of names that were submitted to my question about which players were missing from the checklist that made this checklist so poor in some people's minds.

I agree that some of those would have been nice

I also accept the fact that not every single stud can make the checklist
Some cried brutal checklist last year and what we saw was one of the best ever in BDP history. There is some really nice potential in that list of autos


Why not an A+++ checklist??? There must be some reason why (maybe money...actually probably money (Strasburg, Ackley, Tate) although there are some odd-ball/different reasons why some don't agree to card contracts ---- ie wasn't there a top prospect last year who refused to be a Razor exclusive due to his childhood dream to have a Topps card)

Other than the Chrome autos, the base checklist in last year's BDP was pretty awful as I recall. Chrome Autos alone can't make it the "best ever in BDP history".

---yep.

Last years non-auto checklist is still one of the worst ever. Porcello, and dassit

Agreed, but look at what a strong base checklist did for 2007 BCDP. Wouldn't you rather have a strong autograph checklist?

I don't think that was his point. For a product to be in the "best ever" category, it has to have both. A set can survive on a monster auto list, not on a monster base set. But it can't be the best without both

Actually for it to be "best ever" it just has to be better than all of the other releases for that set. I'd say 08 is right there with 05.[/quote:2m29rc8u]

Are we evaluating as of today? Are we evaluating at 1 month after original release? That changes a lot.[/quote:2m29rc8u]

Over the duration of the product. I'll contend that 08 has been at or above release cost since release - most of the time above, all while the economy crumbled. 07 held for some time as well, but has seen a precipitous drop in the last year. I doubt many will argue they would take a case of 06 or 07 over a case of 08. I'd take a case of 09 ahead of 06 or 07.

 

[gonzagacubs]

Are assuming that the bowman auto is in addition to the chrome auto? Or taking it's place?

If it is in addition to the chrome auto, then what is everyone bitching about? I swear that people are just searching for something to complain about.

Skrip

Definitely have to agree with the bolded statement.

 

[mredsox89]

[quote="kentuckyderby":1vd5os6f]I appreciate the handful of names that were submitted to my question about which players were missing from the checklist that made this checklist so poor in some people's minds.

I agree that some of those would have been nice

I also accept the fact that not every single stud can make the checklist
Some cried brutal checklist last year and what we saw was one of the best ever in BDP history. There is some really nice potential in that list of autos


Why not an A+++ checklist??? There must be some reason why (maybe money...actually probably money (Strasburg, Ackley, Tate) although there are some odd-ball/different reasons why some don't agree to card contracts ---- ie wasn't there a top prospect last year who refused to be a Razor exclusive due to his childhood dream to have a Topps card)

Other than the Chrome autos, the base checklist in last year's BDP was pretty awful as I recall. Chrome Autos alone can't make it the "best ever in BDP history".

---yep.

Last years non-auto checklist is still one of the worst ever. Porcello, and dassit

Agreed, but look at what a strong base checklist did for 2007 BCDP. Wouldn't you rather have a strong autograph checklist?

I don't think that was his point. For a product to be in the "best ever" category, it has to have both. A set can survive on a monster auto list, not on a monster base set. But it can't be the best without both

Actually for it to be "best ever" it just has to be better than all of the other releases for that set. I'd say 08 is right there with 05.[/quote:1vd5os6f]

Point taken. Maybe best ever wasn't the right wording for what i was trying to say.

 

[brianga26]

Dear Topps:

Thank you for the swift kick in the nads.


Sincerely,

your fans..

P.S. Thank you for making Minor League at least...

 

[allstars]

Dear Topps:

Thank you for the swift kick in the nads.


Sincerely,

your fans..

P.S. Thank you for making Minor League at least...

Do you guys think Topps Minor League could be better than BDP?

 

[Superfractor]

I've gone through the list twice: I can't find Rex Brothers. I CAN'T FIND REX BROTHERS.

 

[blanning71]

Ya know, I'm still gonna sit back and watch all the nuts break the mess outta this product upon release and post on the box break boards. Every year there is a thread about how its gonna suck but when some of the nice cards start popping, pandemonium ensues! Lets get it on!

Its gonna be a great couple of holiday weeks for me as well as many others on here as we see loads of this stuff busted. It should provide for some quality cards popping up.

 

[beefycheddar]

I've gone through the list twice: I can't find Rex Brothers. I CAN'T FIND REX BROTHERS.

He isn't in it, or you'd have competition for his Super.

 

[kentuckyderby]

Outside players who already have Razor/UD USA/or AFLAC cards (AND STRASBURG/D Ackley) who is missing from the checklist that is sooooooo huge to the success of checklist?

Here are a few names.

Brett Jackson
Shelby Miller
Nick Franklin
Slade Heathcott

and of course, the Boras contingent.

ill add jacob turner

Turner and Tate already with UD USA but agree that those with be nice chrome auto

 

[Great Dealz Rob]

I don't get why everyone needs to get all bent out of shape. We all know that it is still 1 CHROME AUTO PER BOX. These Bowman Autos obviously are extra hits. In the Beckett blog they broke a Hobby box and they were printed on that checklist. They might be retail only, but why appear on that checklist then? I highly doubt they are retail only and are just extra like last years Longoria, Kershaw and others. If they are retail only it's no problem, I don't buy retail. I swear, no matter how great or bad the product is there will always be people that have something negative to say. Regardless of the amount of product I am opening or not, I view this as a positive. It's extra value included in the product, not value taken away from the product. Yes, there could be more included to bolster this set, but the Auto checklist is way above average. Topps also included more AFLAC Autos as well from the original prelim checklist. So whether you are ripping or not, stop complaining until the dust settles. Look how cheap you can get a case of '07 Draft now. That was the end all greatest set ever back then huh? Each product has it's own niche. Only time will tell if this product is accepted or not. In the meantime when it's new and hot SELL SELL SELL. This is my opinion and it may not be a popular one, but most of the people complaining probably aren't even opening any. I am opening and not saying a word. I'm not trying to protect my investment or bolster it either. I have already pre-sold of the majority of the sets from my break. The rest will be gravy so to say. Sorry for the long read/rant. Just had to get that off of my chest.

 

[beefycheddar]

I don't get why everyone needs to get all bent out of shape. We all know that it is still 1 CHROME AUTO PER BOX. These Bowman Autos obviously are extra hits. In the Beckett blog they broke a Hobby box and they were printed on that checklist. They might be retail only, but why appear on that checklist then? I highly doubt they are retail only and are just extra like last years Longoria, Kershaw and others. If they are retail only it's no problem, I don't buy retail. I swear, no matter how great or bad the product is there will always be people that have something negative to say. Regardless of the amount of product I am opening or not, I view this as a positive. It's extra value included in the product, not value taken away from the product. Yes, there could be more included to bolster this set, but the Auto checklist is way above average. Topps also included more AFLAC Autos as well from the original prelim checklist. So whether you are ripping or not, stop complaining until the dust settles. Look how cheap you can get a case of '07 Draft now. That was the end all greatest set ever back then huh? Each product has it's own niche. Only time will tell if this product is accepted or not. In the meantime when it's new and hot SELL SELL SELL. This is my opinion and it may not be a popular one, but most of the people complaining probably aren't even opening any. I am opening and not saying a word. I'm not trying to protect my investment or bolster it either. I have already pre-sold of the majority of the sets from my break. The rest will be gravy so to say. Sorry for the long read/rant. Just had to get that off of my chest.

It was an error that they got put on the checklist I would guess.

 

[Messier2]

Not sure if this was mentioned since I did not have to time to read through all the threads but I'm 99% sure that the non-chrome autos are RETAIL only! Sorta like the SOTF ones from 08 BDP!

That's fine with me if that's the case!

 

[bradical]

Is everyone just buying BDP on spec to flip it? I guess that's why the hobby is sinking faster than Tiger Woods creditability.

 

[cgilmo]

Is everyone just buying BDP on spec to flip it? I guess that's why the hobby is sinking faster than Tiger Woods creditability.

it's only falling because people are saying it's falling.


It's a confidence economy.

 

[marterburn]

well, if the extras are retail, then I'm content with my purchase. but i'll beleive it when i see it.

still a little nervous.

 

[jkeen01]

Well, I won't completely dump on Topps, but this is a pretty weak overall product, at least upon release for case busters. Here are my observations:

THE BAD

- Topps took out Junichi Tazawa (now Mike Carp) and Jake Fox (now Jeff Gray) from the RC set. From a casebreakers perspective, those were the top two RC's and would have brought in some pretty good money.
- The base draft set has only 15 of the top 100 draft picks. For those that said the 2008 base set was weak, I don't necessarily disagree, but it did have 25 of the top 100 draft picks (plus good prospects outside the top 100 such as Grossman, Danks, Galloway, Strange-Gordon) and you never know how some of these guys might develop.
- The Autograph set doesn't have any card that will consistently sell for more than $20-25 after the initial release period. It does have some overall depth, but no one that can carry the product and keep case prices up like last year.
- Topps missed out on more than their usual share of top draft picks. They did not include 24 of the top 50 draft picks. Obviously they missed out on a bunch last year because of Razor, but they didn't have any competition this year and still missed out on half of the top 50 picks (where arguably most of the talent from a draft comes).

THE GOOD

- Production is down, which will make it easier to pull some of the Autographed parallels, but because the base set has such few big names, it won't do you much good to pull base parallels.
- The Autograph set does have a lot of potential, but no one that I would say is a really big name right now. We don't really know what will happen with most of these guys, as many are High School draftees. The 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set had an average draft position of 33 with 30 total autographs. This set has an average draft position of 26, but with only 22 total autographs. So I would say the 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set was on par or close to the 2009 Bowman Draft Autograph set at the time they were released. And those guys haven't really developed yet, although they still have time.

This is only the second year since BDP was manufactured that I won't be busting any at release (2006 was the other year and that was only because case pre-sales were a fiasco and impossible to get at a reasonable price). I honestly think that casebreakers will be luck to average $40-45 a box on this year's product. I barely made $60 a box last year on BDP and that was with hitting several huge Gold/Orange Autographs. Given the current state of card-collecting and what we've seen with recent releases (such as 2009 Bowman Chrome), I would expect case prices to fall into the $500-600 range within a month or so. The Bowman Draft name might help prop up case prices for a while though, so I would say that $500 is an absolute floor in the near-term and case prices will more likely be in the $550-600 range for a while until we start to see some of the Autograph guys struggle in the minors. For this product to be successful in the long-term, you really need about 6-7 of the Autograph guys to become some of the top prospects in the game and I just don't know if that will happen.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Bowman is certainly not the hobby but a small part of it - the hobby has many options - although one does naturally associate Bowman with flipping...and with 'drama' like this over the last several years.

Is everyone just buying BDP on spec to flip it? I guess that's why the hobby is sinking faster than Tiger Woods creditability.