Beckett's break of 09 BDP

[BowmanChromeAddict]

[quote="Mudcatsfan":xtxpbc64][quote="BowmanChromeAddict":xtxpbc64][quote="kentuckyderby":xtxpbc64]I appreciate the handful of names that were submitted to my question about which players were missing from the checklist that made this checklist so poor in some people's minds.

I agree that some of those would have been nice

I also accept the fact that not every single stud can make the checklist
Some cried brutal checklist last year and what we saw was one of the best ever in BDP history. There is some really nice potential in that list of autos


Why not an A+++ checklist??? There must be some reason why (maybe money...actually probably money (Strasburg, Ackley, Tate) although there are some odd-ball/different reasons why some don't agree to card contracts ---- ie wasn't there a top prospect last year who refused to be a Razor exclusive due to his childhood dream to have a Topps card)

Other than the Chrome autos, the base checklist in last year's BDP was pretty awful as I recall. Chrome Autos alone can't make it the "best ever in BDP history".

---yep.

Last years non-auto checklist is still one of the worst ever. Porcello, and dassit

Agreed, but look at what a strong base checklist did for 2007 BCDP. Wouldn't you rather have a strong autograph checklist?

I don't think that was his point. For a product to be in the "best ever" category, it has to have both. A set can survive on a monster auto list, not on a monster base set. But it can't be the best without both

Actually for it to be "best ever" it just has to be better than all of the other releases for that set. I'd say 08 is right there with 05.[/quote:xtxpbc64]

Are we evaluating as of today? Are we evaluating at 1 month after original release? That changes a lot.[/quote:xtxpbc64]

Over the duration of the product. I'll contend that 08 has been at or above release cost since release - most of the time above, all while the economy crumbled. 07 held for some time as well, but has seen a precipitous drop in the last year. I doubt many will argue they would take a case of 06 or 07 over a case of 08. I'd take a case of 09 ahead of 06 or 07.[/quote:xtxpbc64]

You would now, but would you 1 month after release? 3 months after release? I contend that you would not. I don't think its fair to evaluate a prospect product over the long haul. 02 BDP was a behemoth...but you're throwing it away now because there's very little left of value or potential 7 years later. If you're going to fairly evaluate a product pick a point equidistant from the original release and judge it from that point. It puts everything into perspective fairly.

 

[masonphillip]

Well, I won't completely dump on Topps, but this is a pretty weak overall product, at least upon release for case busters. Here are my observations:

THE BAD

- Topps took out Junichi Tazawa (now Mike Carp) and Jake Fox (now Jeff Gray) from the RC set. From a casebreakers perspective, those were the top two RC's and would have brought in some pretty good money.
- The base draft set has only 15 of the top 100 draft picks. For those that said the 2008 base set was weak, I don't necessarily disagree, but it did have 25 of the top 100 draft picks (plus good prospects outside the top 100 such as Grossman, Danks, Galloway, Strange-Gordon) and you never know how some of these guys might develop.
- The Autograph set doesn't have any card that will consistently sell for more than $20-25 after the initial release period. It does have some overall depth, but no one that can carry the product and keep case prices up like last year.
- Topps missed out on more than their usual share of top draft picks. They did not include 24 of the top 50 draft picks. Obviously they missed out on a bunch last year because of Razor, but they didn't have any competition this year and still missed out on half of the top 50 picks (where arguably most of the talent from a draft comes).

THE GOOD

- Production is down, which will make it easier to pull some of the Autographed parallels, but because the base set has such few big names, it won't do you much good to pull base parallels.
- The Autograph set does have a lot of potential, but no one that I would say is a really big name right now. We don't really know what will happen with most of these guys, as many are High School draftees. The 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set had an average draft position of 33 with 30 total autographs. This set has an average draft position of 26, but with only 22 total autographs. So I would say the 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set was on par or close to the 2009 Bowman Draft Autograph set at the time they were released. And those guys haven't really developed yet, although they still have time.

This is only the second year since BDP was manufactured that I won't be busting any at release (2006 was the other year and that was only because case pre-sales were a fiasco and impossible to get at a reasonable price). I honestly think that casebreakers will be luck to average $40-45 a box on this year's product. I barely made $60 a box last year on BDP and that was with hitting several huge Gold/Orange Autographs. Given the current state of card-collecting and what we've seen with recent releases (such as 2009 Bowman Chrome), I would expect case prices to fall into the $500-600 range within a month or so. The Bowman Draft name might help prop up case prices for a while though, so I would say that $500 is an absolute floor in the near-term and case prices will more likely be in the $550-600 range for a while until we start to see some of the Autograph guys struggle in the minors. For this product to be successful in the long-term, you really need about 6-7 of the Autograph guys to become some of the top prospects in the game and I just don't know if that will happen.

Thanked, this is right on.

I hit several huge cards in my 7 case break of 2008 BDP and still just broke even, that includes a very nice buy-in price.

I made money hand over fist on 2007 BDP, this is because base chrome lots of Moose, Parker, Heyward, Price, LaPorta, Joba (x2!) and Bumgarner were all selling for $50 or more. In addition to them you had guys like Taylor, Freeman, Tolisano and others selling for nice sums.

The base set is where the money is made for the case breakers, the autos are just nice bonuses! This auto C/L is comaparable to 2007 but the base C/L is nowhere near as strong, thus, I won't be busting.

 

[blanning71]

Hey, lets all be glad that the Beckett Boyz didn't hit the SUPERFRACTOR AUTO of the best guy in the set. We all know their track record with Box Breaks. Surely you haven't forgotten some of their recent good fortune.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Well, I won't completely dump on Topps, but this is a pretty weak overall product, at least upon release for case busters. Here are my observations:

THE BAD

- Topps took out Junichi Tazawa (now Mike Carp) and Jake Fox (now Jeff Gray) from the RC set. From a casebreakers perspective, those were the top two RC's and would have brought in some pretty good money.
- The base draft set has only 15 of the top 100 draft picks. For those that said the 2008 base set was weak, I don't necessarily disagree, but it did have 25 of the top 100 draft picks (plus good prospects outside the top 100 such as Grossman, Danks, Galloway, Strange-Gordon) and you never know how some of these guys might develop.
- The Autograph set doesn't have any card that will consistently sell for more than $20-25 after the initial release period. It does have some overall depth, but no one that can carry the product and keep case prices up like last year.
- Topps missed out on more than their usual share of top draft picks. They did not include 24 of the top 50 draft picks. Obviously they missed out on a bunch last year because of Razor, but they didn't have any competition this year and still missed out on half of the top 50 picks (where arguably most of the talent from a draft comes).

THE GOOD

- Production is down, which will make it easier to pull some of the Autographed parallels, but because the base set has such few big names, it won't do you much good to pull base parallels.
- The Autograph set does have a lot of potential, but no one that I would say is a really big name right now. We don't really know what will happen with most of these guys, as many are High School draftees. The 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set had an average draft position of 33 with 30 total autographs. This set has an average draft position of 26, but with only 22 total autographs. So I would say the 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set was on par or close to the 2009 Bowman Draft Autograph set at the time they were released. And those guys haven't really developed yet, although they still have time.

This is only the second year since BDP was manufactured that I won't be busting any at release (2006 was the other year and that was only because case pre-sales were a fiasco and impossible to get at a reasonable price). I honestly think that casebreakers will be luck to average $40-45 a box on this year's product. I barely made $60 a box last year on BDP and that was with hitting several huge Gold/Orange Autographs. Given the current state of card-collecting and what we've seen with recent releases (such as 2009 Bowman Chrome), I would expect case prices to fall into the $500-600 range within a month or so. The Bowman Draft name might help prop up case prices for a while though, so I would say that $500 is an absolute floor in the near-term and case prices will more likely be in the $550-600 range for a while until we start to see some of the Autograph guys struggle in the minors. For this product to be successful in the long-term, you really need about 6-7 of the Autograph guys to become some of the top prospects in the game and I just don't know if that will happen.

Thanked, this is right on.

I hit several huge cards in my 7 case break of 2008 BDP and still just broke even, that includes a very nice buy-in price.

I made money hand over fist on 2007 BDP, this is because base chrome lots of Moose, Parker, Heyward, Price, LaPorta, Joba (x2!) and Bumgarner were all selling for $50 or more. In addition to them you had guys like Taylor, Freeman, Tolisano and others selling for nice sums.

The base set is where the money is made for the case breakers, the autos are just nice bonuses! This auto C/L is comaparable to 2007 but the base C/L is nowhere near as strong, thus, I won't be busting.

Don't forget Lincecum...his "RC" was selling for hot money even for base lots. 07 BDP was a dream for case busters. I was completely broken even just by selling the base cards, although the uneven seeding of the gold cards screwed me up since I pre-sold quite a bit.

 

[rainmanesq]

+1. people complain about bcdp every year, condemning it BEFORE the product’s even out, threatening that “omg, I will NEVER rip bcdp again.” Reality is, most of those people either don’t rip @ all (+ just like to complain) or, despite their ranting, STILL rip. If as many people complaining about bcdp each year STOPPED ripping, then maybe topps would improve it?

w/that said, I’m not enamored of 09 bcdp + I don’t think it has the potential $ maker in the base set like 07 bcdp did (which I was still making very nice $ over through 2009). Now if you’re ripping + flipping, bought cases cheaply, bust in bulk, list asap, + are competing w/fewer casebreakers, then you can + likely will almost always profit, even if you don’t hit THE best superfractor.

 

[Jaypers]

+1. people complain about bcdp every year, condemning it BEFORE the product’s even out, threatening that “omg, I will NEVER rip bcdp again.” Reality is, most of those people either don’t rip @ all (+ just like to complain) or, despite their ranting, STILL rip. If as many people complaining about bcdp each year STOPPED ripping, then maybe topps would improve it?

I can proudly say I haven't busted a single box of anything for quite some time now (almost 2 years and counting), and products such as this make me not regret that decision one bit.

 

[masonphillip]

Well, I won't completely dump on Topps, but this is a pretty weak overall product, at least upon release for case busters. Here are my observations:

THE BAD

- Topps took out Junichi Tazawa (now Mike Carp) and Jake Fox (now Jeff Gray) from the RC set. From a casebreakers perspective, those were the top two RC's and would have brought in some pretty good money.
- The base draft set has only 15 of the top 100 draft picks. For those that said the 2008 base set was weak, I don't necessarily disagree, but it did have 25 of the top 100 draft picks (plus good prospects outside the top 100 such as Grossman, Danks, Galloway, Strange-Gordon) and you never know how some of these guys might develop.
- The Autograph set doesn't have any card that will consistently sell for more than $20-25 after the initial release period. It does have some overall depth, but no one that can carry the product and keep case prices up like last year.
- Topps missed out on more than their usual share of top draft picks. They did not include 24 of the top 50 draft picks. Obviously they missed out on a bunch last year because of Razor, but they didn't have any competition this year and still missed out on half of the top 50 picks (where arguably most of the talent from a draft comes).

THE GOOD

- Production is down, which will make it easier to pull some of the Autographed parallels, but because the base set has such few big names, it won't do you much good to pull base parallels.
- The Autograph set does have a lot of potential, but no one that I would say is a really big name right now. We don't really know what will happen with most of these guys, as many are High School draftees. The 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set had an average draft position of 33 with 30 total autographs. This set has an average draft position of 26, but with only 22 total autographs. So I would say the 2007 Bowman Draft Autograph set was on par or close to the 2009 Bowman Draft Autograph set at the time they were released. And those guys haven't really developed yet, although they still have time.

This is only the second year since BDP was manufactured that I won't be busting any at release (2006 was the other year and that was only because case pre-sales were a fiasco and impossible to get at a reasonable price). I honestly think that casebreakers will be luck to average $40-45 a box on this year's product. I barely made $60 a box last year on BDP and that was with hitting several huge Gold/Orange Autographs. Given the current state of card-collecting and what we've seen with recent releases (such as 2009 Bowman Chrome), I would expect case prices to fall into the $500-600 range within a month or so. The Bowman Draft name might help prop up case prices for a while though, so I would say that $500 is an absolute floor in the near-term and case prices will more likely be in the $550-600 range for a while until we start to see some of the Autograph guys struggle in the minors. For this product to be successful in the long-term, you really need about 6-7 of the Autograph guys to become some of the top prospects in the game and I just don't know if that will happen.

Thanked, this is right on.

I hit several huge cards in my 7 case break of 2008 BDP and still just broke even, that includes a very nice buy-in price.

I made money hand over fist on 2007 BDP, this is because base chrome lots of Moose, Parker, Heyward, Price, LaPorta, Joba (x2!) and Bumgarner were all selling for $50 or more. In addition to them you had guys like Taylor, Freeman, Tolisano and others selling for nice sums.

The base set is where the money is made for the case breakers, the autos are just nice bonuses! This auto C/L is comaparable to 2007 but the base C/L is nowhere near as strong, thus, I won't be busting.

Don't forget Lincecum...his "RC" was selling for hot money even for base lots. 07 BDP was a dream for case busters. I was completely broken even just by selling the base cards, although the uneven seeding of the gold cards screwed me up since I pre-sold quite a bit.

Yup, you also had the Longoria FG cards and the Braun and Upton Green Chrome RCs.

Plus if you got the "blue" refractor cases, that was a dream because you were pulling refractors of guys like Heyward which sold for $20 and were easy pulls.

I'd love for an '07 BDP repeat, which I thought was possible this year but even without Razor in the game Topps is putting out poo diddly doo.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

+1. people complain about bcdp every year, condemning it BEFORE the product’s even out, threatening that “omg, I will NEVER rip bcdp again.” Reality is, most of those people either don’t rip @ all (+ just like to complain) or, despite their ranting, STILL rip. If as many people complaining about bcdp each year STOPPED ripping, then maybe topps would improve it?

w/that said, I’m not enamored of 09 bcdp + I don’t think it has the potential $ maker in the base set like 07 bcdp did (which I was still making very nice $ over through 2009). Now if you’re ripping + flipping, bought cases cheaply, bust in bulk, list asap, + are competing w/fewer casebreakers, then you can + likely will almost always profit, even if you don’t hit THE best superfractor.

Well, I'm not sure who the loud mouths are that aren't backing it up, but I won't bust a product if I don't love the base checklist and at least like the auto checklist. I made the mistake of blindly trusting once, learned a valuable lesson, and as a result they lost about 45 cases worth of sales that I would have made.

 

[carlitoson]

...THE BAD

- Topps took out Junichi Tazawa (now Mike Carp) and Jake Fox (now Jeff Gray) from the RC set. From a casebreakers perspective, those were the top two RC's and would have brought in some pretty good money...

Good post! From a collector point of view: As for the quoted part...I agree that it stinks they replaced Tazawa with a 5th-year card of Carp. As for Fox, this might be bad in your opinion but I'd like to say that I'd much rather have the Jeff Gray card over Jake Fox. Gray doesn't have a card yet. In addition, Topps pulled their head out long enough to realize that Alex Avila needed a card. Remember folks (especially Tigers fans) pleading for one this past season? I do. The kid performed very well at the ML level, so it's nice to finally see him get a card. It should sell well.

My biggest gripe is the regurgitation of the WBC cards. Except for the high-end patch products, Topps really failed this year IMO when it came to these. I can understand repeating certain "superstar" players from release to release, but with the number of times they included these base WBC cards in their products, they could've probably included every single player who participated in 2009. They could've continued the checklist from one product to another, with each one having different players. That would've been a really cool "set" to put together. Instead we got the same (for the most part) players time after time. :|

I understand the frustration by folks looking to make a profit on this release. As a collector however, I think this release is just fine. There are plenty of good cards to collect. The cheaper they are, the better.

 

[Jaypers]

For those unaware, Chris Olds has added some more wrapper odds to his initial article on the first page of this thread.

 

[rainmanesq]

+1. people complain about bcdp every year, condemning it BEFORE the product’s even out, threatening that “omg, I will NEVER rip bcdp again.” Reality is, most of those people either don’t rip @ all (+ just like to complain) or, despite their ranting, STILL rip. If as many people complaining about bcdp each year STOPPED ripping, then maybe topps would improve it?

I can proudly say I haven't busted a single box of anything for quite some time now (almost 2 years and counting), and products such as this make me not regret that decision one bit.

I know jp, you’ve been able to successfully step away from the shiny chrome cases. I’ve not had the willpower to totally withdraw

 

[masonphillip]

For those unaware, Chris Olds has added some more wrapper odds to his initial article on the first page of this thread.

As Mr. Keen mentioned, production is down, which will be nice for those busting.

the average case (12 boxes, 24 packs) will now contain:

26 refractors
12 xfractors
6 blue refractors
3 gold refractors
1.5 orange refractors

Those are much better odds than years past.

 

[rainmanesq]

+1. people complain about bcdp every year, condemning it BEFORE the product’s even out, threatening that “omg, I will NEVER rip bcdp again.” Reality is, most of those people either don’t rip @ all (+ just like to complain) or, despite their ranting, STILL rip. If as many people complaining about bcdp each year STOPPED ripping, then maybe topps would improve it?

w/that said, I’m not enamored of 09 bcdp + I don’t think it has the potential $ maker in the base set like 07 bcdp did (which I was still making very nice $ over through 2009). Now if you’re ripping + flipping, bought cases cheaply, bust in bulk, list asap, + are competing w/fewer casebreakers, then you can + likely will almost always profit, even if you don’t hit THE best superfractor.

Well, I'm not sure who the loud mouths are that aren't backing it up, but I won't bust a product if I don't love the base checklist and at least like the auto checklist. I made the mistake of blindly trusting once, learned a valuable lesson, and as a result they lost about 45 cases worth of sales that I would have made.

i can’t think of anyone in particular (I’m not on boards much these days), but it seems like the same debates have been going on since ’05 (maybe 06?) w/little to no change from topps + little to no change in market conditions (in terms of # of rippers). outside of maybe 1-3 formerly “regular bulk bc/bcdp casebusters” dropping out (08?), it doesn’t seem like there’s been a significant drop off in 20 ct lot listings. I can think of @ least 2-3 “new” (@ least to bc/bcdp) casebusters who have popped up to “fill the gap,” (in various products) so I’m not sure complaining has been fruitful as I don’t see topps improving the checklist.

Sure, you may not buy 45 cases, but between the new casebreakers who have popped up, I’m not sure topps cares. Topps only cares about “selling out” to the people who buy direct from topps + I don’t know many (any?) who get in 45 cases direct from topps, so I don't see bc/bcdp NOT "selling out" as far as topps is concerned.

so maybe the discontent is a combo of less than great checklist + a case of “middlemen/wannabe distributors” (e.g., NOT the blowout/Atlanta/etc., but rather the random guys who used to sell cases to friends) being hurt b/c THEY are not “selling out” of cases or b/c they can’t as easily buy say 10 cases + flip them for $50-100+ more/case within 2 months of release?

 

[jkeen01]

i can’t think of anyone in particular (I’m not on boards much these days), but it seems like the same debates have been going on since ’05 (maybe 06?) w/little to no change from topps + little to no change in market conditions (in terms of # of rippers). outside of maybe 1-3 formerly “regular bulk bc/bcdp casebusters” dropping out (08?), it doesn’t seem like there’s been a significant drop off in 20 ct lot listings. I can think of @ least 2-3 “new” (@ least to bc/bcdp) casebusters who have popped up to “fill the gap,” (in various products) so I’m not sure complaining has been fruitful as I don’t see topps improving the checklist.

Sure, you may not buy 45 cases, but between the new casebreakers who have popped up, I’m not sure topps cares. Topps only cares about “selling out” to the people who buy direct from topps + I don’t know many (any?) who get in 45 cases direct from topps, so I don't see bc/bcdp NOT "selling out" as far as topps is concerned.

so maybe the discontent is a combo of less than great checklist + a case of “middlemen/wannabe distributors” (e.g., NOT the blowout/Atlanta/etc., but rather the random guys who used to sell cases to friends) being hurt b/c THEY are not “selling out” of cases or b/c they can’t as easily buy say 10 cases + flip them for $50-100+ more/case within 2 months of release?

I don't necessarily agree with these statements. It does seem there are still plenty of people busting BDP when you see everything that hits ebay, but there's NO WAY Topps would cut production by 1/3 from 2008 (which was also lower than previous years) if there wasn't a decline in demand. I, for one, have busted the following:

2002 - 62 cases
2003 - 57 cases
2004 - 56 cases
2005 - 68 cases
2006 - 0 cases (only due to problems with pre-sell prices)
2007 - 46 cases
2008 - 14 cases
2009 - 0 cases

 

[Wes]

07 8
08 8
09 Zero

 

[marterburn]

blues will still be #'d/ 99.

blues are 3.92 times scarcer than orange, which we know will be /25
blues are 1.96 times scarcer than gold, which we know will be /50

both point to blues being #'d /98. but they'll be /99.

so with that said, production is roughly the same as last year then, right?

 

[rainmanesq]

i can’t think of anyone in particular (I’m not on boards much these days), but it seems like the same debates have been going on since ’05 (maybe 06?) w/little to no change from topps + little to no change in market conditions (in terms of # of rippers). outside of maybe 1-3 formerly “regular bulk bc/bcdp casebusters” dropping out (08?), it doesn’t seem like there’s been a significant drop off in 20 ct lot listings. I can think of @ least 2-3 “new” (@ least to bc/bcdp) casebusters who have popped up to “fill the gap,” (in various products) so I’m not sure complaining has been fruitful as I don’t see topps improving the checklist.

Sure, you may not buy 45 cases, but between the new casebreakers who have popped up, I’m not sure topps cares. Topps only cares about “selling out” to the people who buy direct from topps + I don’t know many (any?) who get in 45 cases direct from topps, so I don't see bc/bcdp NOT "selling out" as far as topps is concerned.

so maybe the discontent is a combo of less than great checklist + a case of “middlemen/wannabe distributors” (e.g., NOT the blowout/Atlanta/etc., but rather the random guys who used to sell cases to friends) being hurt b/c THEY are not “selling out” of cases or b/c they can’t as easily buy say 10 cases + flip them for $50-100+ more/case within 2 months of release?

I don't necessarily agree with these statements. It does seem there are still plenty of people busting BDP when you see everything that hits ebay, but there's NO WAY Topps would cut production by 1/3 from 2008 (which was also lower than previous years) if there wasn't a decline in demand. I, for one, have busted the following:

2002 - 62 cases
2003 - 57 cases
2004 - 56 cases
2005 - 68 cases
2006 - 0 cases (only due to problems with pre-sell prices)
2007 - 46 cases
2008 - 14 cases
2009 - 0 cases

Most companies cut production this year b/c of the economy, so I’m not sure this is solely a BCDP issue (though, as I said, I don’t love love love this year’s bcdp). In fact, most companies in every industry have cut production this year. When even HUGE law firms (once “immune” from layoffs b/c hey, everyone “needs” a lawyer, right?) start laying people off regularly, the economy IS impacting things.

I think alot of the “casual box/case rippers” have dropped out b/c of their own financial problems (job loss, bad gambling results on prospects, etc.) + market trends have been shifting away from prospects for the past year or so. I also think the stupid “new RC” rules backfired. Even though production is supposedly cut (has anyone ever confirmed this WITH topps? It always seems like speculation), I’ve not noticed a huge drop in BC/BCDP listings over the past few years. In fact some sellers, like tntnorth, have been ripping like no tomorrow lately.

I’m not saying there aren’t issues w/BC or BCDP (frankly, I hate the 5th yr “rcs”), but I think message board results tend to represent just a small fraction of the market as a whole. We’ll see how 09 BCDP plays out…maybe people will find there’s a vast shortage of 20 ct lots, maybe casebreakers will find they lose $ on 09 bcdp, etc.

 

[jkeen01]

Most companies cut production this year b/c of the economy, so I’m not sure this is solely a BCDP issue (though, as I said, I don’t love love love this year’s bcdp). In fact, most companies in every industry have cut production this year. When even HUGE law firms (once “immune” from layoffs b/c hey, everyone “needs” a lawyer, right?) start laying people off regularly, the economy IS impacting things.

I think alot of the “casual box/case rippers” have dropped out b/c of their own financial problems (job loss, bad gambling results on prospects, etc.) + market trends have been shifting away from prospects for the past year or so. I also think the stupid “new RC” rules backfired. Even though production is supposedly cut (has anyone ever confirmed this WITH topps? It always seems like speculation), I’ve not noticed a huge drop in BC/BCDP listings over the past few years. In fact some sellers, like tntnorth, have been ripping like no tomorrow lately.

I’m not saying there aren’t issues w/BC or BCDP (frankly, I hate the 5th yr “rcs”), but I think message board results tend to represent just a small fraction of the market as a whole. We’ll see how 09 BCDP plays out…maybe people will find there’s a vast shortage of 20 ct lots, maybe casebreakers will find they lose $ on 09 bcdp, etc.

You make a good point - I agree that the economy is probably playing a big role in the cut in production, so it's not all the supposed "downfall" of BDP. Actually, the economy is probably the reason why there's a bit of a trend of at least "knowledgeable" casebreakers dropping out. The only reason I did it in the past was because I could make money at it. Sure, you'll still see people take chances on a smaller number of cases for the thrill, but if you can't consistently make money breaking these cases, then there's no reason to bust 40-50 cases. In the past, I think people were more willing to pay large sums of money for chrome lots, parallels, etc. I do think the checklists lately aren't quite as strong as they were with past years at release, but also, the economy is playing a factor in what people are willing to pay for the chrome lots, parallels, etc. It's just a different ballgame right now and until things recover, BDP will be a losing battle unless they stuff the base set with just about every pick in the top 100.

 

[rainmanesq]

Most companies cut production this year b/c of the economy, so I’m not sure this is solely a BCDP issue (though, as I said, I don’t love love love this year’s bcdp). In fact, most companies in every industry have cut production this year. When even HUGE law firms (once “immune” from layoffs b/c hey, everyone “needs” a lawyer, right?) start laying people off regularly, the economy IS impacting things.

I think alot of the “casual box/case rippers” have dropped out b/c of their own financial problems (job loss, bad gambling results on prospects, etc.) + market trends have been shifting away from prospects for the past year or so. I also think the stupid “new RC” rules backfired. Even though production is supposedly cut (has anyone ever confirmed this WITH topps? It always seems like speculation), I’ve not noticed a huge drop in BC/BCDP listings over the past few years. In fact some sellers, like tntnorth, have been ripping like no tomorrow lately.

I’m not saying there aren’t issues w/BC or BCDP (frankly, I hate the 5th yr “rcs”), but I think message board results tend to represent just a small fraction of the market as a whole. We’ll see how 09 BCDP plays out…maybe people will find there’s a vast shortage of 20 ct lots, maybe casebreakers will find they lose $ on 09 bcdp, etc.

You make a good point - I agree that the economy is probably playing a big role in the cut in production, so it's not all the supposed "downfall" of BDP. Actually, the economy is probably the reason why there's a bit of a trend of at least "knowledgeable" casebreakers dropping out. The only reason I did it in the past was because I could make money at it. Sure, you'll still see people take chances on a smaller number of cases for the thrill, but if you can't consistently make money breaking these cases, then there's no reason to bust 40-50 cases. In the past, I think people were more willing to pay large sums of money for chrome lots, parallels, etc. I do think the checklists lately aren't quite as strong as they were with past years at release, but also, the economy is playing a factor in what people are willing to pay for the chrome lots, parallels, etc. It's just a different ballgame right now and until things recover, BDP will be a losing battle unless they stuff the base set with just about every pick in the top 100.

I agree that this year’s probably not the best year to rip, but if you’ve gotten cases very cheaply (bing 20% + ebay 10% coupon + bigcrumbs made 09 BCDP cases $450ish), are the first/1 of the first to list, + bust in bulk (ideally 10+ cases), then I don’t think it’s totally foolish to rip 09 bcdp. After all, someone has to feed the deranged JPs out there who must have 400 chromes of “their guy”

Sometimes, it’s better to rip older products if you don’t love the checklist. Ex., when 08 bcdp came out, I was ripping 07 bcdp? Why? 30% cashback + there wasn’t anyone else listing 20ct lots of 07 bcdp @ the time. I made out like a bandit. Did the same thing (on a smaller scale) when 09 Bowman came out. Again, no one else was listing 10-20 ct lots, so I was able to do quite well..+ I have most of the top parallels left. W/07 bcdp cases being <$400 now, it’s getting mighty tempting to rip them in bulk again. Sometimes, redirecting $ normally reserved for BC/BCDP, elite, sterling, etc. is the better choice.

 

[gocubsgo]

I busted 13 cases of 2008 and 12 cases in 2007 and won't touch 2009 with a 10 foot pole. Average auto checklist and below average base checklist means any large break will take a bath at current case prices.

Production on 09 is WAY down. Topps is printing everything made to order so there was about 40% less demand this year based on the pack odds. A solid base checklist full of first round picks has always been the key to making money on Draft.

Good luck to those breaking and have fun. You will be getting a ton of low #d refractors but almost every one of these will be late round picks that won't fetch much.