Bowman Chrome Rookie/prospects

[pigskincardboard]

another problem with mass lots of base chrome


you have to sell a ton of them to make any real worthwhile money


During a peak, you can only sell so much stuff on ebay without flooding the ebay market. You then have to look for alternatives to sell during that spike

If you have an alternative market, then you can move more, but if you are turning 2 bucks profit per base chrome then you had better be able to move at least 500. Keep in mind that for every time you are right, you are wrong at least twice and sales from a hit need to cover losses from a miss.

Let's say 10 percent interest -- So, over the course of your 20 (21 for ease) years, your card's should've doubled once every 7 years (using the rule of 70).

So, will your .99 cent card be worth 8 dollars? Keep in mind, 10% interest is pretty steep.

You really have to put it into perspective, which is really tough to do when you're spending so little on the cards.

But, try to think of what you're making based on an interest rate rather than just number of dollars, straight-up cash-homie dolla-dolla-billz, yall.

 

[cgilmo]

another problem with mass lots of base chrome


you have to sell a ton of them to make any real worthwhile money


During a peak, you can only sell so much stuff on ebay without flooding the ebay market. You then have to look for alternatives to sell during that spike

If you have an alternative market, then you can move more, but if you are turning 2 bucks profit per base chrome then you had better be able to move at least 500. Keep in mind that for every time you are right, you are wrong at least twice and sales from a hit need to cover losses from a miss.

Let's say 10 percent interest -- So, over the course of your 20 (21 for ease) years, your card's should've doubled once every 7 years (using the rule of 70).

So, will your .99 cent card be worth 8 dollars? Keep in mind, 10% interest is pretty steep.

You really have to put it into perspective, which is really tough to do when you're spending so little on the cards.

But, try to think of what you're making based on an interest rate rather than just number of dollars, straight-up cash-homie dolla-dolla-billz, yall.

There are many parallels that can be made between prospecting and the stock market. However at some point those comparisons stop. The card market is oh so very fickle, and things just don't project out across 5-8 years generally speaking. You have to be able to recognize the one time that your card will spike, and then dump all you can in that time frame because odds are you won't see the spike agian.

Buy cards, hope you are right about the player.

Wait for the market to react, sell your cards.

Repeat.

 

[pigskincardboard]

another problem with mass lots of base chrome


you have to sell a ton of them to make any real worthwhile money


During a peak, you can only sell so much stuff on ebay without flooding the ebay market. You then have to look for alternatives to sell during that spike

If you have an alternative market, then you can move more, but if you are turning 2 bucks profit per base chrome then you had better be able to move at least 500. Keep in mind that for every time you are right, you are wrong at least twice and sales from a hit need to cover losses from a miss.

Let's say 10 percent interest -- So, over the course of your 20 (21 for ease) years, your card's should've doubled once every 7 years (using the rule of 70).

So, will your .99 cent card be worth 8 dollars? Keep in mind, 10% interest is pretty steep.

You really have to put it into perspective, which is really tough to do when you're spending so little on the cards.

But, try to think of what you're making based on an interest rate rather than just number of dollars, straight-up cash-homie dolla-dolla-billz, yall.

There are many parallels that can be made between prospecting and the stock market. However at some point those comparisons stop. The card market is oh so very fickle, and things just don't project out across 5-8 years generally speaking. You have to be able to recognize the one time that your card will spike, and then dump all you can in that time frame because odds are you won't see the spike agian.

Buy cards, hope you are right about the player.

Wait for the market to react, sell your cards.

Repeat.

I agree for the most part, but disagree based on high-volume cards. I wish I had total numbers to crunch, but I don't. I don't exactly see the *card* market as fickle, but instead see the methods of distribution as fickle. I think with long-term investments, you're banking more on the survival of your preferred method more than anything.

At this point, the market can only get so much more efficient -- which means card prices have pretty much reached rock bottom. The player's going to be the largest factor, but the prices of *cards* with all of the variables stripped away (player, year, set) has essentially bottomed out.

If I could think of a way to improve market efficiency, I'd probably make a good chunk of change. At this point though, distribution methods seem saturated.

So I do agree with you based on anything with print-runs under 1000 (arbitrary number) , I'm pretty sure that anything over 5000 units plays by different rules.

If you're playing the middle man rather than the final *retail* seller, it's once again a different set of rules. What I'm trying to address is the person that plans on selling singles, rather than 500ct lots.

Do you know off hand how many first year chrome cards were produced per prospect? Like say, Jason Heyward?

 

[cgilmo]

what I am saying here pigskincardboard


in theory if you have 500 base chromes that you paid 50 cents each for, logic would tell you that if they went up to $5 per chrome you could sell and turn $250 into $2500

you could do this with stock


you cannot do this with cards because you cannot unload 500 chromes on ebay during the short spike time period without flooding the market thus devaluing your cards. (in most cases)

Prospecting cards with a bit more umph means you have less to sell in that short window, and you can do it without flooding the market.

 

[pigskincardboard]

what I am saying here pigskincardboard


in theory if you have 500 base chromes that you paid 50 cents each for, logic would tell you that if they went up to $5 per chrome you could sell and turn $250 into $2500

you could do this with stock


you cannot do this with cards because you cannot unload 500 chromes on ebay during the short spike time period without flooding the market thus devaluing your cards. (in most cases)

Prospecting cards with a bit more umph means you have less to sell in that short window, and you can do it without flooding the market.

If stock price was set at 5 dollars based on future profits and current evaluation, all the lovely things that go into that magical number, odds are that you won't be paying 5 dollars.

Either way, the same principles apply to the stock market. If someone tries to dump a good chunk of stock, the market will react. Obviously, everything's sort of expedited in the stock market and thus, you're point.

If 5% of a company or a print-run were put on the block, I doubt that the price would remain stable. There's just more stock market brokers than card brokers, so most of the time the price doesn't have the same amount of time to drop.

Anyways, after a certain amount of years, the prices should stabilize such that you'd be able to sell 500 cards over the course of a year without experiencing a huge price drop.

 

[kuggy2]

I use to be a big time Bowman Chromie rookies and autos.... they have pretty much been disappointing the last 2 yrs so I have switched my allegiance for the most part to Donruss Elite.. I still do the Chrome autos, but the regular chrome rc I now trade/sell

 

[011873]

If you ONLY use ebay to sell singles, I guess theres no need to invest in base BC rookies.

I have not had any problems selling base BC rookies (so we are clear here, when I say "rookies" I mean guys like Heyward, Mous, Snider and NOT MLB RC logo's) in my store or at shows.

To say Ive sold MANY 2006 up Mous, Snider, Heyward, Price, Hanson, Masterson, etc etc etc etc at around $5 AND HIGHER would be an understatement. Heck, I think I was getting around $10 for Price and I know I got around that for Hanson too.

 

[mredsox89]

If you ONLY use ebay to sell singles, I guess theres no need to invest in base BC rookies.

I have not had any problems selling base BC rookies (so we are clear here, when I say "rookies" I mean guys like Heyward, Mous, Snider and NOT MLB RC logo's) in my store or at shows.

To say Ive sold MANY 2006 up Mous, Snider, Heyward, Price, Hanson, Masterson, etc etc etc etc at around $5 AND HIGHER would be an understatement. Heck, I think I was getting around $10 for Price and I know I got around that for Hanson too.

Completely agree. If you have the ability to sell off ebay and avoid fees and shipping costs, they can be worth it. But even if the cards get to $5-$7 on ebay, that ends up being a gross of only 3-4 and that leaves very little room for profit.

 

[Vagrant]

The only thing wrong with the secondary market right now is that less people are buying. The problem during that time is that baseball does not stop being played just because the economy is having trouble. Cards that would have jumped to a few hundred bucks like Gordon Beckham during his hot streak, now jump to $75 or so because nobody has the money to really put that into a piece of cardboard at the moment.

I am totally convinced that the prospector's ideal market is the prospector. We buy and sell to each other at various rates. Sometimes I win, sometimes you win, but it all depends on who is better at it as to who comes out on the good in the long term. Perception is reality. If you are a prospector that buys a lot and you stop buying base chromes and other people follow, then what you have is a lack of demand.

Another variable is that we have not really had a player really explode onto the scene that did not have an autograph version from Bowman Chrome. Call it "bad luck" for base chrome or whatever you please, but rest assured that when Jason Heyward comes flying hard out of the gates or a few guys from 2007 BDP start to burst onto the scene that their base chrome cards are going to be worth some bank. If you don't believe me, i'll take all you're willing to give me at $.50 a pop.

It just so happens that the biggest prospects in the past year or so have been Wieters, who has no chrome at all, Beckham who had no chrome base, along with Strasburg and Harper who have yet to have chrome. Simply coincidence. The rate of attrition on chrome base has been no worse than the rate of attrition on prospect cards in general.

Since i'm feeling generous i'll offer a few tips. If anybody offers you chrome base at a reasonable price for Heyward, Logan Morrison, or Neftali Feliz then take it. You won't be disappointed.

 

[011873]

Theres many collectors who have NO interest in a high end refractor of some prospect or current player and just as many who would just like to have a "quality" rookie card of one of the above.

I put out $3 and $5 rookie albums loaded with BC cards of only top prospects or top young guys. Ive probably sold 10-15 Happ's over the last 6 months totally $30-$50, mostly 1 or 2 at a time.

Just matters where you sell and how you present them.
My friend was selling 10 count lots of Hanson on ebay and getting around $50 before fees while I was getting $60-$80 outside of ebay.

High end refs? Perfect anywhere.
Base BC? Perfect anywhere BUT ebay.


Lastly, just remember that a big reason why the base CL for the last 3 BC products have been so weak is because of Razor.

 

[brianga26]

I am hoping to move a few boxes of 2006 Bowman Draft Pick boxes Sunday.. hopefully get around 85 a box

 

[cgilmo]

Theres many collectors who have NO interest in a high end refractor of some prospect or current player and just as many who would just like to have a "quality" rookie card of one of the above.

I put out $3 and $5 rookie albums loaded with BC cards of only top prospects or top young guys. Ive probably sold 10-15 Happ's over the last 6 months totally $30-$50, mostly 1 or 2 at a time.

Just matters where you sell and how you present them.
My friend was selling 10 count lots of Hanson on ebay and getting around $50 before fees while I was getting $60-$80 outside of ebay.

High end refs? Perfect anywhere.
Base BC? Perfect anywhere BUT ebay.


Lastly, just remember that a big reason why the base CL for the last 3 BC products have been so weak is because of Razor.

yes, let us flog them

 

[brianga26]

yes ARSE hats (BG, talking to you) I bought of lot of that crap now he is on a tropical vacation laughing at us all (bring on the flaming that is probably coming) :lol: :lol:

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

While I completely agree with this, it also got me to thinking. What other card issue could be discussed the way BC is discussed here in this thread, and is this a good thing for the hobby?

The hobby has its own niches that rise and fall in general popularity over time, but any single particular niche is not more important than another. Clearly "modern prospecting" just happens to be a newer niche people still need to figure out.

The only thing wrong with the secondary market right now is that less people are buying. The problem during that time is that baseball does not stop being played just because the economy is having trouble. Cards that would have jumped to a few hundred bucks like Gordon Beckham during his hot streak, now jump to $75 or so because nobody has the money to really put that into a piece of cardboard at the moment.

I am totally convinced that the prospector's ideal market is the prospector. We buy and sell to each other at various rates. Sometimes I win, sometimes you win, but it all depends on who is better at it as to who comes out on the good in the long term. Perception is reality. If you are a prospector that buys a lot and you stop buying base chromes and other people follow, then what you have is a lack of demand.

Another variable is that we have not really had a player really explode onto the scene that did not have an autograph version from Bowman Chrome. Call it "bad luck" for base chrome or whatever you please, but rest assured that when Jason Heyward comes flying hard out of the gates or a few guys from 2007 BDP start to burst onto the scene that their base chrome cards are going to be worth some bank. If you don't believe me, i'll take all you're willing to give me at $.50 a pop.

It just so happens that the biggest prospects in the past year or so have been Wieters, who has no chrome at all, Beckham who had no chrome base, along with Strasburg and Harper who have yet to have chrome. Simply coincidence. The rate of attrition on chrome base has been no worse than the rate of attrition on prospect cards in general.

Since i'm feeling generous i'll offer a few tips. If anybody offers you chrome base at a reasonable price for Heyward, Logan Morrison, or Neftali Feliz then take it. You won't be disappointed.

 

[brianga26]

I agree! no doubt when someone gets hot, a few of us (I am included) hits the Bay looking for a card or two of them, and sometimes pays a few more $$ than we would want, but we HAVE to have the card!

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Yes, very true, very true

While many of us want that player's first or rookie cards, many others want patch autos, or whatever else that looks interesting.

I agree! no doubt when someone gets hot, a few of us (I am included) hits the Bay looking for a card or two of them, and sometimes pays a few more $$ than we would want, but we HAVE to have the card!

 

[brianga26]

so in theory its basic supply/demand/wants/desires..