Brett Lawrie BC Redemption worth the risk?

[WaxPax]

I'm sure many have been watching this, and are familiar with the SP status of this redemption. At $200+ for a base auto, is this too risky as far as actually getting the cards. We all know topps and their redemption replacement (Beckett value) policy.

So my question is,(A) does anyone have the current "Beckett Value", and (B) has anyone taken a shot at redeeming if you pulled or purchased one.

 

[hoos]

Current Beckett on the base auto just went up to $125-$250.

 

[Leaf]

I know Brett larie from when he was my exclusive...
I think Brett is a stand up guy and I bet he'll sign...
BG

 

[James52411]

The real question is whether you think he's going to be a superstar. Regardless of it being shortprinted, the only way this card maintains or even increases in value is if he ends up being a top player.

 

[JzWand]

I still cant believe the base redemptions are selling for $200+.

I dont really think it is worth the risk though if you bought a case.

Being just outside of TO and being a Jays and Lawrie fan, I didnt buy it to flip or as an investment.

But had I bought a case and pulled it, I would have a tough time turning down $200-$225 to recoup a good portion of the cost!

 

[VandyDan]

I know Brett larie from when he was my exclusive...
I think Brett is a stand up guy and I bet he'll sign...
BG

BG,

If you don't mind sharing, is there anything exclusive deal that he signed with you that would prevent him from having the auto out? Not to say that any of this is intentional, but might Topps be waiting just to be sure that when they do release it, it won't cause any legal action? It might be that their legal department is waiting just to be sure that they don't make him or themselves violate any contract. Could the exclusive deal language be construed in any such way?

thanks.

FWIW, I'm keeping mine until they are redeemed or until Topps gives up and replaces them. I just hope that they use high-water mark(ish) BV in determining the replacement value. I could imagine that if this takes another year and the price comes down, they'll be replacing a base for about $80 worth or something. But then again, I pulled mine. I might be kicking myself a year down the road for turning down $300+ for a blue ref.

 

[PeteD]

I wouldn't be surprized once the news comes out he's signed, they'll jump to $300+. I have ppl lined up looking for his chrome auto.

 

[sunojorel]

As for the price the card is EXTREMELY SSP I do not know how many were produced and it seems that auto base refractors were omitted. That being said between myself and a friend who also broke in quantity.

40 cases were broken between us and only 1 Lawrie auto redemption card was pulled.

It was not a base auto, the only Lawrie auto that was pulled from those 40 cases was a gold auto redemption.

So through 40 cases not even 1 base auto lawrie was pulled.


I feel that he may not have to achieve superstardom for his cards to sustain value give or take 25% of where they are now.
If he turns out to be a star player with decent following they will hold..simply because there are none to be had..
Just my opinion ..take it for what it is..

 

[ajbraves25]

Hey Waxpax I have a nice lot of non-auto 2011 Bowman Chrome if you're not wanting to risk the autos.

~AJ

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

I pulled 1 and redeemed it. Now I wish I could have the redemption back...not worth the risk now. I'd rather sell the redemption.

 

[ajbraves25]

Of he doesn't end up signing, do any of you see an increase in the base stuff? I'm sorta gambling on the chance he doesn't. If he does I hope the base doesn't drop. I doubt it would thou seeing the autos are so expensive now. Who knows.

~AJ

 

[Pinbreaker]

I'm glad I sold this when I did..

The person I sold it to collects him and has at least 2 of these I know of..

 

[Jenkinssssss]

Wish I wouldve bought more when they were $100-have 5 base (1 redeemed) and 1 blue.

Ya'll keep calling them "base autos" when the print run is most likely 200-300 based on # sold on eBay when compared to other blue autos (150) and other player refractor autos (500).

 

[fattymacs]

I just pulled a redemption for the gold refractor. What would be a good amount to ask? Or should I just throw up on ebay in an auction style listing and see where it lands?

Thanks for any advice in advance.

 

[VandyDan]

I think that the risk exists and the price is currently so high that it doesn't make sense to buy in at this point. I think if you've already bought or pulled them, there's no real new risk, and worse case scenario, you'll get a ~ 300 BV card...or 300 fernando martinez autos.

 

[chompsmcgee]

This card has the potential to be to the hobby what the 89 UD Griffey and 01 BC Pujols auto have been.

There is a lot of Lawrie momentum right now. Canadian kid playing in Toronto, impressive debut, and the ONLY certified MLB 2011 auto PERIOD*. He's likely already Jays fans' favorite player and that's saying something when they have some dude who is putting up monster numbers the past two seasons. As mentioned by another member, he doesn't have to be the next coming of Pujols for it to bring even more amazing returns in the future. Oh, and chrome is king.

IMO, if he puts up anything near Longoria numbers - .270/.350/.500 - and more than 25+ homers in the next couple seasons the 2011 BC Lawrie auto will be the new face of hobby cards*.

Now, with that being said, am I hyping the card because I own a redemption? You bet your fracking ass.


*if the card ends up being made

 

[VandyDan]

Even if it doesn't end up being made and the scenario you explain above happens, the redemption cards themselves might hold some value. Not much, but some. It would effectively be the rarest Lawrie RC, albeit a quite ugly one (not to offend anyones sense of card aesthetics, which seems to be a theme of the night).

 

[JzWand]

If I hadnt redeemed mine, im not going to lie.

It would be very tempting to flip it for $225 or so after buying it for $85.

At teh same time since I live just outside of Toronto and hes a pretty exciting player to follow plus being Canadian, I doubt I would have actually gone through with it.

But $225 for a base auto just sounds ridiculous!

 

[chompsmcgee]

But $225 for a base auto just sounds ridiculous!

It does sound ridiculous. But in perspective, it's a SSP.

 

[ajbraves25]

Ok guys, I would like some input. I have a minimal stash of Lawrie base. Should I sell now out of fear he does sign and the base drop or hold encase he doesn't?
Here's what I have:
1 Throwback
30 base
5 Green xfractors
1 Purple refractor
4 Base refractors
2 Blue refractors

I worry that they could bottom out if he signs the autos. What are your thoughts either way? Could those stay valuable even if he signs due to high prices or like some, the base may become irrelevant.

Thanks

~AJ