Cautionary Tale For the Elite Busters

[Messier2]

I like the look of this product. That being said I have maintained from the beginning that the print runs combined with the sticker vs non-sticker autos makes this set a tough flip.

Also, the players in their non-MLB jerseys doesn't help either. I know EEE has a rich and successful history, but "little" things like that help/hurt the popularity of the card/product.

 

[ballerskrip]

I like the look of this product. That being said I have maintained from the beginning that the print runs combined with the sticker vs non-sticker autos makes this set a tough flip.

Also, the players in their non-MLB jerseys doesn't help either. I know EEE has a rich and successful history, but "little" things like that help/hurt the popularity of the card/product.

I have been saying this for months when all of the FCB hype started rolling along and big name members starting pumping it up. Along with the big checklist and amount of $1 autos hurts this prodcut dramatically.

Now, I will say I like the look of these cards. Just like last years elite though, you have to hit a nice die cut of auto of a top player to make your money back on a box. At least at this point. I did end up buying a few boxes, but that is the ripper in me, not the smart investor.

skrip

 

[masonphillip]

Busting this product at $80-$90 a box makes no sense.

If you bought your cases when bing.com credit was happening, then you are in at a much better price.

Regarding the prices of the autos and them falling, well, that always happens...ALWAYS. No one should be surprised by that. Frequently, the prices drop right after release then bounce up again, as the market flood ebbs.

I think when busting a product like elite, you need to have done your checklist evaluation ahead of time and have a rough idea of who to hold and at what prices.

3 boxes just isn't a big enough sample size either.

 

[justinmandawg]

If someone busts in any quantity, they will make solid money off the base. I've done it and it's pretty good for what is really little more than trash. Anyone not a relief pitcher or 24 year old that is selling for a buck or two is worth holding.

 

[justinmandawg]

It was possible w/ bing etc, to get cases at under 65/box if I'm remembering correctly.

 

[Messier2]

Oh, and to the OP. Box breaking is a crap shoot. 99% of the time, you will NOT get your money back or make any money busting boxes. So, if you go into the break hoping to “make some money”…I’m sorry bud, you will most likely NOT.

Now, if you go into the break with the mindset that this is just for fun and to feed your “addiction” to break wax, then you will enjoy it more. If you do hit a big pull, great, sell it and re-coup the box prices.

I break boxes once in a while to feed my box breaking “need”. I don’t look to make money but if I do hit a big one, I am stoked…if I don’t, no biggie, I had fun breaking the box. Box breaking should be fun and not meant to supplement your income.

 

[pigskincardboard]

I like the look of this product. That being said I have maintained from the beginning that the print runs combined with the sticker vs non-sticker autos makes this set a tough flip.

Also, the players in their non-MLB jerseys doesn't help either. I know EEE has a rich and successful history, but "little" things like that help/hurt the popularity of the card/product.

I have been saying this for months when all of the FCB hype started rolling along and big name members starting pumping it up. Along with the big checklist and amount of $1 autos hurts this prodcut dramatically.

Now, I will say I like the look of these cards. Just like last years elite though, you have to hit a nice die cut of auto of a top player to make your money back on a box. At least at this point. I did end up buying a few boxes, but that is the ripper in me, not the smart investor.

skrip

If you list 'em, let me know! I got those bowman chrome autos yesterday.

Either way, I think it's generally sorta funny that sellers expect the market to take care of them. It seems like a good chunk of people believe that listing a card right after breaking is the best way to go and will guarantee ROI.

You should be doing some freakin' research, though. The number of interested parties will almost always be the biggest factor. Quite frankly, as almost everyone has suggested, why are you even listing the lower end cards?

If you know a card is going to sell for under 3 dollars, it's best just to hold onto it and if the player performs as widely expected, just eat the loss of 1-3 dollars.

Why are people so willing to gamble on a box, but refuse to let it ride with crappy players.

Make a database of the crappy players, and every week check the prices. The player just has to make a hot list to get 10 bucks, and who knows, maybe you'll make 10 times what you would've gotten.

 

[Jaypers]

Unlike draft chrome I am not buying anything for months.

When buying singles with any products you should wait months. This years Draft prices dropped just as quick as Elite currently is which is no surprise to anyone i would think.

What happens when a 1/1 (or a substantially low #d sample) of the player you're prospecting hits eBay immediately after the product hits? Do you let it go without bidding or making an offer on it? You'd be taking the chance it falls into the hands of someone who has no intention of parting with it.

 

[cgilmo]

You can't really tell anything with 3 boxes.

And yes, it dosen't make any sense to buy this product at $90

I paid much much less because I locked in early. I could have added to my order late at that price, but it wouldn't have been a good idea so I didn't do it. Let the hype die down and let a few of the prospects start playing before you throw in the towel.

 

[Greg Cleveland]

I don't know anything about prospecting, but I know the flurry about busting this stuff is all about getting the Golden Ticket--an Albert Pujols auto. No one from here has pulled one yet--and they are all over the Box Break boards--and I haven't ckecked eBay yet, but when they hit the secondary market--wow! Pete Rose, Al Kaline, Mark Fidrych are nice, but they aren't the ones that people are ripping this stuff for. And Chapman is nice too--sell while he's in the news--but after that, this is something to wait and see with 90%+ of the autos.

 

[Pinbreaker]

Does anyone open boxes for the hell of it anymore?

I open a few boxes here and there as I like to open boxes and you have a chance of a hot box here and there where you get 10 auto's a box compared to 6..

I've already picked up an Ackerly Private Signings as I like the Sweet Spot type auto's.. Here is one I pulled out of the 3 boxes I opened yesterday..

 

[ballerskrip]

I don't know anything about prospecting, but I know the flurry about busting this stuff is all about getting the Golden Ticket--an Albert Pujols auto. No one from here has pulled one yet--and they are all over the Box Break boards--and I haven't ckecked eBay yet, but when they hit the secondary market--wow! Pete Rose, Al Kaline, Mark Fidrych are nice, but they aren't the ones that people are ripping this stuff for. And Chapman is nice too--sell while he's in the news--but after that, this is something to wait and see with 90%+ of the autos.

It is interesting that we have seen (3) of the Mike Schmidt auto /20, and zero of the Pujols /20...

 

[masonphillip]

Does anyone open boxes for the hell of it anymore?

I open a few boxes here and there as I like to open boxes and you have a chance of a hot box here and there where you get 10 auto's a box compared to 6..

I've already picked up an Ackerly Private Signings as I like the Sweet Spot type auto's.. Here is one I pulled out of the 3 boxes I opened yesterday..

Nice pull, I think the private signings are a very nice addition!

 

[Tzilla]

I don't think that you can buy a product and expect immediate profits. In 2007, you couldn't get squat for some prospects within a few weeks of release. But now there are several high dollar cards in the set. Compare this year's prices now vs. 6-8 months down the road and I think that the RI will be more to your liking. There are too many of these "kids" that don't even have any minor league experience to prospect on. Give them time to be truly scouted. When a product first comes out, the market is saturated with the good prospects cards, thats where we get our bargains. I guess what I am trying to say is that if you want a quick buck, stick to high end products with big hits. If you want to prospect/invest in the future, then this is your product.

 

[Crash Davis]

If you arent collecting players for PC, the best thing to do is keep the stash of lower priced guys. No reason to list them and get 1.99 for an auto of an 18-20 year old kid.

This product has a long future ahead for it considering theres 150 guys not in the majors with most being a few years away.

This happens each and every year. Uninformed, lack of patience sellers think they have to dump all the cheap autos because theres no way they can turn into stars.

They panic thinking they sunk several hundred into a "dud" product and better recoup as much as they can RIGHT NOW just to be happy and lose a few hundred.

Wish I hadnt sold my Sandoval EEE autos for $15 but hey, I thought they cant be worth anything because they are a thrid year auto. Or Pedroia autos for $5 bucks. Or Gallardo for $8. Or Hughes for $6. Or Bailey for $5. Or Weiters for $40. Or Heyward for $25.

If these boxes need to be "$50 to be more reasonable" then 2009 BDP should be $10 a box.

Your assessment is a bit off the mark.

First of all, Homer Bailey was one of the more touted prospects in the 2004 EEE set, so I'm pretty sure they weren't $5 at product release. Having said that, Bailey had his 15 minutes of fame, and even then the EEE Bailey was no more than a $15 card.

Weiters @ $40 was an easy sell for those who broke wax and a much larger risk for those buyers to take on. Luckily it panned out for the buyers. But that's usually not the case.

Now, you highlight some of the autographs that appreciated in value somewhat, whether it be over time, or at one point in time; but what you failed to mention were the autographs you sold @ $10-15 that are worthless today. How about ummm...Trevor Plouffe or Chuck Lofgren or Eric Campbell?

The list of duds far outweighs the list of studs. I mean probably at a 15-1 clip or worse.

And another key point - prospecting was much more prevalent and profitable in 2004 than today (2009/10).

Yes go out and scoop up all the $1.99 autographs you can with the hopes that one guy pans out and turns your $1.99 investment into $20-25. But if you really do the math and factor in all of your losers (way more losers than winners) you will find that you probably aren't doing as well as you think.

 

[011873]

Theres no reason to blindly scoop up eery 1.99 auto, that s really obvious. Again, like I said, knowledge is key.

I bought a mess of Homer's for around $5 or so when they arrived and sold most at, I believe, $40 or so each.

I also cashed in nicely on Eric Campbell. Again, as I wrote, you also have to know when to sell.

Always will be bombs. Thats Baseball, thats Prospecting. I never bought a Pluoffe card for investment. Never saw anyting in him I liked. Light hitting guys dont do anything for me.

Its been like 5 years, but I think I bought a 4-5 card auto lot of Gallardo for less than $20 shipped when they arrived. I dont, as well as other prospectors dont throw our money arouind on anyone with a $2 auto.

Ive kept track of EVERY case Ive bought and opened since 2006 (only prospect products I buy) and I can honestly say that I have made money on every single one and still have somewhat of an invesntory left from them, some much more than others.

Bragging? Nope, not me. Just pointing out that if you know what you are doing, you can do well prospecting. Takes time, patience, knowledge and knowing when to sell and hold.

 

[mredsox89]

How can you break three boxes, not hit a single big card and complain about the product as a whole? I guarantee that if you ripped a case you would get more than the 16% return you got from your three boxes. The only way that doesn't happen is if you get in the bottom 5% of cases, and even then I'm fairly confident you would be able to sell the stuff for at least 20% of what you paid.

The only way you can make an assumption about a product as a whole is if you rip at least 1 case, if not multiple cases. Like any product, there are going to be bad boxes and bad cases. If you only rip a few boxes, you are likely to either hit it big or miss. The more you break, the more towards the middle your overall return is going to be.

 

[Codasco07]

I don't know anything about prospecting, but I know the flurry about busting this stuff is all about getting the Golden Ticket--an Albert Pujols auto. No one from here has pulled one yet--and they are all over the Box Break boards--and I haven't ckecked eBay yet, but when they hit the secondary market--wow! Pete Rose, Al Kaline, Mark Fidrych are nice, but they aren't the ones that people are ripping this stuff for. And Chapman is nice too--sell while he's in the news--but after that, this is something to wait and see with 90%+ of the autos.

I never saw why the inclusion of a Pujols auto was/is such a big draw. Albert has plenty of affordable autos that look much better than this one does. I'd be very surprised if people are busting quantities of this hoping for a Pujols auto. Is it nice? Sure. To me it's just like the dual Arod/Ripken in Bowman's Best or the Arod/Upton in BC.

 

[mredsox89]

I don't know anything about prospecting, but I know the flurry about busting this stuff is all about getting the Golden Ticket--an Albert Pujols auto. No one from here has pulled one yet--and they are all over the Box Break boards--and I haven't ckecked eBay yet, but when they hit the secondary market--wow! Pete Rose, Al Kaline, Mark Fidrych are nice, but they aren't the ones that people are ripping this stuff for. And Chapman is nice too--sell while he's in the news--but after that, this is something to wait and see with 90%+ of the autos.

I never saw why the inclusion of a Pujols auto was/is such a big draw. Albert has plenty of affordable autos that look much better than this one does. I'd be very surprised if people are busting quantities of this hoping for a Pujols auto. Is it nice? Sure. To me it's just like the dual Arod/Ripken in Bowman's Best or the Arod/Upton in BC.

Its the same scenario of people busting cases hoping to hit the Longoria Superfractor Auto from 06, or ever ripping in realistic hopes of pulling a superfractor. Sure, you can think to yourself it would be nice to pull a superfractor, but to factor that into your decision to purchase a box/case at all is not smart.

 

[prospectorgems]

I do have to admit, I thought the product was going to skyrocket in sales, I have been able to pick up my Brewers prospects for a fraction of what I thought they would sell for.