Do you think that sports card sales will stay strong or do you think a fall is coming?

[WizardofOz1982]

That was me, and not due to FOMO - it is legitimately a super tough card that is on an extremely short list of wants that I have. I've only seen 2 other copies in decent condition. This is a case of the print run not telling the whole story - the '98 Platinum you mentioned could very well be seen 10 times before we see another nice 97 Ultra plat. Good luck on your search! There is one with some snow ebay right now.

Are they really that tough? I think I've got 8 copies of the Jeff Frye 1997 Ultra Platinum (my spreadsheet says 6 but I've got 2 or 3 in a stack of stuff that hasn't gotten updated yet). Jeff is in Series 2 as well. There's one with a ton of snow on eBay right now. Do I really have the entire available print run? Universe sized questions lol.

 

[Set_Collector]

We have $B investors buying companies like PSA, P/E in firms like Topps, and now talk of SPACs getting involved. Long term play or short term gain? I think there is a lot of smart $ in the hobby for alternative investments - the question is will demand continue to keep and drive card prices up. One of the first comments in this thread discussed the transparency and ubiquitous manner that cards can be found and transacted upon, which is far better than what it was in the 90s and before. Aside from eBay, the sheer # of auction sites, and storefronts is amazing and good for the industry. Having a "stock market" or something similar to PSA's website on sale of cards on and outside of eBay which details the prices certain cards sold for will help further legitimize the industry, and provide greater transparency and trust to the buyers. How this affects demand is unknown, but will be good for the industry.

 

[mouschi]

Are they really that tough? I think I've got 8 copies of the Jeff Frye 1997 Ultra Platinum (my spreadsheet says 6 but I've got 2 or 3 in a stack of stuff that hasn't gotten updated yet). Jeff is in Series 2 as well. There's one with a ton of snow on eBay right now. Do I really have the entire available print run? Universe sized questions lol.

My understanding and experience (based upon Canseco and PSA pop report) shows that they are extremely tough - print run might be 200 but who knows how many actually survived?

 

[Shaggy]

I don’t think the bottom will just all of a sudden fall out, but I could see it leveling off some. I think this is the new norm for the most part.

I am a bit concerned however that Topps didn’t learn from the junk wax era and it will repeat itself. It’s so tempting to just produce more and more in the short term. I haven’t seen any production numbers, just what a few YouTube breakers have mentioned on their channels about how gold parallels are still #d for the year of release, but are harder to pull because more product was printed. Also, there’s just so many damn releases all year long. I’m speaking purely on baseball because that’s what I follow. Now you have Topps UK, bowman 1st edition, A/G chrome, stadium club chrome, Steve aoki, multiple high end releases and so on. Does a multi-colored patch or hof auto /10 really mean as much anymore when another one will be coming out in a few months?


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Panini is pushing alot of new product as well. Which is scary as its similar to the junk era but with more products in addition to more cards.

 

[Shaggy]

When a complete set of 1991 Score is over $100, this hobby has really gone off the rails. Sure, Mussina has an RC there but damn, I could buy 2 good bottles of whiskey and get more enjoyment from that. Oh, and whatever is left over gets spent on midget pr0n.

Its really that high now! Wow.

 

[Philip J. Fry]

Its really that high now! Wow.

It was on Mercari back in February. I was looking for a replacement for the set I lost when I was a kid and it was listed for $100. I emailed asking if it was a mistake and the seller tried justifying the price due to Mussina and Chipper Jones RCs.

 

[Shaggy]

It was on Mercari back in February. I was looking for a replacement for the set I lost when I was a kid and it was listed for $100. I emailed asking if it was a mistake and the seller tried justifying the price due to Mussina and Chipper Jones RCs.

You use Mercari?

 

[Philip J. Fry]

You use Mercari?

I've sold a few things there and was searching to see what else there was besides computers to sell.

 

[Set_Collector]

New Product values will be suspect because of all the previous comments. Vintage and graded vintage should hold high values - perhaps will level off - but in the long term should be solid choices.

 

[DeliciousBacon]

not to get nitpicky but the 2012 prizm trout bv has been fluctuating between 120 and 150 since last winter (i got 125 for mine when bv was 150 so fairly solid cash value) and box prices of junk wax era stuff are even higher than your example...just as another example , 2 years ago i bought 10 boxes of 91=92 fleer basketball ...paid $1 each...last month d&a had a "clearance sale" on them - at $209-229 per box...

Speaking of 2012 Prizm, I've noticed that some veterans from that set are going for relatively stupid money lately. Why? Well, some people decided that it was their "Prizm RC", which was dumb when they did it for Trout, and even worse when it's being done for Ichiro, or David Ortiz, or Buster Posey. But hey, if some idiot wants to pay me $15 for Derek Jeter's 20th season Prizm RC, I'll take his money. A few years back, I went to White Plains, and someone had a table of 2012 Prizm retail boxes they couldn't give away at $20; now that's a $1K box.

 

[SpCardfan]

This will not continue. It can't. When the market floods and it will with low quality cards used to fill demand. That cost will need to be recouped on the price of premium products. What is stopping Topps and Panini from selling direct? When/If Topps goes public athletes will demand more money for their autos. They'd be fools if they didn't. Professional sports is changing. Athletes are more vocal and pulling the curtain back so to say. How many auto's and napkins of one guy do you need?

 

[DeliciousBacon]

One of the guys in my office is one of those Reddit stock bros. He brags about his stocks all the time, all the money he makes, but apparently went from being up $10,000 to being a few grand in the hole in the span of a few days. Once the same thing starts happening to these new hobby "investors", that should help. MY LCS told me that retail prices are set for a 60% increase, at least for Topps, so it may not be worth it to camp out of Target anymore.

 

[gt2590]

A LCS I just stopped in had just stacks of recent baseball base Topps RCs at full “book” price.

And 6 90-91 Jordan base at $30 each.

Unsustainable IMO...

 

[gt2590]

One of the guys in my office is one of those Reddit stock bros. He brags about his stocks all the time, all the money he makes, but apparently went from being up $10,000 to being a few grand in the hole in the span of a few days. Once the same thing starts happening to these new hobby "investors", that should help. MY LCS told me that retail prices are set for a 60% increase, at least for Topps, so it may not be worth it to camp out of Target anymore.

The crypto currency guys are worse.

Some of them track every single dip/rise thru the app. Every single minute of the day. For hours on end...

 

[Benbabs]

Just tried to go to first local show here in Rochester since October of last year (they were able to do Sept and Oct), had a site that’s 3 times as big As usual spot last ten years. There was about 100 people in line and couple hundred cars in parking lot. Showed up an hour and a half into show hoping it would have been slower. I’m 99% into vintage and late 90s stuff. This is going to be weird for awhile.

 

[swish54_99]

Just tried to go to first local show here in Rochester since October of last year (they were able to do Sept and Oct), had a site that’s 3 times as big As usual spot last ten years. There was about 100 people in line and couple hundred cars in parking lot. Showed up an hour and a half into show hoping it would have been slower. I’m 99% into vintage and late 90s stuff. This is going to be weird for awhile.

If there were that many people there, hopefully local shows will start being more of a thing.

 

[smapdi]

It seems the very top-end might be cooling off (Darren Rovell posted that a 1986 Fleer BKB box sold for $250K, down from $360K a couple months ago, in rough numbers as an example) but there is pretty good strength on the plebeian part of the spectrum. At this point it seems like there's simple organic growth in the collector base willing to spend money on nice cards, not just people trying to suck value out of a stagnant market or paying ego-stroking amounts for the bluest chip items. Things will inevitably cool off again but I'm not sure we're even at the top of this wave yet. It will be interesting to see how Topps and Panini increase their print runs over the next year. I think a good market indicator will be when retail product is reliably available again.

We went to a show in San Antonio this past Saturday, which they hold every 2-3 months, and it's grown quite a bit each time. They had more tables than ever and when we walked in around 1130 in the morning it was very crowded. Everyone was wearing masks, which was good, but lots of tight packing in front of every table. Not sure how big this one was, maybe 100 tables. But I heard their July show is going to have 200 tables and is sold out to dealers already. While the same guys had the same $50,000 Luka cards I've been seeing for the past year, there were lots of sales in the low-mid-end. Seemed like pretty much every dealer was doing well. Plus it was a "collector's" show rather than exclusively sports. A good comics table, quite a bit of Pokemon, some toys, and sports at every price point. Magic is the only thing missing, for me, makes me wonder about setting up my own table to test those waters, maybe in the fall. But anyway, there were lots of dealers with stuff to sell and plenty of customers to buy it. Felt like the hobby was genuinely back to where it was in the early 90s.

 

[PeteD]

It was on Mercari back in February. I was looking for a replacement for the set I lost when I was a kid and it was listed for $100. I emailed asking if it was a mistake and the seller tried justifying the price due to Mussina and Chipper Jones RCs.

pretty sure there's an awesome Bo Jackson insert (not the b&w duh)...you guys like me who've been around and sorted endless boxes know what i'm talking aboot.

 

[gt2590]

 

[mrmopar]

I see some softening on newer stuff, especially as more copies continue to "flood" the market. Case in point, although I have yet to nab one yet. 2021 Heritage Garvey auto. The base is a $20-25 card in my opinion. This is based solely on my experience with Garvey autos. I know that Heritage is a very popular set, but the card does not appear to be that hard to find, yet copies first hitting the market were topping $100. I see this with all of the new Garvey stuff. all of the sudden after YEARS of very little competition for most everything that hits the market, people are throwing money at Garvey cards. It doesn't always stand out, because we are not talking Trout or Jordan totals, but it is seriously higher than it should be.

Now I am seeing a lot of Heritage autos ending up in the $50 range. I had been offering $45 plus s/h to a variety of people selling with BO, but nobody has taken it and several have countered. Now that they have seemingly cooled, my $45 offer is no longer of interest to me. I am thinking maybe $30-35, but I bet if I wait long enough, I can nab a copy at $20. It just may be in 2022.

Now the red ink version is 72 copies. I have said this several times already, 72 might as well be 10,000 in todays market. That is not "limited". It is, but it isn't, anyone collecting for many years will understand. We have reset our expectations since 1991 nd the 10K Elites, which coincidentally are still outperforming most nevwer cards with print runs of 100 or less. Explain that goofy one. i have yet to see a red sell for under $100. To me, that is just stupid. Again, any other year and a Garvey auto /75 should settle into the $15-20 range. Give it a little boost, being a collectible set and red inks are well collected. The Clubhouse relic/Au is /25. That should be a $40 max auto. Most are listed at $200+.

I think all of this will self correct sooner than later and leave a bunch of people crying about their buys. My favorite example is the Zach McKinstry scenario. When I was first trying to get him, as he is one of 3 I still need for the Dodger roster collection, I was missing out at somewhere between $10-35 (for the red /25). Now base cards are selling for $100+ and reds have sold for as high as $300! I thought the Panini issue would water that down and I was again missing them in the $12-15 range, before those spiked to over $100 each too! Scratching my head, wondering how there are actually that many clueless people out there buying these up. I hope for everyone's sake that I am wrong (except me), but mark my words, these will fall in price fiercely.

Last thought. I watched the Jackie Robinson Leaf RC slowly and steadily rise into the 5 figure range and then in the last couple months start to skyrocket. I just happen to check when PWCC was selling (2) PSA 4 copies and one went for $35K and the other around $28K. This was a sharp increase from the last sale a month earlier that were in the high teens. As I was telling non-collecting neighbors about this crazy climb, I decided to look for any more recent sales of the same PSA 4 Robinson and was surprised/disappointed/or whatever else comes to mind that they had DROPPED, the last couple selling in the low - mid $20K range! If any card deserved it's meteoric rise, I felt it was this one. Of course, it seems PWCC is the only seller selling copies of this card and they had a bunch. I am not in the market to sell mine quite yet but it was fun to say I had a $35K card if for only a bit.