Heritage High Auto Prices

[craftysouthpaw]

I am really intrigued by this set and how it has played out so far. A good case study for manufacturers and collectors alike. As last year showed, it has the potential to be a homerun. This year, not so much. I started an earlier thread that tried to analyze relatve print runs of the autos and this thread attempts to show realized prices to date.

It has been live now for a little over two weeks and I have only compiled completed sales for 177 blue autos. Folks speculated on my earlier thread that the print run was between 5000 - 7000 sets and if so, we can conclude that either (a) the direct sales have been dismal, (b) folks are hoarding sealed sets hoping to see a repeat of last year or (c) a combination of both. I think it is pretty clear a repeat of last year ain't happening so I'm curious to see if more autos start to go up for sale.

In addition to the 177 blues, I have seen 27 red sales which would suggest an average print run of ~65 blue autos per player. If that is the case, the print run would have to be much lower than 5000 - 7000 sets. More like the 2000 - 2500 range (65 blue + 10 red x 30 players = 2250). It is likely this data is too small of a sample size and not random enough to draw too many conclusions on print run. But it is interesting to look at. Also, whatever the average number of blues per player, it is obvious that most of the bigger names are significantly short printed to somewere along the lines of 25% or less of the higher runs. And some, such as Puig, seem to be severely short printed. While those totals may very well be off, I'm pretty sure the relative runs are pretty close to reality.

If I had to guess, I would pin the print run at about 4000 sets with the explanation for the lack of autos on the market being a combination of weak sales and people holding sealed sets.

Enough rambling - here are the average realized prices I've seen so far along with the number of copies (there has been one Puig blue sold but it was for best offer and I'm not smart enought to figure out how to see those amounts anymore - it listed for $1200):

[TABLE="width: 231"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 161, bgcolor: transparent"]Blue:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 19, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Manny Machado
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$111.77
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Wil Myers
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$99.74
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jose Fernandez
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$65.43
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jurickson Profar
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$55.49
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Gerrit Cole
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$52.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Ryu
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$50.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jackie Bradley
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$49.95
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Shelby Miller
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$48.43
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Evan Gattis
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$40.29
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Zach Wheeler
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$30.47
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jedd Gyorko
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$29.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Anthony Rendon
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$28.24
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Mike Zunino
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$26.15
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Aaron Hicks
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$21.99
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Kevin Gausman
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$21.57
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Tony Cingrani
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$20.48
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Nick Franklin
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$19.54
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Darin Ruf
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$19.47
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]14
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Kyuji Fujikawa
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$18.32
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Didi Gregorius
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$14.45
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Adam Eaton
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$14.14
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]10
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Bruce Rondon
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$13.69
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Mike Olt
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$13.25
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Paco Rodriguez
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$13.16
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Marcell Ozuna
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$12.68
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Brandon Maurer
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$12.22
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Adeiny Hechavarria
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$11.55
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Casey Kelly
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$11.51
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]177
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Red:
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jose Fernandez
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$609.98
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Mike Zunino
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$142.86
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Ryu
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$123.63
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Evan Gattis
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$112.40
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jurickson Profar
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$108.00
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Zach Wheeler
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$102.98
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Anthony Rendon
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$76.99
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Aaron Hicks
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$74.88
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Tony Cingrani
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$84.50
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Jedd Gyorko
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$72.49
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Paco Rodriguez
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$57.49
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Adam Eaton
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$52.99
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Darin Ruf
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$55.54
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Adeiny Hechavarria
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$44.94
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Nick Franklin
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]$39.01
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]27
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Erich]

Thanks for the info. I love following stuff like this.
RWIW the sets are still on sale at Topps.Com

 

[craftysouthpaw]

Thanks for the info. I love following stuff like this.
RWIW the sets are still on sale at Topps.Com

I have a feeling they will have them for awhile.

A Gyorko red sold for $158 yesterday.