HOF debate: Josh Hamilton

[markakis8]

Now before everyone starts freaking out and says "he hasn't even played 10 years yet" or "no way he started too late" or "I don't want druggies in the HOF (which is a laughable statement knowing who is in the HOF), I think his unique situation (his mired past with drugs and suspensions and the sheer talent this guy has) enables to play the "hypothetical" game.

He will be turning 32 in a couple weeks and I really only see him playing 6-7 more years after this year.

Anything could happen in the next 4 1/2 months but it appears Josh Hamilton is going to have a historic season. So let's assume the best (just for debate's sake) and say he wins the Triple Crown (50+ HR 120+ RBI), MVP and the Rangers win the World Series. That would put him AROUND .320 AVG, 900 H, 170 HR 550 RBI 950ish OPS for his career

So already on his resume would be: 2 MVP's, 2 batting crowns, HR crown, 2 RBI crowns, 3 silver sluggers, WS title (3 appearances) and of course the Triple Crown.

Now let's say over the next 7 years he AVERAGES (regardless of how healthy he is in those 7 years, these are his averages): .310 150 H 30 HR 100 RBI 950 OPS

His career #'s would be around: .315 AVG 2000 H 380 HR 1250 RBI .950 OPS

I normally don't like to play the "hypothetical" HOF game when a player hasn't even met the required 10 years of service but with the season he's having already, his checkered past, and the undeniable fact that this guy is the most talented ballplayer to come along since a kid name Griffey, I feel it's worth a discussion.

His career numbers would fall short, but does he get in on a little over a decade of pure dominance?

 

[ChasHawk]

no

 

[koal]

he will be hurt soon

 

[gmarutiak]

Heroin is not better than steroids, so NO.

 

[matfanofold]

There is so many factors of wild speculation even needed to begin this debate I'm not sure what could even be said right now.

 

[markakis8]

There is so many factors of wild speculation even needed to begin this debate I'm not sure what could even be said right now.

I laid out what could potentially happen. Go from there.

 

[trevordchi]

It's laughable to suggest someone could win a triple crown on May 12.

 

[matfanofold]

I laid out what could potentially happen. Go from there.

But that's just the thing, in order to speculate he is going to win a triple crown, world series title(s), MVP's, batting crowns, and then put up a .310/30/100 stat line for the next 6 or seven years is just to far fetched conjecture for me to even consider as anything but fantasy right now. Yet, to play along, if Hamilton can somehow achieve everything you say, and remain a hugely popular player (as he is now) then he will be debatable. Unfortunately for me it would take everything you have layed out and possibly more to even enter the discussion. But i guess more to the point, and perhaps to answer your real question, I do not think getting enshrined in to the HOF is impossible for Hamilton, just it's so far away from even beginning the debate.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

DiMaggio or Koufax only played about a dozen years and are solid HOFers, so why not. Koufax only dominated for five or six years.

 

[jbmm161]

With Josh it begins and ends with him staying healthy.
If he can put up great numbers then it is not out of the question to make the HOF or win a Triple Crown.
My bigger concerns are does he stay a Texas Ranger and does he continue to stay away from the demons that haunted him.

 

[leatherman]

Possibly. I never thought Jim Rice would get in, and Rice had similar numbers as you postulate for Hamilton. Rice finished in the top 5 of the MVP voting six times, winning once, and had a ten year run where he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

I think Dave Parker was a better player than Jim Rice (he was certainly a better fielder, and one of the most feared hitters as well), but his drug involvement cost him some of the most productive years of a baseball player's career. He too had one MVP, and finished in the top 5 five times. He just used up all 15 years on the HOF ballot, getting a high of 24.5% in 1998 and a low of 10.3% in 2003. He received 15% in each of his last 3 years on the ballot.

The difference between Parker (and Darryl Strawberry, for that matter) and Hamilton is that drugs derailed Parker (and Strawberry) when they were already established stars. Hamilton dealt with his as an unknown, and then became a star. Like it or not, people (including HOF voters) are much less forgiving of a player who "throws it all away", so Hamilton has a better shot than Parker did, and Parker hung around the balloting for a long time.

 

[homerun28aa]

There is no chance Hamilton is a HOFer. As someone said the triple crown this year is a huge assumption. The Rangers are playing well I could see them winning the WS this year and I could see Hamilton winning another MVP definitely but talking about him in the HOF is pretty ridiculous. He isn't a HOFer and I'm on your side with the drug use, I don't think it will be a negative for him in terms of HOF voting. And like you said his numbers do fall short even with your presumptions and I don't see anything that would justify putting him in otherwise if he doesn't have typical HOF numbers

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

If he stays clean his past drug use will only serve to promote his candidacy even further; he'd be a role model all the more.

 

[Frow]

It's laughable to suggest someone could win a triple crown on May 12.

Agreed.

However for argument sake the only thing that would bring the conversation up at all is if he did manage to win it. I could see the logic being that no other Triple Crown winner since the 1900's did not make the HoF and its something so difficult to do it hasn't been done in over 40 years..ect. There's really nothing else going for him at this point

 

[Nate Colbert 17]

It's laughable to suggest someone could win a triple crown on May 12.

It wasn't laughable in 1973!

(...but your comment on Josh Hamilton remains valid!)

 

[thefatguy]

no

.

 

[Rocketman12]

In football a short career with undeniable talent and a high peak can get you into the Hall of Fame, but rarely so in baseball. For the Baseball Hall of Fame you need gaudy career numbers, especially if you're an outfielder, and Hamilton will fall short even if he is great for the next 5-7 years. Consider, from the start of this season, he would have to average 177 H, 45 HR, and 140 RBI per season for 7 seasons to reach Juan Gonzalez's career numbers. Yes, Juan Gone has the steroid issue, but he fell off the ballot this past year. The career numbers just aren't there, and Hamilton seems unlikely to reach even those totals.

 

[markakis8]

There is no chance Hamilton is a HOFer. As someone said the triple crown this year is a huge assumption. The Rangers are playing well I could see them winning the WS this year and I could see Hamilton winning another MVP definitely but talking about him in the HOF is pretty ridiculous. He isn't a HOFer and I'm on your side with the drug use, I don't think it will be a negative for him in terms of HOF voting. And like you said his numbers do fall short even with your presumptions and I don't see anything that would justify putting him in otherwise if he doesn't have typical HOF numbers

It's all hypothetical. I mean, do I think he could make the HOF? Sure. But he's a definite longshot. I know that. But I'm not talking about Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, or Joey Votto here. Guys that are the best in the game today but who knows where they will be in 12 years. I'm talking about a guy that is by far the most talented ballplayer in the game today and it isn't even a debate. And if he dominates the league like he has shown us in his MVP year and so far this year, witch his checkered past, is it possible he could make the HOF with only 11-13 years of his career?

The key to me making this thread is how late he started his career plus his heavy drug use that inhibited his opportunity to come up as a Devil Ray. We all know how dumb and naive writers can be when it comes to putting someone in the HOF. I really think the drug use would hurt Hamilton's chances if he puts up the numbers I proposed in my 1st post.

 

[markakis8]

In football a short career with undeniable talent and a high peak can get you into the Hall of Fame, but rarely so in baseball. For the Baseball Hall of Fame you need gaudy career numbers, especially if you're an outfielder, and Hamilton will fall short even if he is great for the next 5-7 years. Consider, from the start of this season, he would have to average 177 H, 45 HR, and 140 RBI per season for 7 seasons to reach Juan Gonzalez's career numbers. Yes, Juan Gone has the steroid issue, but he fell off the ballot this past year. The career numbers just aren't there, and Hamilton seems unlikely to reach even those totals.

Two different completely situations, IMO. Hamilton is the complete package and I would think if you polled all of the players/managers in the MLB, plus all the writers, you would find that Hamilton is the most TALENTED baseball player. Everything he does is effortless. Juan Gonzalez was just a great hitter from what I remember.

Also, Gonzalez played in the steroid era where Greg Vaughn and Brady Anderson hit 50 HR. Hamilton isn't.

 

[noaskiecards]

hamilton is good but hes no griffey, arod or harper - his past is a great story but not a hof story