HOF discussion: Andruw Jones

[Mozzie22]

He's borderline.

But, I don't personally think he should be included.

People talk about 500 HR's being the benchmark. I have a different benchmark: .500. If you are a slugger who's played at least 80% of your career after the 1996 offensive boom, you need to have a career slugging percentage of at least .500 to get in. Every year 50 players slug .500. If you can't even average .500 for your career and you don't play in a premium offensive position like 2nd base or catcher, then you shouldn't be a Hall of Famer. Heck, even Shawn Green slugged .494 for his career. .500 should be the minimum for any slugger who has played most of his career in the late 90's and 00's. Frank Thomas has done it. Barry Bonds has done it. Ken Griffey Jr. has done it. Arod has done it. Heck, even Fred McGriff (another borderline HOF) has done it. I'm not going to call any power hitter who can't slug .500 in this day and age a "slugger" if he can't slug .500.

Andruw Jones' OBP and batting averages are atrocious. His only claim to the HOF is his defense and his "slugging." I'm not a fan of stat accumulation. To me, averaging a .550 slugging percentage is more impressive than 500 HR's in this day and age. A lot of Andruw Jones' HR's come from getting a lot of at-bats and switching for the fences all the time. I never saw him as a premium offensive player.

Edit: Here is a list of current players with career slugging percentages near Andruw Jones or higher: Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Lee, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena, Raul Ibanez. This is the class of slugger that Andruw Jones is in.

What if Jermaine Dye played defense like Jim Edmonds or Ichiro for his entire career. Andruw Jones' defense during that run was superior to either of those two guys.

I'm glad you brought up Jim Edmonds. If Jones is a HOF'r is Edmonds? They have very similar career numbers only Edmonds has a much higher BA. Both were outstanding defensive players and the power numbers are very similar. Just curious what you guys thought.

 

[bodiaz]

If he wins 3 MVPs in a row I say yes. Otherwise, No.

 

[craftysouthpaw]

Great topic and thank you pigskincardboard and ballerskrip for injecting some objectivity to this discussion. If Andruw has 2 or 3 more good seasons (say 120+ games, 20+ homers, 800+ OPS), he should be a lock and if he retired today, he should be borderline at worst. But should and will are obviously too different things. With 2 or 3 more good seasons, I would say in reality he will be 50/50 and he would have virtually no shot if he retired today.

It likely will depend upon how accurate the most recently available defensive metrics turn out to be combined with how educated the electorate becomes on said metrics.

Every advanced metric out there today has Andruw as historically incredible defensively - most signs point to the 2nd best CF EVER. As a CF, that alone should warrant significant consideration for the HOF for the exact same reasons guys like Ozzie, Brooks, Aparicio, and Maz are in - amazing defense at a premium position. It just can't be understated how many runs this guy saved with his glove.

He certainly has some glaring flaws offensively (but I would have hoped using batting average as a primary way to evaluate someone offensively would have gone the way of the dodo by now) but for a guy with his defensive chops, the almost 400 homeruns should push him well beyond the threshold.

Right now, Baseball Prospectus has Andruw as the 9th best CF of all time (see 1st chart below). And that isn't good enough to make the HOF?!?! If he plays 5 more years, he will be either 7th or 8th. His Fielding Runs Above Average (another BP created metric) as a CF is second only to Mays and there is quite a gap to #3 when only considering time spent in CF (Andruw is at 182 as a CF but 167 in total counting games played in LF, RF, and 1B). The link to beyondtheboxscore.com contains a separate analysis with a similar conclusion.

If Andrew was an average CF from a defensive standpoint, his offensive contributions would and should keep him out of the HOF. But his defense is almost impossible to deny at this point, and he is probably one of the 5 best defenders at any position to ever play the game. The HOF will be worse off without him there.

Of course, most of the HOF voters are stodgy old men who haven't heard of any new ways to evaluate players since RBI's were defined. This is how guys like Dawson and Rice get in - analyzing the wrong numbers and creating narratives in hindsight or out of thin air (such as "Jim Rice was the most feared slugger for over 10 years" - yet he wasn't even the best OF on his own team). I'm happy for those guys they got in but any reasoned analysis leaves them far shy of the mark.

Finally, I am almost never shocked anymore at the names that end up tarnished by steroids. But Andruw would be one of the few left that would shock me. The guy was notorious for never working out and steroids don't do a lick of good if you aren't lifting. The whole reason his career took such a dive the last few years is because of how fat he got. I really hope the weight he lost this year pays off and he erases any doubts.

And for those that mention Edmonds, see where his name pops up below and you will know what my useless and unsolicited opinions are!

Like I said, good discussion and if anyone has data to the contrary, I am certainly open to changing my mind.


Player EqA RARP RAP FRAA Career Peak JAWS
Willie Mays* .330 1227 872 217 161.3 75.0 118.2
Ty Cobb* .330 1207 847 -10 139.1 70.3 104.7
Tris Speaker* .320 932 604 114 122.6 61.0 91.8
Mickey Mantle* .342 1067 804 -58 112.5 66.3 89.4
Joe DiMaggio* .326 705 494 54 87.0 60.1 73.6
Ken Griffey .301 791 467 -83 79.7 51.9 65.8
Jim Edmonds .300 548 327 102 72.2 51.1 61.7
Billy Hamilton* .305 453 250 56 66.2 46.5 56.4
AVG HoF CF .306 563 308 19 68.3 44.0 56.1
Andruw Jones .278 366 127 182 61.3 47.4 54.4
Richie Ashburn* .288 399 124 121 61.6 46.9 54.3
George Gore .294 337 164 88 62.5 44.6 53.6
Carlos Beltran .290 422 219 95 57.1 48.1 52.6
Jimmy Wynn .304 521 285 -2 57.1 47.6 52.4
Andre Dawson* .285 527 190 -11 59.6 40.2 49.9
Bernie Williams .291 533 274 -32 57.3 40.9 49.1

Player FRAA
Willie Mays 220
Andruw Jones 167
Paul Blair 164
Curt Flood 160
Chet Lemon 139
Devon White 138
Richie Ashburn 115
Tris Speaker 112
Dom DiMaggio 103
Mike Griffin 103
Willie Davis 101
Fielder Jones 100
Gary Pettis 99
Carlos Beltran 94
Mike Cameron 94
Garry Maddox 94
Jim Edmonds 93
Jim Piersall 93
George Gore 91
Jimmy McAleer 91


http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2 ... rs-do-they

 

[Austin]

I always liked Andruw Jones and was happy when he came to the Rangers.
Too bad he's been terrible the last few years.
I don't think he'll make the Hall of Fame unless he makes a monumental comeback (like he may be doing this season).
Here's a picture of his wife, son and some of his Gold Glove Awards and noteworthy balls:

 

[jbone17]

Right now, NO. 5-7 years down the road and he gets 500 HR and 2,800 hits, than maybe.

 

[Sly]

He's borderline.

But, I don't personally think he should be included.

People talk about 500 HR's being the benchmark. I have a different benchmark: .500. If you are a slugger who's played at least 80% of your career after the 1996 offensive boom, you need to have a career slugging percentage of at least .500 to get in. Every year 50 players slug .500. If you can't even average .500 for your career and you don't play in a premium offensive position like 2nd base or catcher, then you shouldn't be a Hall of Famer. Heck, even Shawn Green slugged .494 for his career. .500 should be the minimum for any slugger who has played most of his career in the late 90's and 00's. Frank Thomas has done it. Barry Bonds has done it. Ken Griffey Jr. has done it. Arod has done it. Heck, even Fred McGriff (another borderline HOF) has done it. I'm not going to call any power hitter who can't slug .500 in this day and age a "slugger" if he can't slug .500.

Andruw Jones' OBP and batting averages are atrocious. His only claim to the HOF is his defense and his "slugging." I'm not a fan of stat accumulation. To me, averaging a .550 slugging percentage is more impressive than 500 HR's in this day and age. A lot of Andruw Jones' HR's come from getting a lot of at-bats and switching for the fences all the time. I never saw him as a premium offensive player.

Edit: Here is a list of current players with career slugging percentages near Andruw Jones or higher: Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Lee, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena, Raul Ibanez. This is the class of slugger that Andruw Jones is in.

What if Jermaine Dye played defense like Jim Edmonds or Ichiro for his entire career. Andruw Jones' defense during that run was superior to either of those two guys.

I'm glad you brought up Jim Edmonds. If Jones is a HOF'r is Edmonds? They have very similar career numbers only Edmonds has a much higher BA. Both were outstanding defensive players and the power numbers are very similar. Just curious what you guys thought.

Agreed, thank you for brining up Edmonds. Here are their career stats:

Jones vs. Edmonds:

G - 1931 vs. 1938
H - 1788 vs. 1896
2B - 357 vs 421
HR - 394 vs. 383
RBI - 1183 vs. 1181
BA - .258 vs. .285
OBP - .339 vs. .377
SLG - .490 vs. .528
GG - 10 vs. 8
AS Games - 5 vs. 4
Top 10 MVP Finishes - 2 vs. 2

In nearly an identical number of games, their stats are nearly identical, with Edmonds having the edge in the "key" numbers (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS).

I don't think anyone can argue that Edmonds was just as good as, if not better, defensively than Jones. So I ask this question to all...is Jim Edmonds a HOFer??

 

[kdailey4315]

Are there any players in the HOF aside from pitchers and players prior to 1931 that have not won a MVP award?

 

[donrusscrusademan]

theres a lot of speculation about Jones here. if he was retiring at the end of the year, then we would really get into this.
but clearly a lot of things can happen from here. he could suck for 3 years and kill his OBP, and lose support, or he could get back on track and have some more 35-40 hr seasons, or somewhere in between.

for those who are saying "absolutely no way" are not really giving enough considerations to any possibilities. he already is doing great, and whats stopping him from keeping it up... he 48 year old body? he is 33.

 

[donrusscrusademan]

theres a lot of speculation about Jones here. if he was retiring at the end of the year, then we would really get into this.
but clearly a lot of things can happen from here. he could suck for 3 years and kill his OBP, and lose support, or he could get back on track and have some more 35-40 hr seasons, or somewhere in between.

for those who are saying "absolutely no way" are not really giving enough considerations to any possibilities. he already is doing great, and whats stopping him from keeping it up... he 48 year old body? he is 33.

but to be successful he really needs to work with the jacks. adding HRs is the key to go with those GGs.

and no way 600 is the new 500. maybe for the roid era but thats going to down due to "36 is the new 40" theres going to be less old men smacking around the ball

 

[markakis8]

Nearly identical Sly and yet, once again, I add - Andruw is 33. Edmonds will be lucky if he sees 400 AB's in his FINAL year.

But yes, with the recent influx of "good" OF inducted into the HOF (Rice, Dawson, etc.) I would put Edmonds in.

Agreed, thank you for brining up Edmonds. Here are their career stats:

Jones vs. Edmonds:

G - 1931 vs. 1938
H - 1788 vs. 1896
2B - 357 vs 421
HR - 394 vs. 383
RBI - 1183 vs. 1181
BA - .258 vs. .285
OBP - .339 vs. .377
SLG - .490 vs. .528
GG - 10 vs. 8
AS Games - 5 vs. 4
Top 10 MVP Finishes - 2 vs. 2

In nearly an identical number of games, their stats are nearly identical, with Edmonds having the edge in the "key" numbers (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS).

I don't think anyone can argue that Edmonds was just as good as, if not better, defensively than Jones. So I ask this question to all...is Jim Edmonds a HOFer??

 

[markakis8]

MANY.

Eddie Murray and Paul Molitor immediately come to mind. Tony Gwynn is another. I don't think Jim Rice won one (don't quote me on that). Ozzie Smith. List goes on.

Are there any players in the HOF aside from pitchers and players prior to 1931 that have not won a MVP award?

 

[kdailey4315]

MANY.

Eddie Murray and Paul Molitor immediately come to mind. Tony Gwynn is another. I don't think Jim Rice won one (don't quote me on that). Ozzie Smith. List goes on.

Are there any players in the HOF aside from pitchers and players prior to 1931 that have not won a MVP award?

Okay I was just curious. Hard to believe Gwynn never won one. I guess that what happens when you only hit 135 career HR's.

 

[chisox1917]

Absolutely gets my vote. Defense is the main reason, but to rehash previous points - the power production was unreal for like a 10-year period.

He was on pace for 600+ home runs, if not for his recent slipups. Not to mention, the Chisox got him on a bargain (while he's hitting lights out) this season .

 

[jgro85]

If Andre Dawson and Jim Rice got in, Andruw gets in.

 

[henderson939]

Sly, nice job with the stats. I think that Mattingly should be in based on his stats compared to Pucketts. As far as Jones, I think he is barely borderline, but probably doesnt get in. The batting average is killer. The game was different when Ozzie Smith played, so you cant compare the two. To me, Jones is like the Rob Deer type player of the 90's offensively. Defensively, he was one the best of that era. Since the talk is about a Brave getting to the Hall, why no love for the great Fred Mcgriff. That is a class act who deserves to be in.

 

[markakis8]

One of the dumbest comparisons ever. Dave Kingman wasn't even as bad as Rob Deer. If you take away Andruw's past 3 years of horrendous laziness and he's a career .266 hitter. And even with 3 atrocious years he is .258 hitter.

Rob Deer hit .220 for his CAREER.

The batting average is killer. The game was different when Ozzie Smith played, so you cant compare the two. To me, Jones is like the Rob Deer type player of the 90's offensively.

 

[bodiaz]

If Andre Dawson and Jim Rice got in, Andruw gets in.

And that sir is my problem with Andre Dawson and Jim Rice being in. The standard just gets lower and lower. Next it will be "Is Torri Hunter a HOFer?" Answer, "If Andruw Jones is in, he has to be." Where does it end? None of these guys mentioned should be HOFers.

 

[matfanofold]

If Andre Dawson and Jim Rice got in, Andruw gets in.

And that sir is my problem with Andre Dawson and Jim Rice being in. The standard just gets lower and lower. Next it will be "Is Torri Hunter a HOFer?" Answer, "If Andruw Jones is in, he has to be." Where does it end? None of these guys mentioned should be HOFers.

Dawson and Rice were both among the best of their generation, 'face of the game' type players and leaders of their respective teams. Jones is none of that. Statisticly they can be compared, but that is where the comparison ends and Jones falls short. It's the hall of fame, not the hall of stats. There are many more factors involved in voting besides stats. And Jones has none of them.

 

[bodiaz]

If Andre Dawson and Jim Rice got in, Andruw gets in.

And that sir is my problem with Andre Dawson and Jim Rice being in. The standard just gets lower and lower. Next it will be "Is Torri Hunter a HOFer?" Answer, "If Andruw Jones is in, he has to be." Where does it end? None of these guys mentioned should be HOFers.

Dawson and Rice were both among the best of their generation, 'face of the game' type players and leaders of their respective teams. Jones is none of that. Statisticly they can be compared, but that is where the comparison ends and Jones falls short. It's the hall of fame, not the hall of stats.

Take Jim Rice out of Fenway and he becomes average. Dawson was not even good enough to carry a team. He very rarely made the playoffs. Even his "MVP" season I blieve the Cubs finished 4th! How can you be valuable when the team is 4th?!?! What, they would have been 5th without him? Without that MVP, he does not make the HOF.

 

[matfanofold]

If Andre Dawson and Jim Rice got in, Andruw gets in.

And that sir is my problem with Andre Dawson and Jim Rice being in. The standard just gets lower and lower. Next it will be "Is Torri Hunter a HOFer?" Answer, "If Andruw Jones is in, he has to be." Where does it end? None of these guys mentioned should be HOFers.

Dawson and Rice were both among the best of their generation, 'face of the game' type players and leaders of their respective teams. Jones is none of that. Statisticly they can be compared, but that is where the comparison ends and Jones falls short. It's the hall of fame, not the hall of stats.

Take Jim Rice out of Fenway and he becomes average. Dawson was not even good enough to carry a team. He very rarely made the playoffs. Even his "MVP" season I blieve the Cubs finished 4th! How can you be valuable when the team is 4th?!?! What, they would have been 5th without him? Without that MVP, he does not make the HOF.

Unfortunately, it takes more than one great player to ensure team sucess. Also, "what if.." scenerios are fruitless. Thankfully the voters have a solid sence of reality and do not base a player on the teams worth as a whole nor do the play the scenerio game to negate accomplishment.