Long term investment potential of...

[Topnotchsy]

The question didn't fit into the title, so here goes...

Every now and then, a player comes along who has a rookie card that is not from a mainstream (read: sets like BC, BDP, BS, SPx etc. that are known for RC cards) set, and many times cards like these catch fire. A couple of examples include the 2001 Topps Reserve Albert Pujols Retail autograph (which at one point in time sold for near what his BC Auto got at around $2000 I believe) and 2001 Donruss Signature Auto's /25. Some people look at these cards and correctly say that as time goes on they will be near impossible to find, mostly buried in personal collections.

While the above statement (that they rarely see the light of day for sale) is definitely true, the question becomes, "are these cards good long term investments?"

I was looking at a specific card (on eBay) today that fits this mold (2001 Leaf R&S Pujols Auto) and I had to wonder if the fact that the card is so rare is offset by the fact that many people may not even know the card exists, and the longer we move from the time the card is released, the less likely people will remember the card.

Personally based on my observations, I'm leaning toward saying that in such a case, most of these cards are not great investments, which is why I think I am going to pass on the Pujols Leaf Rookies and Stars Auto on eBay, despite the fact it is seriously SP'd and was once a huge card. That said, I'd love to hear opinions, (and if anyone feels I am incorrect in my thoughts, they might find a decent deal on the card mentioned.)

 

[gomatt]

I don't have time to comment on this topic right now, but I must say that you have the best posts of anyone on this board.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

The hobby becomes seriously dull if one always has to stop and think of investment potential prior to buying cards. If you have to wonder about investment potential first than you should not be buying the card (unless you are a dealer), you should be investing in better places - chances are you would be 'renting' that card until you need the cash back anyway which really sucks as it takes away from your PC.

But placing that common wisdom that you know all too well aside, the biggest question you should ask is whether or not you actually LIKE or ENJOY the card. If you like the look and enjoy the R&S card more than the alternatives, you should buy that card...but this makes sense because why the heck would you want to buy a card you don't like??? This is all common sense I guess, but it seems to address your question best.

 

[95vr4]

I'd say David Wright 02 Bowman Chrome Auto is the best investment right now, the Mets will make a serious run in 2009, his cards will only go up. (But don't know the long team by definition. 1 yr, 3 yrs, or 5 yrs?)

Pujols has achieved almost every possible reward in 7 years. His card has reached its potential IMO, it probably won't go up that much before another world series.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

There was a good period there where Pujols 2001 Bowman Chrome autographs were pulling almost 3X what they are now. And that time is long gone. His raw 2001 Upper Deck rookies were selling at $120. But that time is also gone.

In this hobby "investment" is a relative term as there are constantly new variables coming into play.

For me, the only "long term investments" are vintage. Prospects have amazing short-term investment potential, but almost no long-term investment potential...even if the player "makes it big."

Rarely, if ever, will a player's cards again reach the heights when the singles peaked.

To me, players like Pujols, Wright, etc...have long since peaked and are done. Sure, you're probably not going to lose anything on them but you also won't be bringing in 5-10% annual increases either.

 

[Lars]

The people whom you are marketing the card to probably shrinks, but then maybe there is more demand among those few high-end collectors [likely die-hard player collectors] who do not have the cards you speak off and are looking to pick it up because it is their white whales.

The question didn't fit into the title, so here goes...

Every now and then, a player comes along who has a rookie card that is not from a mainstream (read: sets like BC, BDP, BS, SPx etc. that are known for RC cards) set, and many times cards like these catch fire. A couple of examples include the 2001 Topps Reserve Albert Pujols Retail autograph (which at one point in time sold for near what his BC Auto got at around $2000 I believe) and 2001 Donruss Signature Auto's /25. Some people look at these cards and correctly say that as time goes on they will be near impossible to find, mostly buried in personal collections.

While the above statement (that they rarely see the light of day for sale) is definitely true, the question becomes, "are these cards good long term investments?"

I was looking at a specific card (on eBay) today that fits this mold (2001 Leaf R&S Pujols Auto) and I had to wonder if the fact that the card is so rare is offset by the fact that many people may not even know the card exists, and the longer we move from the time the card is released, the less likely people will remember the card.

Personally based on my observations, I'm leaning toward saying that in such a case, most of these cards are not great investments, which is why I think I am going to pass on the Pujols Leaf Rookies and Stars Auto on eBay, despite the fact it is seriously SP'd and was once a huge card. That said, I'd love to hear opinions, (and if anyone feels I am incorrect in my thoughts, they might find a decent deal on the card mentioned.)

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'll sprinkle my opinion within your statement.

The hobby becomes seriously dull if one always has to stop and think of investment potential prior to buying cards.

This is obviously a matter of opinion, one that I (and apparently many others) do not share.

If you have to wonder about investment potential first than you should not be buying the card (unless you are a dealer), you should be investing in better places - chances are you would be 'renting' that card until you need the cash back anyway which really sucks as it takes away from your PC.

Again, our opinions differ and because you've assumed that I share your perspective, you have made statements that are inaccurate. Personally, I enjoy the hobby in the fashion that I've chosen to enter it, and that is in the form of investing. As for there being "better places to invest," that again is your opinion. I know the cardboard market better than I do the stock market at the current time, and therefore feel it is a safer place to invest. The returns have made it hard to lookk elsewhere at times. As for a card leaving my "PC," I just don't feel the same attachment to cards that you might so your statement that it "really sucks" to have to deal a PC item again, is not an opinion we share.

But placing that common wisdom that you know all too well aside, the biggest question you should ask is whether or not you actually LIKE or ENJOY the card. If you like the look and enjoy the R&S card more than the alternatives, you should buy that card...but this makes sense because why the heck would you want to buy a card you don't like??? This is all common sense I guess, but it seems to address your question best.

I believe the answers to the first couple of statements make this clear. I enjoy buying cards that I feel are good investments. Therefore, my thoughts in the initial post directly pertain to whether I would consider buying the card.

Happy collecting.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'd say David Wright 02 Bowman Chrome Auto is the best investment right now, the Mets will make a serious run in 2009, his cards will only go up. (But don't know the long team by definition. 1 yr, 3 yrs, or 5 yrs?)

Pujols has achieved almost every possible reward in 7 years. His card has reached its potential IMO, it probably won't go up that much before another world series.

I like Wright as an investment (though I like Pujols as well) though this doesn't really relate to the idea the post is about. The Pujols card was simply an example, it could have been Teixeira, or any other number of players.

There was a good period there where Pujols 2001 Bowman Chrome autographs were pulling almost 3X what they are now. And that time is long gone. His raw 2001 Upper Deck rookies were selling at $120. But that time is also gone.

In this hobby "investment" is a relative term as there are constantly new variables coming into play.

For me, the only "long term investments" are vintage. Prospects have amazing short-term investment potential, but almost no long-term investment potential...even if the player "makes it big."

Rarely, if ever, will a player's cards again reach the heights when the singles peaked.

To me, players like Pujols, Wright, etc...have long since peaked and are done. Sure, you're probably not going to lose anything on them but you also won't be bringing in 5-10% annual increases either.

Pujols 2001 BC Auto gets $2000 or so. I am fairly certain the card never sold for much more than $3000 or so raw, so I have to question the numbers.

I also disagree on vintage as far as being a good "long term investment." There are vintage cards that may be, but I see little reason to assume the increases in prices we've seen over the last couple of decades for vintage, will translate to future gains. Do you see consistent 5%-10% on most vintage? I would find it hard to believe (though to be fair, it's not a market I follow closely.)

As for Pujols and Wright, time will tell, but I'm growing more confident with time passing, that they will see real increases.

 

[Adamsince1981]

Topnotch,

Usually I go for the absolute rarest and best card...or the most saught after by the "market"...and buy those.

In this case...the 2001 Bowman Chrome Pujols has been compared to the '52 Topps Mantle and the 1989 UD Griffey as a hobby game changer. I think this card is something that years from now, my son will use it to describe how special a player and their best card is, "that is the 2001 Chrome Pujols of my generation."

I've owned the Leaf Certified Red GU hat auto, the Donruss Siganture auto*, the SPX auto, and the 2001 Chirography...I thought that someday the Leaf Certified and the Donruss Signature would be worth more than the Chrome because people would come to realize they were tougher to find...I've been proven wrong.

It hurts to talk about owning those cards...I made good money on Pujols but I'd give it all back to have those cards again.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Topnotch,

Usually I go for the absolute rarest and best card...or the most saught after by the "market"...and buy those.

In this case...the 2001 Bowman Chrome Pujols has been compared to the '52 Topps Mantle and the 1989 UD Griffey as a hobby game changer. I think this card is something that years from now, my son will use it to describe how special a player and their best card is, "that is the 2001 Chrome Pujols of my generation."

I've owned the Leaf Certified Red GU hat auto, the Donruss Siganture auto*, the SPX auto, and the 2001 Chirography...I thought that someday the Leaf Certified and the Donruss Signature would be worth more than the Chrome because people would come to realize they were tougher to find...I've been proven wrong.

It hurts to talk about owning those cards...I made good money on Pujols but I'd give it all back to have those cards again.

I'm with you. My experiences lean toward looking for cards that are well known in the hobby, and won't get "lost." As far as Pujols, I've found his SPx to be the best for investing. I bought 2 a while back, for $400 and $440. Sold one of $650 and one for $1100. As they went down I paid $600 for one (seems to have been a poor decision) and $375 for an 8.5. If prices stay low and I get some funds, it's a card I will once again target. I know that others question my methods of investing in established guys who I think are undervalued, but it's worked for me.

 

[matfanofold]

Here is the way I look at it. Baseball cards will NEVER have the same potential to make money as it did in it's prime back in the late 70's to early 90's. Back then it had the special mix of circumstances and variables like shortage of supply and growing demand as well as growing collectors base. This made for words like 'potential' to be used in this hobby. Back then, just about anything you found in the closet or pulled out of a pack truely had potential to make money as the definition of baseball cards started off as kids toys and no one could imagine they would be worth anything in the 50's.

I can remember in the early 80's EVERYONE had a "if only.." story.

"If only my mom did not throw away my cards"

If only I still had my Mantles.."

It was the massive ammount of stories like these and the fast growing collectors base that introduced "potential" to our hobby as a reality. But it was and is a false reality. There is no potential for 99.999% of cards made today, yesterday and quite realisticly tomorrow. Heck, even prospectors will tell toy that a players card sells for the most when he is being hyped before actually making the MLB. He will then have to all but make the HOF to see the same value again, and probablly not even then. And it's only 1 out of ever 1000 that could actually have the potential to make something worth wile value wise.

Here is how I see this hobby. There is "potential" for thoes who sell box's and case's. They take the small but sure money. The prospectors who are smart enough to sell when a profit is on the table and the HOF vintage collectors have the most potential for pocketing a profit. Everyone else is doomed to loose if they look at it as a "potential" market for making money. The bottom line is, it's no longer a hobby full of potential and more akin to a lotto ticket.

Sure, these are only my opinions, but they are formulated by someone who has been involved in this hobby for 2 decades and these opinions are shared by everyone I talk with at shopd and shows. The only people hesitant to agree are thoes 'sheep prospectors' and thoes new to collecting, still blinded by that one good pull or bedazzled by hopes and dreams of the superfractor.

For every Pujols or Arod RC, there are tens of thousands of other cards that were full of fruitless potential, such is the state of out hobby. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. But I did my share of venturing, and I did my share of gaining. I only wish thoes who did not expierence this hobby in the early 80's could go back in time and see what raw, unaldultrated potential really looked like! I just do not believe "long term potential" belongs in modern card collecting conversation..


Just my 2 +...

 

[Topnotchsy]

Just my 2 +...

I'm not going to quote your whole post, but I will say that I agree with almost every word. I think that many fail to recognize the first part of what you wrote when they assume vintage will continue to increase in price.

As for prospects, the fact that 99% sell for less later on scares me investing long term (I worry something has to give sooner or later.) For me, I've done quite well with RC Auto's of established players. I believe there is room for long term investments in this area, provided smart decisions are made (not going to get into a whole long post about who to buy when now.)

 

[Topnotchsy]

Well, the card ended for $565. Way back before the last Pujols spike when Pujols' SPx was getting like $400, this was a $1000 card or so, so with the SPx's getting $300-$350 now, the drop in this one is significant and does back my point to a degree. Obviously this could be a fluke, as it's one isolated sample, with a zillion other factors that could have effected the ending price.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 0287422344

Anyone have any thoughts?

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Actually your over analysis makes you miss my point which in some ways is a big oversimplification; its funny how investing and collecting can sometimes go hand-in-hand, but let me be more clear. You are essentially asking: "What will people like?" Well, I am saying consider that you should buy cards you like because chances are other people will also enjoy the same card. To state the obvious, investment opportunities exist on cards people LIKE. We know that brand may be just one variable that factors into whether someone likes or doesn't like a particular card.

Simply writing off brands simply because they may not be mainstream is clearly going to make you miss plenty of investment opportunities, you obviously need to consider what other people will LIKE when you are about to sell or when you plan to sell. But to use a blanket generalization to guide you what to buy to resell is clearly not possible or else everyone here would be millionaires , putting yourself in the collector's shoes is the answer because the collectors do all the buying.

Perhaps you are wrestling with this important issue becuase you are not buying cards you like, but rather have detached yourself from cards so that you can more readily sell them. Its not possible to get a feel for something you're detached from, which probably precipitated your initial question. So, with regard to my first sentence, it all does seem like work and not fun to buy just to resell, but to each his own I guess.

I'll sprinkle my opinion within your statement.

The hobby becomes seriously dull if one always has to stop and think of investment potential prior to buying cards.

This is obviously a matter of opinion, one that I (and apparently many others) do not share.

If you have to wonder about investment potential first than you should not be buying the card (unless you are a dealer), you should be investing in better places - chances are you would be 'renting' that card until you need the cash back anyway which really sucks as it takes away from your PC.

Again, our opinions differ and because you've assumed that I share your perspective, you have made statements that are inaccurate. Personally, I enjoy the hobby in the fashion that I've chosen to enter it, and that is in the form of investing. As for there being "better places to invest," that again is your opinion. I know the cardboard market better than I do the stock market at the current time, and therefore feel it is a safer place to invest. The returns have made it hard to lookk elsewhere at times. As for a card leaving my "PC," I just don't feel the same attachment to cards that you might so your statement that it "really sucks" to have to deal a PC item again, is not an opinion we share.

But placing that common wisdom that you know all too well aside, the biggest question you should ask is whether or not you actually LIKE or ENJOY the card. If you like the look and enjoy the R&S card more than the alternatives, you should buy that card...but this makes sense because why the heck would you want to buy a card you don't like??? This is all common sense I guess, but it seems to address your question best.

I believe the answers to the first couple of statements make this clear. I enjoy buying cards that I feel are good investments. Therefore, my thoughts in the initial post directly pertain to whether I would consider buying the card.

Happy collecting.

 

[TraderJake]

There are two competing factors at play here. On the one hand the rarer cards will become rarer as they get stashed away but at the same time each one that gets stashed away represents a Pujols collector that doesn't need that card any more. Essentially supply goes down with demand. Any new Pujols collectors are probably still going to want to start with a Bowman Chrome and as had been said before because he has already achieved so much he won't be attracting too many new fans to his already mammoth fan base. For investment purposes I still think guy has to do something better than he has done for there to be a huge spike (out of line with normal market conditions) in the prices of his cards. I am also a big fan of cards with few "next best alternatives". Ill go with my guy Markakis as an example as he really only has one relevant RC, the 2003 BCDP Auto so if he surges as a player the impact will be felt on that card.

 

[HPC]

My buddy had the Leaf R&S auto about a year ago and sold it for 814.00, so I can verify it does exist

As to your question, yes and no.

Good because a true collector will know it exists, and will be willing to pay for it when he sees it

Bad because it might be a while before both of those happen

 

[Topnotchsy]

Actually your over analysis makes you miss my point which in some ways is a big oversimplification; its funny how investing and collecting can sometimes go hand-in-hand, but let me be more clear. You are essentially asking: "What will people like?" Well, I am saying consider that you should buy cards you like because chances are other people will also enjoy the same card. To state the obvious, investment opportunities exist on cards people LIKE. We know that brand may be just one variable that factors into whether someone likes or doesn't like a particular card.

Simply writing off brands simply because they may not be mainstream is clearly going to make you miss plenty of investment opportunities, you obviously need to consider what other people will LIKE when you are about to sell or when you plan to sell. But to use a blanket generalization to guide you what to buy to resell is clearly not possible or else everyone here would be millionaires , putting yourself in the collector's shoes is the answer because the collectors do all the buying.

Perhaps you are wrestling with this important issue becuase you are not buying cards you like, but rather have detached yourself from cards so that you can more readily sell them. Its not possible to get a feel for something you're detached from, which probably precipitated your initial question. So, with regard to my first sentence, it all does seem like work and not fun to buy just to resell, but to each his own I guess.

I'll start off by saying that for your first statement, I agree 100%. Investing and collecting do go hand in hand, and remember that can bring to the forefront many great investments. One recent example that I personally took advantage of was the APOH bat set which I started collecting, partially because I realized how many people were collecting the set. I can't base investments on my own personal likes, because I know that what I would have in a PC does not necessarily match what others might (haven't seen too many Moe Berg items getting any press.)

I would never write off an area completely, but there are guidelines that I've come up with and found useful. Very often I find that picking the right card is as important as picking the right player (a recent example was Jay Bruce's RC Auto's where in a post on the old BMB I and others identified that the TCU which was cheaper at the time, had more long term potential than the Sterling based on looks.)

As for my place in the hobby, at this point in my life I can not justify buying baseball cards unless they are an investment.

 

[Topnotchsy]

There are two competing factors at play here. On the one hand the rarer cards will become rarer as they get stashed away but at the same time each one that gets stashed away represents a Pujols collector that doesn't need that card any more. Essentially supply goes down with demand. Any new Pujols collectors are probably still going to want to start with a Bowman Chrome and as had been said before because he has already achieved so much he won't be attracting too many new fans to his already mammoth fan base. For investment purposes I still think guy has to do something better than he has done for there to be a huge spike (out of line with normal market conditions) in the prices of his cards. I am also a big fan of cards with few "next best alternatives". Ill go with my guy Markakis as an example as he really only has one relevant RC, the 2003 BCDP Auto so if he surges as a player the impact will be felt on that card.

I disagree on the ingredients needed for there to be a huge spike. One example I've followed is Arod. Despite the fact that for years he's been considered the best shortstop in baseball, and by many the best player in baseball (or close to it) his cards have seen a number of serious spikes over the last few years. A really hot start, a big homerun derby, a 4 homer game, etc. etc. can all spark an increase in prices, all it takes is some forward momentum convincing people that he's worth investing in again, and worth holding on to. All I look for is a scenario where prices drop to a point where they are simply "too low" to really make sense.

I agree on a player like Markakis, and am sitting on half a dozen of his BC Auto's, though I do wonder if he has the ingredients for true hobby stardom. (With that said, at current prices, with his having as you say "few next best alternatives" I'm a fan.)

Regarding your first point (which is really the focus of the thread) you are definitely right that most anyone who has one does not need another, and I just think that most people in the hobby have short memories.

 

[Topnotchsy]

My buddy had the Leaf R&S auto about a year ago and sold it for 814.00, so I can verify it does exist

As to your question, yes and no.

Good because a true collector will know it exists, and will be willing to pay for it when he sees it

Bad because it might be a while before both of those happen

I'm honestly unsure what you are saying here. If you could expound I'd appreciate it.

As for the card existing; I know it exists. I was just wondering if cards like these in general offer better investment potential than a more mainstream card.

 

[HPC]

My buddy had the Leaf R&S auto about a year ago and sold it for 814.00, so I can verify it does exist

As to your question, yes and no.

Good because a true collector will know it exists, and will be willing to pay for it when he sees it

Bad because it might be a while before both of those happen

I'm honestly unsure what you are saying here. If you could expound I'd appreciate it.

As for the card existing; I know it exists. I was just wondering if cards like these in general offer better investment potential than a more mainstream card.

I said gave 2 small reasons why it is a good investment, and why it isnt.

In my opinion, no, it is not a good "investment" in flipping terms, but yes, a safe investment in "collecting" terms.

It's like gold. You couldve had gold for 215 an ounce 8 years ago, now, 8 years later, its at close to 1000 an ounce (roughly). Now, if 8 years ago you purchased gold at 215, and tried to resell it 3 months later, you probably lost money (because how many dealers will pay you what you bought it at? thats not good business or how retail works), or gained a very small amount. Why, because gold is rare (thats why its expensive and not everybody can have it), and usually increases at a stable price slowly. It rarely fluctuates to the prices that other commodities such as oil does. Same with the Pujols R&S, it's rare, and its immediate profit range is not very good.

Long term however, gold is a great investment because 1) people want it 2) barring something drastic happening, it retains, and more often than not gains value 3) limited quantity of it available....etc, etc, etc

I am speaking in terms of stability over periods of time. Pujols is a 40hr/120rbi guy constantly, however, if he were to hit 80 hr in a season, well, obviously his prices would skyrocket, and if there was somehow a shortage or sudden increase in the wanting of gold, of course, prices would also increase dramatically

So I guess the real question is what do you consider a "good investment?" One that money can be made quickly on, or, a card that will retain and gain value over the years?