Name 3 players that most don't think will make HOF...

[markakis8]

All-Star game appearances:

Renteria: 5
Rollins: 3 (and only once since his first two full seasons in the league and including one year he was an all-star despite hitting .245/11/60 on the year. Interestingly, in every season he made the all-star game he was a below average hitter.)
Furcal: 2
Guillen: 3

All-Star appearances can hold very little credit when talking about a HOF career. You can be the 3rd or 4th best player at your position and still put together a HOF career. Ask Robin Yount. Guess how many All-Star appearances he made? 3. Or you can make the team quite frequently and it mean nothing at all. Ask Bill Freehan.

Highest OPS+ (best peak season)

Renteria: 130
Rollins: 119
Furcal: 125 (was injured for 60 games though)
Guillen: 142

We are not measuring one year of offensive prowess. We are gauging an entire body of work over a career. Jimmy Rollins has been an above average hitter as a SS. Not only is Rollins a better hitter than those three, he is by far the best defender (it's not even close!) and by far the best base runner.

Career Batting Average

Renteria: .286
Rollins: .272
Furcal: .282
Guillen: .285

Again, we are talking about a complete body of work. Not just offense.

Career Homeruns

Renteria: 140
Rollins: 170
Furcal: 108
Guillen: 124

Home runs are the least talked about stat when it comes to a SS, unless you have one like Alex Rodriguez that hits 40+ a year. But if you really want to go that route, Rollins has the most of those 4 players. Renteria and Guillen are retired and I don't see Furcal hitting more than 125 in his career. Rollins still has at least 5 more years in his tank, if not more. Highly possible he will end up with close to 250 career HR. Then this stat is not really comparable, is it?

Looking across a number of stats I think that these 3 are great comparables for Rollins. (You would never consider comparing him to Reyes, Hanley, Tulowitzki, Jeter or star shortstops would you? I mean, the numbers are very clear that outside of a single season Rollins has been a mediocre hitter and sports a lifetime on base percentage of .329.)

Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, and Troy Tulowitzki have played less than 10 seasons each. They shouldn't even been in this discussion. They are premier players today and that's it.

I'm open to hearing another position, but for the most part I see a very average hitter who had one year where he put up very solid numbers, but a player who because of his number of at bats per season (which stems from hitting atop a great line-up and not walking much) allows him to accumulate a lot of hits and runs without being all that valuable with the bat.

And as for Rollins having "a few more solid seasons..." I'll reference back to his slash lines the last 4 years:

2008: .277/11/59
2009: .250/21/77
2010: .243/8/41 (missed time due to injury.)
2011: .268/16/63

I'm not expecting Rollins to hit .300 and drop 30 HR again. But he had nagging injuries the past 3 years and it's not out of the question for him to put up .270 15 60 season with 30 SBs and anywhere from 80-100 runs. Add to that gold glove-caliber defense, then yes, I would call those SOLID seasons for a SS.

Those are some really ugly looking numbers. If it was a year I'd say it was a down season. 2 years and maybe you could still explain it away. 4 years and I have a hard time seeing him as anything else. I would not be shocked if he puts up a nice season sometime in the next few years, but IMO he has about as close to zero chance as anyone of ever being considered for the Hall.

I'll leave you with these #'s:

Average XBH per year (only counted FULL seasons):

Guillen: 44 per season in 11 years
Furcal: 45 per season in 11 years
Renteria: ~41 per season in 14 years (didn't count his last 2 years, if I did, it would be lower)
Rollins: 66 per season in 11 years (I counted his injury year, if I didn't, the # would go up)

SB %

Guillen: 74 for 128 - 57.8%
Furcal: 302 for 392 - 77% - he's not stealing too many more bases in his career
Renteria: 294 for 402 - 73.1%
Rollins: 373 for 451 - 82.7% - very good chance he averages 20+ SB per year the rest of the way. Could be close to 500 SB when he retires. He'll definitely have 400.

dWAR as SS:

Guillen: -4.0 in 7 years as SS
Furcal: 4.6 in 11 years as SS
Renteria: -1.4 in 16 years as SS
Rollins: 5.2 in 11 years as SS

Career fielding %:

Guillen: .966 - And this # is inflated with him playing 1B and OF. So it's lower as a SS.
Furcal: .965
Renteria: .970
Rollins: .984

 

[markakis8]

After looking it over, another comparable career to Rollins would be Alan Trammell. I do believe Trammell will be in the HOF one day - might have to be veteran's committee. Entirely possible that's the route that Rollins goes as well.

 

[exp619]

Don't get me wrong, Rollins is a very good player who had one excellent season, but he's miles from a HOF'er IMO.

Name 3 players that most don't think will make HOF

Point of the topic was to list 3 players in your opinion who most people think are "miles" away.