question about prospecting???

[asw37]

Why are 1st bowman chrome cards of more recent prospects more expensive than those of past prospects who are now established stars. For instance why is the 1st bowman auto card of a star like jon lester less valuable than a chrome auto of a star prospect like Jameson Taillon? Does it have to do with certain cards or do the bottoms fall out of star players, even if they become stars? I am new to collecting modern cards and auto, so this may be a newb question, but it is something I am having difficulty understanding. For instance, do bowman autos of guys like madison bumgarner, who spent time in the majors, but have not ascended into stardom have growth potential, or will they always be fairly cheap cards,even if he becomes a bonafide ace. Thanks for any info and all opinions are truly appreciated.

 

[Krom]

Why are 1st bowman chrome cards of more recent prospects more expensive than those of past prospects who are now established stars. For instance why is the 1st bowman auto card of a star like jon lester less valuable than a chrome auto of a star prospect like Jameson Taillon? Does it have to do with certain cards or do the bottoms fall out of star players, even if they become stars? I am new to collecting modern cards and auto, so this may be a newb question, but it is something I am having difficulty understanding. For instance, do bowman autos of guys like madison bumgarner, who spent time in the majors, but have not ascended into stardom have growth potential, or will they always be fairly cheap cards,even if he becomes a bonafide ace. Thanks for any info and all opinions are truly appreciated.

There are some answers others can help you with but i can tell you Lester's BC autos are way too cheap for how great he is. Stock up if you can. I sorta relate it to when Pujols had a great 1st year his prices didn't reflect it. The next year he kept kicking arse. I was able to pick up a psa 10 spx rc auto for 330 that later that year i sold for around 900. It takes people time to realize that not everyone is a flash in the pan. Hope that helps a bit.

 

[All The Hype]

People think prospect cards have room for future growth, so they are more willing to buy them. This seems backwards, but because they are far more volatile than identical cards of Major Leaguers, there is much more potential to make money on the prospect cards. This is what draws people into the prospect card market, which explains why Taillon, who hasn't played Pro ball yet, can outsell a guy like Lester, who has been a Cy Young candidate in the Majors the last couple seasons.

 

[shayscards79]

There comes a certain point when auto of star players level out. Typically because there is a specific type of person that is looking to buy a Pujols, Braun or Mauer auto five years after they explode on the scene. Their stuff may slowly rise over time, but not exponentially.

But take guys like Braun and Mauer when they were prospects and see how many people were trying to buy them up for investment reasons. A lot of prospectors driving up the value until they peak, based on speculation, then a smaller number of niche collectors taking over once everyone knows their potential. Maybe that isn't a great way to explain it and I probably could have said it better. It's like the stock market really.

 

[All The Hype]

There comes a certain point when auto of star players level out. Typically because there is a specific type of person that is looking to buy a Pujols, Braun or Mauer auto five years after they explode on the scene. Their stuff may slowly rise over time, but not exponentially.

But take guys like Braun and Mauer when they were prospects and see how many people were trying to buy them up for investment reasons. A lot of prospectors driving up the value until they peak, based on speculation, then a smaller number of niche collectors taking over once everyone knows their potential. Maybe that isn't a great way to explain it and I probably could have said it better. It's like the stock market really.

The bolded is an analogy I've used many times in the past and I think it's highly applicable here.

You can buy a share of an established company's stock in hopes of it gaining value over time, but you would do this knowing that while it's a fairly safe investment, it's unlikely that your investment will double...at least not over a short period of time. Contrarily, you could put your money into an unknown and new company, knowing that it's a riskier investment, but if it takes off, you will likely make a large profit. Cards are essentially the same way. The lesser known guys are most volatile until they become established (either good or bad), so there is more potential for growth. Potential for growth draws people in.

 

[asw37]

wow, all of these responses are very helpfull I really appreciate them. The stock market analogy makes alot of sense, seems under this philosophy, it would be wise to sell, for example, a stanton 08 chrome auto if he were to explode in april to start the season, but once hes established himself as a 40 hr/yr threat, his card will pretty much level out.

 

[brouthercard]

hype sells better than performance when a player is young.

 

[All The Hype]

wow, all of these responses are very helpfull I really appreciate them. The stock market analogy makes alot of sense, seems under this philosophy, it would be wise to sell, for example, a stanton 08 chrome auto if he were to explode in april to start the season, but once hes established himself as a 40 hr/yr threat, his card will pretty much level out.

Basically, yes.

There are rare cases (Pujols, maybe Lincecum) where the player continues to exceed expectations or plays at such a high level each year that prices continue to climb over time. This is a pattern seen only by elite players. Usually players' cards will peak near the beginning of their careers. This often happens when they make their MLB debut or shortly thereafter. Extenuating circumstances could cause price to climb or spike at various times throughout their career (traded, a notable single-game performance, a hot streak, etc.), but the general pattern shows that the beginning of the career when the player's true ability has not been completely determined is the time when their cards see the largest upward movement.

People want to buy their cards because they think the player could be the next big thing (especially if they get off to a hot start in the Majors). As people realize that said player is not going to be the next Albert Pujols, the card values come back to earth and level off.

 

[011873]

Also depends on where a player is playing. If he is "lost" on a bad team or a team who have very little fanbase, even if he is a star, his cards might be low.

But once that player goes to a big market team (Yanks, Sox, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Cards), his cards will go up. Look at Adrian Gonzalez. Look at Rafael Soriano, a closer who no one....ONE.... was buying. But once word got out he signed with the Yanks, up went the sales.

I know Im legally not allowed to say the next sentance due to FCB's rules, but I will.
If Jesus Montero gets traded to the Mariners for King Felix, Montero's cards will drop while Felix's will skyrocket. Correct me if Im wrong but I dont think Felix's cards went up much after he won the CY, but they will if he gets traded to the Yanks.