Topps Million Card Giveaway - "This Card Unavailable" Info

[Bill Menard]

See if anyone can follow this!

As many know there are cards in the Topps Database that are showing up as "this card unavailable". There are not many of them for each year. I think 56 has the greatest quantity. Topps revised the way the cards are tracked such that they now only show one copy of each card that has been pulled in the database. This now sheds some light on WHO the "this card unavailable" can be.

I have 8 of the 1956s and 2 of the 52s. I have noticed the way they are space out in my account (amongst the other 52 and 56s I have) and one of the cards I have from 56 says I have two copies of it, which gives me an indication that Topps KNOWS who the cards are, even though they come up as unknown. In the search engine for cards redeemed, they sort the cards alpahbetically, however, in your account, they sort them by card # (for each year).

I have these 1956s in my account:

3,7,x,19,x,x,x,37,38,x,48,71,x,89 (and several other upper #s that are important to this discussion). The x represents where in the set the "this card unavailable" #s fall.

As I looked through the search engine for the 1956 year, I took down all the #'s pulled so far and sorted them in an excel file. Once I did this, I could see that between #'s 7 and 19, only one card has not been redeemed - #10 Warren Spahn.

Between 19 and 37, there are only 5 cards that have not been redeemed - 20 Kaline, 25 Kluszewski, 30 Jackie Robinson, 31 Hank Aaron, and 33 Roberto Clemente.

Between 48 and 71, only 2 cards have not been redeemed Keegan and Craig (no idea who they are).

Now this was all looking great and I was like HOLY COW! Could I really have Spahn and 3/5 of those jackpot names I listed up there? Well, my optimism dropped slightly when I saw that my account says I have 2 copies of a "this card unavailable" between #s 71 and 89. The only card not redeemed in that # range is 79 - Sandy Koufax. I just can't believe I'd have two copies of that card (but maybe?!?).

What do you guys think of this logic. For further evaluation, I did this with the 1952's. I have two of those showing up between #4 Lenhardt and #80 Weimeier (both of which I have). Of all the #'s between 4 and 80, only these have not been redeemed:
11 Rizzuto
20 Loes
22 D.DiMaggio
26 Irvin
29 Kluszewski
33 Spahn
36 Hodges
37 Snider
48 Page
49 Sain
59 Roberts
65 Slaughter
66 Roe
67 Reynolds

Now I'd be very happy with just about any of those! Again, do you guys think this could be accurate? Could I be onto something? I really hope so!

Given the big names, I really think these Unavailable cards have to be a subset of the prize cards (obviously not all of the 2000 prize cards are showing up as unavailable as I can see a 56 Mantle in the database already).

Curious what you all think.

 

[vandybill]

Your logic seems sound and if so I am jealous!

 

[schmidtfan20]

cmon Bill, you are waaaay too optimistic, topps can give you any card they want, why would they give you a good
card? There is a reason why none of the good cards on those list have been taken yet...as long as their out
there people will still buy series 1 topps and I can assure you that is topps ONLY goal with this promotion.

Kevin

 

[Bill Menard]

cmon Bill, you are waaaay too optimistic, topps can give you any card they want, why would they give you a good
card? There is a reason why none of the good cards on those list have been taken yet...as long as their out
there people will still buy series 1 topps and I can assure you that is topps ONLY goal with this promotion.

Kevin

Kevin,
I'll agree - I'm being optimistic, but you are ALWAYS waaay to pessimistic. Not everyone is out to cheat you. Cheer up, dude. Life is actually a pretty good thing! LOL - No really, I wanted honest opinions from people on my thinking, so I appreciate your input.

I'm just sayin, based on the way they are organized, this is what the cards would have to be. I just don't know how many people cashed in their cards at the same time I did (during the 1/2 hour blitz when they were giving out all the early 50's stuff) and redeemed a quantity like I did at that time (100 cards). So I don't know if there are others who could verify the way the cards are arranged in their accounts and see if this all makes sense with what they see. If anyone wants to try and it and wants to see a list of the cards in numerical order that have been pulled so far for 1952 and 1956, I'd be happy to share the excel file. Just ask.

Also, I don't think Topps has to worry to hard about selling any of their products. They seem to do just fine on the retail end year after year. And I don't think they really care who pulls what from the redemption promotion they have going on. I'm sure they have some of the bigger cards timed to be released at certain points, but they are also letting some of them go early. There are many big cards that have been released already, including the Robinson, Matthews, Campanella and many Hi#'s from 1952, the 56 Mantle and other Mantles too have been pulled. So they are not holding back on everything. BUT - even if they did... by keeping them as "this card unavailable" they are doing what you think - keeping the prize cards a mystery and off the board to keep people buying.

 

[schmidtfan20]

cmon Bill, you are waaaay too optimistic, topps can give you any card they want, why would they give you a good
card? There is a reason why none of the good cards on those list have been taken yet...as long as their out
there people will still buy series 1 topps and I can assure you that is topps ONLY goal with this promotion.

Kevin

Kevin,
I'll agree - I'm being optimistic, but you are ALWAYS waaay to pessimistic. Not everyone is out to cheat you. Cheer up, dude. Life is actually a pretty good thing! LOL - No really, I wanted honest opinions from people on my thinking, so I appreciate your input.

I'm just sayin, based on the way they are organized, this is what the cards would have to be. I just don't know how many people cashed in their cards at the same time I did (during the 1/2 hour blitz when they were giving out all the early 50's stuff) and redeemed a quantity like I did at that time (100 cards). So I don't know if there are others who could verify the way the cards are arranged in their accounts and see if this all makes sense with what they see. If anyone wants to try and it and wants to see a list of the cards in numerical order that have been pulled so far for 1952 and 1956, I'd be happy to share the excel file. Just ask.

Also, I don't think Topps has to worry to hard about selling any of their products. They seem to do just fine on the retail end year after year. And I don't think they really care who pulls what from the redemption promotion they have going on. I'm sure they have some of the bigger cards timed to be released at certain points, but they are also letting some of them go early. There are many big cards that have been released already, including the Robinson, Matthews, Campanella and many Hi#'s from 1952, the 56 Mantle and other Mantles too have been pulled. So they are not holding back on everything. BUT - even if they did... by keeping them as "this card unavailable" they are doing what you think - keeping the prize cards a mystery and off the board to keep people buying.

Bill

Most of those high end cards went in the first 5 hours, since then NADA. They know what they are doing. People are
opening packs of worthless topps series one because they actually think they have a shot at a great card. For all we know their employees could of redeemed the Campy, Jackie and Mathews. What has been the best hit on these boards?

The fact is topps makes at least 3 bucks on every card that is redeemed, that is the least possible price you could
buy a pack for and pull a redemption card....then they are charging 75 cents+ to ship the card. Now how many cards
in this promotion are worth less thans 3.75......THOUSANDS! Topps is making money by the hour, why would they
screw that up giving out the big name cards? Sure a few of them are leaked out to keep us hopful but Ill ask again
what are the top 10 cards that have been pulled by the hundreds of redemption redeemed by board members? I'm
guess they aren't that great.

Kevin

 

[Bill Menard]

Kevin,

I don't want to get too far off the topic and hope others will respond to the original question, but based on your post history and having seen many of your replies/topics, I think you're a little jaded when it comes to cards and the companies and tend to have theories that are pretty far out there.

Seriously, I think Topps has some really good intentions with the promotion and are simply trying to find another way to get more people involved in collecting and returning to the hobby.

Best,
Bill

 

[schmidtfan20]

Bill

You know me, I am a topps guy, my entire personal collection is all topps, I think they make the best baseball
cards period. I buy ginter every year and buy heritage every year. With that comes the knowledge of how they
think. They only care about making money, what you have seen about bringing more people into the hobby just
isn't accurate, on the outside they may say that because they had to to keep their license, but they are happy
with the same group of collectors willing to shell out 250 dollars a pack for a gu card. They are in no need to
attract kids to buy 99 cent packs of cards. That just doesn't make money.

If you were in the business of making money and I told you I wanted a random card from your collection, both
high end and low end, would you take the chance of closing your eyes and pulling a random card? Especially when
I had NO way of knowing if it was random or not? If topps could care less about getting you the card you had
been waiting months on as a redemption, why would they give you the good cards on this? I'm not trying to make
trouble here, but doesn't it seem a bit odd that in your research of all the "random" cards that haven't been
given out yet that most of them are HOF'ers?

I hope you prove me wrong Bill!

Kevin

 

[serving4theking]

Has Topps said for sure that every card from their base sets is included?

 

[schmidtfan20]

Has Topps said for sure that every card from their base sets is included?

yes

 

[ChasHawk]

Bill,

Great research and info as always!


Kevin,

Topps Series 1 has been sold out from Topps point of view since about November of last year,
and they don't make anywhere close to $3 per pack of cards sold.

 

[schmidtfan20]

Bill,

Great research and info as always!


Kevin,

Topps Series 1 has been sold out from Topps point of view since about November of last year,
and they don't make anywhere close to $3 per pack of cards sold.

topps series one at retail outlets isn't sold out until it is paid for at the register. that must represnt what a hundred
thousand packs at least? Topps is still very much in sell mode with this.

(and don't forget that retail blasters have NO autos or GU in them)

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

All those leftovers get repackaged and resold, just like all the other retail stuff. Also blasters do have autos and GU as do the loose packs.

topps series one at retail outlets isn't sold out until it is paid for at the register. that must represnt what a hundred
thousand packs at least? Topps is still very much in sell mode with this.

(and don't forget that retail blasters have NO autos or GU in them)

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Bill,

Great research and info as always!


Kevin,

Topps Series 1 has been sold out from Topps point of view since about November of last year,
and they don't make anywhere close to $3 per pack of cards sold.

topps series one at retail outlets isn't sold out until it is paid for at the register. that must represnt what a hundred
thousand packs at least? Topps is still very much in sell mode with this.

(and don't forget that retail blasters have NO autos or GU in them)

Are you suggesting that Topps still owns the retail boxes that are sitting on the shelves at Walmart and Target? That's what it sounds like you are saying, but I don't want to assume. From my perspective, the retail boxes on the shelves there are owned by those retail outlets, and once again, Topps doesn't have anything further invested in helping them move other than the hopes that they continue to buy those blaster boxes in the future.

 

[vwnut13]

Are you suggesting that Topps still owns the retail boxes that are sitting on the shelves at Walmart and Target? That's what it sounds like you are saying, but I don't want to assume. From my perspective, the retail boxes on the shelves there are owned by those retail outlets, and once again, Topps doesn't have anything further invested in helping them move other than the hopes that they continue to buy those blaster boxes in the future.

THey are owned by distributors as far as I know, and the stores get there money when the product is sold.

 

[Bill Menard]

The "This Card Unavailable" glitch has been fixed. All my cards were commons as far as I can tell. My theory was wrong

Did get some 52 Sox and Dodgers, so that's ok!

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Are you suggesting that Topps still owns the retail boxes that are sitting on the shelves at Walmart and Target? That's what it sounds like you are saying, but I don't want to assume. From my perspective, the retail boxes on the shelves there are owned by those retail outlets, and once again, Topps doesn't have anything further invested in helping them move other than the hopes that they continue to buy those blaster boxes in the future.

THey are owned by distributors as far as I know, and the stores get there money when the product is sold.

Okay, so even if its a distributor, not the store, it still isn't Topps, so that point is moot.

 

[rymflaherty]

Are you suggesting that Topps still owns the retail boxes that are sitting on the shelves at Walmart and Target? That's what it sounds like you are saying, but I don't want to assume. From my perspective, the retail boxes on the shelves there are owned by those retail outlets, and once again, Topps doesn't have anything further invested in helping them move other than the hopes that they continue to buy those blaster boxes in the future.

THey are owned by distributors as far as I know, and the stores get there money when the product is sold.

Not saying this is true for places like Wal-Mart and Target, but if anyone was curious, I do know for a fact this was the case when I was working at Sports Authority. All of the sports cards came from "Legends" - I believe it was a distributor from NY. It was almost like a separate entity from the store - they'd send their products and their own representative would come to the store and take care of the section. I also know the store made little or no money on any of those sales, so at least at Sports Authority it was indeed a distributor that was paying them essentially for the shelf space. From what I could see, it also seemed more than likely anything unsold was being repackaged into those $10 multi-pack deals.

 

[ChasHawk]

Are you suggesting that Topps still owns the retail boxes that are sitting on the shelves at Walmart and Target? That's what it sounds like you are saying, but I don't want to assume. From my perspective, the retail boxes on the shelves there are owned by those retail outlets, and once again, Topps doesn't have anything further invested in helping them move other than the hopes that they continue to buy those blaster boxes in the future.

THey are owned by distributors as far as I know, and the stores get there money when the product is sold.

This is exactly the case, which brings me back to what I said this morning. Topps' money is already made as far as Series 1 is concerned.

 

[Liberate Baltimore]

Is this promotion going to be in the Series 2 and Update products? Perhaps they are holding off the 1952 Mantle until then?

 

[rsmath]

Is this promotion going to be in the Series 2 and Update products? Perhaps they are holding off the 1952 Mantle until then?

yep, goes through the rest of the series'.

I'm guessing only one decent condition 1952 Mantle will be had (as the grand prize). I can't imagine Topps seeding more than one Mantle that expensive into rotation for the promotion unless the 52 Mantles are going to be in less than EX shape.