What is your updated TAKE on Jesus Montero?

[Pinbreaker]

I've watched Montero this year.. He struggled earlier and is now gettig used to Safeco.. It's a hitters dungeon..

I have seen so many players that were studs in other ballparks come here and totally suck..

They leave here and go to other places, and low and behold they find their swing again..

Safeco is a pitchers park and they have been talking about moving the fences in this next year, so I would think his numbers would go up..

 

[James52411]

I dont think anything in his numbers prove he's a 'great hitter'. My opinion was from watching him in person and on video for over 400 at bats over a couple years from 2008-2010.

I think he has an amazing, advanced approach. Lots of guys say they look opposite field and react to inside pitches. Heck Mike Stanton is ONLY allowed to hit opposite field EVERY pitch during BP. Then during the game what does he do? He tries to pull every dang pitch he sees.

Montero not only looks opposite field, he HITS there. He DRIVES it opposite field, and every once in a while he'll drive it over the fence that way. When he actually attacks an inside pitch, (rarely) he kills it. Situationally, with a man on 3rd and 2 outs, you can see him strike singles up the middle to score the man, rather than taking a huge hack and coming up empty with a warning track power out. You see Miggy do that, you see veterans do that, you dont see 22 year olds doing that.

Some guys you can just tell, are guessing. They dont have a plan, they're just hacking. When Francoeur came up, you could see it. He was just swinging out of his shoes. To be honest, Harper looks like that some times. Maybe his bat speed will allow him to continue to kill it, but folks have already posted stats that Harper cannot hit a good slider. Maybe that catches up to him, maybe it doesn't. I've also seen him do some great situational hitting, so i'm guessing he too will figure it all out.

I'm kind of rambling now, but my point is, i can SEE that he knows what he's doing at the plate. Does it happen every night? No, but Josh Hamilton just hit .189 in June, so yeah, hitting is hard. Montero is a 'hitter'. I can see it.

I haven't watched him as much as you, but from what I've seen:

Best Case Scenario - Edgar Martinez
Midrange Scenario - Todd Zeile
Nightmare Scenario - Geovany Soto

I think the Zeile scenario is the likeliest. Good but not great hitter who has a nice 15 year career, transitions away from catcher, and finishes up with about a .280 career average and close to 300 HRs.

PS: Kudos on your debate skills. You made a guy with a .707 OPS and 21% rate against base runners sound like he's proven this year that he is the second coming of Johnny Bench.

 

[phillyfan0417]

I haven't watched him as much as you, but from what I've seen:

Best Case Scenario - Edgar Martinez
Midrange Scenario - Todd Zeile
Nightmare Scenario - Geovany Soto

I think the Zeile scenario is the likeliest. Good but not great hitter who has a nice 15 year career, transitions away from catcher, and finishes up with about a .280 career average and close to 300 HRs.

PS: Kudos on your debate skills. You made a guy with a .707 OPS and 21% rate against base runners sound like he's proven this year that he is the second coming of Johnny Bench.

And kudos to you for using a small sample size, an admission you havent seen him play much to decide on thee scenario's and also which one is most likely...


Also, a .280 hitter would actually make him a better hitter than bench (.267)

 

[Mudcatsfan]

Hahaha, Thanks!

If he can pull a Napoli / Piazza / Posada etc and somehow stick at catcher when nobody thought he could, then he has a All Star Career waiting for him.

If he can't then he's going to have to move to a corner somehow and MASH. If he stays at DH, he will never be respected. So few DH's are.

I haven't watched him as much as you, but from what I've seen:

Best Case Scenario - Edgar Martinez
Midrange Scenario - Todd Zeile
Nightmare Scenario - Geovany Soto

I think the Zeile scenario is the likeliest. Good but not great hitter who has a nice 15 year career, transitions away from catcher, and finishes up with about a .280 career average and close to 300 HRs.

PS: Kudos on your debate skills. You made a guy with a .707 OPS and 21% rate against base runners sound like he's proven this year that he is the second coming of Johnny Bench.

 

[bballcardkid]

bballkid and MudCatsFan....where you guys at?

Sorry fellas, I had to do this. Last year we couldn't go a day without a 'Montero is the best hitter ever' thread. And those two were definitely leading the charge.

I will give Montero this, he plays in Seattle which isn't exactly a hitter's paradise. He would have put up much better numbers if he got to hit at Yankee Stadium 81 times a year. His opposite field power is tremendous for a player his age and that short porch would have done wonders for him.

hey fucctard, I've already showed you my Montero spreadsheets. Never ever ever ever ever did I say he was the "best hitter ever."

When he was called up to the Yankees and you were trashing me non stop like a stalking 15 year old, you went into hiding for like 6 months after Montero's cards shot up 75%-100% overnight after his two homer game...so um, XXXX off and get off my nuts. Did you make over $1K on Montero? If not, your a moron for not listening to my advice. Thanks cya bye!

 

[ballerskrip]

hey fucctard, I've already showed you my Montero spreadsheets. Never ever ever ever ever did I say he was the "best hitter ever."

When he was called up to the Yankees and you were trashing me non stop like a stalking 15 year old, you went into hiding for like 6 months after Montero's cards shot up 75%-100% overnight after his two homer game...so um, XXXX off and get off my nuts. Did you make over $1K on Montero? If not, your a moron for not listening to my advice. Thanks cya bye!

Damn bro, chill out. Just a friendly discussion.

Mud, your DH point is well said, and I do agree with it. BUT, my point is that the baseball community and card buyers won't say, "well he hit .250 this year, but he played 40 games at DH". They will view the numbers and season as a whole. I do believe he will pick it up the rest of the way and wouldn't be surprised if he ended up around .270, maybe .275.

skrip

 

[phillyfan0417]

Damn bro, chill out. Just a friendly discussion.

Mud, your DH point is well said, and I do agree with it. BUT, my point is that the baseball community and card buyers won't say, "well he hit .250 this year, but he played 40 games at DH". They will view the numbers and season as a whole. I do believe he will pick it up the rest of the way and wouldn't be surprised if he ended up around .270, maybe .275.

skrip

Oh matt, you know this is a little more than a "friendly discussion" since you've not been a montero fan from the start. You were way more subtle but this was a little "he's a bust" thread.

 

[bballcardkid]

Damn bro, chill out. Just a friendly discussion.

Mud, your DH point is well said, and I do agree with it. BUT, my point is that the baseball community and card buyers won't say, "well he hit .250 this year, but he played 40 games at DH". They will view the numbers and season as a whole. I do believe he will pick it up the rest of the way and wouldn't be surprised if he ended up around .270, maybe .275.

skrip

No, no chilling out. I've been through it with this creep for too long. After Montero's huge burst onto the scene, Mr. Roundtree shut his XXXXing mouth after taking great pleasure in trying to rip me publicly, especially when Montero started whatever year off batting like .230 into June. $500 base Chrome BGS 10 sales, $330 PSA 10 Xfractor sales, etc pretty much shut him up. Why the hell he would think I would be holding onto a significant amount of Montero cards right now is beyond me. And yes, at the time he was one of the 3 best prospects in baseball, and I still think he will be a star in the majors, so I don't know where this "I told you so" bull XXXX is coming from.

 

[ballerskrip]

Oh matt, you know this is a little more than a "friendly discussion" since you've not been a montero fan from the start. You were way more subtle but this was a little "he's a bust" thread.

Truth in some of that, I was never a fan(only at release when i bought 20 or so autos for peanuts), still don't have a ton of faith. BUT, my best bud in the card world is heavily invested in Montero, so I can't possbily root against him. I hope he hits 60 bombs the rest of way

I honestly hadn't even thought of Montero all year until I just checked a box score and looked up his numbers.

 

[phillyfan0417]

Truth in some of that, I was never a fan, still don't have a ton of faith. BUT, my best bud in the card world is heavily invested in Montero, so I can't possbily root against him. I hope he hits 60 bombs the rest of way

I honestly hadn't even thought of Montero all year until I just checked a box score and looked up his numbers.

I have 15 or so montero chromes, gems and base and all of it is profit. Most people have had 3 different chances to cash in and most have. Plain and simple, if you bought early and sold at the right time, montero is a perfect example of successful prospecting, period.

 

[James52411]

And kudos to you for using a small sample size, an admission you havent seen him play much to decide on thee scenario's and also which one is most likely...


Also, a .280 hitter would actually make him a better hitter than bench (.267)

That's an asinine statement. It will also make him "better" than Mike Schmidt.

As for using a small sample size, it isn't THAT small at 600 at bats. I've seen Montero enough to know he has excellent oppo power but can get a bit tied up inside when he isn't squared away. I've watched a ton of baseball and I think Edgar is exactly right as his ceiling when it comes to his Montero's hitting style. I said Zeile because Montero's a below average defender to this point and might have to transition. Plus, the odds are that Montero won't be a superstar because that's the likeliest scenario for any player. As for Soto, he stinks and it would be a nightmare if Montero plays like him. I actually think that is the least likely scenario because he has a much better approach and skills and Montero broke in at an earlier age.

 

[James52411]

No, no chilling out. I've been through it with this creep for too long. After Montero's huge burst onto the scene, Mr. Roundtree shut his XXXXing mouth after taking great pleasure in trying to rip me publicly, especially when Montero started whatever year off batting like .230 into June. $500 base Chrome BGS 10 sales, $330 PSA 10 Xfractor sales, etc pretty much shut him up. Why the hell he would think I would be holding onto a significant amount of Montero cards right now is beyond me. And yes, at the time he was one of the 3 best prospects in baseball, and I still think he will be a star in the majors, so I don't know where this "I told you so" bull XXXX is coming from.

 

[boomo]

He could be Billy Butler

about one of the dumbest things i have read here.

 

[phillyfan0417]

That's an asinine statement. It will also make him "better" than Mike Schmidt.

As for using a small sample size, it isn't THAT small at 600 at bats. I've seen Montero enough to know he has excellent oppo power but can get a bit tied up inside when he isn't squared away. I've watched a ton of baseball and I think Edgar is exactly right as his ceiling when it comes to his Montero's hitting style. I said Zeile because Montero's a below average defender to this point and might have to transition. Plus, the odds are that Montero won't be a superstar because that's the likeliest scenario for any player. As for Soto, he stinks and it would be a nightmare if Montero plays like him. I actually think that is the least likely scenario because he has a much better approach and skills and Montero broke in at an earlier age.

So basically you're saying Montero will be a .300 hitter who makes multiple trips to the all star game and has a fairly successful career.

Great, thanks for the clarification.

 

[James52411]

So basically you're saying Montero will be a .300 hitter who makes multiple trips to the all star game and has a fairly successful career.

Great, thanks for the clarification.

Yep, and if that's all that happens and he stays in Seattle, his cards will slowly drop over time, particularly if it takes him another year or two to round into that form.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Here we have another player where Baseball and Baseball CARDS just arent going to "mix" well.

Another in what will be an ever growing list.

 

[matchpenalty]

I haven't researched his prices. Is now a good time to buy, all time lows now?? I know Wes was still big into buying him up after the trade and cashing in when he blows up in Seattle.

 

[Joshua.Roundtree]

No, no chilling out. I've been through it with this creep for too long. After Montero's huge burst onto the scene, Mr. Roundtree shut his XXXXing mouth after taking great pleasure in trying to rip me publicly, especially when Montero started whatever year off batting like .230 into June. $500 base Chrome BGS 10 sales, $330 PSA 10 Xfractor sales, etc pretty much shut him up. Why the hell he would think I would be holding onto a significant amount of Montero cards right now is beyond me. And yes, at the time he was one of the 3 best prospects in baseball, and I still think he will be a star in the majors, so I don't know where this "I told you so" bull XXXX is coming from.

Yes...you obviously you shut me up with your spreadsheets.

Are you kidding me? You were hyping the man everyday for two years on this message board. Now that you DON'T have any cards of him, as you say, not a peep. Amazing how that works.

If only I was near Kaintucee, I'd take great pleasure in hashing this one out face to face Mr. Internet badass.

 

[James52411]

I haven't researched his prices. Is now a good time to buy, all time lows now?? I know Wes was still big into buying him up after the trade and cashing in when he blows up in Seattle.

It depends on whether you think he can hit at a superstar level in the next year or two, either for close to an entire year or, alternatively, for the first month or two of the season. That's what it will take for his cards to spike sufficiently for you to clear a profit. I think many "prospectors" would say the buy in is still too expensive and there is much easier money to be made with guys who are in MiLB and can spike with merely good performance in the minors or a hot start after a call-up. Just my 2 cents, though.

 

[bballcardkid]

Yes...you obviously you shut me up with your spreadsheets.

Are you kidding me? You were hyping the man everyday for two years on this message board. Now that you DON'T have any cards of him, as you say, not a peep. Amazing how that works.

If only I was near Kaintucee, I'd take great pleasure in hashing this one out face to face Mr. Internet badass.

Pot, meet kettle, you XXXXing *******. If you want to fight me over a XXXXing baseball prospect, that just shows how XXXXing stupid you are. As I said last time, go jump out in front of a train and die you creepy ass stalker. I'll be sure to piss on your grave after your burried.