Which card to buy...Prospecting Decisions

[brouthercard]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

You might throw Montero into this bucket as well this year.

In terms of selling, yes. But in terms of being a "consensus" number one prospect, no. I think Montero falls short of this status.

 

[masonphillip]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

You might throw Montero into this bucket as well this year.

In terms of selling, yes. But in terms of being a "consensus" number one prospect, no. I think Montero falls short of this status.

Selling is what I meant, yeah.

 

[masonphillip]

Bump this up just one time for the evening readers.

 

[cardguy]

This is a great write up!! So thankful for the great information. I do a lot of sending in baseball rookie autos to BGS. I have been doing this for a few years now. Do not post on here a ton but do love this board. Thanks again!

 

[masonphillip]

This is a great write up!! So thankful for the great information. I do a lot of sending in baseball rookie autos to BGS. I have been doing this for a few years now. Do not post on here a ton but do love this board. Thanks again!

Glad you enjoyed it!

 

[bballcardkid]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

Heyward stuff is nowhere nere Bruce/Gordan levels. Raw Bruce blue refractors peaked at $343 with several sales in the $200-$300 range, yet Heyward golds are having a hard time breaking the $200's, the only ones being via B/O. Heyward stuff definately isn't touching Upton's peak, and arguably isn't as hot as Maybin's peak. Count me in the group that says keep unless you get a ridiculous best offer.

 

[Mudcatsfan]

to find later. sounds interesting.

 

[mredsox89]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

Heyward stuff is nowhere nere Bruce/Gordan levels. Raw Bruce blue refractors peaked at $343 with several sales in the $200-$200 range, yet Heyward golds are having a hard time breaking the $200's, the only ones being via B/O. Heyward stuff definately isn't touching Upton's peak, and arguably isn't as hot as Maybin's peak. Count me in the group that says keep unless you get a ridiculous best offer.

But i think that has more to do with the time than the actual hype. Prospecting has definitely cooled off, not to mention the economy hadn't collapsed when Bruce/Gordon stuff first came out.

 

[bballcardkid]

If you replace Jay Bruce or Alex Gordon with Jason Heyward, it would be the same thing. Sell now or at least within the next month or two.

This happens year after year after year. If you are a true Heyward fan, wait a couple years, just look at what Bruce and Gordon is selling for nowadays.

I don't want to hear any whiners say "but wait, Heyward is the next Pujols". Virtually all the previous number one prospects have been the next Pujols. Stop whining.

Prospectors, if you can make a profit, then sell.

Heyward stuff is nowhere nere Bruce/Gordan levels. Raw Bruce blue refractors peaked at $343 with several sales in the $200-$200 range, yet Heyward golds are having a hard time breaking the $200's, the only ones being via B/O. Heyward stuff definately isn't touching Upton's peak, and arguably isn't as hot as Maybin's peak. Count me in the group that says keep unless you get a ridiculous best offer.

But i think that has more to do with the time than the actual hype. Prospecting has definitely cooled off, not to mention the economy hadn't collapsed when Bruce/Gordon stuff first came out.

Bruce blew up right after he was named the number 1 prospect according to Baseball America. If somehow or another, BA manages to rate Heyward as the number one prospect over Strasburg, that would be the time to sale.

 

[Wes]

This "sell now" sky is falling stuff is a load of garbage. Barring injury his stuff will not go down until he debuts. Bruce's highest sales took place in his first two weeks as a major leaguer after trending upward quickly beginning around December. Selling now is missing out on two months or more of additional hype.

 

[masonphillip]

This "sell now" sky is falling stuff is a load of garbage. Barring injury his stuff will not go down until he debuts. Bruce's highest sales took place in his first two weeks as a major leaguer after trending upward quickly beginning around December. Selling now is missing out on two months or more of additional hype.

The point made above about Gordon is a good one.

I remember talking to a guy in a card shop here in KC who said he'd pay $400 for a PSA 10 Chrome Auto if he could find one. The thing is, he hardly could, even at that price.

Heyward is not near those prices.

 

[CollectorsCorner]

so being new to this you are saying oranges/golds/reds sell high right away and do not have as much chance to go up as the regular and refractors? but with that you mean players that are hot coming out and not sleepers

 

[Wes]

so being new to this you are saying oranges/golds/reds sell high right away and do not have as much chance to go up as the regular and refractors? but with that you mean players that are hot coming out and not sleepers

The autos killed it more than anything else. The main point is that non auto BC's are an extra risky investment.

 

[masonphillip]

so being new to this you are saying oranges/golds/reds sell high right away and do not have as much chance to go up as the regular and refractors? but with that you mean players that are hot coming out and not sleepers

The autos killed it more than anything else. The main point is that non auto BC's are an extra risky investment.

Especially the higher-end ones. If the player performs well enough base chromes will always take off I think.

 

[CollectorsCorner]

so being new to this you are saying oranges/golds/reds sell high right away and do not have as much chance to go up as the regular and refractors? but with that you mean players that are hot coming out and not sleepers

The autos killed it more than anything else. The main point is that non auto BC's are an extra risky investment.

ok so austin jackson for example I have a refractor that I pulled non auto sells for 10 bucks or whatever but since he now has an auto in chrome its not gonna be as good

 

[Wes]

[quote="J-Rod":wbppq7th]so being new to this you are saying oranges/golds/reds sell high right away and do not have as much chance to go up as the regular and refractors? but with that you mean players that are hot coming out and not sleepers

The autos killed it more than anything else. The main point is that non auto BC's are an extra risky investment.

ok so austin jackson for example I have a refractor that I pulled non auto sells for 10 bucks or whatever but since he now has an auto in chrome its not gonna be as good[/quote:wbppq7th]

Yep.

 

[CollectorsCorner]

dang I thought I had a decent pull :?

 

[masonphillip]

dang I thought I had a decent pull :?

I'm assuming your talking about 2008 bowman w/chrome?

Honestly, if people are going to buy A-Jax it is going to be either 2007 Elite Extra Autos or 2008 Bowman Chrome Autos.

In the case of the analysis I ran on Hewyard, he didn't have a base chrome that came out a year after an auto. However, I'm confident, if he did, it would have one of, if not the lowest ROI.

 

[CollectorsCorner]

don't remember which product I pulled it out of I would have to dig the card out or just post a scan

 

[masonphillip]

don't remember which product I pulled it out of I would have to dig the card out or just post a scan

Yep, that's 2008 Bowman with Chrome. I busted a few cases of that myself and pulled 2 of those. Sold them the minute I pulled them.