Why Strasburg might be better than we think

[cgilmo]

Just read an interesting BA article on thier prospects blog that points out Strasburg's change up as a pitch that makes him even more deadly.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=6992

PHOENIX—For all the accolades Stephen Strasburg has received, he might be even better than you think.

Strasburg didn’t have much need to throw his changeup at San Diego State, not with an arm that consistently pumps mid- to high-90s fastballs and a filthy breaking ball.

Strasburg does have a good changeup though, as Aaron Fitt points out in the Nationals top 10 scouting reports, and the Arizona Fall League provides him with the perfect outlet to mix in his changeup against more advanced hitters. It’s plus pitch at 88-91 mph with good sink, which the Peoria Saguaros found out on Saturday.

 

[HPC]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

However, with a fastball that good, a changeup will make him even more devastating.

If he can develop a slider similar to RJ, I think he he could be amazing!

 

[cgilmo]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

None that were studs on the level of a Strasburg / Prior type. Besides those two, I can't remember a college pitcher who got this much hype.

 

[HPC]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

None that were studs on the level of a Strasburg / Prior type. Besides those two, I can't remember a college pitcher who got this much hype.

Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers (No. 1, 1997)
Anderson threw about 100 mph (105 on the Fox radar gun) at Rice, so the Tigers made the perplexing decision to draft a relief pitcher with the top pick. Like the time they hired Bo Schembechler as team president, this one didn't quite work out.

 

[notjomommasclint]

i think the best comparison in the majors at this point is max scherzer. a +++ fastball with movement.

what the hell my entire post didnt get posted!!!

sooooooo.... there have been plenty of players come in with the same skill set as strasburg but 1/2 the hype. verlander has the same skills and he gets whacked around every now and again. the big thing to me is that straus can maintain his control. as we have seen in the last few years guys who lose their heater can continue to pitch at a high level with a salty 2 and 3 pitch as long as they have control.

 

[cgilmo]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

None that were studs on the level of a Strasburg / Prior type. Besides those two, I can't remember a college pitcher who got this much hype.

Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers (No. 1, 1997)
Anderson threw about 100 mph (105 on the Fox radar gun) at Rice, so the Tigers made the perplexing decision to draft a relief pitcher with the top pick. Like the time they hired Bo Schembechler as team president, this one didn't quite work out.

The hype machine wasn't full force in 1997. New media has the ability to extend hype well beyond what was capable in 1997. Anderson didn't get the hype Strasburg does simply because of this.

 

[George_Calfas]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

None that were studs on the level of a Strasburg / Prior type. Besides those two, I can't remember a college pitcher who got this much hype.

Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers (No. 1, 1997)
Anderson threw about 100 mph (105 on the Fox radar gun) at Rice, so the Tigers made the perplexing decision to draft a relief pitcher with the top pick. Like the time they hired Bo Schembechler as team president, this one didn't quite work out.

The hype machine wasn't full force in 1997. New media has the ability to extend hype well beyond what was capable in 1997. Anderson didn't get the hype Strasburg does simply because of this.

Exactly why teams, fans, and collectors should be even more leery. All the hype could come through or crash and burn, a-la Brien Taylor.

 

[ChasHawk]

I think we need to see him perform at a major league level and not a fall/winter league to make any real assumption

How many pitchers were studs in college only to post 5.00 ERA's in the bigs

None that were studs on the level of a Strasburg / Prior type. Besides those two, I can't remember a college pitcher who got this much hype.

Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers (No. 1, 1997)
Anderson threw about 100 mph (105 on the Fox radar gun) at Rice, so the Tigers made the perplexing decision to draft a relief pitcher with the top pick. Like the time they hired Bo Schembechler as team president, this one didn't quite work out.

The hype machine wasn't full force in 1997. New media has the ability to extend hype well beyond what was capable in 1997. Anderson didn't get the hype Strasburg does simply because of this.

Exactly why teams, fans, and collectors should be even more leery. All the hype could come through or crash and burn, a-la Brien Taylor.

Strasburg is going to fight somebody in a trailer park?


:lol:

 

[cgilmo]

charlie, it was a bar

 

[jbone17]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

 

[cgilmo]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

Bud Smith's hype came based on a no hitter in the big leagues.

 

[ChasHawk]

charlie, it was a bar

Not according to this article

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/jul/14/tracking_down_brien_taylor/

Always heard the bar brawl thing was a rumor, but idk.

 

[jbone17]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

Bud Smith's hype came based on a no hitter in the big leagues.

Okay, did he still have hype? He showed us what he could do in the big leagues......and that is suck.

 

[cgilmo]

charlie, it was a bar

Not according to this article

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2006/jul/14/tracking_down_brien_taylor/

Always heard the bar brawl thing was a rumor, but idk.

i never bothered to read the whole story


the bar explanation was believable enough, so I never questioned it.

 

[cgilmo]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

Bud Smith's hype came based on a no hitter in the big leagues.

Okay, did he still have hype? He showed us what he could do in the big leagues......and that is suck.

You said, until this kid shows you in the bigs what he can do, all bets are off.


Bud Smith showed you what he could do in the bigs, and that was throw a no hitter. Were all bets off on him? I partially agree with what you are saying, I just think you used the absolute worst example possible.

 

[phillyfan0417]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

Bud Smith's hype came based on a no hitter in the big leagues.

Okay, did he still have hype? He showed us what he could do in the big leagues......and that is suck.

You said, until this kid shows you in the bigs what he can do, all bets are off.


Bud Smith showed you what he could do in the bigs, and that was throw a no hitter. Were all bets off on him? I partially agree with what you are saying, I just think you used the absolute worst example possible.

Also, those who think he will be a bust are picking one of the 3 possible scenarios.

He's a Star
He's a average ML'er
He's a bust

 

[jbone17]

Listen, until this kid shows me in the bigs what he can do, than all bets are off. There have benn numerous busts before that have had hype in the past and didn't come through. Bud Smith, Matt Anderson, etc.

Bud Smith's hype came based on a no hitter in the big leagues.

Okay, did he still have hype? He showed us what he could do in the big leagues......and that is suck.

You said, until this kid shows you in the bigs what he can do, all bets are off.


Bud Smith showed you what he could do in the bigs, and that was throw a no hitter. Were all bets off on him? I partially agree with what you are saying, I just think you used the absolute worst example possible.

Not really. If Strasburg comes up and sucks, then he will potentially become a Bud Smith. What difference does it make on where you obtain hype? You can still obtain hype in the bigs and suck. Strasburg has obviously obtained the hype as being a number one pick and a freak in JUCO. So, it does not matter on where you obtain hype. Do you only think hype is obtained outside of the big leagues? Hype carries over.

 

[HPC]

Comparing him to Scherzer is spot on

Both throw heat and have a decent repetoire, but, their teams respectively suck

(Although Diamondbacks are way better than Washington)

I could see Stras posting numbers similar to Max if he starts right away.

If they go the Feliz route, he could post numbers like him too.

Either way, I think Scherzer and Feliz are great comparisons of current ML'ers

 

[cgilmo]

Jbone, if you can't see the fallacy in your bud smith, strasburg hype comparison then well I feel sorry for you.


Bud Smith wasn't even a blip on the radar next to what Strasburg has been recently. I am not convinced any pitching prospect has ever gotten this kinda hype outside Taylor. And when compared to Taylor, Stras comes out ahead due to an equally high ceiling and a much lower floor.

Stras is a guaranteed major league pitcher (barring injury) and Taylor was a high school signee. We all know of the long road that a high school pitcher has to walk before he is ready for the big leagues, and that college pitchers are often a different story.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

Anytime a Bud Smith reference is brought up, it's typically regarding a confused understanding of the luck that a no-hitter can bring.

All of that said, let's remember...we've seen Strasburg in the AFL. And to put that into perspective...a "non-prospect" by most named Matt McBride is leading the league in OPS.