Wins against replacement (WAR) is crap isn't it really?

[pootshwan]

You cannot compare WAR across eras, most SABR stats don't work like that.

Gilmore - most SABR stats do work like that. That is one of the main goals of those efforts - to normalize across eras in order to provide context for comparisons.

This is correct. Many SABR statistics create a numeric value for comparison no matter what the era. I'm pretty sure that's one of the reason's SABR were created.

 

[Guest]

WAR is one of the most revolutionary breakthroughs in statistics since Henry Chadwick began keeping them in the 1850s.

They are an excellent measure of a player's single-season performance, but is not a good measure of a player's entire career. Because games played over a career is a variable I never look at one player's career WAR vs. another's. However, when using a sample size where the number of games is constant, I think it is both a reliable and accurate comparitive tool.

I think it is a crap stat. So you are saying Eddie Perez is a better player than Javy Lopez? Perez just happened to play in all of the games Greg Maddux pitched! Kind of unfair to Lopez, don't you think? I am pretty sure they win those games with Lopez too.

Where does WAR state that Eddie Perez is a better player than Javy Lopez? Perez had one season as a legitimate starter WAR 2+. Lopez had one All-Star WAR 5+ season and an additional four Starter WAR 2+ seasons. Lopez blows Perez away in WAR.

 

[Guest]

I think the greatest mistake some of you are making with is looking at career WAR. This statistic is irrelevant as a comparitive statistic because the number of games played is variable.

In order to compare two players the number of games played must be constant. Therefore, you must take a smaller sample size (I use 5 years, some prefer 10) in order to accurately compare two players. And yes, it does work across eras because it is era adjusted.

 

[predatorkj]

Can someone define WAR for me? I always thought it meant wins over replacement but as far as replacement, I was always of the theory it mean replacement as far as the actual guy on the team already who is sitting on the bench and would be able to fill up that spot on the field and in the lineup should the starter need to be replaced. You guys are mentioning free agents? Is WAR used to to measure Your starter versus those on other teams?

 

[natsprospects26]

Based on this thread, I might have to say that WAR is a crap statistic. It is my understanding that WAR was created not only to assess player value, but as a sabermetric statistic that the general public/front offices can understand. This doesn't appear to be the case, having taken a look at this thread.

My take:

I think it's useful as a "tool" as part of a greater analysis for player's value. Much like any one source of information, it is not a tell all statistic. UZR is close to be what I consider to be an adequate statistic, but this hinders WAR's effectiveness/accuracy.

I do like that it gives you a basis for the player's value based on all of his statistics; running, batting, and fielding. While it isn't unprecedented, I have yet to see a better statistic that values players with a high degree of accuracy.


edit: ballerskrip, I really like that article. What's your opinion on Eddie Bane?

 

[George_Calfas]

[youtube:1aynknza]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGxUIXBMorM[/youtube:1aynknza]

 

[thefatguy]

WAR is for grading current players. IMO it's also very dependand on season. It should not be used to determing whether someone gets into the HOF in YOUR opinion.

 

[dp33]

*Wins Above Replacement.

Sabermetrics are a huge part in front offices evaluating players today. As a Sport Management major, we dealt with sabermetric calculations regularly as a part of our Statistics course. WAR is usually used when determining the value of players when deciding whether or not to pull the trigger on a guy in free agency or via trade. The statistic does just what it says- places a value of a particular player (in wins) over his replacement (a bench player or prospect). I know guys like Theo place a heavy emphasis on the various sabermetric calculations available to them when assessing the value (both monetary and performance-wise) of a player.

Edit: I'm glad you brought this up. A quick search shows that Boston actually has 2 "sabermetricians" on staff- was not even aware of that.

I would say that you are GREATLY overestimating the use of these stats across baseball. YES, some teams do use this information, ala Boston. But not every team uses these stats or relies on them. I was in a Front Office for a year, sat in on many many meetings about trades, free agency, etc, and the acronym WAR or the actually phrase was never brought up once.

Again, there are teams out there that rely on sabremetrics, there are others that don't.

Here is GREAT interview from BA that anyone and everyone who thinks they know about scouting, want to know more about scouting, or just find it interesting should read.

GREAT ARTICLE LINK

skrip

Let me guess - Pirates?

That is very surprising to me that there are teams out there that don't rely on sabermetrics. I honestly can't think of one good reason not to use them, especially now that they are so readily available.

 

[nosterbor]

Edwin Starr said it best.
[youtube:1cm5ck0b]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8C4AIFgUg[/youtube:1cm5ck0b]

Ditto! big time!

 

[nosterbor]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

I'm not so sure about this given the stat is about comparing replacement players and because negative WAR is possible. The all-time career WAR leader list seems pretty solid to me.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

I think the greatest mistake some of you are making with is looking at career WAR. This statistic is irrelevant as a comparitive statistic because the number of games played is variable.

In order to compare two players the number of games played must be constant. Therefore, you must take a smaller sample size (I use 5 years, some prefer 10) in order to accurately compare two players. And yes, it does work across eras because it is era adjusted.

 

[reljac]

As a statistician, I looked at the WAR formula and it leaves me with a lot of questions....

It tries to summarize a lot of information that may not be as strongly correlated to be used as some sort of definitive tool should be.

It makes an attempt to reduce the value of hitters whom hit earlier in the order since they get more at bats and it doesn't want to 'overvalue them'. Yet better hitters are normally put earlier in the order so that they can bat more.

It also assumes that hitting is uniform... in other words If during a ten year span the home run leader only hits 20 homers a year... it assumes that the game is different (for instance better pitching, mound height, called balls/strikes) as opposed to the possibility that there may be a vaccuum of good hitters. Same is true in pitching...

The statistic also tries to normalize stats, for instance: 2009 values per 1,350 innings (150 games): Catcher 10 runs, Shortstop 7.5 runs, Second Base 3 runs, Third Base 2 runs, Center Field -2.5 runs, Right and Left Field -7.5 runs, First Base -10 runs, Designated Hitter -15 runs. So down years at a certain position will boost a player that is a standout at that position. While a time when there are several outstanding players at a position it will water them down in comparison to their peers at other positions.


In the end WAR is an excellent tool if you are the GM of a team, but is only an ok tool at differentiating between players to determine greatness.

WAR and most other statistics will always fail to include player's contributions to the game. Which should be the strongest indicator of Hall of Fame Status.

 

[hofautos]

*Wins Above Replacement.

Sabermetrics are a huge part in front offices evaluating players today. As a Sport Management major, we dealt with sabermetric calculations regularly as a part of our Statistics course. WAR is usually used when determining the value of players when deciding whether or not to pull the trigger on a guy in free agency or via trade. The statistic does just what it says- places a value of a particular player (in wins) over his replacement (a bench player or prospect). I know guys like Theo place a heavy emphasis on the various sabermetric calculations available to them when assessing the value (both monetary and performance-wise) of a player.

Edit: I'm glad you brought this up. A quick search shows that Boston actually has 2 "sabermetricians" on staff- was not even aware of that.

I agree, it makes sense that it can be used for those purposes, but some people like using WAR/WINSHARES to suggest players from the past to players of the present to suggest a player in the past is better than a player of the present.

Winshares and WAR should only be used to compare players of the same period.

 

[craftysouthpaw]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

Defense matters

 

[elmalo]

I like the opinion of the guys who actually play the game about sabermetrics!

Youkilis, a guy many people first heard about by virtue of him being prominently mentioned in “Moneyball” — and a guy who plays for arguably the most stat-savvy team in baseball — don’t need no stinkin’ sabermetrics:

“I don’t go off all those UZRs . . . is it UZR?” Youkilis said. “I
don’t even know what it is. I hope my UZR is sick, along with my OBSTR.

“I don’t know how they do it. How do you measure defense? You make
an error, you make an error. You get to a ball, you don’t get to a
ball. What if you have a bad hamstring and you can’t get to a ball up
the line? I don’t know what they evaluate, but a good ballplayer is a
good ballplayer.”

 

[thefatguy]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

Defense matters

Wrong

backflips matter

Defence is meh

 

[Hallsgator]

Sabermetrics just dig deeper than regular stats, it uncovers the errors in "regular" stats (RBI, OBP, Hits, etc). It's a good way to see what value a player can bring to your team. But like any stats, it has to go hand in hand with actual scouting. You're not going to get a full picture of how a good/bad a player is or will be without watching them, and I think a lot of people try to just use sabermetrics/stats to judge players and it can't work like that, especially when trying to project players or compare players who are close statistically.

Condensed version: Scouting > stats, but stats added to a scouting report, will help provide a stronger reason why a player will succeed or fail.

 

[nosterbor]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

Defense matters

fielding % .983

 

[ChasHawk]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

who is is that you think is ranked 239th?

according to baseball-reference, Charlie Keller & Thurman Munson are tied for 239th.

 

[nosterbor]

this player stats for 162 games for 15 year
G... PA.. AB. R... H.. 2B.3B.HR.RBI.SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
162 686 629 102 186 37 2 42 135 2 2 44 122 .295 .343 .561 .904 132

his war ranks 239th all time
you are telling me a player that can hit .295 with 42 home runs 135 RBI's
.561 SLG every year at 162 game avg every year for 15 years and ranks 239th all time?
who the hell would not want this player on a team?
the war stat is CRAP!

who is is that you think is ranked 239th?

according to baseball-reference, Charlie Keller & Thurman Munson are tied for 239th.

sorry that was his Offensive WAR† s c a p y
1993 AL 6.9 (4th)
1998 AL 5.4 (7th)
Career 41.7 (239th)
his overall WAR ranks him 386!!!!!!!!!!! so if you are a GM and use this stat, you need to take B.J. Surhoff with a WAR ranking of 367TH over Juan Gonzalez with a ranking of 386th that stat is a JOKE!!!!!