Prospecting question

cubfanbudman · Jan 5, 2013

I collect Cubs prospects and noticed that prices have gotten a tad crazy in the last year. For instance when 2011 BDPP released you could pick up Javier Baez Blue autos for right around 60$

Fast forward to the last few releases and guys like Soler, and Almora are selling for crazy money right out of the gate.

My question is with prospect cards seemingly "busting out the gate" a lot higher than in the past ( I guess it's the Trout effect) is anyone having success in prospecting, and is there really a lot of money to be made on them when they start out so high?

All The Hype · Jan 5, 2013

Remember that prospect prices are so volatile that SOMEONE is always making money, no matter what the gate prices happen to be. It's just about putting your money in the right place at the right time, which is easier said than done, but SOMEONE will find a way.

AmishDave · Jan 5, 2013

If you're buying Cubs, stay far far away from Tony Zych.

swish54_99 · Jan 6, 2013

Those 3 are really really good and will hopefully be the core (along with Castro) of when the Cubs are finally good. People have nothing to look forward to at the mlb level, so they turn to the prospects for some light.

As far as buying/selling prospects it's hard to do. You have to know when to sell and you are basing it all on potential. A HOF'ers stuff isn't going to fluxuate near as much from the time they get into the HOF until the time they pass away. While a prospects value can be like a rollercoaster. It'll go up with they get drafted, then when they get called up, but there's always the unkown of them getting sent back down (Anthony Rizzo in 2011) no matter how big a prospect they are. Plus a prospect could get hurt at any moment and never be the same and then you're screwed on making money.

SydBarrett · Jan 6, 2013

I think the most unfortunate circumstance of your collecting is exactly what swish said; because of the way baseball card collecting has trended over the past 15 years, and how prospects are now the Golden boys of collecting and because the Chicago Cubs are for lack of a better term, terrible, people that are fans of the organization are flocking to the prospects.

hive17 · Jan 6, 2013

The Cubs have been drafting good players much higher for a few years now, so that has to factor in. The same was true with KC for most of the last few drafts.

Junior Griffey · Jan 6, 2013

If you look at some of the Cubs' past options for prospect autos it makes sense. Soler and Almora are rated much higher out of the gate than many of the past. Hell, even Baez started out cheap...I was paying $13 and $25 for chrome and refractor autos out of the gate. Even Candelario is pretty highly rated. Much better than guys of the past like Eric Patterson or Trey McNutt. I can't think of any other older Cubs prospects with autos other than Samardzija and Vitters.

cubfanbudman · Jan 6, 2013

I know Soler and Almora are looked at as the "future" of the Cubs along with Baez, and with the Cubs being so bad Theo has talked about the minor league players a lot more than normal and with that casual fans are hearing these guys being touted as saviors. I guess I just noticed the big spike in prospects this past year. I mean guys like Dahl, Russell, Zunino, Castellanos. All these guys colored refractors have been selling for stupid money.

So for example when BC released and Soler blue autos were selling between 250-300$ for quite a while after release what would he have to do for buyers to see that kind of money back? Maybe it's me but for prospectors I don't see how there can be any meat left on the bone.

smapdi · Jan 6, 2013

You can't quite compare Baez in 2011 with Soler and Almora in 2012. Soler and Almora were a couple of the most anticipated RCs in the whole sport. Baez was highly-touted but not quite on the same tier, IMHO, as the other two. A better comparison might be, I dunno, Bauer or Bundy with Soler/Almora, as far as hype level, which is what pricing of draft picks is all about.

Yes, it seems each year there's a little ratcheting up of the price on the best cards of the best prospects on release. But the key is not to buy the guys who sell for $50 out of the pack. Buy the guys who are $5 out of the pack, and $50 next year.

shayscards79 · Jan 6, 2013

I wish I would have bought more Baez when he was cheap last year. Although I did pick up a blue for $70.

Not making mistake with Candelario, Vogelbach and Almora. I'm excited that the Cubs have a lot of talent at high A and lower.

Honestly, I usually have a guideline with most prospects I buy. Machado was the highest I went on to pay above the average sale price of typical good prospects. $30 for a base, $40-45 for a refractor, $100-$120 for a blue, etc. I believe it usually falls in line with that percentage of increase. If you are patient you shouldn't have to pay more than those prices.

There is a sweet spot for buying prospects after a product comes out imo, usually two weeks after release until about two months after for good players.

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Prospecting question

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