Sets you believe will retain their value over time

A post in another thread had me thinking about this.

One of the reasons I collect the 2000 APOH 3000 Club Auto cards (as seen in my sig) is because I believe that they will retain their value over time. IMO it's somewhat of an iconic set and therefore I feel like they should always do well (although the price point is so high now that I may be dreaming...) If I did not feel comfortable that I could recoup much of the investment at some time if needed, I don't think I'd collect the set as it is too pricey.

I've been trying to think of (modern, say post 1990) sets that I believe will retain their value. (Focusing on sets, not individual cards. I also believe the rookie auto cards of big names will have lasting value, but IMO that's a different discussion.) The one's I've come up with are:

1997 UD game-used (Griffey, Gwynn and Ordonez)
1999 APOH 500 club bat and bat auto sets
2000 APOH 3000 club bat, bat/jersey and auto sets

early HOF sets like:
1997 and 1998 Donruss Significant Signatures Auto sets (really affordable sets as well)
2000 Fleer Greats of the Game Autos
2001 SP Legendary Cuts Autos

2000 fleer (fleer???? Really????) Club 3000 set. See sig. As someone trying to build this set it retains its value incredibly.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Freedom Card Board mobile app

Now I know we have some very prestigious collectors and collections here on this site. But I've got to say I don't feel the kinds of sets you're describing are widely collected because of the cost factor. Do people collect them? Hell yeah. But in my eyes it's not the norm. I guess what in trying to say is I'm not sure I think these sets retaining value matters too much because I just don't think they are primarily collected that way. A card by card retention of value is what I look at for stuff like that. My question would be...what's an affordable set that is normally collected as a set, that will retain value?

I would think for a modern set to retain value it needs three things:

1. Demand (obviously)
2. Somewhat limited supply
3. Good name recognition - the set is remembered as being huge when it came out, it's iconic, etc.

Off the top of my head I would say 1993 Finest Refractors are a good bet to retain their current value.

Given the huge swings in value at least some of the sets in the OP's list have had, it's tough to predict that anything will never lose value. I mean, all the sets listed have seen prices way higher than what they are now, with the possible exception of the 2000 Fleer GOTG short-prints, and the autographed versions of the POH cards.

Other than what's already mentioned, I'd put 1998 Crusade Reds on the list, and maybe the Purples. Greens too I suppose, but they're already so cheap mostly that they can't really go lower. 2001 Topps Heritage chromes #/552 have been strong for a long time, though pricing for the bulk of the set goes up and down. The guy listing most of the singles in the set on ebay asking $60 per common is going to wait a long time, but McGwires, Ripkens, Jeters, Bonds, etc., are pretty like gold. But the days of being able to pick up commons for < $5 are long gone. Enough people collect the set to keep a reasonably high floor.

Funny how the sets people are listing are all at least 10 years old. Will nothing from 2003-onward withstand the test of time? I'm sure some things would, but they're likely only ones that are extremely short-printed or are unique. 2002 Topps 206 or 205 Bazooka parallels for instance, or the 1/1 ASG patch card booklets from Triple Threads. But they are so rare I don't think you'd really count them for what the OP's talking about.

Going father afield, 1997 UD Legends football autographs are still very solid, especially the SPs. In basketball, I'm continued to be impressed/angered how the base cards of 2003 Exquisite (42 cards #/225) are always strong. I built that set when it came out and sold it for a nice profit at $600, IIRC. Now the Jordan card is about that much by itself. Then there are the ridiculous premiums for rare inserts, even for guys not named Jordan or Kobe. And I know some people go into conniptions when Magic is mentioned, but the original set and it's first couple expansions are coming up on 20 years old now and the game is stronger than ever, and globally popular. Alpha and Beta sets, Arabian Nights, and Antiquities sets are always in demand, and key singles from those and some later sets are like platinum.

2001 Topps Heritage Baseball - The entire product

Shanks - That is a sick set and is probably there with the APOH sets. It seems to be less popular overall, but that has created a lower price point, and at that price point I would definitely agree with you.

predatorkj - I agree with you that for most people those sets are not collected for dollar values, and they are at price points beyond most people (although the Significant Signatures sets is pretty affordable and even the GoTG is not bad outside of the few SP's.) I believe that that actually plays a role here. When it comes to a regular set, the reality is that many of the current players could have auto's and game-used for the next 50 years, and so it is only when there is something that is not replicable that a set could really stand out from amongst so many options. Sometimes it's the first of its kind, sometimes it's something else... With regard to some of these sets, the scarcity and the like mean that it does not have to be a huge number of followers, just enough to balance the supply and demand at a high price point.

Dilferules - I totally agree.

smapdi - Love the post and completely agree. There's no question that with anything cardboard, there are certainly no guarantees. I do think that the shifts that we saw with some of these sets was more early on as the market was trying to get a feel for them, and things were still greatly in flux (when some of these came out, game-used was still insanely expensive etc.) I also like the sets you mentioned. As far as more recent sets, a lot of the recent stuff seems to be retreads, and especially with the game-used being more and more questionable, that hurts. Even the 2005 Absolute stuff I kind of feel like outside the key cards (Ruth jumbo etc.) I'm not sure how well the set is holding up, though I may be wrong on this.

I think the most important determining factor of whether a set will increase (or just maintain?) its value relates to how memorable the set is. Although this sounds overly simplistic, there are so many sets out there that people can't know them all and they all start to lump together. Esoteric sets lose value when people currently collecting them move to something different (or start to die off). Sets aren't as memorable today because there are so, so many of them to keep track of.

Personally I don't think most auto/GU/patch sets are particularly memorable because people tend to remember the auto/GU/patch and not the overall card design. This in addition to all the well-documented problems autos/GU/patches have will make it difficult (for me at least) to think these sets are good investments. Full authenticated memorabilia (incl. auto'd memorabilia) is probably a much better investment as full memorabilia is, well, simpler and easier for an average person to understand than cards with autos/GU/patches.

josephcb09 said:

2001 Topps Heritage Baseball - The entire product

Click to expand...

2001 Topps Heritage Chromes are essentially /551. These aren't going anywhere.

2001 - Complete Photos by heritagetrade | Photobucket

Also, I'm hoping the Heritage blacks hold their value, otherwise I am sitting on nice chunk of dime box cards.

I believe the 2006 Allen & Ginter autograph set will continue to hold it's value over the years. Great design, great checklist and on card autographs.

Sent from my VS840 4G using Freedom Card Board mobile app

2005 UD Ultimate signatures is a great set and has stayed very strong in the secondary market.

1992 Leaf, but thats a given

really hope that the 1999 UD FB SP Signature auto's hold up & maybe grow. A lot of current & a few future HOF'ers plus a few rookies. Great design, clean on card auto's against a white background. Not going to be long untill all of the players in the set will be retired.

wolfmanalfredo said:

1992 Leaf, but thats a given

Click to expand...

Yes, it will hold that $5 set value forever

If we're going to talk about early GU sets, the 1997 Leaf Frank Thomas has to be up there. The 1997 UD Rey Ordonez can be had dirt cheap, and the Gwynn certainly doesn't have the same value it once did. The Griffey, of course, is going to hold great value and then some. But have the Leaf Thomases ever been cheap? Seems like these have always been very high-priced since the set came out, and rightfully so (low print run, surefire HOFer, and the presence of some sick patches long before anyone ever thought of faking a patch).

DeliciousBacon said:

Yes, it will hold that $5 set value forever

Click to expand...

Thats gold imo. Argueably the greatest set of all time.

2005 absolute jumbos

Good point, unopened boxes are more valuable than almost anything in them. I guess that's true about any set at any time, but it increases sharply with a product that's deemed "good."

The Heritage blacks are tough to figure. I've been looking at ebay listings for them lately, thinking I might start picking up stars. They meet my criteria for being a) generally attractive, b) being the top-end parallel, and c) having a good checklist generally, though 110 or so players, plus updates in later years, tends to include some question marks. I am not sure if they would ever take off hugely in a general way like, say, Topps Tek Diffractors or Crusades did. But I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I know my Frank Thomases are some of my favorites in my Frank collection. But I wonder if they'll be diminished now they're coming out with an even rarer parallel.