Investing in Elijah Dukes

Topnotchsy · Apr 16, 2009

I was wondering what people thought about investing in Elijah Dukes. If one extrapolates his stats from last season over a full season he'd have been right around 30 homers and 30 steals with a .386 OBP. This season he's been hitting for batting average and power so far and has stayed out of real trouble for over a year now.

Meanwhile his Bowman Auto is a $5 card or so, and his Chrome stuff has stayed low. His history is enough to keep some away, but IMO there's great potential with minimal risk. (Full disclosure, I hold a decent amount of Dukes stuff already, and will likely pick up some more if it remains cheap.)

200lbhockeyplayer · Apr 16, 2009

I saw the post title and I thought this was going to be something about starting a bail bond company in the greater DC area.

Regardless, the kid has talent, but I need a longer track record of success than problems before I'll make the leap.

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

200lbhockeyplayer said:
I saw the post title and I thought this was going to be something about starting a bail bond company in the greater DC area.

Regardless, the kid has talent, but I need a longer track record of success than problems before I'll make the leap.

What would it take to change your view? (I'm curious, as if yours is the prevailing mindset, it might take significant on-field performance to see a real increase in popularity.) While I'm way more worried that he'd get in trouble than say...Carl Crawford or most anyone else, a year+ of staying out of real trouble, and the low cost of entry have my attention. No prospect in the $5 for a RC Auto range has close to the potential.

aw00d05 · Apr 17, 2009

I'd maybe pick up a few of his 1st rc auto's since I'm sure they're cheap and hope he does something great that gets publiced, because he won't even if he hits 35 HR's steals 30 and hits .300 because his team flat out sucks.

200lbhockeyplayer · Apr 17, 2009

I completely agree with the low cost, therefore little financial risk, but I just am not sold on the potential for reward.

Washington is where player hype goes to die. They never get any hype, never any excitement...and to me, I'd place them as the least collectible/profitable franchise out there.

Dukes has some demons which does skew my opinion up front, but I'm just not sold on him ever being a major league star. He put up good power numbers last season when playing, but we'll see when those scouting reports get out and see how he responds.

aw00d05 · Apr 17, 2009

200lbhockeyplayer said:
I completely agree with the low cost, therefore little financial risk, but I just am not sold on the potential for reward.

Washington is where player hype goes to die. They never get any hype, never any excitement...and to me, I'd place them as the least collectible/profitable franchise out there.

Dukes has some demons which does skew my opinion up front, but I'm just not sold on him ever being a major league star. He put up good power numbers last season when playing, but we'll see when those scouting reports get out and see how he responds.

Just hope he somehow goes to NY, LA or Boston.

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

I firmly believe that any city can have a fan favorite, and can play host to a player who is a hobby star. People said the Marlins (who had the lowest attendance in baseball last season) did not have the fans and Hanley showed that if a player is good enough, people will notice him (of course in NY or Boston he'd be worth a lot more.) The Nats actually finished in the middle 3rd in attendance last season (albeit near the bottom in 19th place) better than Seattle (Ichiro) Minnesota (Mauer, Morneau and Liriano) and Cleveland (Sizemore.)

IMO the reason Washington is looked down on has a lot to do with the fact that they've had no player who came close to being a star in years and years. The only star they've had was a single season of Alfonso Soriano, and for those who may have forgotten, Soriano's RC Auto's reached their highest prices in many years during that season (prices that were only matched as a young stud on the Yanks.)

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

Any other opinions?

moxacaine · Apr 17, 2009

i like him and he has great potential if he can stay out of trouble. i have a small stash of his chrome stuff.

Kutzy · Apr 17, 2009

All he has is the 07 Bowman auto correct? Then he has Chrome non auto. Those have the RC logo on them, but are his first cards, correct?

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

Kutzy said:
All he has is the 07 Bowman auto correct? Then he has Chrome non auto. Those have the RC logo on them, but are his first cards, correct?

He also has a 2007 Topps Co-Signers Auto (of which the /5 ends tomorrow, a card I want but unfortunately can't bid on.)

moxacaine · Apr 17, 2009

Kutzy said:
All he has is the 07 Bowman auto correct? Then he has Chrome non auto. Those have the RC logo on them, but are his first cards, correct?

correct, his first chrome is his RC logo from 07 BC.

Wes · Apr 17, 2009

Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

LLWesMan said:
Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Would you be willing to name some?

I can't guarantee that Dukes will stay out of trouble or develop into a star, but you do realize that we are talking about a guy who would have been considered one of the very best prospects in baseball had it not been for the worries about his behavior. Throw in the fact that while many prospectors knew who he was a few years ago, 99% of fans will have just heard of him recently (if at all) and he's stayed out of trouble for the last season. Meanwhile his best RC Auto is $5. If you have investments that offer close to the return with this level of risk, I'd love to hear.

js0000001 · Apr 17, 2009

The three on the bottom.

2004?

nice on card autos

Kutzy · Apr 17, 2009

2003 I think

Wes · Apr 17, 2009

Topnotchsy said:
LLWesMan said:

Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Click to expand...

Would you be willing to name some?

I can't guarantee that Dukes will stay out of trouble or develop into a star, but you do realize that we are talking about a guy who would have been considered one of the very best prospects in baseball had it not been for the worries about his behavior. Throw in the fact that while many prospectors knew who he was a few years ago, 99% of fans will have just heard of him recently (if at all) and he's stayed out of trouble for the last season. Meanwhile his best RC Auto is $5. If you have investments that offer close to the return with this level of risk, I'd love to hear.

I would rather throw an equivalent amount of money at Wallace, Alonso, Laporta, either Beckham, Lars, etc. Guys who haven't reached the show yet and have no PR problems. I'd rather have 1 AU of any of those than 5 or 6 of the corresponding Dukes cards. Don't forget the factor that he plays for a terrible hobby market.

Topnotchsy · Apr 17, 2009

LLWesMan said:
Topnotchsy said:

LLWesMan said:

Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Click to expand...

Would you be willing to name some?

I can't guarantee that Dukes will stay out of trouble or develop into a star, but you do realize that we are talking about a guy who would have been considered one of the very best prospects in baseball had it not been for the worries about his behavior. Throw in the fact that while many prospectors knew who he was a few years ago, 99% of fans will have just heard of him recently (if at all) and he's stayed out of trouble for the last season. Meanwhile his best RC Auto is $5. If you have investments that offer close to the return with this level of risk, I'd love to hear.

Click to expand...

I would rather throw an equivalent amount of money at Wallace, Alonso, Laporta, either Beckham, Lars, etc. Guys who haven't reached the show yet and have no PR problems. I'd rather have 1 AU of any of those than 5 or 6 of the corresponding Dukes cards. Don't forget the factor that he plays for a terrible hobby market.

You can read my post about the markets above. I really think that people recently have been making a way bigger deal about markets than it really is (especially Washington which drew more fans than 11 teams last season.)
I honestly can not see how the potential on any of those guys (for 5x-6x the price) could be better investments. Do you think they are really 5x-6x more likely to explode?

nborton · Apr 17, 2009

Topnotchsy said:
LLWesMan said:

Topnotchsy said:

LLWesMan said:

Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Click to expand...

Would you be willing to name some?

I can't guarantee that Dukes will stay out of trouble or develop into a star, but you do realize that we are talking about a guy who would have been considered one of the very best prospects in baseball had it not been for the worries about his behavior. Throw in the fact that while many prospectors knew who he was a few years ago, 99% of fans will have just heard of him recently (if at all) and he's stayed out of trouble for the last season. Meanwhile his best RC Auto is $5. If you have investments that offer close to the return with this level of risk, I'd love to hear.

Click to expand...

I would rather throw an equivalent amount of money at Wallace, Alonso, Laporta, either Beckham, Lars, etc. Guys who haven't reached the show yet and have no PR problems. I'd rather have 1 AU of any of those than 5 or 6 of the corresponding Dukes cards. Don't forget the factor that he plays for a terrible hobby market.

Click to expand...

You can read my post about the markets above. I really think that people recently have been making a way bigger deal about markets than it really is (especially Washington which drew more fans than 11 teams last season.)
I honestly can not see how the potential on any of those guys (for 5x-6x the price) could be better investments. Do you think they are really 5x-6x more likely to explode?

I think the market has more potential than most. DC isn't a small place. It mainly has been bad so far because 1) the team is new, and 2) they haven't had a star. Ripken is one of the biggest stars out there, and he is essentially from the same place.

I guess the Ripken bit could be an argument for why the Nats aren't more popular. The Orioles might be stealing fans.

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