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Buy, Sell or Hold Stephen Strasburg?

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kobechromecom

New member
Jun 18, 2010
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Article from my site: http://KobeChrome.com


Stephen Strasburg’s first outing with the 14 K’s, 2 ER and 0 BB’s caused just about all of his cards to rise almost precisely 50% from before this game…is it time to buy, sell or hold Stephen Strasburg RC’s?

What’s so tantalizing about Stephen Strasburg is that he could be what Michael Jordan was to basketball, and in ANY GIVEN GAME he has the stuff to throw a no hitter …ala Nolan Ryan…that’s a lot of hype, but this 21 year old kid looks a lot like Nolan on the mound.

This is what is making people want to hold onto his cards..particularly his 1st Bowman Autograph currently selling for $480-$550 on Ebay. But as you all might already know there’s MUCH more product about to be released with Strasburg Autographs included…

Is the 1st Bowman Autograph going to be THE key card like Lebron James and his Exquisite 03-04 RC? The problem with Topps is that they really don’t have a high end brand…we have yet to find out however, because Strasburg himself is CREATING brands.

Topps could get lucky this year and not bomb on a Topps Paradigm-esque baseball product (Topps Paradigm Football in 2006 was Topps’ answer to Upper Deck’s Exquisite..and bombed HORRIBLY.), but how COULD they bomb? They’re the only company that can release baseball product! (That isn’t crap like Razor.)

For now the 1st Bowman Auto is the #1 card to own…prospectors love Bowman products and consider Bowman Autos #1 rookie cards..they just harken back to Albert Pujols’ Bowman Chrome Auto that is currently selling for $2000-$2500 on Ebay. The future is up in the air if this holds up…

The most conservative thing to do is this…just don’t buy a damn thing until the season ends…find out what his best card will end up being, wait for the off-season dip. Buying off-season dips is a very strong strategy when it comes to speculating on sports cards..it’s worked for me for well over 13 years for me and my speculating habits. OR Strasburg gets injured and his cards take a dive…and buy in. But with pitchers, it could the very injury that turns a super prospect into a Cubs flame out ala Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.

What would I do? I’m thinking LEBRON. Lebron James. In 03-04 I did pretty well investing in his cards, like most people…his stuff just went UP. PERIOD. People thought when 03-04 Exquisite came out that that was the very peak of his RC’s. Like $1500 was as high as it was going to go. Nope. in 2-3 years the card rocketed to $15,000.00-$16,000.00. If you have the balls, I’d buy his 1st Bowman Auto NOW and hold until at least the All-Star Break…..”Sell At The All-Star Break” is a good selling strategy. Remember Josh Hamilton? All those HR’s he hit in the derby that year…his cards literally quadrupled on Ebay and Thepit.com. That’s what I would do…pile into that Bowman Auto like there’s no tomorrow and sell at the Break. Or if you have more guts, sell at the very end of the season..

That’s what I would do.

gem-x
 

kobechromecom

New member
Jun 18, 2010
200
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I've opened way too much 2010 Bowman and own just a handful of not so significant Strasburgs..mostly because there aren't that many significant Strasburgs..I do have a $200 BGS 9.5 Strasburg UD USA #21, but it's not an auto...
You're right to say you won't see them again (The auto's) and I agree.
 

coltsnsox07

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Aug 19, 2008
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I honestly was relieved to sell my orange auto for $3500, I personally think thats way too much and couldn't wait to get it off my hands! He has so many autos coming out in the next couple months, after he gets shut down for the season his prices will cool off too.
 

kobechromecom

New member
Jun 18, 2010
200
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I remember seeing $4400 for those oranges lol I know it's insane...but so was was Lebron stuff when he came out..
 

matfanofold

Active member
Aug 10, 2008
7,645
1
High end, low numbered paralells = Sell.

Base Auto's = Hold.

Base cards = Buy.


This is what I would do.
 

kobechromecom

New member
Jun 18, 2010
200
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Yeah the rare stuff is realllly high right now...but again, so was Lebron's stuff.
We though back in 2004 that the Exquisite was overpriced at $1500.00 lol
 

rico08

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
3,219
0
Los Angeles
I would absolutely sell anything 2010 Bowman related in anticipation of the rest of Topps' 2010 product calendar. Strasburg is slated to appear in every Topps product and each new release will take away steam from the previous release. Many have predicted the late street date for Topps Chrome will hurt the overall product but I disagree.
 

Anthony K.

New member
Aug 7, 2008
5,031
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Enterprise, Alabama
rico08 said:
I would absolutely sell anything 2010 Bowman related in anticipation of the rest of Topps' 2010 product calendar. Strasburg is slated to appear in every Topps product and each new release will take away steam from the previous release. Many have predicted the late street date for Topps Chrome will hurt the overall product but I disagree.

I agree with this.

Once Bowman Chrome is out, his Bowman stuff will hit much, MUCH lower prices then they are now. Primarily because his BC stuff is going to be auto'ed.

Ya know, like his soon to be most expensive card, the 2010 BC Superfractor auto.
 

cgilmo

Well-known member
Administrator
Aug 6, 2008
37,213
35
Alpharetta, Georgia, United States
Anthony K. said:
rico08 said:
I would absolutely sell anything 2010 Bowman related in anticipation of the rest of Topps' 2010 product calendar. Strasburg is slated to appear in every Topps product and each new release will take away steam from the previous release. Many have predicted the late street date for Topps Chrome will hurt the overall product but I disagree.

I agree with this.

Once Bowman Chrome is out, his Bowman stuff will hit much, MUCH lower prices then they are now. Primarily because his BC stuff is going to be auto'ed.

Ya know, like his soon to be most expensive card, the 2010 BC Superfractor auto.


topps chrome will dent it first


I don't see the A&G making much of an impact other than being ungodly expensive.
 

bmc398

New member
May 25, 2009
2,312
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cgilmo said:
Anthony K. said:
rico08 said:
I would absolutely sell anything 2010 Bowman related in anticipation of the rest of Topps' 2010 product calendar. Strasburg is slated to appear in every Topps product and each new release will take away steam from the previous release. Many have predicted the late street date for Topps Chrome will hurt the overall product but I disagree.

I agree with this.

Once Bowman Chrome is out, his Bowman stuff will hit much, MUCH lower prices then they are now. Primarily because his BC stuff is going to be auto'ed.

Ya know, like his soon to be most expensive card, the 2010 BC Superfractor auto.


topps chrome will dent it first


I don't see the A&G making much of an impact other than being ungodly expensive.

Agreed. The A&G auto will be Sp'ed enough that the high prices will continue. The Stras mini falling at like 1 in 18 boxes is another thing that will keep prices up.

When Topps Chrome comes out, im sure Stras will be an SP auto but he will surely have a base card, which will dent the sales of his previous cards since there will be so many. So high prices all summer long!
 

rico08

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
3,219
0
Los Angeles
jeredweaverfan said:
Yeah, definitely wait until the off-season to see if his stuff implodes from the product overload.

I don't think his stuff implodes, necessarily. And product overload is a bit of an exaggeration.

We're talking about a "once in a generation" pitcher with the moxy to stand tall in the spotlight who'll have rookie cards issued in a relatively thin product year. Still, I think 2010 Chrome (non autograph) rookies settle to $15-25, which is why I'm selling now at $35+.
 

bmc398

New member
May 25, 2009
2,312
0
rico08 said:
jeredweaverfan said:
Yeah, definitely wait until the off-season to see if his stuff implodes from the product overload.

I don't think his stuff implodes, necessarily. And product overload is a bit of an exaggeration.

We're talking about a "once in a generation" pitcher with the moxy to stand tall in the spotlight who'll have rookie cards issued in a relatively thin product year. Still, I think 2010 Chrome (non autograph) rookies settle to $15-25, which is why I'm selling now at $35+.
Yeah, I don't see an imposion, but chromes will never sell at less than $20.....at least not if he continues to do at least respectably well.
 

rico08

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
3,219
0
Los Angeles
bmc398 said:
rico08 said:
jeredweaverfan said:
Yeah, definitely wait until the off-season to see if his stuff implodes from the product overload.

I don't think his stuff implodes, necessarily. And product overload is a bit of an exaggeration.

We're talking about a "once in a generation" pitcher with the moxy to stand tall in the spotlight who'll have rookie cards issued in a relatively thin product year. Still, I think 2010 Chrome (non autograph) rookies settle to $15-25, which is why I'm selling now at $35+.
Yeah, I don't see an imposion, but chromes will never sell at less than $20.....at least not if he continues to do at least respectably well.

Players who perform respectively well don't have base Chrome cards that sell for $15 or even $5. Strasburg needs to be a top 10 (or better) pitcher for prices to be sustained in the $20+ range.
 

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