Are Justin Upton 2006 Bowman Chrome Auto's cheap to buy?

An article from my site: http://kobechrome.com


Justin Upton...loved by "prospectors" for years since he got drafted is currently batting .247 with 11 HR's 34 RBI's and 10 SB's...this translates into a 26-28 HR, 90-95 RBI, 23-25 SB year (not including batting average). Last year he had a breakout year batting over .300 and joining the 20/20 club with 26 HR's and 20 SB's...

But, from personal experience buying his 2006 Bowman Chrome Auto RC last year...they BARELY moved in price. He had a big breakout year yet they sat there on Ebay for $70-$75 each. The peak was $180-$200 when he came out blazing in the beginning of the 2008 season (only to slump horribly as the season progressed and ended).

The beginning of this year, they spiked a little up to $90 a piece, but a couple months ago, the slump began...he's currently leading at least the NL in strikeouts (suprisingly with Mark Reynolds in the same team and league) and is batting .247...his cards have dipped below the major support level around $75 down to around $65 a piece....

The question is...now that they're this cheap, as it worth the risk to see if he starts batting as well as he did last year? I would actually prefer to wait until they either dip down to the low $50's or until after the season ends...and maybe wait for a better year next year...it's worth waiting on him because not only is the potential there, he's still ONLY 22 years old...

But he has a lot of negatives going for him...the main negatives are his strikeout totals and the Diamondbacks' lack of confidence in him...the D'backs have tossed him down to as low as the 7th slot on the lineup, and that will greatly effect his RBI totals...the actual act of placing him that low has really pissed off Upton...I don't think that'll help his confidence...the second main negative is the team. They stink. Last place and that won't give him any national media attention.

What would I do? I'd wait until it gets REAL bad and his cards dip into the low $50's and buy them up...not fully leveraged but a speculative position....or wait until the season ends when cards typically dip, and hope he picks it up next year...he'll be 23, and that's essentially where the line is drawn age-wise for hobby love.

-gem-x

I think he's a good buy. He had a good week last wek. I think his average ends over .275

who was the guy who said he would eat his own fist if justin upton was not a triple crown canidate by 2009

He turned it around last year, around this time of the season...they're kinda hard to buy on ebay because everybody has a huge BIN price and are expecting way too much from these cards...there were only a couple that i saw sell in an actual auction for around $65 a piece..

Obviously, any kind of prospect/RC hype is over. And I just do not see a ~.270 hitter with a possible ~25 HR's and 90'RBI's season getting people to drool over him. Unless he can get to ~.300 , 30+, 90+ and his share of SB's consistantly for the next few years, real value will not come.

matfanofold said:

Obviously, any kind of prospect/RC hype is over. And I just do not see a ~.270 hitter with a possible ~25 HR's and 90'RBI's season getting people to drool over him. Unless he can get to ~.300 , 30+, 90+ and his share of SB's consistantly for the next few years, real value will not come.

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why wouldn't that happen? He is 22.

Yes

Upton is a guy who scouts and people around baseball seem absolutely convinced will be an absolute superstar. This means that when he does well, people take note pretty quickly as they assume it is a harbinger of future performance. If you accept the opinion of scouts and the like, $75 (which is around what most auctions seem to get dlvd) can provide great returns. At the same time $75 is a lot to spend on a guy playing in Arizona who does not have the advantage of the attention a player in the Minors gets.

For me, I'm leaning towards buying as the talent level (based on the scouting reports) is just so high.

And thats the reason why if anyone just saw that mammoth center field home-run. As for the market, if you are good enough your cards almost always follow suit. A few times there are injustices, but most of the time if you preform your cards will follow along. If he becomes the best player in the game (which he could be in the next 2-3 years) it wont matter that he plays in AZ

"It won't be long before Justin Upton is the best baseball player in the world." -Mike Marinaro, June 21, 2010

yup only 22

2 HR's 4 RBI 3-3 tonite wow

card-treasury said:

"It won't be long before Justin Upton is the best baseball player in the world." -Mike Marinaro, June 21, 2010

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I'll file this away with "Evan Longoria will hit 40 homers in 2009" and "Homer Bailey will become a superstar" in my Retarded And Incorrect Card-treasury Predictions collection.

Now batting .272 with 14 HR's ..rock n roll

He reminds me of alot of Andruw Jones when he was young but missing the stellar defense and popular team. Andruw was a surefire 1st ballot HOF'er until he turned 30. I hope Justin ages better than him.