One thing I find somewhat strange about pitching prospects

MallCopKJ · Jan 2, 2009

Kind of bored so I figured I would get some feedback on peoples thoughts on this and see if anyone else feels the same. It seems to be pretty much a fact that prospect cards sell the highest for players in big markets. So, heres where that confuses me. I will use the Red Sox as an example. I remember when people were very high on clay Buchholz and he was considered one of the top prospects in the minor leagues. A lot of people viewed him as a top of the rotation talent, and for a short time he even showed that with the Red Sox. Well, big market teams usually go after the top free agents correct? With that in mind where would a guy like Buchholz fit in? Looking at their current rotation, if Buchholz was pitching like an ace right now he would still only be the 4th starter at best right? Their rotation would most likely be Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield even if Buchholz was pitching as good as everyone projected him to be. Would that not hurt his value? I thought of this because I think about a guy like Lincecum pitching for the Giants. You know that if he paned out he was going to be the #1 guy. If the Red Sox had Tim Lincecum, where would he fit into the rotation? #3? How much money do #3 pitchers sell for? Anither guy is Phil Hughes. People project him to have #1 stuff, but where does he fit in on a team that has proven talent? Would you pay $1,000 for a gold ref auto of most teams #4 pitcher? Even if a guy like Hughes proved himself and showed you great things in New York, will he ever start ahead of Sabathia or Burnett? Im having a little bit of a hard time seeing how pitching prospects would be a good investment as far as their spot on a big market team. It seems like everytime a guy does really well for a lower market team, people talk about how much his cards would be worth on a team like the Yankees or Red Sox. To me, as good as a young pitcher is, how often would he get a chance to be the #1 on a big market team? I would like to see someone give an example of a rookie for a big market team, who came up with that team and was an ace. Just seems to me like a guy on a bad team would be a better investment before a guy on a bigger team because you figure eventually hes going to leave and end up with a better team. Your thoughts?

AKA Coastal · Jan 2, 2009

Maybe once their career plays out they've reached that level? I see what your saying though.

schlongky · Jan 2, 2009

I think the hope is that said prospect turns into Sabathia, Burnett, etc... Also, if Lincecum or whomever was putting up the same stats as the Yanks #4 I think his cards would sell for more than if he were still SF's "ace". Just my .02

xcantgobackx · Jan 2, 2009

I don't think a pitchers position in the rotation would dictate prices/popularity as much as their performance. Rotations are set out of Spring Training and going into the playoffs. But a playoff rotation can be different than the regular season rotation. For example, let's say Buchholz does make the Red Sox rotation out of Spring Training and gets set as the number 4 starter. Let's say that by June, Beckett is 4-5 with a 4.27 ERA, Matsuzaka is 7-4 with a 3.57, Lester is 6-4 3.77 ERA and Buchholz is 9-1 with a 2.89 ERA. His prices are going to go up and although he's technically the Number 4 starter, he's be the best starter at that point. Thats why rotation slots mean little after the first week aside from the playoffs. Days off and injuries cause for many rotations changes as well.

predatorkj · Jan 2, 2009

Yeah...I just don't see the rotation spot as mattering much when it comes to price.

bballcardkid · Jan 2, 2009

I don't think the position in the rotation matters at all if the guy is producing. Secondly, I would hope that I would have dumped said prospects card at least 3 months after he cracks the bigs, cause they usually don't appreciate

MallCopKJ · Jan 3, 2009

I know what you guys mean in that as long as a guy produces people would buy. What I was trying to figure out though is how many guys are a teams #4 and sell as well as a #1 guy? Look at Jon Lester. Hes been amazing since hes been in the Majors and his gold refs were going for like $200-$300 during the season. If he was on another team he would be a #1, his cards would sell for a lot more and everyone would say "imagine how much his cards would be on the Red Sox or Yankees". But, with the Red Sox hes "only" their #3 starter and I had the impression that the "ace: factor, or lack of being an "ace" played a big part in that.

predatorkj · Jan 4, 2009

MallCopKJ said:
I know what you guys mean in that as long as a guy produces people would buy. What I was trying to figure out though is how many guys are a teams #4 and sell as well as a #1 guy? Look at Jon Lester. Hes been amazing since hes been in the Majors and his gold refs were going for like $200-$300 during the season. If he was on another team he would be a #1, his cards would sell for a lot more and everyone would say "imagine how much his cards would be on the Red Sox or Yankees". But, with the Red Sox hes "only" their #3 starter and I had the impression that the "ace: factor, or lack of being an "ace" played a big part in that.

I can see where your going with that.

I think a lot of Boston collectors have too many pitchers to choose from.Curt Schilling(used to anyway), Josh Beckett, Dice K and then Lester.Thats a lot of money to spread.But...there is a ceiling one way or the other and when your on a loaded heavy contender team...there is always a chance your not going to worth as much ,card wise anyway, as you would be if there was a lack of good pitching on the roster.If he played for the yanks or even the mets he might have had more accomodation this way.

fengzhang · Jan 4, 2009

MallCopKJ said:
Kind of bored so I figured I would get some feedback on peoples thoughts on this and see if anyone else feels the same. It seems to be pretty much a fact that prospect cards sell the highest for players in big markets. So, heres where that confuses me. I will use the Red Sox as an example. I remember when people were very high on clay Buchholz and he was considered one of the top prospects in the minor leagues. A lot of people viewed him as a top of the rotation talent, and for a short time he even showed that with the Red Sox. Well, big market teams usually go after the top free agents correct? With that in mind where would a guy like Buchholz fit in? Looking at their current rotation, if Buchholz was pitching like an ace right now he would still only be the 4th starter at best right? Their rotation would most likely be Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield even if Buchholz was pitching as good as everyone projected him to be. Would that not hurt his value? I thought of this because I think about a guy like Lincecum pitching for the Giants. You know that if he paned out he was going to be the #1 guy. If the Red Sox had Tim Lincecum, where would he fit into the rotation? #3? How much money do #3 pitchers sell for? Anither guy is Phil Hughes. People project him to have #1 stuff, but where does he fit in on a team that has proven talent? Would you pay $1,000 for a gold ref auto of most teams #4 pitcher? Even if a guy like Hughes proved himself and showed you great things in New York, will he ever start ahead of Sabathia or Burnett? Im having a little bit of a hard time seeing how pitching prospects would be a good investment as far as their spot on a big market team. It seems like everytime a guy does really well for a lower market team, people talk about how much his cards would be worth on a team like the Yankees or Red Sox. To me, as good as a young pitcher is, how often would he get a chance to be the #1 on a big market team? I would like to see someone give an example of a rookie for a big market team, who came up with that team and was an ace. Just seems to me like a guy on a bad team would be a better investment before a guy on a bigger team because you figure eventually hes going to leave and end up with a better team. Your thoughts?

A couple of things:
1. First of all, what does #3 starter even mean? It doesn't impact your stats at all. This is not like in the NBA where if you're the #3 option on a team (even if you're a great offensive player), you'll still only get 10 shots a game. So, what if you're stuck as the #3 starter on a very good rotation? You can still go 20-3 with a 2.54 ERA. There's nothing stopping you.

2. Since we're past their initial RC boom, to get their RC's back up to the previous values, they need to do something amazing. Going 12-10 with a 4.10 ERA is nice but not sufficient to raise their card prices. They'll need some sort of year like 17-8 with a 3.20 ERA. And if they get that kind of number, they WILL be in the playoff rotation. Beckett, Daisuke, Wakefield, and Lester are not all going to put up huge numbers every single year. And the Yankees pitching is even more suspect. If Hughes gets 17 wins and a 3.20 ERA, he's going to be the top or second best pitcher in NY this year. Sorry, but I'm not seeing those numbers out of Burnett ( :lol: ) or **** this year.

In other words, people collect based on their stats, not where they are on the depth chart. I don't see too many people collecting Vincente Padilla. Before someone brings up John Lester's name one more time wondering why his cards sold for so low, he's had one good year. He was steady the entire year. He didn't start out on fire like Webb or Volquez or Cliff Lee did and hence did not receive the notice from the rest of the baseball world. Give it time. If he repeats this year's performance, his cards will go up.

Mudcatsfan · Jan 4, 2009

MallCopKJ said:
I know what you guys mean in that as long as a guy produces people would buy. What I was trying to figure out though is how many guys are a teams #4 and sell as well as a #1 guy? Look at Jon Lester. Hes been amazing since hes been in the Majors and his gold refs were going for like $200-$300 during the season. If he was on another team he would be a #1, his cards would sell for a lot more and everyone would say "imagine how much his cards would be on the Red Sox or Yankees". But, with the Red Sox hes "only" their #3 starter and I had the impression that the "ace: factor, or lack of being an "ace" played a big part in that.

I don't think anyone says, yeah but he's only their #3 pitcher i don't want his cards.

There are 2 times during the season that your place in the rotation matters. First week and starting the playoffs.

most people don't even know where in a rotation pitchers on other teams throw.

The reason you don't see #3 and #4 starters with high card values is that #3 and #4 starters typically suck.

If you're good, your cards will sell well irrespective of your place in the rotation.

Also, odds are if you're pitching well enough to get noticed, you'll move up in the rotation, because the odds of all the pitchers in front of you still pitching better than you isn't very high.

AKA Coastal · Jan 4, 2009

Mudcatsfan said:
MallCopKJ said:

I know what you guys mean in that as long as a guy produces people would buy. What I was trying to figure out though is how many guys are a teams #4 and sell as well as a #1 guy? Look at Jon Lester. Hes been amazing since hes been in the Majors and his gold refs were going for like $200-$300 during the season. If he was on another team he would be a #1, his cards would sell for a lot more and everyone would say "imagine how much his cards would be on the Red Sox or Yankees". But, with the Red Sox hes "only" their #3 starter and I had the impression that the "ace: factor, or lack of being an "ace" played a big part in that.

Click to expand...

I don't think anyone says, yeah but he's only their #3 pitcher i don't want his cards.

There are 2 times during the season that your place in the rotation matters. First week and starting the playoffs.

most people don't even know where in a rotation pitchers on other teams throw.

The reason you don't see #3 and #4 starters with high card values is that #3 and #4 starters typically suck.

If you're good, your cards will sell well irrespective of your place in the rotation.

Also, odds are if you're pitching well enough to get noticed, you'll move up in the rotation, because the odds of all the pitchers in front of you still pitching better than you isn't very high.

Agree. I couldn't tell you where most pitchers are in the rotations unless they are the ace.

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One thing I find somewhat strange about pitching prospects

MallCopKJ

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AKA Coastal

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schlongky

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predatorkj

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