Adam Dunn might hit 600 HR, would he make the HOF?

[Sly]

LOL what an asinine statement

How so? You've done nothing to prove that other than walks and HR's, he would be a HOFer. Let's look at his stuff:

Career Avg. w/ 2 outs and RISP - .203 (Reggie .253, Thome .256)
Never finished in the Top 20 in MVP voting (Reggie did it 12x, Thome did it 8x)
Never led the league in HR's OR RBI (Reggie and Thome both have)
Led the league only ONCE in walks (Thome 3x)
Finished in the Top 10 in Slugging only twice (Reggie did it 12x, Thome did it 10x)
Finished in the Top 10 in OBP only twice (Reggie did it 5x, Thome did it 10x)

What's asinine is anyone in this thread comparing Dunn as the same type of hitter as Reggie or Thome. Both Reggie and Thome have more than "hits and walks". Dunn doesn't. As I said in my first post, to get in the HOFer based on one thing, you better be one of the best of all time in that category (ie. Ozzie). Dunn is an excellent HR hitter ... that's it. He's not far and above better than anyone else.

 

[Sly]

I think it was Killebrew.

As for Ozzie, he had one of the best gloves for his position. Dunn might end up having one of the worst of his. Therefore he has to do so much more with the bat to have a chance. HRs alone are not going to cut it.

Yes it was. Killebrew's career average was .256.

As for Ozzie, he also had 214 career Sacrifice Hits ... So let's not forget that those Sacrifices count AGAINST one's BA. Any guess how many active players have more than 100 sacrifices?? FIVE ... and two of them are pitchers, and another is a SS who is 24 years into his career.

So again, while Ozzie's average may have sucked, he had more than just that.

 

[markakis8]

Markakis - Essentially it comes down to if Dunn reaches said milestone he is a HOFer. Is that # only 600HRs? what if he only makes it to 500HRs? Would he still be a HOFer in your eyes? What is the tipping point for the HOF bid?

Again, I'm not really here to argue FOR Dunn. I'm more arguing the #600. Anybody that hits 600 HR is going to be in the HOF. It's that simple for me to grasp.

 

[markakis8]

Yes it was. Killebrew's career average was .256.

As for Ozzie, he also had 214 career Sacrifice Hits ... So let's not forget that those Sacrifices count AGAINST one's BA. Any guess how many active players have more than 100 sacrifices?? FIVE ... and two of them are pitchers, and another is a SS who is 24 years into his career.

So again, while Ozzie's average may have sucked, he had more than just that.

No they don't a sacrifice bunt or fly doesn't not count against your BA b/c it's not an official at bat. I do know a SF hurts your OBP though.

 

[markakis8]

How so? You've done nothing to prove that other than walks and HR's, he would be a HOFer. Let's look at his stuff:

Career Avg. w/ 2 outs and RISP - .203 (Reggie .253, Thome .256)
Never finished in the Top 20 in MVP voting (Reggie did it 12x, Thome did it 8x)
Never led the league in HR's OR RBI (Reggie and Thome both have)
Led the league only ONCE in walks (Thome 3x)
Finished in the Top 10 in Slugging only twice (Reggie did it 12x, Thome did it 10x)
Finished in the Top 10 in OBP only twice (Reggie did it 5x, Thome did it 10x)

What's asinine is anyone in this thread comparing Dunn as the same type of hitter as Reggie or Thome. Both Reggie and Thome have more than "hits and walks". Dunn doesn't. As I said in my first post, to get in the HOFer based on one thing, you better be one of the best of all time in that category (ie. Ozzie). Dunn is an excellent HR hitter ... that's it. He's not far and above better than anyone else.

You don't think it's asinine to say "it doesn't matter how many home runs he hits, he won't make the HOF?"

What if he hits 800? LOL, is he a HOF then?

 

[Sly]

You don't think it's asinine to say "it doesn't matter how many home runs he hits, he won't make the HOF?"

What if he hits 800? LOL, is he a HOF then?

Well, if he hits 800, he is far and above the best HR hitter ever. If he hits 600, he's not.

 

[Sly]

No they don't a sacrifice bunt or fly doesn't not count against your BA b/c it's not an official at bat. I do know a SF hurts your OBP though.

You're right, my mistake. I was thinking Fielder's Choice where it does.

Point still being that Ozzie's average may have sucked, he did what he needed to do as a #2 hitter, get runners over, and people don't bother to consider that.

 

[scotty216brs]

Yes it was. Killebrew's career average was .256.

As for Ozzie, he also had 214 career Sacrifice Hits ... So let's not forget that those Sacrifices count AGAINST one's BA. Any guess how many active players have more than 100 sacrifices?? FIVE ... and two of them are pitchers, and another is a SS who is 24 years into his career.

So again, while Ozzie's average may have sucked, he had more than just that.

Now you got me curious....who are the two pitchers?



It's funny to see all those who use Ozzie as a reason as to why hitters with low BA should make the HOF....Ozzie *mainly* got in for his glove but was a productive hitter as well. He rarely struck out [once every 16 ABs] and when he did get on base via a single or a walk he was a threat to steal.

Every player can hit HRs nowadays, it takes a lot more than that to make it in the HOF. You have to be the best hitter of your era, or win a couple MVPs or something to have a shot. 52 players have more HR than Dunn, should they all be HOFers as well?

 

[markakis8]

Every player can hit HRs nowadays, it takes a lot more than that to make it in the HOF. You have to be the best hitter of your era, or win a couple MVPs or something to have a shot. 52 players have more HR than Dunn, should they all be HOFers as well?

Scotty that wasn't the question though. If Dunn gets to 600 HR, is he a HOF? 52 players won't have more HR than Dunn if he gets to 600. So that point is irrelevant.

 

[scotty216brs]

You don't think it's asinine to say "it doesn't matter how many home runs he hits, he won't make the HOF?"

What if he hits 800? LOL, is he a HOF then?

If he hits 800 HRs he will have more strikeouts than Nolan Ryan.


600 HRs is reachable for him, but definitely not guaranteed. I mean, is he going to have full playing time if his BA and strikeout rate actually get worse with age? It's something to thing about...

 

[Sly]

Now you got me curious....who are the two pitchers?

It's funny to see all those who use Ozzie as a reason as to why hitters with low BA should make the HOF....Ozzie *mainly* got in for his glove but was a productive hitter as well. He rarely struck out [once every 16 ABs] and when he did get on base via a single or a walk he was a threat to steal.

Every player can hit HRs nowadays, it takes a lot more than that to make it in the HOF. You have to be the best hitter of your era, or win a couple MVPs or something to have a shot. 52 players have more HR than Dunn, should they all be HOFers as well?

Here are the five over 100:

[TABLE="class: float_left stats_table nav_table"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1.
[/TD]
[TD]Omar Vizquel (24, 45)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]256[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]B[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2.
[/TD]
[TD]Juan Pierre (13, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3.
[/TD]
[TD]Livan Hernandez (17, 37)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4.
[/TD]
[TD]Roy Oswalt (12, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: hl"]
[TD="align: right"]5.
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Wilson (12, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]104[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[HPC]

Scotty that wasn't the question though. If Dunn gets to 600 HR, is he a HOF? 52 players won't have more HR than Dunn if he gets to 600. So that point is irrelevant.

Dunn has done nothing else that is HOF worthy except hit homeruns

The people who keep arguing that 500hr, 3000 hits, and 3000ks are automatic locks of a Hall of Famer are like people who still use book value for their cards: they cant/dont want to believe that times have and are changing

 

[scotty216brs]

Scotty that wasn't the question though. If Dunn gets to 600 HR, is he a HOF? 52 players won't have more HR than Dunn if he gets to 600. So that point is irrelevant.

I say no and that's because he doesn't have any MVPs, and was never considered one of the better hitters in the league. Keep in mind he plays in an era where 30+ HRs are a dime a dozen. For a HOF bid, you have to stand out. Adam Dunn stands out for all the wrong reasons.

 

[scotty216brs]

Here are the five over 100:

[TABLE="class: float_left stats_table nav_table"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1.[/TD]
[TD]Omar Vizquel (24, 45)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]256[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]B[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2.[/TD]
[TD]Juan Pierre (13, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]150[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]3.[/TD]
[TD]Livan Hernandez (17, 37)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]4.[/TD]
[TD]Roy Oswalt (12, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: hl"]
[TD="align: right"]5.[/TD]
[TD]Jack Wilson (12, 34)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]104[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]R[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Would have never guessed Oswalt! Very interesting...

 

[markakis8]

Dunn has done nothing else that is HOF worthy except hit homeruns

The people who keep arguing that 500hr, 3000 hits, and 3000ks are automatic locks of a Hall of Famer are like people who still use book value for their cards: they cant/dont want to believe that times have and are changing

but we aren't talking about 500 HR, we are talking about 600 HR.

And BV is the most irrelevant term in our hobby, I'll agree with you there.

edit to add: 3,000 hits is a guarantee lock that you are getting in the HOF. Not sure how it isn't.

 

[matfanofold]

As always, popularity plays a role in any HOF voting process, and while Dunn is a liked (and likable) player, I just do not think he has yet to achieve the popularity needed. As (and if) he continues rack up home runs as suggested in the op, his popularity and exposure should grow. 500 may not do it for him, but 600 will surely have him in the news quite often and perhaps gain the popularity he needs. In the end, 600 home runs is a undeniable statistic and consideration will be given.

 

[markakis8]

I say no and that's because he doesn't have any MVPs, and was never considered one of the better hitters in the league. Keep in mind he plays in an era where 30+ HRs are a dime a dozen. For a HOF bid, you have to stand out. Adam Dunn stands out for all the wrong reasons.

600 HR stands out to me. B/c only 8 people have done it. And it's possible by the time Dunn reaches 600, only 10 players in the history of the game will have 600 (I'm assuming Pujols gets to 600 as well)

 

[scotty216brs]

600 HR stands out to me. B/c only 8 people have done it. And it's possible by the time Dunn reaches 600, only 10 players in the history of the game will have 600 (I'm assuming Pujols gets to 600 as well)

Yes, but all those players have done much more than hit HRs. The exception is Sammy Sosa, and he might never make the HOF....and he actually won an MVP!

 

[Sly]

600 HR stands out to me. B/c only 8 people have done it. And it's possible by the time Dunn reaches 600, only 10 players in the history of the game will have 600 (I'm assuming Pujols gets to 600 as well)

But all of those potential 9 others, have so much more on their resume's than just HR's and Walks. Even if he hit 600 HR's, can you really put him on par in a class of Bonds, Ruth, Aaron, Griffey, Mays, Pujols, Rodriguez, Sosa, and Thome?? To me, even with 600 HR's, Dunn is not in a class with any of those guys as a player.

 

[HPC]

but we aren't talking about 500 HR, we are talking about 600 HR.

And BV is the most irrelevant term in our hobby, I'll agree with you there.

edit to add: 3,000 hits is a guarantee lock that you are getting in the HOF. Not sure how it isn't.

Juan Pierre would not and should not be a hall of famer even if he somehow managed to get 3000.

Hed be in the same category as Dunn: hung around long enough while being mediocre to reach a milestone. No major awards, not alot of all stars, never or rarely led the league in anything, etc.

Im not understating the achievement of 600 homeruns, but you also have to realize that voters habits have changed. Its not as cut and dry as it was in the 70s and 80s. With the advent of sabermetrics and higher importance placed in other statistical categories, guys like Dunn will be on the outside looking in