HOF discussion: Andruw Jones

[pigskincardboard]

Wow.

Let's not diss Andruw's gold gloves here people. Do people not remember how well he played CF?

UZR only goes back to 2002, and it's generally all over the place, but I'm pretty sure this is greatness:

2002: 15.5 (2nd CF, 6th overall)
2003: 17.5 (3rd CF, 6th overall)
2004: 24.2 (2nd overall, 2nd CF -- patterson)
2005: 26.1 (1st Overall, not just CF)
2006: 13.0 (4th behind Tavares, Patterson and Pierre)
2007: 23.2 (2nd behind Coco)

The Gold gloves from '98 to 2001 were probably his best defensive years. You can bust on him all you want, but I promise you, his gold gloves are ABSOLUTELY legitimate. Go ahead and use any metric you'd like or just the eye-test, he was amongst the best in baseball.

If you want to discredit his defense, you're basically admitting ignorance.

We know that UZR isn't the perfect metric, but that level of sustained greatness can't simply be ignored.

There are more than a handful "defensive wizards" in the hall of fame that SEVERELY LACK the offensive numbers to make the hall, but are in anyways. Why does a modern day "defensive wiz" with LEGIT offensive numbers have "no shot"

skrip

I completely agree with you. His defensive numbers ALONE, should put him in the talk for HOF.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... n=OF#value

That excludes 98 to 2001-- arguably his most impressive seasons, other than the 51HR campaign.

 

[ballerskrip]

Andruw regressed tremendously and while he is showing life this year, to project 5 more years of anything above average is extremely bold. Even expecting him to be "average" for an MLB outfielder at this point is a bold prediction.

And the Ozzie Smith discussions need to end. Smith epitomized "fame" when it comes to baseball discussion and was without a question a national star for his entire career. He was bigger than the game...Jones has never been that guy outside of maybe 2005 and some highlight reel SportsCenter catches.

So because Ozzie was famous means he should be in the hall of fame? I REALLY hope you have a better argument than that. That is like saying Anna Kournikova is the best womens tennis player of all time beause she was the most famous for 10 years.....Come on bud.

 

[hive17]

I am not sure how a player who is one of the best defensive center fielders of all time, along with hitting 400 homeruns isn't a SLAM DUNK candidate.

Get over the Steroid era people, they don't all need to be 500, .330 avg players to make the hall.

skrip

He's not all-time. He was great in his time, but arguable as to who the best every year he played.

Also, right, wrong or indifferent, his fall-off is too suspect in it's immediate co-existance with PED testing. I'm not saying he did anything of the sort, but he dropped off at the worst time. Basically, it begs the question, why did he all of a sudden get worse, what changed?

 

[Sly]

Andruw regressed tremendously and while he is showing life this year, to project 5 more years of anything above average is extremely bold. Even expecting him to be "average" for an MLB outfielder at this point is a bold prediction.

And the Ozzie Smith discussions need to end. Smith epitomized "fame" when it comes to baseball discussion and was without a question a national star for his entire career. He was bigger than the game...Jones has never been that guy outside of maybe 2005 and some highlight reel SportsCenter catches.

So because Ozzie was famous means he should be in the hall of fame? I REALLY hope you have a better argument than that. That is like saying Anna Kournikova is the best womens tennis player of all time beause she was the most famous for 10 years.....Come on bud.

Ozzie Smith is arguably the GREATEST defensive Shortstop (possibly even INFIELDER) to EVER play the game. Andruw Jones is far from "the greatest" to ever play his position in ANY sense (offensive or defensive). And Gold Gloves did mean more in Ozzie's days, because they weren't given to the guy who was plastered all over ESPN and Baseball Tonights "Web Gems".

Hell for as much as you want to rip on Ozzie's bat...guess who's got a higher career batting average...Ozzie or Andruw?? But of course, Ozzie didn't hit Home Runs, so DAMN HIM!!!!

 

[Vagrant]

He almost has a shot on his glove alone. 10 consecutive gold gloves is nothing to sneeze at and is a feat that has only been accomplished by a handful of players at his position. That's without even talking about home runs. That's without talking about All Star games. Without the RBI totals.

He's a lock, IMO. Had he sold out of his power for contact he would be remembered much more fondly, but he's a free swinging power hitter and was a good one in his time.

On his bat alone? Not a chance. On his offensive numbers together with his glove work? Sold.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Why do people keep saying "Andruw Jones, ESPN, OMFG Web GEMS."

How is anyone supposed to argue with that? I just posted the best (eh...most widely used) defensive metric that we have. Andruw Jones DESTROYS the competition. The numbers aren't even close, guys.

Prior to web-gems and the internet, players were much more likely to get a defensive award based solely on word of mouth. Personally, I'll always take more information over less information.

Andruw Jones is one of, if not the best, defensive center-fielders of all time (over a 10-12 year span)

 

[markakis8]

You, my friend, have hit the nail on the head.

I'm not sure if Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, and Alex Rodriguez have just clouded everyone's judgment the past 10 years but with Andruw Jones defense and power, he WILL be a lock for the HOF if he gets to 500 HR.

Will he be first-ballot? Probably not, his average does hurt a bit, but Ozzie Smith was a career .262 hitter...4 measly points higher than Andruw Jones. And Andruw will ONLY have 450 more homers than Ozzie when his career is over.

Then I think you better petition to get Ozzie Smith out of the Hall of fame. Andruw Jones was every bit as good in centerfield as Ozzie was at Shortstop and we all know that ozzie was a TERRIBLE hitter. Okay, not terrible, but his bat had nothing to do with his hall of fame standing.

Why does a player have to get to 500 homeruns or 3000 hits to make the hall? Are you guys nuts? What % of players in the hall of fame are NOT in one of these clubs? 75%? 85%?

I am not sure how a player who is one of the best defensive center fielders of all time, along with hitting 400 homeruns isn't a SLAM DUNK candidate.

Get over the Steroid era people, they don't all need to be 500, .330 avg players to make the hall.

skrip

 

[Sly]

Why do people keep saying "Andruw Jones, ESPN, OMFG Web GEMS."

How is anyone supposed to argue with that? I just posted the best (eh...most widely used) defensive metric that we have. Andruw Jones DESTROYS the competition. The numbers aren't even close, guys.

Prior to web-gems and the internet, players were much more likely to get a defensive award based solely on word of mouth. Personally, I'll always take more information over less information.

Andruw Jones is one of, if not the best, defensive center-fielders of all time (over a 10-12 year span)

Ultimately, no one is bashing the Gold Gloves. But he's in a different day and age where defense alone is not going to get someone in the HOF.

Ozzie Smith played in a day where Shortstops did just that...they played defense, and that was what a shortstop did. And Ozzie played it better than anyone. It wasn't until guys like ARod, Jeter and Nomar came along that the "perception" of a shortstop changed.

The "perception" of a great centerfielder has never been about defense and defense alone...that is just a PART of it. The Gold Gloves are great, the ALMOST 400 Home Runs is good...but the .258 career average is horrible. The less than 2000 hits right now is horrible.

Is he one of the best defensive center-fielders of all time? Probably. But do you put him even close in comparison to say Willie Mays or Ken Griffey Jr. as one of the best OVERALL Center-Fielders? Not a chance...

 

[markakis8]

LOL come on Sly...you are talking about .258 vs .262....4 points....that is a major stretch, even for you....they are both terrible batting averages in terms of Hall of Fame.

Its not like Ozzie hit .280 and Jones is at .258...you are talking about 4 points...

Why don't you put up their slugging % or OPS next to each other. I think that would be more telling.

Hell for as much as you want to rip on Ozzie's bat...guess who's got a higher career batting average...Ozzie or Andruw?? But of course, Ozzie didn't hit Home Runs, so DAMN HIM!!!!

 

[Sly]

LOL come on Sly...you are talking about .258 vs .262....4 points....that is a major stretch, even for you....they are both terrible batting averages in terms of Hall of Fame.

Its not like Ozzie hit .280 and Jones is at .258...you are talking about 4 points...

Why don't you put up their slugging % or OPS next to each other. I think that would be more telling.

Hell for as much as you want to rip on Ozzie's bat...guess who's got a higher career batting average...Ozzie or Andruw?? But of course, Ozzie didn't hit Home Runs, so DAMN HIM!!!!

I was being sarcastic in that everyone rips on Ozzie for not being a great hitter, when I was just making the point, that if Ozzie's not a "great hitter" due to his low average, than neither is Jones.

Regardless, but what you're saying now though, and which has always been an issue with this board, is that it's ALL ABOUT power and power alone. Of couse Andruw has a higher OPS and Slugging. Ozzie wasn't a power hitter...Jones is. But of course, everyone thinks that if you're a power hitter and hit a lot of home runs, you're a HOFer. If you don't do that...you're not.

Fact is that players get in for different reasons, and each position in baseball has a certain general "perception" about it and what its "speciality" is. Ozzie fit what a Shortstop was in his days, and was the best at it. Andruw fits what a center fielder is in his day...but doesn't play it nearly as well from a non-power offensive standpoint.

The idea of "milestone" stats is stupid, so saying "if he gets to 500 HR's, he's in" is ridiculous. As I said in my first post, 600 HR's is the new 500 HR's.

 

[markakis8]

Sly, don't forget he just turned 33 yesterday and he has those #'s below. Griffey only had about 200 more hits than Andruw Jones did at the same age

(Take a deep breath, I'm not comparing Andruw to Griffey).

Fact is, you can just tell Andruw has worked hard in the offseason. You can see it in his body and the way he carries himself. He has lost weight, and his approach at the plate is different.

Just go back and watch all of his at-bats on MLB.tv

And he's not just playing DH. He's out in LF playing every day.

He could easily play 5-6 more years and if he averages 125 hits and 25 HR that will put him around 2400 hits and 500 HR to go along with his 10 gold gloves.

Right now he's debatable. 5 more playing years and he'll be a lock.

The "perception" of a great centerfielder has never been about defense and defense alone...that is just a PART of it. The Gold Gloves are great, the ALMOST 400 Home Runs is good...but the .258 career average is horrible. The less than 2000 hits right now is horrible.

 

[markakis8]

Fine then look at this way:

Is he going to get in? NOT do you think he deserves it?

Because he's going to get in.

I don't think Ryne Sandberg should be in the Hall of Fame. But it would've been completely naive of me to say he wasn't going to get in.

Andruw Jones is going to get in the HOF with 500 HR's. Period.

I was being sarcastic in that everyone rips on Ozzie for not being a great hitter, when I was just making the point, that if Ozzie's not a "great hitter" due to his low average, than neither is Jones.

Regardless, but what you're saying now though, and which has always been an issue with this board, is that it's ALL ABOUT power and power alone. Of couse Andruw has a higher OPS and Slugging. Ozzie wasn't a power hitter...Jones is. But of course, everyone thinks that if you're a power hitter and hit a lot of home runs, you're a HOFer. If you don't do that...you're not.

Fact is that players get in for different reasons, and each position in baseball has a certain general "perception" about it and what its "speciality" is. Ozzie fit what a Shortstop was in his days, and was the best at it. Andruw fits what a center fielder is in his day...but doesn't play it nearly as well from a non-power offensive standpoint.

The idea of "milestone" stats is stupid, so saying "if he gets to 500 HR's, he's in" is ridiculous. As I said in my first post, 600 HR's is the new 500 HR's.

 

[Sly]

Sly, don't forget he just turned 33 yesterday and he has those #'s below. Griffey only had about 200 more hits than Andruw Jones did at the same age

(Take a deep breath, I'm not comparing Andruw to Griffey).

Fact is, you can just tell Andruw has worked hard in the offseason. You can see it in his body and the way he carries himself. He has lost weight, and his approach at the plate is different.

Just go back and watch all of his at-bats on MLB.tv

And he's not just playing DH. He's out in LF playing every day.

He could easily play 5-6 more years and if he averages 125 hits and 25 HR that will put him around 2400 hits and 500 HR to go along with his 10 gold gloves.

Right now he's debatable. 5 more playing years and he'll be a lock.

The "perception" of a great centerfielder has never been about defense and defense alone...that is just a PART of it. The Gold Gloves are great, the ALMOST 400 Home Runs is good...but the .258 career average is horrible. The less than 2000 hits right now is horrible.

And that's the thing...

His numbers right now do not warrant HOF consideration. Let's wait 5-6 more years to see if he can continue at his pre-2007 pace. If he spends the next 5-6 years hitting like he did the last 3 seasons, then he's still at this point where he's not getting in.

These discussions are stupid in that so many of them "assume" a player will continue to hit at the pace they currently are. Players decline in their 30's. Andruw Jones has been declining for the past three years, what makes us think he's going to go back to his previous form? To assume a player can regain his form of 3+ years ago, after having 3 very poor seasons is pretty naive.

If he regains his pre-2007 form and hits that way for the next 5-6 years, sure he may absolutely have a shot...but if his career were to end today, no way he gets in. If he can get to 500 HR's...maybe. If he can get to 2400 hits, maybe. Lots of "IF's" there. And right now, his stats don't warrant it, nor do I think he would get in right now.

 

[elemin8]

I remember when Andruw Jones was as Hyped as Jason Heyward is now. Unfortunately for fans/voters look for consistency and the last 3-4 years have not been good. He does look good now since he dropped the weight and plus the way he is running he could be a 20-15 guy this year. He needs to get through this year playing consistent before you can make a bid on the HOF for Jones but he does have the talent.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

Sly, don't forget he just turned 33 yesterday and he has those #'s below. Griffey only had about 200 more hits than Andruw Jones did at the same age

(Take a deep breath, I'm not comparing Andruw to Griffey).

Fact is, you can just tell Andruw has worked hard in the offseason. You can see it in his body and the way he carries himself. He has lost weight, and his approach at the plate is different.

Just go back and watch all of his at-bats on MLB.tv

And he's not just playing DH. He's out in LF playing every day.

He could easily play 5-6 more years and if he averages 125 hits and 25 HR that will put him around 2400 hits and 500 HR to go along with his 10 gold gloves.

Right now he's debatable. 5 more playing years and he'll be a lock.

The "perception" of a great centerfielder has never been about defense and defense alone...that is just a PART of it. The Gold Gloves are great, the ALMOST 400 Home Runs is good...but the .258 career average is horrible. The less than 2000 hits right now is horrible.

This is the interesting line to me. Is there actually a market for this type of player? A .220 hitter with average power and a poor on-base percentage?

Then again, that line was basically his 2007 season when the Braves gladly let him take his 26 HR, 127 hits, .222 average and his .724 OPS to the free agent market.

Had he not lost three seasons to complete suckitude this conversation for be far more in favor of induction, but that train looks derailed. And no, I don't think he has even two MLB average years left in him.

 

[Fandruw25]

He's not all-time. He was great in his time, but arguable as to who the best every year he played.

Also, right, wrong or indifferent, his fall-off is too suspect in it's immediate co-existance with PED testing. I'm not saying he did anything of the sort, but he dropped off at the worst time. Basically, it begs the question, why did he all of a sudden get worse, what changed?

Your pretty much are saying he used and then he sucked because he stopped. I don't think he did, I think it was just laziness on his part.

He got fat in the off season going into a contract year and When he went to the dodgers he was having to compete for playing time (lots of pressure put on andruw, I'm guessing by Scott Boris since he was landing all those high-dollar contracts, think Arod, same time period). Also, he was out w/ dodgers for knee surgery and at one point he had a hyper extended elbow that every time he swung the bat you could see the pain in his face. Looks like most of that has been fixed but only time will tell.

Right now, he's not HOF. If, and it's a big IF, he can have another 3-4 decent offensive seasons his defense numbers should be enough to offset the offense numbers and get him in.

 

[AmishDave]

The day Andruw Jones gets in the HOF is the same day Pete Rose is inducted.

 

[leatherman]

First of all, kudos to Markakis8 for defending your argument. It's a valid argument with some great support.

I moved to Atlanta in 1995, so I basically saw Andruw play his best years every time I went downtown to see a game. I have more memories of him than any other player. I can't tell you how many times he chased a ball down in the gap that would have dropped had any other player been in centerfield. He was always in the right position (which might say a lot about Bobby Cox, I really don't know), and made catch after catch that seemed effortless. When it was time for a bathroom break or a beer run, I did it as Andruw was running off the field and the Braves were coming to bat, lest I miss seeing another defensive gem.

It's funny that people are comparing him so much to Ozzie Smith, because he is the only other player I can remember that I would specifically watch simply to watch him play the field (not in person, but on TV).

As far as his career average being "terrible", the average for MLB during Andruw's career is .263, so he is just a few points below average. However, his power numbers are much higher than average. Bill James' HOF monitor lists his score at 102, with anything above 100 being a likely HOFer. When you consider this with his superior defense, he surely is a viable candidate for the HOF.

All this being said, I don't think he will be a HOFer. He was probably my favorite player to watch after Dwight Gooden retired, but I just don't think enough voters will put him on their ballot. But to argue that it is ridiculous notion that he should even be considered....well, that's a ridiculous notion in itself.

David

 

[fengzhang]

He's borderline.

But, I don't personally think he should be included.

People talk about 500 HR's being the benchmark. I have a different benchmark: .500. If you are a slugger who's played at least 80% of your career after the 1996 offensive boom, you need to have a career slugging percentage of at least .500 to get in. Every year 50 players slug .500. If you can't even average .500 for your career and you don't play in a premium offensive position like 2nd base or catcher, then you shouldn't be a Hall of Famer. Heck, even Shawn Green slugged .494 for his career. .500 should be the minimum for any slugger who has played most of his career in the late 90's and 00's. Frank Thomas has done it. Barry Bonds has done it. Ken Griffey Jr. has done it. Arod has done it. Heck, even Fred McGriff (another borderline HOF) has done it. I'm not going to call any power hitter who can't slug .500 in this day and age a "slugger" if he can't slug .500.

Andruw Jones' OBP and batting averages are atrocious. His only claim to the HOF is his defense and his "slugging." I'm not a fan of stat accumulation. To me, averaging a .550 slugging percentage is more impressive than 500 HR's in this day and age. A lot of Andruw Jones' HR's come from getting a lot of at-bats and switching for the fences all the time. I never saw him as a premium offensive player.

Edit: Here is a list of current players with career slugging percentages near Andruw Jones or higher: Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Lee, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena, Raul Ibanez. This is the class of slugger that Andruw Jones is in.

 

[pigskincardboard]

He's borderline.

But, I don't personally think he should be included.

People talk about 500 HR's being the benchmark. I have a different benchmark: .500. If you are a slugger who's played at least 80% of your career after the 1996 offensive boom, you need to have a career slugging percentage of at least .500 to get in. Every year 50 players slug .500. If you can't even average .500 for your career and you don't play in a premium offensive position like 2nd base or catcher, then you shouldn't be a Hall of Famer. Heck, even Shawn Green slugged .494 for his career. .500 should be the minimum for any slugger who has played most of his career in the late 90's and 00's. Frank Thomas has done it. Barry Bonds has done it. Ken Griffey Jr. has done it. Arod has done it. Heck, even Fred McGriff (another borderline HOF) has done it. I'm not going to call any power hitter who can't slug .500 in this day and age a "slugger" if he can't slug .500.

Andruw Jones' OBP and batting averages are atrocious. His only claim to the HOF is his defense and his "slugging." I'm not a fan of stat accumulation. To me, averaging a .550 slugging percentage is more impressive than 500 HR's in this day and age. A lot of Andruw Jones' HR's come from getting a lot of at-bats and switching for the fences all the time. I never saw him as a premium offensive player.

Edit: Here is a list of current players with career slugging percentages near Andruw Jones or higher: Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Lee, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena, Raul Ibanez. This is the class of slugger that Andruw Jones is in.

What if Jermaine Dye played defense like Jim Edmonds or Ichiro for his entire career. Andruw Jones' defense during that run was superior to either of those two guys.