May I Present to You -- The 2010 Bowman FINALIZED Checklist!

[Jaypers]

Do you think you can ask your contact at Topps what the packs odds are? Mostly for the Jumbo boxes. It would be nice to see what the parallel odds are before the boxes come out.

I'll ask.

 

[jdhaugh11]

I did some calculations of my own to try and figure out what on average you would get from a Jumbo Case. Now this is not exact, but based on this years checklist and last years odds, I feel these results are fairly close to what you should expect.
From 1 Jumbo Case you should get:
6.23 of the 24 Prospect autos will be some version of a parallel
2.91 of the 8 Rookie autos will be some version of a parallel
39.59 Prospect Chrome Parallels
18.44 USA Chrome Parallels
64 Bowman Blue Parallels /500 (Regular & Prospects combined)
42 Bowman Orange Parallels /250 (Regular & Prospects combined)
1.41 Futures Game Relic Cards
1 Stephen Strasburg Parallel Autographed card in 9 cases
5.10 cards will be serial numbered out of 25 or 50 (This includes Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
1.33 cards will be serial numbered out of 5 or less (This includes Regular Bowman, Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
96 Thowback Inserts
96 Top 100 Prospect Inserts
48 Expectations Inserts
96 Bowman Gold Parallels

Take these numbers for what they are, just an educated guess!

 

[matchpenalty]

Will be nice to see the official odds on pulling stuff. The you can get a good idea how many cases are going to be produced.

 

[Tick-Tock-Man]

I did some calculations of my own to try and figure out what on average you would get from a Jumbo Case. Now this is not exact, but based on this years checklist and last years odds, I feel these results are fairly close to what you should expect.
From 1 Jumbo Case you should get:
6.23 of the 24 Prospect autos will be some version of a parallel
2.91 of the 8 Rookie autos will be some version of a parallel
39.59 Prospect Chrome Parallels
18.44 USA Chrome Parallels
64 Bowman Blue Parallels /500 (Regular & Prospects combined)
42 Bowman Orange Parallels /250 (Regular & Prospects combined)
1.41 Futures Game Relic Cards
1 Stephen Strasburg Parallel Autographed card in 9 cases
5.10 cards will be serial numbered out of 25 or 50 (This includes Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
1.33 cards will be serial numbered out of 5 or less (This includes Regular Bowman, Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
96 Thowback Inserts
96 Top 100 Prospect Inserts
48 Expectations Inserts
96 Bowman Gold Parallels

Take these numbers for what they are, just an educated guess!

[code][code][code]

[/code][/code][/code]

Stephen Strasburg 1 per 9 cases, it's gonna be so rare? :shock:

 

[jdhaugh11]

Stephen Strasburg 1 per 9 cases, it's gonna be so rare? :shock:[/quote]

I said that the Parallel Autos of Stephen Strasburg would be 1 in 9 cases.

Right now they only stated there would be 280 Parallel Autos, but we don't know the count of regular autos or if there are any, but I would expect there will be.

I would guess there would be about 1,000 regular autos, which means that 1 in 2 cases will have a regular or parallel Strasburg auto in it.

This may sound high to some of you, but if you look at all the other autos in the set, if you bought 2 cases, you would get 16 Rookie autos out of a set of 14 and 48 Prospect autos out of a set of 31. Sure some of those autos would be parallels, but in 2 cases you would get doubles maybe triples of some guys.

Also I forgot to recalculate my numbers for the Rookie and Prospect autos for the expanded checklist.
Of the 24 Prospect Chrome Autographs, 8.78 should be a parallel version.
and of the 8 Rookie Chrome Autographs, 4.07 should be a parallel version.

 

[bmc398]

Stephen Strasburg 1 per 9 cases, it's gonna be so rare? :shock:

I said that the Parallel Autos of Stephen Strasburg would be 1 in 9 cases.

Right now they only stated there would be 280 Parallel Autos, but we don't know the count of regular autos or if there are any, but I would expect there will be.

I would guess there would be about 1,000 regular autos, which means that 1 in 2 cases will have a regular or parallel Strasburg auto in it.

This may sound high to some of you, but if you look at all the other autos in the set, if you bought 2 cases, you would get 16 Rookie autos out of a set of 14 and 48 Prospect autos out of a set of 31. Sure some of those autos would be parallels, but in 2 cases you would get doubles maybe triples of some guys.

Also I forgot to recalculate my numbers for the Rookie and Prospect autos for the expanded checklist.
Of the 24 Prospect Chrome Autographs, 8.78 should be a parallel version.
and of the 8 Rookie Chrome Autographs, 4.07 should be a parallel version.[/quote]
There are only 776 autos of Strasburg in the product.

500 Base
250 blue
25 orange
1 red

if there are 7760 cases made thats a one in ten case shot. I think it will end up being a 1 in 9 case shot overall to get one.

 

[ballerskrip]

I decided to lock into another jumbo case, wrapped it up for $825 (after discounts), not too bad

skrip

 

[011873]

I did some calculations of my own to try and figure out what on average you would get from a Jumbo Case. Now this is not exact, but based on this years checklist and last years odds, I feel these results are fairly close to what you should expect.
From 1 Jumbo Case you should get:
6.23 of the 24 Prospect autos will be some version of a parallel
2.91 of the 8 Rookie autos will be some version of a parallel
39.59 Prospect Chrome Parallels
18.44 USA Chrome Parallels
64 Bowman Blue Parallels /500 (Regular & Prospects combined)
42 Bowman Orange Parallels /250 (Regular & Prospects combined)
1.41 Futures Game Relic Cards
1 Stephen Strasburg Parallel Autographed card in 9 cases
5.10 cards will be serial numbered out of 25 or 50 (This includes Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
1.33 cards will be serial numbered out of 5 or less (This includes Regular Bowman, Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
96 Thowback Inserts
96 Top 100 Prospect Inserts
48 Expectations Inserts
96 Bowman Gold Parallels

Take these numbers for what they are, just an educated guess!

My goodness, do I hope these numbers are right. If they are, Jumbos will be the same as the national debt.
Nine ref autos, 100 Bowman numbered cards, 40 total refs including five Gold or Orange and one numbered to 5 or less.

I think youre off with the U.S.A. cards as they are 3 per jumbo (stated by Topps) making them 24 per case. I am also assuming that a ref U.S.A. doesnt take the place of a non ref. Although Im still not totally sold that you only get 3 per box (1 per 4 packs) as those odds are the same as Hobby and usually in Jumbo you get three times as much vs. Hobby.

 

[jdhaugh11]

My numbers on the USA cards were for the Parallels Only, on average you will get 2-3 parallel USA cards per Jumbo box.

Also if you think I am high on the number of refractor autos, take a look at the pack odds of 2009 Bowman Draft:

Pack Odds Parallel PerCase
71 Refractor 4.06
159 X-Fractor 1.81
241 Blue 1.20
736 Gold 0.39
1,545 Orange 0.19
6,378 Red 0.05
31,900 Super 0.01
7,973 Plate 0.04
Total 7.73

The regular autos were 1 in 34 packs, so if you do the math, that mean 48% of the autos were some kind of parallel.
I calculated that you would get 8.78 parallel Prospect autos out of the 16 you will get in a case, so that is 55%. That is a little higher than what Bowman Draft was last year, but I am talking about Jumbos, which always has better odds.
When looking at last years Bowman Draft, the Prospects signed 985 total parallel cards and if that accounted for 48% of their total autos, then that means they signed about 1,069 regular autos, so about 2,000 overall.

 

[jdhaugh11]

Hey Jaypers,
Do you live in central Iowa?
I saw that you had a Cyclone reference and the rainbow or Hellickson Chrome cards.
My name is Jestin and I setup at the Des Moines Legion Hall, Southridge and Merle Hay Mall shows.
If you come to any of these shows, then I have probably seen and/or talked to you before.
Did you buy a case or more of this?
I bought 1 Jumbo case, and my friend Chad did as well.
If you need any help finishing sets just let me know.

 

[Jaypers]

Hey Jaypers,
Do you live in central Iowa?
I saw that you had a Cyclone reference and the rainbow or Hellickson Chrome cards.
My name is Jestin and I setup at the Des Moines Legion Hall, Southridge and Merle Hay Mall shows.
If you come to any of these shows, then I have probably seen and/or talked to you before.
Did you buy a case or more of this?
I bought 1 Jumbo case, and my friend Chad did as well.
If you need any help finishing sets just let me know.

Nope, central Illinois. Never been to Iowa.

 

[011873]

Topps told me that the odds of finding a U.S.A. card in Jumbos will be "better" than in Hobby.
Didnt say how much better but I assume its either one per pack or one every other pack.

 

[matchpenalty]

Any guess on jumbo and hobby cases they will crank out.

 

[jdhaugh11]

Any guess on jumbo and hobby cases they will crank out.

I am thinking they will make about 10,000 boxes (1,250 cases) of Jumbo
and about 20,400 boxes (1,700 cases) of regular.

 

[Jaypers]

Just over one week to go.

Assuming no delays, of course. Anyone heard anything?

 

[JVC]

Just over one week to go.

Assuming no delays, of course. Anyone heard anything?

This month's Beckett states a release date of 5/10 but Blowout is still showing 5/12

 

[jdhaugh11]

Just over one week to go.

Assuming no delays, of course. Anyone heard anything?

This month's Beckett states a release date of 5/10 but Blowout is still showing 5/12

Got a response from Topps and they said that the release date is still 5/12.
They would not give me pack odds, so I guess we will have to wait until the product is live.
I hope Big T Sportscards gets their cases a day or so before so I can get it by the end of next week, otherwise I am afraid I won't get it until Monday May 17th!

 

[mredsox89]

I'll be getting mine on 5/15 at the earliest, as thats when I'll finally be back in MA. Hopefully I can pick them up on the 15th or 16th.

 

[baseballguy350]

I'll be getting mine on 5/15 at the earliest, as thats when I'll finally be back in MA. Hopefully I can pick them up on the 15th or 16th.

I was actually thinking about giving them to you on the 30th. Any problems with that?

 

[mredsox89]

I'll be getting mine on 5/15 at the earliest, as thats when I'll finally be back in MA. Hopefully I can pick them up on the 15th or 16th.

I was actually thinking about giving them to you on the 30th. Any problems with that?

I think I'll have to pass on that suggestion