May I Present to You -- The 2010 Bowman FINALIZED Checklist!

[abt3509]

I did some calculations of my own to try and figure out what on average you would get from a Jumbo Case. Now this is not exact, but based on this years checklist and last years odds, I feel these results are fairly close to what you should expect.
From 1 Jumbo Case you should get:
6.23 of the 24 Prospect autos will be some version of a parallel
2.91 of the 8 Rookie autos will be some version of a parallel
39.59 Prospect Chrome Parallels
18.44 USA Chrome Parallels
64 Bowman Blue Parallels /500 (Regular & Prospects combined)
42 Bowman Orange Parallels /250 (Regular & Prospects combined)
1.41 Futures Game Relic Cards
1 Stephen Strasburg Parallel Autographed card in 9 cases
5.10 cards will be serial numbered out of 25 or 50 (This includes Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
1.33 cards will be serial numbered out of 5 or less (This includes Regular Bowman, Chrome Prospects, USA and Autos)
96 Thowback Inserts
96 Top 100 Prospect Inserts
48 Expectations Inserts
96 Bowman Gold Parallels

Take these numbers for what they are, just an educated guess!

Thanks for calculating and posting these odds. I sure hope you are close!
Are you saying that there will be 32 autos/jumbo case? I thought there were only going to be 24.

 

[jdhaugh11]

Sorry that was a typo, you will onl get 16 Prospect Autos and 24 autos total. The number of parallel autos is correct based on my calculations, but I stated the total amount of autos you would get instead of just the Prospect Auto amount you would get in a case.

 

[Jaypers]

T-minus 1 week and counting....

 

[All In Cards]

T-minus 1 week and counting....

you busting any?

 

[Jaypers]

T-minus 1 week and counting....

you busting any?

Yep, I've decided to bust my jumbo case.

(don't pretend to be surprised...)

 

[All In Cards]

T-minus 1 week and counting....

you busting any?

Yep, I've decided to bust my jumbo case.

(don't pretend to be surprised...)

Not surprised at all

 

[Jaypers]

You surprised about Jimbo deciding to bust his 12 jumbo cases?

(he's already listed 20 ct. Bowman and Bowman Chrome pre-sale lots on eBay.....(plug)... :mrgreen:

 

[ballerskrip]

I have decided to rip my 3 cases. I just won't be able to help my self.

I can't wait. My wife is getting annoyed with hearing about release dates, etc!

skrip

 

[abt3509]

Sorry that was a typo, you will onl get 16 Prospect Autos and 24 autos total. The number of parallel autos is correct based on my calculations, but I stated the total amount of autos you would get instead of just the Prospect Auto amount you would get in a case.

So you stiil think a jumbo case will yield 6.23 parallel prospect autos. That's awesome!!

 

[chrome_ball]

I have a feeling the odds on this product (especially for non-auto chrome parallels) are going to be quite ugly. I hope they are not, but the hype around this product tells me otherwise.

 

[jdhaugh11]

I think they decided on the amount they were going to produce months ago, so the recent hype and increase in price will not impact the number of boxes made. Also Topps is not making any more money on this than they would have, the Wholesalers and dealers and us who pre-ordered the product will be the ones who make a nice profit.
I hope I am not wrong about this. I would hate it if Topps watered down the product by making more boxes, which in turn made for less parallels per box. The one thing that tells me they didn't do this, is that they only have so many autos, so they can only make so many boxes in order to still give us 3 per jumbo.
If anything there will be more hits because the original checklist only showed 22 Prospect Autos and the final one shows 31 and the RC autos only showed 10 and now shows 14.
Plus the addition of the USA cards and all the parallels that go along with them and all the insert cards, make it so we should see less regular Bowman cards than ever before.

 

[All In Cards]

If prices go up again at release, I think the best buy here might be retail boxes/blasters as we know they wont change in price.

 

[chrome_ball]

Adding autos to the checklist equates to longer odds on non-auto parallels though. Of course this assumes that they keep the number of base autos uniform and the non-auto chrome refractors are numbered to 500 - 599 range like in the past.

I, as well, hope that they didn't make a TON of this stuff, but until we see the pack odds we really have no idea for sure.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

You surprised about Jimbo deciding to bust his 12 jumbo cases?

(he's already listed 20 ct. Bowman and Bowman Chrome pre-sale lots on eBay.....(plug)... :mrgreen:

Thanks for the plug, but it doesn't take 12 cases to make 20ct chrome lots, so I certainly have not decided how many I'll bust past the first 3 or 4.

I'm getting some really nice action early on. The Strasburg lots are naturally getting the most interest early on, but the 20 ct Bowman lot of Heyward is over a $1 per card too.

 

[jdhaugh11]

The good thing is that most of the low #'ed cards will be Hobby exclusive:

All the Strasburg autos can only be found in Regular Hobby or Jumbo boxes.
Also all Printing Plates (including Strasburg autos, Chrome and Regular Bowman) will be Jumbo exclusive!
And all Superfractors 1/1's, Red 1/1's and Chrome Red #'ed/5 will NOT be in Retail!!!
This should help with the pack odds. Another reason why Retail is terrible to buy. Only meant for little kids and maybe set builders.
Jumbo has always been the way to go, but this year even more so, I think at least!

 

[jdhaugh11]

Beckett just posted pack odds for the regular Bowman, I have asked them to post the Jumbos, hopefully they will since that is what most of us on here got.
A few things I took from the odds:
1) The Red 1/1 and 4 Printing Plates of Strasburg are all in the Jumbo boxes!
2) They added MLB logo patch cards, sure they are very hard to pull, but another nice chase!

Here are the regular Bowman Odds (I calculated Per Pack, Box and Case):

Insert Pack Box Case
Blue parallel: 1:17 0.06 1.41 16.94
Orange parallel: 1:35 0.03 0.69 8.23
Red parallel: 1:3,400 0.00 0.01 0.08
Bowman Throwbacks: 1:2 0.50 12.00 144.00
Topps 100: 1:2 0.50 12.00 144.00
Bowman Expectations: 1:3 0.33 8.00 96.00
USA Baseball (Chrome only): 1:4 0.25 6.00 72.00
Prospect/USA Baseball Refractors: 1:16 0.06 1.50 18.00
Prospect/USA Blue Refractors: 1:46 0.02 0.52 6.26
Prospect/USA Gold Refractors: 1:228 0.00 0.11 1.26
Prospect/USA Orange Refractors: 1:463 0.00 0.05 0.62
Prospect/USA Red Refractors: 1:2,828 0.00 0.01 0.10
Prospect/USA SuperFractors: 1:11,000 0.00 0.00 0.03
Futures Game Triple Relic: 1:402 0.00 0.06 0.72
MLB logo patch cards: 1:5,900 0.00 0.00 0.05
Autographed Chrome Prospect: 1:38 0.03 0.63 7.58
Auto. Chrome Prospect Refractor 1:96 0.01 0.25 3.00
Auto. Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor: 1:139 0.01 0.17 2.07
Auto. Chrome Prospect Gold Refractor: 1:957 0.00 0.03 0.30
Auto. Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor: 1:1,917 0.00 0.01 0.15
Auto. Chrome Prospect Red Refractor: 1:9.587 0.00 0.00 0.03
Auto. Chrome Prospect SuperFractor: 1:47,000 0.00 0.00 0.01
Auto Chrome Rookie: 1:113 0.01 0.21 2.55
Auto Chrome Rookie Refractor: 1:277 0.00 0.09 1.04
Auto Chrome Rookie Blue Refractor: 1:545 0.00 0.04 0.53
Auto Chrome Rookie Gold Refractor: 1:2,733 0.00 0.01 0.11
Auto Chrome Rookie SuperFractor: 1:141,400 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stephen Strasburg autographed base card: 1:2,013 0.00 0.01 0.14
Stephen Strasburg autographed base card Blue: 1:5,700 0.00 0.00 0.05
Stephen Strasburg autographed base card Orange: 1:56,500 0.00 0.00 0.01
Total 1.83 43.82 525.85

 

[jdhaugh11]

This shows that you will get 5.56 Prospect Autos Parallels per case, looks like my prediction of 8.78 Prospect Autos Parallels in a Jumbo case may not be very far off.
Also it shows that a Strasburg auto of any kind will be 1 in 5 cases. I predicted 1 in 3.3 Jumbo cases, so those numbers are probably right on as well.

For the Regular bowman when you add in the Prospect, Rookie and Strasburg Auto's, you get 1.46 autos per box or 17.56 per case, which is not too shabby!

 

[jdhaugh11]

Looks like you will get either a Triple Relic or Strasburg Auto. per Regular Case. So if you get a Relic, you probably won't see a Strasburg Auto.

 

[abt3509]

I sure wish they would post the jumbo odds!!

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Beckett didn't get jumbo boxes to open, so they wouldn't have odds to deliver to us.