No threads about CC's 20th win?

[bongo870]

one would think they would go by stats and not by what team you are on.
Exact amount of games (32)
C.C. allowed 196 hits
Felix allowed 187 hits (better than C. C.)

C.C. allowed 84 runs
Felix allowed 78 runs (better than C.C.)

C.C.'s earned runs average is 76
Felixes Earned run average is 61 (better than C.C.)

C.C. gave up 19 home runs
Felix gave up 16 (better than C.C.)

C.C. walked 69 players
Felix walked 64 (better than C.C.)

C.C. struk out 183
Felix struck out 222 (way up on C.C.)

C.C. has 20 wins (better than Felix)
Felix has 12 wins

C.C. has 6 losses (better than Felix)
Felix has 11 losses

C.C. has a 3.05 ERA
Felix has a 2.35 (better than C.C.)

C.C. has a whip of 1.18
Felix has a whip of 1.07

Even though both these stats are rocking! Felix shined in everything other than the wins and losses.
But I cant see how a "team" name can influence there choice..

 

[markakis8]

I'm not a Sabathia hater, let me start by saying that. I do wish he would've chosen someone else besides NY to play for, but I can't help that.

I love big men that can compete, so if Sabathia wasn't a Yankee, I would probably root for him. I remember I was happy when he won the Cy Young over Beckett as an Indian.

That being said, I have 2 major points to this post.

The first:

C.C. is overrated. Now don't go jumping down my throat just yet - people get all pissed when the term overrated is used, but it doesn't mean C.C. Sabathia is just as overrated as, say, Alfonso Soriano - I think he's a great pitcher and would be an ace on any team...BUT...the man has played on some magnificent teams - just like Andy Pettitte.

He has had one year with an ERA under 3 (2.70) and that was b/c of a torrid run going through the NL (mostly the central teams) with the Brewers. His career ERA is 3.56. That's respectable, but it just shows he's more consistent than great.

You stick C.C. on the Royals or Orioles (the teams from the past decade) and I think he never sniffs 20 wins. You stick Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson on the Royals or Orioles - and I really don't think their numbers are that different. Not that anyone was comparing C.C. to those two, but the term "great" does not define C.C.

The second:

He won't get to 300 wins. I would argue he has the best shot of all the active pitchers, but he won't. And I would be extremely surprised if anyone ever does it again. It would take a "great" pitcher, elite would you, and there are none that have proven to be labeled as such pitching today.

It's most likely C.C. will continue on his current path and end up with ~250 wins. He'll get into the HOF if he does so with his track record (Cy Young, WS ring, and W %). He will deserve it. He'll just never be on part with the great ones. He'll be a Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, or Mike Mussina to me.

 

[All The Hype]

I'm not a Sabathia hater, let me start by saying that. I do wish he would've chosen someone else besides NY to play for, but I can't help that.

I love big men that can compete, so if Sabathia wasn't a Yankee, I would probably root for him. I remember I was happy when he won the Cy Young over Beckett as an Indian.

That being said, I have 2 major points to this post.

The first:

C.C. is overrated. Now don't go jumping down my throat just yet - people get all pissed when the term overrated is used, but it doesn't mean C.C. Sabathia is just as overrated as, say, Alfonso Soriano - I think he's a great pitcher and would be an ace on any team...BUT...the man has played on some magnificent teams - just like Andy Pettitte.

He has had one year with an ERA under 3 (2.70) and that was b/c of a torrid run going through the NL (mostly the central teams) with the Brewers. His career ERA is 3.56. That's respectable, but it just shows he's more consistent than great.

You stick C.C. on the Royals or Orioles (the teams from the past decade) and I think he never sniffs 20 wins. You stick Pedro Martinez or Randy Johnson on the Royals or Orioles - and I really don't think their numbers are that different. Not that anyone was comparing C.C. to those two, but the term "great" does not define C.C.

The second:

He won't get to 300 wins. I would argue he has the best shot of all the active pitchers, but he won't. And I would be extremely surprised if anyone ever does it again. It would take a "great" pitcher, elite would you, and there are none that have proven to be labeled as such pitching today.

It's most likely C.C. will continue on his current path and end up with ~250 wins. He'll get into the HOF if he does so with his track record (Cy Young, WS ring, and W %). He will deserve it. He'll just never be on part with the great ones. He'll be a Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, or Mike Mussina to me.

Outstanding post.

The point about putting a player on a different team is always interesting. If you put Felix on a winning team, he surely would have the win total to make him the clear front runner for the Cy Young. Contrarily, if you put Sabathia on a losing team, there wouldn't even be an argument for him.

 

[RL24]

You guys are jokers, absolutely cracking *me* up now.

I think he's a great pitcher and would be an ace on any team...BUT...the man has played on some magnificent teams - just like Andy Pettitte.

Some magnificent teams? You obviously haven't followed the Indians very closely this last decade. Last time we had a dominant team was right before CC made it to the majors. Even the 2007 team that almost made it to the WS really sucked, they just had a miraculous run at the end of the year while the teams in front of the collapsed. I mean, it was all brought to you by Asdrubal Cabrera... talk about "magnificent". :lol:


Sorry guys, CC went through the first 7 years of his career on a losing team, and look at his stats. Dude is a WINNER!

 

[markakis8]

You guys are jokers, absolutely cracking *me* up now.

I think he's a great pitcher and would be an ace on any team...BUT...the man has played on some magnificent teams - just like Andy Pettitte.

Some magnificent teams? You obviously haven't followed the Indians very closely this last decade. Last time we had a dominant team was right before CC made it to the majors. Even the 2007 team that almost made it to the WS really sucked, they just had a miraculous run at the end of the year while the teams in front of the collapsed. I mean, it was all brought to you by Asdrubal Cabrera... talk about "magnificent". :lol:


Sorry guys, CC went through the first 7 years of his career on a losing team, and look at his stats. Dude is a WINNER!

he clearly is a winner....explain his career 3.56 ERA...DUDE had some serious sun support over his last 320 starts. like i said before, he's good. but not great.

i can understand why, in your situation, you would be upset though.

 

[darocker80]

If a mlb pitcher broke into the bigs at the age of 23-25 and has pitched very successful and can pitch till he's 42+ then he has a legit shot

If CC can still pitch like he has 3-5 years in the future he has a decent chance of 300 and at the least sniffing it.

 

[All The Hype]

If a mlb pitcher broke into the bigs at the age of 23-25 and has pitched very successful and can pitch till he's 42+ then he has a legit shot

If CC can still pitch like he has 3-5 years in the future he has a decent chance of 300 and at the least sniffing it.

I think a guy in a situation like Rick Porcello has a shot at 300 wins. Not to say I think Porcello will win that many, but someone in his situation where you start at age 20 and play for a decent team and last for 20 years or so has the best shot.

I definitely believe 300 will happen again.

 

[leatherman]

CC's first 5 seasons (2001-2005):
157 G (all starts), 69-45, 4.10 ERA, 972.2 IP, 761 Ks, 6 CG, 2 Shutouts, 107 ERA+

CC's last 5 seasons (2006-2010):
163 G (all starts), 87-42, 3.10 ERA, 1140.2, 1012 Ks, 24 CG, 9 Shutouts, 143 ERA+

Should he put together another 5 seasons like his last 5, he will have about 245 wins at age 35 (he is 30 right now). Honestly, I think it comes down to his weight and conditioning. He is already at 290 lbs and any increase in weight is going to make pitching that much more difficult, especially after age 35. David Wells was able to win over 100 games at over 35 and being similarly overweight, but he did it with pinpoint control (he averaged 1.5 BB/9 after age 35) and nibbling on the corners (the only thing he ever nibbled).

I hope CC does it, but 156 is a long way from 300. After all, Dwight Gooden had 157 wins before he turned 30 too.

 

[RL24]

I don't think CC will make it to 300, I agree with whoever said he's set for life and why would he want to keep working? But who knows, maybe he loves the game more than I give him credit for, or maybe he'll be all old and Favrey and hunting for that one more championship...

he clearly is a winner....explain his career 3.56 ERA...DUDE had some serious sun support over his last 320 starts. like i said before, he's good. but not great.

i can understand why, in your situation, you would be upset though.

I never got upset, and I'm sorry if I gave you that impression. I literally laughed right out loud when I read about the Cleveland Indians falling into the "some magnificent teams" category.


How do I explain his career 3.56 ERA? That's easy, that's a "Quality Career". If it takes 6 IP of 3 ER or less for a quality start, and this guy allows an average of 2.35 runs every 6 innings, that's a career full of quality starts.

You make it seem like a career 3.56 ERA is a bad thing. I went to baseball reference and clicked on "leaders" and then went down to the ERA section and clicked "active". No fancy modifications or filters or anything like that, just baseball references ERA leaderboard. Guess what I found?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leade ... tive.shtml

CC's 3.56 ERA is 11th best in the world out of guys who qualify for the list, 1000 IP. That includes relievers/closers, which is a different position from starters.... it also includes pitchers who pitch in the NL, which isn't even fair. If you want to check out CC's career NL ERA, you'll see what I mean. Put him in the NL and his ERA is 1.65! But of course, he didn't really have a long enough NL career for that to prove anything. And speaking of, 1000 IPs isn't much of a career, so I went in and changed the requirement to 2000 IP, and was generous enough to include the NL... CC's ERA is 4th best in the world out of pitchers with 2K IP. And Felix's career ERA of 3.22 is remarkably similar to 3.56! When he gets to 2000 IP, we'll see where his ERA is at.

But of course, when picking the 2010 Cy Young, they won't be looking at career ERA anyway...



And as far as his 3.56 ERA making him good, but not great.... 300 Game Winner and HOFer Early Wynn would like to tell you that you're not great either. :lol: Although I have to admit, from perusing that list a career 3.56 ERA doesn't get you into the Hall.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

CC's first 5 seasons (2001-2005):
157 G (all starts), 69-45, 4.10 ERA, 972.2 IP, 761 Ks, 6 CG, 2 Shutouts, 107 ERA+

CC's last 5 seasons (2006-2010):
163 G (all starts), 87-42, 3.10 ERA, 1140.2, 1012 Ks, 24 CG, 9 Shutouts, 143 ERA+

Should he put together another 5 seasons like his last 5, he will have about 245 wins at age 35 (he is 30 right now). Honestly, I think it comes down to his weight and conditioning. He is already at 290 lbs and any increase in weight is going to make pitching that much more difficult, especially after age 35. David Wells was able to win over 100 games at over 35 and being similarly overweight, but he did it with pinpoint control (he averaged 1.5 BB/9 after age 35) and nibbling on the corners (the only thing he ever nibbled).

I hope CC does it, but 156 is a long way from 300. After all, Dwight Gooden had 157 wins before he turned 30 too.

Well said David.

Id also like to add that David Wells was diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes in 2007, essentially ending his career (not that it wasnt over already at that point). i have no doubt in my mind that Wells' weight and lifestyle lead to him getting sick. I know that sounds harsh, but i am in the same boat, so i know of what i speak. If CC doesnt do something about his conditioning, he MIGHT (and i say might because not all fat men get the disease) be headed down the same path as David Wells

 

[bigpapiMA32]

I don't really see anyone who is currently in the majors reaching 300 wins. You really need to have the right kind of body and mechanics. CC's weight is a major issue. I can easily see him winning 18-20 games for the next five or six years, but after that? Doubtful. Halladay has 167 at 33, he'll probably end up in the 250 range with Sabathia.

Looking at the game's elite young pitchers, I'm not sure there's anyone with a great shot. Johnson and Hernandez won't get up there unless they sign with an elite team (which neither can do for a while). Price has great mechanics and looks promising, but he's 25 with only 27 career wins. Lester has 60 at 26, but not flawless mechanics and relies a lot on his fastball. Same with Lincecum. Cahill's throwing motion isn't flawless, and he's on a bad team. Strasburg I don't think I even need to give reasons for.

Winning 300 games has become something of a lost art.

 

[All The Hype]

I don't really see anyone who is currently in the majors reaching 300 wins. You really need to have the right kind of body and mechanics. CC's weight is a major issue. I can easily see him winning 18-20 games for the next five or six years, but after that? Doubtful. Halladay has 167 at 33, he'll probably end up in the 250 range with Sabathia.

Looking at the game's elite young pitchers, I'm not sure there's anyone with a great shot. Johnson and Hernandez won't get up there unless they sign with an elite team (which neither can do for a while). Price has great mechanics and looks promising, but he's 25 with only 27 career wins. Lester has 60 at 26, but not flawless mechanics and relies a lot on his fastball. Same with Lincecum. Cahill's throwing motion isn't flawless, and he's on a bad team. Strasburg I don't think I even need to give reasons for.

Winning 300 games has become something of a lost art.

Ok well to play devil's advocate, let me reverse my above statement and say what about Rick Porcello? This is a hypothetical question since Porcello is not an elite pitcher and hasn't even had a good season, but he has youth on his side. Perhaps there's a better example out there but he's the first who comes to mind.

Anyway: If he were to find his groove next year and maintain it, he could easily win 15ish games per year. Even on the Tigers who are on average team this year, Justin Verlander has found a way to win 17 games (and counting), so I don't think winning 15+ is out of the question due to team. So if Porcello were to win 15 games for the next few years, that puts him at close to 80 wins through the season during which he is 25 years old...about the time when pitchers should start to hit their prime. That's pretty decent positioning for making a run at 300 in my opinion.

At some point in time, you're gonna have to win more than 15 games in a season. I also want to repeat that this is hypothetical...I am not actually saying I think Porcello is going to win 300 games. Hell, at the current rate he would be lucky to win 200. The argument is about a pitcher with youth and a half-decent team. I personally think this is the kind of player that will hit 300 wins.

What do you think?

 

[darocker80]

I guess you can add clayton kershaw and madison bumgarner to the list pretty young. I think Bumgarner is still 20 actually.

 

[hail2thevictors]

Lol, wins are the most important, your team scores 1 you cant give any runs up. Your team scores 5 you can only give up 4. My philosophy is that if you win, youre the best.

It's really pretty simple, to be honest. Over a 250 inning season(based on their current ERA's)...

CC Sabathia would give up 85 ER
Felix would give up 65 ER

Without throwing any other stats into the equation, you would have to be the biggest homer, or just completely dumb to take CC. But, then you figure in Felix to date has thrown more innings, with a much lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and more K/9 innings, and it's a slam dunk. Felix is the best pitcher in the AL this year, and it's not close.

This is coming from a Tigers fan, who couldn't care less about either guy or either team.

 

[All The Hype]

Here are a few more guys that came to mind when you think of young pitchers who are either good or have big potential:

Madison Bumgarner is 21 with 5 wins (next year will be more indicative than this year of how much he will take advantage of his youth)
Rick Porcello is 21 with 23 wins
Clayton Kershaw is 22 with 25 wins
Phil Hughes is 24 with 29 wins
Yovani Gallardo is 24 with 35 wins
Felix Hernandez is 24 with 70 wins
Ubaldo Jimenez is 26 with 50 wins
Tim Lincecum is 26 with 54 wins
Jon Lester is 26 with 60 wins
Justin Verlander is 27 with 82 wins


I'm sure I have missed a few, but this list gives a bit of a rundown. Verlander doesn't appear to be in terrible shape (most wins on the list, although he is oldest on the list as well) if he can pitch until at least age 40, but he's going to have to put together some big seasons before he starts to decline. Felix may have the best shot with 70 wins by age 24. This is kind of what I was talking about when I mentioned Porcello above, because it appears that Felix will have at least 80 wins by age 25. Assume the Mariners stop sucking so much and are at least a .500 team...does he have a shot? I think so.

 

[kdailey4315]

Here are a few more guys that came to mind when you think of young pitchers who are either good or have big potential:

Madison Bumgarner is 21 with 5 wins (next year will be more indicative than this year of how much he will take advantage of his youth)
Rick Porcello is 21 with 23 wins
Clayton Kershaw is 22 with 25 wins
Phil Hughes is 24 with 29 wins
Yovani Gallardo is 24 with 35 wins
Felix Hernandez is 24 with 70 wins
Ubaldo Jimenez is 26 with 50 wins
Tim Lincecum is 26 with 54 wins
Jon Lester is 26 with 60 wins
Justin Verlander is 27 with 82 wins


I'm sure I have missed a few, but this list gives a bit of a rundown. Verlander doesn't appear to be in terrible shape (most wins on the list, although he is oldest on the list as well) if he can pitch until at least age 40, but he's going to have to put together some big seasons before he starts to decline. Felix may have the best shot with 70 wins by age 24. This is kind of what I was talking about when I mentioned Porcello above, because it appears that Felix will have at least 80 wins by age 25. Assume the Mariners stop sucking so much and are at least a .500 team...does he have a shot? I think so.

A lot of people don't realize that Matt Cain is only 25. He has 56 wins

 

[jdacunha]

Ok, so if I pitcher goes 0-20, but has the best ERA, WHIP, etc. he should win the CY Young?

Felix won't even win 15 games, he is NOT the CY Young.

 

[All The Hype]

Here are a few more guys that came to mind when you think of young pitchers who are either good or have big potential:

Madison Bumgarner is 21 with 5 wins (next year will be more indicative than this year of how much he will take advantage of his youth)
Rick Porcello is 21 with 23 wins
Clayton Kershaw is 22 with 25 wins
Phil Hughes is 24 with 29 wins
Yovani Gallardo is 24 with 35 wins
Felix Hernandez is 24 with 70 wins
Ubaldo Jimenez is 26 with 50 wins
Tim Lincecum is 26 with 54 wins
Jon Lester is 26 with 60 wins
Justin Verlander is 27 with 82 wins


I'm sure I have missed a few, but this list gives a bit of a rundown. Verlander doesn't appear to be in terrible shape (most wins on the list, although he is oldest on the list as well) if he can pitch until at least age 40, but he's going to have to put together some big seasons before he starts to decline. Felix may have the best shot with 70 wins by age 24. This is kind of what I was talking about when I mentioned Porcello above, because it appears that Felix will have at least 80 wins by age 25. Assume the Mariners stop sucking so much and are at least a .500 team...does he have a shot? I think so.

A lot of people don't realize that Matt Cain is only 25. He has 56 wins

Ha nice, funny you should mention him because I was really close to looking him up for the list but decided he must be at least 27. Guess I should have. Anyone else? Before I got too lazy, I also thought of looking up Cole Hamels in addition to Cain.

 

[bigpapiMA32]

Here are a few more guys that came to mind when you think of young pitchers who are either good or have big potential:

Madison Bumgarner is 21 with 5 wins (next year will be more indicative than this year of how much he will take advantage of his youth)
Rick Porcello is 21 with 23 wins
Clayton Kershaw is 22 with 25 wins
Phil Hughes is 24 with 29 wins
Yovani Gallardo is 24 with 35 wins
Felix Hernandez is 24 with 70 wins
Ubaldo Jimenez is 26 with 50 wins
Tim Lincecum is 26 with 54 wins
Jon Lester is 26 with 60 wins
Justin Verlander is 27 with 82 wins


I'm sure I have missed a few, but this list gives a bit of a rundown. Verlander doesn't appear to be in terrible shape (most wins on the list, although he is oldest on the list as well) if he can pitch until at least age 40, but he's going to have to put together some big seasons before he starts to decline. Felix may have the best shot with 70 wins by age 24. This is kind of what I was talking about when I mentioned Porcello above, because it appears that Felix will have at least 80 wins by age 25. Assume the Mariners stop sucking so much and are at least a .500 team...does he have a shot? I think so.

Here's my $0.02

Bumgarner - too early to tell
Rick Porcello is 21 with 23 wins - possibly, but he sure has thrown a lot of innings at a young age. Good mechanics.
Clayton Kershaw is 22 with 25 wins - another maybe, but needs to develop changeup for when he can't light up the gun later in his career
Phil Hughes is 24 with 29 wins - is pretty far behind the pack at 24/29
Yovani Gallardo is 24 with 35 wins - not perfect mechanics, not a great team
Felix Hernandez is 24 with 70 wins - has thrown a ton of innings, and is on the Mariners for a while...
Ubaldo Jimenez is 26 with 50 wins - will most likely have elbow problems at some point, watch his delivery in slow-mo
Tim Lincecum is 26 with 54 wins - will rack up a lot early in his career, but I'm doubting his longevity
Jon Lester is 26 with 60 wins - as I said above, not flawless mechanics. Needs to develop changeup for later in career.
Justin Verlander is 27 with 82 wins - power pitchers rarely reach 300

But I would agree with you that Felix has the best shot.

 

[RL24]

Lol, wins are the most important, your team scores 1 you cant give any runs up. Your team scores 5 you can only give up 4. My philosophy is that if you win, youre the best.

It's really pretty simple, to be honest. Over a 250 inning season(based on their current ERA's)...

CC Sabathia would give up 85 ER
Felix would give up 65 ER

Without throwing any other stats into the equation, you would have to be the biggest homer, or just completely dumb to take CC. But, then you figure in Felix to date has thrown more innings, with a much lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and more K/9 innings, and it's a slam dunk. Felix is the best pitcher in the AL this year, and it's not close.

This is coming from a Tigers fan, who couldn't care less about either guy or either team.

I just had an epiphany! Sorry guys, this whole time I thought we were actually discussing who is going to win the Cy Young Award! My bad, my bad.

Alright, Felix has the best stats of any pitcher this year. If winning is completely unimportant to you, then yes, he's been the "best pitcher."

He as 12 wins. When is the last time somebody won a Cy Young with 12 or less wins (and 0 saves)? Never. Never ever? Never ever. Not since they started giving the award out in 1956.

Of course, the season isn't over... he could make it to 14 wins. So then we have to ask ourselves, how often do they give the award to starting pitchers with 14 or less wins? 1 time in 53 years. And that was Fernando Valenzuela in his incredible 1981 season. That was a special season. (From wiki): As a rookie, he started the season 8-0 with five shutouts and an ERA of 0.50. He became an instant media icon, drawing huge crowds from the Los Angeles Latino community every time he pitched and triggering high demand across the country for his rookie baseball cards. The craze surrounding Valenzuela came to be known as "Fernandomania."

You can't really say that that's what kind of season Felix has had. He's been good, he's been great, but he hasn't been Cy Young Winner caliber great.

EDIT: After another second of research I realized that 1981 was a strike shortened season. So actually... how often do they give the award to starting pitchers with 14 or less wins? Never. Forever Never? Forever Never.

As far as anybody having a chance at 300 Wins...

let me reverse my above statement

My pick would be Felix. If I was starting a franchise and had to pick my Ace, he would be it. Not because he's better than CC, but because he's so young. It would be really great for him if he could get signed by the Yankees. He'd probably get that 300 wins and a few rings to boot...


Go Tribe. :|