One of those experiences that makes me question this Hobby

[ballerskrip]

If I had more space I would have written - One of those terrible experiences that has made me question my place in the hobby and if I should be in it or not.

I busted 8 cases of 2010 bcdp over the last few days and it was the worst experience I have had with cards, maybe ever.

I was more excited than a kid on Christmas. This is my favorite product each year, and this is the most I have ever ripped at one time. What a great time this was going to be. I saw some great breaks happening and it appeared that color was flying out everywhere.

I got my cases and started to rip. The first case was pretty bad, two blue ref autos, nothing else to speak about.
The next case was boring as was the four after that.....

Well, here was the damage. These are the BEST cards I pulled.

Orange Autos
Ryan burr usa
chevez clarke usa

GOld Autos
zack green usa
cole billingsley usa
deck mcguire

Red REfs
allen craig
Timmy lopes usa

Orange Refs
Matt lipka

GOld refs
Stephen strasburg
Domonic Brown
Tyrell jenkins

(1) manny machado ref auto - no other machados

Printing plates - ZERO
Superfractors - ZERO

That's it. Seriously not another card of note even worth typing out.

I wanted to puke when I was done. $5600 worth of wax and I think I will be LUCKY to get 1/2 my money back. I completely realize that ripping wax is a gamble, but I never invisioned getting absolutely crushed like. I have ripped 5 cases of past BCDP cases and have either broken even or close to it each time.

I am seriously considering bailing out of this hobby after this. I have an unbelievabley sour taste in my mouth.

Rant over.....

And I am still sick to my stomach.

All of my autos and parallels are on ebay and are ending tommorow night.

skrip

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Matt... I'm sorry for your loss, but you said it yourself. Ripping is a risk. Sometimes you pull the Strasburg superfractor, sometimes you get nada. You got nada.

If you can't afford a loss, you shouldn't be buying at all.

Trust me, I've bought cases and look at the damage and realize that I've lost 50-75% of what I bought it for... but you're spending money on the risk of making a lot more. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. If opening this stuff was a slam dunk moneymaker, everyone would do it.

I suspect the rest of the posts will echo my sentiments. I'm sorry, but ripping wax IS A GAMBLE.

 

[TBTwinsFan]

I don't have the budget for cases, most of the time hobby boxes... usually when I round the money up to pick one up, I score something somewhat decent... today... I also hit nada.

 

[ballerskrip]

Matt... I'm sorry for your loss, but you said it yourself. Ripping is a risk. Sometimes you pull the Strasburg superfractor, sometimes you get nada. You got nada.

If you can't afford a loss, you shouldn't be buying at all.

Trust me, I've bought cases and look at the damage and realize that I've lost 50-75% of what I bought it for... but you're spending money on the risk of making a lot more. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. If opening this stuff was a slam dunk moneymaker, everyone would do it.

I suspect the rest of the posts will echo my sentiments. I'm sorry, but ripping wax IS A GAMBLE.

Jeff, I agree 100% and was fully aware of the risk. I never ripped them thinking I was going to even make money. If I lost 10-15% I could swallow that and say it was worth the fun of ripping. It was so bloody bad that I have a tough time swallowing it.

To repeat, I understand it was a risk, and I am not looking for pity. Please, everyone reading this, I am not looking for your pity. I am just passing along my experience and what I am currently thinking about the hobby, etc.

skrip

 

[schmidtfan20]

Draft has always been a big risk, you catch of bad streak of colored refractors and hit the wrong players
then you are done. It really does appear that there are some bad cases out there, you could of hit a
run of that. The plus of picking up cases prior to release is that you get a good price, the negative is
you can't see where the good stuff is coming from...sometimes early cases are hot, sometimes later
on, sometimes retail. Remember the guy who opened 25 cases of Ginter and didn't get one Stras??

Its chrome, sit on it and maybe someone will get hot.

Good Luck
Kevin

 

[ballerskrip]

Draft has always been a big risk, you catch of bad streak of colored refractors and hit the wrong players
then you are done. It really does appear that there are some bad cases out there, you could of hit a
run of that. The plus of picking up cases prior to release is that you get a good price, the negative is
you can't see where the good stuff is coming from...sometimes early cases are hot, sometimes later
on, sometimes retail. Remember the guy who opened 25 cases of Ginter and didn't get one Stras??

Its chrome, sit on it and maybe someone will get hot.

Good Luck
Kevin

Agreed on all fronts. It was even more a kick in the nuts with a buddy texting me his 2-3 gold/orange autos per case as well. ehhhhhhh

skrip

 

[pigskincardboard]

Matt... I'm sorry for your loss, but you said it yourself. Ripping is a risk. Sometimes you pull the Strasburg superfractor, sometimes you get nada. You got nada.

If you can't afford a loss, you shouldn't be buying at all.

Trust me, I've bought cases and look at the damage and realize that I've lost 50-75% of what I bought it for... but you're spending money on the risk of making a lot more. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. If opening this stuff was a slam dunk moneymaker, everyone would do it.

I suspect the rest of the posts will echo my sentiments. I'm sorry, but ripping wax IS A GAMBLE.

Jeff, I agree 100% and was fully aware of the risk. I never ripped them thinking I was going to even make money. If I lost 10-15% I could swallow that and say it was worth the fun of ripping. It was so bloody bad that I have a tough time swallowing it.

To repeat, I understand it was a risk, and I am not looking for pity. Please, everyone reading this, I am not looking for your pity. I am just passing along my experience and what I am currently thinking about the hobby, etc.

skrip

Matt, that is how you should feel.

People that say "Risk" have no idea how to do math. At 8-10 cases, your risk should be negated. Even if you pull a 600 card out of that lot, you're still getting screwed. You should be getting like a 95% shot of getting within 10% of expected value per case.

To repeat, you should not have to buy 50 cases to negate risk. If that's the case, they're screwing the collation.

Topps has never been able to get the collation thing right. They continue to defy the odds on every product they make.

I would LOVE to see the math they're using to collate the cards.

 

[ballerskrip]

Matt... I'm sorry for your loss, but you said it yourself. Ripping is a risk. Sometimes you pull the Strasburg superfractor, sometimes you get nada. You got nada.

If you can't afford a loss, you shouldn't be buying at all.

Trust me, I've bought cases and look at the damage and realize that I've lost 50-75% of what I bought it for... but you're spending money on the risk of making a lot more. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. If opening this stuff was a slam dunk moneymaker, everyone would do it.

I suspect the rest of the posts will echo my sentiments. I'm sorry, but ripping wax IS A GAMBLE.

Jeff, I agree 100% and was fully aware of the risk. I never ripped them thinking I was going to even make money. If I lost 10-15% I could swallow that and say it was worth the fun of ripping. It was so bloody bad that I have a tough time swallowing it.

To repeat, I understand it was a risk, and I am not looking for pity. Please, everyone reading this, I am not looking for your pity. I am just passing along my experience and what I am currently thinking about the hobby, etc.

skrip

Matt, that is how you should feel.

People that say "Risk" have no idea how to do math. At 8-10 cases, your risk should be negated. Even if you pull a 600 card out of that lot, you're still getting screwed. You should be getting like a 95% shot of getting within 10% of expected value per case.

To repeat, you should not have to buy 50 cases to negate risk. If that's the case, they're screwing the collation.

Topps has never been able to get the collation thing right. They continue to defy the odds on every product they make.

I would LOVE to see the math they're using to collate the cards.

Honestly this was my thinking. My thought was that the more cases that I bought, the better my odds were of getting within 10-15% of my investment. Obviously that wasn't the case.

skrip

 

[bballcardkid]

Matt, I feel for you bud. Examples like yours are why my case is staying sealed. I would be soooo pissed if I got those results from that much cash. That's precisely why I don't bust, to prevent me from going berserk.

 

[schmidtfan20]

Matt... I'm sorry for your loss, but you said it yourself. Ripping is a risk. Sometimes you pull the Strasburg superfractor, sometimes you get nada. You got nada.

If you can't afford a loss, you shouldn't be buying at all.

Trust me, I've bought cases and look at the damage and realize that I've lost 50-75% of what I bought it for... but you're spending money on the risk of making a lot more. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't. If opening this stuff was a slam dunk moneymaker, everyone would do it.

I suspect the rest of the posts will echo my sentiments. I'm sorry, but ripping wax IS A GAMBLE.

Jeff, I agree 100% and was fully aware of the risk. I never ripped them thinking I was going to even make money. If I lost 10-15% I could swallow that and say it was worth the fun of ripping. It was so bloody bad that I have a tough time swallowing it.

To repeat, I understand it was a risk, and I am not looking for pity. Please, everyone reading this, I am not looking for your pity. I am just passing along my experience and what I am currently thinking about the hobby, etc.

skrip

Matt, that is how you should feel.

People that say "Risk" have no idea how to do math. At 8-10 cases, your risk should be negated. Even if you pull a 600 card out of that lot, you're still getting screwed. You should be getting like a 95% shot of getting within 10% of expected value per case.

To repeat, you should not have to buy 50 cases to negate risk. If that's the case, they're screwing the collation.

Topps has never been able to get the collation thing right. They continue to defy the odds on every product they make.

I would LOVE to see the math they're using to collate the cards.

what? Except you don't get to go down to the factory and pick out 8 cases in a row. There are tons of cases that
will not make even half you money back on. Who is to say you get all of those cases? Any pull ratio harder to pull
than 1:24 isn't guarnteed at all. That is why topps says across the entire print run. Haven't we learned anything
from the TERRIBLE coallation this year that topps has had? 1 pack, risk, 100 cases, risk. Remember its topps!!

 

[Zymco]

Know that feeling which is why I try and stay away from putting myself in that situation. I know you have killed it before and you will kill it again. Just the luck of the draw this time, Matt. Hopefully something bounces your way quickly to forget about the rough case.

 

[ChasHawk]

Sorry Matt. You got screwed royally like many others have with ****** cases of Draft.

Anybody who says you didn't get screwed over by piss poor collation is either a topps schill, or doesn't know case breaking.

Ask Andrew. His cases were absolute **** as well.

 

[tommyfro21]

I have gone back and forth about whether to bust or sell my 5 cases of BDP coming in soon. This thread makes me more scared than ever before. I guess the best thing I can do is watch how others do busting their cases from the same seller that I bought mine from on eBay. If they do good, then maybe there is hope for me.

I still may wait a little while before busting or selling them, just so I can make a good decision on what to do with them. The OP's scenario has been my biggest fear buying BDP this year. I've never bought as many cases as I have this year.

And I, too, think I would throw up if that is all I pulled. That would be a sick feeling that would stay for a while for sure.

 

[schmidtfan20]

Sorry Matt. You got screwed royally like many others have with shatty cases of Draft.

Anybody who says you didn't get screwed over by piss poor collation is either a topps schill, or doesn't know case breaking.

Ask Andrew. His cases were absolute shat as well.

Andrew mentioned something about certain case numbers being garbage, any truth to that?

 

[brouthercard]

10-15% loss?

Welcome to the real world.

Across the board, at cost, bowman draft is one of the best products to rip and flip, or even rip and hold, in baseball.

Exquisite basketball and the Cup hockey can almost get you that return.

But for virtually EVERY SINGLE OTHER PRODUCT, you are looking at 30-50% back as an average return, and 60% return as a VERY GOOD product to rip, which usually results in case prices going up to equilibrate back to a 50% or less return.

You've been spoiled by bowman draft for a long time.

Just be glad you can even afford to crack a single case.

You're sounding too much like a professional athlete here, holding out for more money so you can "keep food on the table".

I haven't had the best 2010 myself, but 2009 really kicked major arse for me.

I'm looking forward to 2011, and I will continue to crack, cause I love this hobby.

 

[JEA2880]

All of my autos and parallels are on ebay and are ending tommorow night.

skrip

What's your ebay ID? I don't see anything up.

Get those bulk player lots up there fast!

 

[All The Hype]

Sorry about your luck, but thanks for sharing. Definitely sucks when you get kicked in the nuts badly by wax, but that's part of the risk.

I've done about 6 cases in the last three years (usually of draft) and I've really only had one time when there was good return, and that was because the live discount cut the case cost by 30%. One of the other ones was pretty good, and the other 4 were basically terrible, with very little return.

I'm no expert on case breaking because I don't do it all that often, but my experience seems pretty normal. I would guess about a third of the cases will be pretty good (very little loss or even a profit), and the rest will be bigger losses.

 

[noaskiecards]

Scrip,

It is important to remember this transaction as a sunk cost....It is a gamble and the money is gone....It shouldn't effect the way you feel about your prospect collection...You will still make money on that and don't try to cancel it out with the money you lost from the case...Think of it like you made an investment in the market and took a hit and will become much wiser from your error...In future years, busting 2 or 3 cases and seeing how you do may be the best way and then subsequently busting more if the losses are lower on the first few..

You will make a lot of money come spring training/may/june on your prospect cards and you have for many years as I have observed...Don't let this experience take that away...There was no skill or reading up on scouting reports on busting the cases...It was a casino experience and it shouldn't hurt your prospecting side of the hobby....

If i go to a casino and lose $1000, I'll be upset but it won't make me feel worse when I make $20 or $50 or $100 on a prospect flip....You have to remember it was just a gamble and it's something you'll use to be wiser in the future...

Keep on prospecting my friend, time heals all wounds...

 

[ballerskrip]

All of my autos and parallels are on ebay and are ending tommorow night.

skrip

What's your ebay ID? I don't see anything up.

Get those bulk player lots up there fast!

Fixed

 

[Jaypers]

I did 3 cases of my own, and my results were just as shatty as yours, Matt.

In fact I don't even want to waste time typing it all out, that's how bad it was.

Going on nearly 25 years of ripping wax and not once pulling a big card.

Wax is my nemesis.