Some bad news for Topps Chrome Baseball...pack odds

[Bob Loblaw]

WOW. that is a concern. Alarming news! Especially for someone who purchased 60 cases of Bowman draft to rip. not good.

thanks for sharing the news with everyone.

Bowman Draft is a bit of a different animal.


It would be much harder to over produce.

Not really.

yes it is


Fewer cheap autograph subjects to pick from, especially if you want to have a well rounded base checklist and a decent 2011 bowman line.

There are plenty of cheap autograph subjects to put in.

Don't you guys get it?

TOPPS IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN (for the most part - yeah, UD/Panini may make one product, but collectors have $ to spare since they're not constistnely putting out product). WHATEVER THEY PRODUCE WILL SELL. They don't care if they have a good or poor checklist. It'll sell!

 

[js0000001]

[quote="Jeff N.":7peu5xxq]

WOW. that is a concern. Alarming news! Especially for someone who purchased 60 cases of Bowman draft to rip. not good.

thanks for sharing the news with everyone.

Bowman Draft is a bit of a different animal.


It would be much harder to over produce.

Not really.

yes it is


Fewer cheap autograph subjects to pick from, especially if you want to have a well rounded base checklist and a decent 2011 bowman line.

There are plenty of cheap autograph subjects to put in.

Don't you guys get it?

TOPPS IS THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN (for the most part - yeah, UD/Panini may make one product, but collectors have $ to spare since they're not constistnely putting out product). WHATEVER THEY PRODUCE WILL SELL. They don't care if they have a good or poor checklist. It'll sell![/quote:7peu5xxq]

Even that T206 junk?

 

[gocubsgo]

Autographed Rookies
Standard: 1:20
Refractor: 1:95
Blue: 1:238
Gold: 1:941
Red: 1:1,881
SuperFractor: 1:44,314
Plates: 1:11,078

These auto odds don't add up to even 2 autos per box

You have 288 packs per case and based these odds would pull the following number of autographs per case.....

Base = 14.4
Refractor = 3.3
Blues = 1.2
Golds/Red/Super/Plates = .5

Total = 19.1 when you should be pulling 24 autos. I sure hope everyone isn't short 5 autos per case or this will be even worse.

 

[matchpenalty]

Band B when you guys going to be busting all those cases? I think you will hit more color than on what wrapper odds say. I expected Topps to be smart and put much worse odds on wrapper to get all the missing hit babies off that bandwagon. Look forward to seeing your guys breakdown after the break.

 

[gocubsgo]

Band B when you guys going to be busting all those cases? I think you will hit more color than on what wrapper odds say. I expected Topps to be smart and put much worse odds on wrapper to get all the missing hit babies off that bandwagon. Look forward to seeing your guys breakdown after the break.

I wish this was the case, but the odds are usually dead on. Topps puts them on the pack for NPN legal reasons so can't just make them up.

 

[cmnkb8]

Autographed Rookies
Standard: 1:20
Refractor: 1:95
Blue: 1:238
Gold: 1:941
Red: 1:1,881
SuperFractor: 1:44,314
Plates: 1:11,078

These auto odds don't add up to even 2 autos per box

You have 288 packs per case and based these odds would pull the following number of autographs per case.....

Base = 14.4
Refractor = 3.3
Blues = 1.2
Golds/Red/Super/Plates = .5

Total = 19.1 when you should be pulling 24 autos. I sure hope everyone isn't short 5 autos per case or this will be even worse.

Guess the CS dept at topps is going to be overwhelmed with requests for reimbursement of the missing hits after this goes live...

 

[ibuytigerwoods]

That is what phone representatives are for. To handle complaints and disgruntled customers. The true decision makers don't give a rats world about the customer. Its all about the mighty dollar. All Topps cares about is selling product, and making money. not who opens it, or who gets what.

 

[GAbballplayer148]

Autographed Rookies
Standard: 1:20
Refractor: 1:95
Blue: 1:238
Gold: 1:941
Red: 1:1,881
SuperFractor: 1:44,314
Plates: 1:11,078

These auto odds don't add up to even 2 autos per box

You have 288 packs per case and based these odds would pull the following number of autographs per case.....

Base = 14.4
Refractor = 3.3
Blues = 1.2
Golds/Red/Super/Plates = .5

Total = 19.1 when you should be pulling 24 autos. I sure hope everyone isn't short 5 autos per case or this will be even worse.

Do you know the odds foe the USA auto's?

 

[gocubsgo]

Autographed Rookies
Standard: 1:20
Refractor: 1:95
Blue: 1:238
Gold: 1:941
Red: 1:1,881
SuperFractor: 1:44,314
Plates: 1:11,078

These auto odds don't add up to even 2 autos per box

You have 288 packs per case and based these odds would pull the following number of autographs per case.....

Base = 14.4
Refractor = 3.3
Blues = 1.2
Golds/Red/Super/Plates = .5

Total = 19.1 when you should be pulling 24 autos. I sure hope everyone isn't short 5 autos per case or this will be even worse.

Do you know the odds foe the USA auto's?

1 in 287 so those still look like one per case.

 

[phillyfan0417]

That is what phone representatives are for. To handle complaints and disgruntled customers. The true decision makers don't give a rats world about the customer. Its all about the mighty dollar. All Topps cares about is selling product, and making money. not who opens it, or who gets what.

Isnt that the only thing you care about as well? Isnt that what anyone busting this product in bulk cares about?


Topps sells the product and you have the right not to buy it. Topps doesnt and probably shouldn't care about the secondary market and who is making what when their product pretty much always sells out.

 

[ibuytigerwoods]

not sure if anyone is debating the obvious phillyfan. I know im not.

 

[phillyfan0417]

not sure if anyone is debating the obvious phillyfan. I know im not.

Understood. This comes down to one thing and one thing only for me, every time a new product is coming out and its discussed here, there always seems to be anger and those who seem to be the most vocal talk about how bad topps is as they pre order case after case. You want to send a message, dont buy...

 

[brentandbecca]

Based on Early breaks from some the odds hold. But it takes 5 cases to make 1 heritage set and they are numbered to 1961 and only 50 cards.
Sets aren't currently bringing $100. They should move up. Can't believe they made more of this than say a Heritage.

 

[brentandbecca]

I don't know how today it more clearly phillyfan.
I love Topps and their products.
Period.
I am disappointed in this product as it is not what was sold to me and not as the past releases I am used to. Topps may not care about the secondary market but it is just as big if not bigger than primary. And in any business you should take care of your customers and inform them the facts.

I do not come on here and complain. I try to lay out facts i have learned and then give my opinion but some like to argue or know it all. I am in a unique position to share early info and showcase what an average break may deliver which in turn could help people. In this case I hope I shows they should stick to singles rather than boxes or cases. This is one of those products that isn't playing out to what we thought we knew or what was in the past. Take it or leave it. It obviously was thought of to be great on paper due to the orders. But now due to Strasburg and other factors discussed. It is not.
Preorders are a fact of life in the business. If not for all of us for the distributors. I enjoy Topps products and will continue. Next year I will know not to buy Chrome. But if I had been told it was like this I wouldn't have bought this year.

Its like prebuying anything. If you don't get what was advertised then you can be disappointed or even return the merch.

 

[phillyfan0417]

I don't know how today it more clearly phillyfan.
I love Topps and their products.
Period.
I am disappointed in this product as it is not what was sold to me and not as the past releases I am used to. Topps may not care about the secondary market but it is just as big if not bigger than primary. And in any business you should take care of your customers and inform them the facts.

I do not come on here and complain. I try to lay out facts i have learned and then give my opinion but some like to argue or know it all. I am in a unique position to share early info and showcase what an average break may deliver which in turn could help people. In this case I hope I shows they should stick to singles rather than boxes or cases. This is one of those products that isn't playing out to what we thought we knew or what was in the past. Take it or leave it. It obviously was thought of to be great on paper due to the orders. But now due to Strasburg and other factors discussed. It is not.
Preorders are a fact of life in the business. If not for all of us for the distributors. I enjoy Topps products and will continue. Next year I will know not to buy Chrome. But if I had been told it was like this I wouldn't have bought this year.

Its like prebuying anything. If you don't get what was advertised then you can be disappointed or even return the merch.

I'm speaking generally bud, I didnt even have you in mind when I typed. I understand the disappointment and I'm sure it will make you take a long look before the next purchase.

 

[brentandbecca]

Just FYI.
Due to breaking this volume I won't be around much as I will be busy. That's one thing that has kept me away in the past and the fact the when info is shared it seems to cause these back and forth threads which is counterproductive.
To me if you don't like it or aren't buying say that but no need to rub in over and again.
We are a community that share common interest and should work together and wish the best for one another. Period.

I will post pics and updates on twitter and try to here too.



Not worried about Draft really. Didn't animal. But BC and Update will see bumps for sure.

 

[rico08]

Just FYI.
Due to breaking this volume I won't be around much as I will be busy. That's one thing that has kept me away in the past and the fact the when info is shared it seems to cause these back and forth threads which is counterproductive.
To me if you don't like it or aren't buying say that but no need to rub in over and again.
We are a community that share common interest and should work together and wish the best for one another. Period.

I will post pics and updates on twitter and try to here too.



Not worried about Draft really. Didn't animal. But BC and Update will see bumps for sure.

B&B I love that you're part of the board and early product information is always helpful. Good luck on the breaks, hopefully Topps puts out something worth moving in our shop!

 

[WJCIII]

For me it's very simple. If Topps changes the print run, odds, etc. after people have bought their cases based on info they released then they are to blame. If people order their cases prior to this info and with a bunch of "TBD" in the checklist then you get what you get.

 

[brentandbecca]

Yes I agree. TbD is different.

And we can always wait to order on those if we choose.
For me I already know I will be ordering and my price is same day 1 of prebuy as it is day 1 of release and I can cancel orders just never had to and wouldn't want to dump back as it was my choice. Just wouldn't have bought if this was all if this was all info we had long ago.

 

[boxbreaker]

For me it's very simple. If Topps changes the print run, odds, etc. after people have bought their cases based on info they released then they are to blame. If people order their cases prior to this info and with a bunch of "TBD" in the checklist then you get what you get.

after all the "don't blame topps posts", this is the issue for me. i buy cases of products that look good based on the sales sheet and checklist just like every other product i buy. topps promised one thing and are delivering another. for those that don't know it is called "bait and swich". i would not have purchased under the additional auto checklist that was put forth much after the sales sheet and 25 auto list. i am not ever going to be rich or probably even make money busting topps product, it is a hobby that i like. one more of these kind of crappy screw you decisions and i will have to move on.

i bought a few cases and would feel the exact same if i bought 100 cases or 1 box.

thanks.