bobthewondercat77
Member
Regarding the prospect market as a whole:
I agree that it is due for a crash, and I think the main reason is the lack of collectors that will buy at top dollar. Even at this point, a lot of high-dollar prospect cards get bought/sold/traded around by prospectors... as the card increases in value, profits are made along the way... but then as the inevitable decrease begins, many of the same folks are taking the losses. In the end it's quite close to a zero-sum game, and ends up being more of a "hobby" than a "business" after all.
It is also important to keep in mind that the prospecting world is quite small: just a few thousand people willing to invest significant amounts of money, and limited venues for transactions. Although Prospect Rush is not a big enough repack product to influence the market, the combination of all the repack products this year (and there are certainly more to come as it appears to be a successful model for the repackers) is almost certainly enough to influence the market.
This enhances the "bubble" effect in prospecting. However, just like bubbles in the stock market, housing market, etc., bubbles can last for quite some time, and it is impossible to know with much certainty when the top, or bottom, of the market has been reached. Additionally, confidence in the market is one of the most significant factors sustaining the bubble, so those with serious skin in the game have good reason to promote optimism.
I agree that it is due for a crash, and I think the main reason is the lack of collectors that will buy at top dollar. Even at this point, a lot of high-dollar prospect cards get bought/sold/traded around by prospectors... as the card increases in value, profits are made along the way... but then as the inevitable decrease begins, many of the same folks are taking the losses. In the end it's quite close to a zero-sum game, and ends up being more of a "hobby" than a "business" after all.
It is also important to keep in mind that the prospecting world is quite small: just a few thousand people willing to invest significant amounts of money, and limited venues for transactions. Although Prospect Rush is not a big enough repack product to influence the market, the combination of all the repack products this year (and there are certainly more to come as it appears to be a successful model for the repackers) is almost certainly enough to influence the market.
This enhances the "bubble" effect in prospecting. However, just like bubbles in the stock market, housing market, etc., bubbles can last for quite some time, and it is impossible to know with much certainty when the top, or bottom, of the market has been reached. Additionally, confidence in the market is one of the most significant factors sustaining the bubble, so those with serious skin in the game have good reason to promote optimism.