Value Boxes keep on giving

[Buynhisellnlow]

It's RANDOM. THere was just as good of a chance of them being in HOBBY boxes. Jesus Christ, kid. Get over it. You're like a psycho ex-girlfriend.

Doesn't this seem unlikely from a statistical standpoint? What are you basing your stance on? With there being so much fewer of these hobby packs in the retail value boxes, wouldn't it be highly unlikely for the density of top-tier cards to have been pulled that have been pulled?

Also, the hit ratio seems to be MUCH higher in the value boxes compared to hobby. This assertion is reinforced by the posters on this board and others who have outlined what they have pulled from opening 100+ value boxes - their rates of pulling inserts were SIGNIFICANTLY higher than what odds would state they should have pulled.

So, I would ask how you know it is random. The sample data we have available, although not all-inclusive, would seem to suggest other wise. However, I may be missing something and am open to the possibility of it being random but I would like to know what you use to support this assertion.

 

[A_Pharis]

You're missing the fact that a lot more of these get busted than reported. I've busted close to 50 of these things maybe only reporting 10% of that. I would say that the quantity is way more than anyone has even considered. It's just that when good hits come out of boxes like this, they tend to stand out more.
You all are just looking for a conspiracy to blame TOpps, because you think they OWE people that break a certain quantity "top tier" hits.

Give me a freaking break.

 

[ChasHawk]

You're missing the fact that a lot more of these get busted than reported. I've busted close to 50 of these things maybe only reporting 10% of that. I would say that the quantity is way more than anyone has even considered. It's just that when good hits come out of boxes like this, they tend to stand out more.
You all are just looking for a conspiracy to blame TOpps, because you think they OWE people that break a certain quantity "top tier" hits.

Give me a freaking break.

This.

I'm willing to guess 100s or 1,000s of these have been busted by people that don't use message boards, or interact in the hobby in any way.

It's funny, but we tend to think that we are the hobby.

 

[Buynhisellnlow]

You're missing the fact that a lot more of these get busted than reported. I've busted close to 50 of these things maybe only reporting 10% of that. I would say that the quantity is way more than anyone has even considered. It's just that when good hits come out of boxes like this, they tend to stand out more.
You all are just looking for a conspiracy to blame TOpps, because you think they OWE people that break a certain quantity "top tier" hits.

Give me a freaking break.

What did I say that even remotely gave you the impression that I think Topps owes anyone anything? If anything, I think it would be smart of them to strengthen their standings within the retail outlet sectors.

I agree that the impression of overall hit ratio is skewed due to reporting bias (although I would contend that the aggregate numbers from the layout reports from those who have opened 100+ value boxes gives a decent snapshot sample) but let's look at absolute quantity.

There is one pack of Bowman Chrome Hobby per value box right?

There are 18 packs per Hobby Bowman Chrome Box and 216 packs per Hobby Case of Bowman Chrome.

On a large scale basis, do you believe that 18 value boxes produce the same, more or less hits compared to a Hobby box of bowman chrome and do you believe that 216 value boxes would have the same average return as a hobby case of Bowman Chrome?

I'll go more into the numbers in a bit but instead of attempting to belittle and divert the subject with no facts to substantiate your position, please try to constructively contribute to the discussion with a logical, thought out rebuttal / input.

 

[George_Calfas]

Outside of assumptions of how many good or bad boxes have been busted is the member here whom cracked 400ish of these. Using this sample size were this members results/odds better, worse, or similar to full hobby boxes/cases?

 

[ChasHawk]

Outside of assumptions of how many good or bad boxes have been busted is the member here whom cracked 400ish of these. Using this sample size were this members results/odds better, worse, or similar to full hobby boxes/cases?

It seemed to me from his list of hits that he maybe did a little better than what 2 cases would have netted him.

It's also about hitting the right players too, not just hitting color.

 

[Sjrmn91]

Outside of assumptions of how many good or bad boxes have been busted is the member here whom cracked 400ish of these. Using this sample size were this members results/odds better, worse, or similar to full hobby boxes/cases?

I believe a case like this was analyzed by someone on here already and the results were nearly identical to opening hobby boxes.

I'm a smaller sample size, but I opened 10 and didn't get so much as a refractor.

 

[Buynhisellnlow]

Outside of assumptions of how many good or bad boxes have been busted is the member here whom cracked 400ish of these. Using this sample size were this members results/odds better, worse, or similar to full hobby boxes/cases?

It seemed to me from his list of hits that he maybe did a little better than what 2 cases would have netted him.

It's also about hitting the right players too, not just hitting color.

No, that is not the question that I am wondering.

I am just wondering from a purely statistical basis, are a dis-proportionate amount of hits coming from the value boxes?

 

[muskiesfan]

Outside of assumptions of how many good or bad boxes have been busted is the member here whom cracked 400ish of these. Using this sample size were this members results/odds better, worse, or similar to full hobby boxes/cases?

I believe a case like this was analyzed by someone on here already and the results were nearly identical to opening hobby boxes.

I'm a smaller sample size, but I opened 10 and didn't get so much as a refractor.

I opened around 10 of these as well. I always did better on the Update packs than the Chrome packs. I did hit a Trey McNutt gold refractor auto and a Tyler Skaggs refractor from the Chrome packs, but I still better on the Update packs.

 

[allstarauction]

The key thing that everyone is missing on these "analysis" is that the Topps Update packs have value as well. There is a plenty of value in those if you are willing to put in the effort to organize and sort. You will have people argue about labor, and my time is worth blah blah blah. It is a hobby, if you do this as your job that is a different story, but for most of us on here it's a hobby and something we do in our spare time.

I got $120 for 53 Cognac/Platinum Diamond Variations, I still have 20-25 left. I have sold 35 base Variations for another $140, that is $260, and I still have another $40-50 worth. So total is actually around $300

The Diamond parallel lots, pulled around 1,200 combined of these, they range from $.15-.25 each in big lots, if you take the time and sort them and post good descriptions you will get the higher end. That is $300

Topps Gold, I pulled around 250, they sell for around $.40 each in big lots, that is $100

Kimball Champion, I pulled around 625 of these, sets of 50 go for $15-20, at minimum I have 6 sets at $15 each, that is $90, plus another $60 from the other 325. That is $150

Topps 60 Inserts, I pulled around 600 of these, so 4 sets and 400 extras, Sets at $15 each and the extra 400 would break down to about $60. That is $120

Diamond Duos, I pulled around 300, so figure at least 5 sets, and another 150 spare. That is $60 total

The rookie lots, Moustakas I received $.50 for, Hosmer Rookie Debut (not his true RC) I got $.75 each for, I averaged $1.25 each for the Trout's I sold, $1 each for Jacob Turner's I sold, $.75 each for the Belt Rookie Debut's I sold, $.50 each for the Rizzo's I sold. There is $120 in the 5-6 players, for partial quantities of what I pulled. The remaining Ackley's, Hosmer's, Trout, Pineda, Goldschmidt's and other notable rookies is at least $300.

And for the remaining 15,000 cards, I can break these down into 500 count team lots and easily average $10 a team, so $300.

That is $1,750 minimum for just the low end Topps Update, not counting the auto/jersey/hope blue hits. My original numbers only had Topps Update for $700 for the inserts/variations, and I said $1000 for all of the Chrome Base, inserts, and Topps Update base. I have that covered in just Update.

The haters will keep saying "good luck" achieving these prices, and that they are not worth it, but there are the actual sale prices backing up the numbers.

 

[Buynhisellnlow]

The key thing that everyone is missing on these "analysis" is that the Topps Update packs have value as well.

There must be several different lines of questions going on in this thread.

I, for one, wasn't commenting on the overall value but on the possibility of statistical abnormalities with the hit ratios from the Bowman Chrome packs. I could see why others though would more concerned with the value proposition aspect of the overall product.

 

[allstarauction]

The key thing that everyone is missing on these "analysis" is that the Topps Update packs have value as well.

There must be several different lines of questions going on in this thread.

I, for one, wasn't commenting on the overall value but on the possibility of statistical abnormalities with the hit ratios from the Bowman Chrome packs. I could see why others though would more concerned with the value proposition aspect of the overall product.

My post wasn't directed at anyone, I am just further along in my organizing and there was a lot of debate whether it was worth opening in bulk.

Again though, my numbers are based on around $12.40 a box and you were getting close to double the codes, not $16-17 a box they are going for now.

Based just on the numbers they are not worth $16-17 a box. You would be paying somewhere around $3,000 now for 28 boxes of chrome, I believe $3K would land you around 40 boxes of chrome.

Around $14, or less, a Value Box, if you opened in bulk, would make them more valuable than just opening Chrome Hobby boxes.

 

[Pine Tar]

I agree with the post above me about Wal Mart caring about the products and people "going the extra mile" for them. The company I work for is one of the many suppliers of produce for Wal-Mart. If there is a problem, rather it be bad produce, sizing, paperwork issue, not following their rules etc., a call goes out and gets back to us and we fix it. Needless to say they always get the freshest. You treat your bigger customers a little better.

Hopefully you're not in the midwest. Our Wally had the quit swearing produce in town for about 6 months last year.

They are still the most expensive, even though the quality has gotten better.

Take you local ads to the wally world and they will price match.....there over-priced produce.

 

[Pine Tar]

bought a value box last night I got


NOTHING to speak of........oh thread is back on track :lol:
For now anyway

 

[ChasHawk]

I agree with the post above me about Wal Mart caring about the products and people "going the extra mile" for them. The company I work for is one of the many suppliers of produce for Wal-Mart. If there is a problem, rather it be bad produce, sizing, paperwork issue, not following their rules etc., a call goes out and gets back to us and we fix it. Needless to say they always get the freshest. You treat your bigger customers a little better.

Hopefully you're not in the midwest. Our Wally had the quit swearing produce in town for about 6 months last year.

They are still the most expensive, even though the quality has gotten better.

Take you local ads to the wally world and they will price match.....there over-priced produce.

We don't shop there without price-matching... I am a master. You don't actually even have to take the ad.

 

[moxacaine]

Just found 3 at the leesburg,va Walmart 8)

 

[Russ S.]

Just found 3 at the leesburg,va Walmart 8)

GOOD LUCK KEN!!

I wonder if there any good hits from the boxes BO had in their store.
They had about 2 dozen or so.

 

[MartinFFcollector]

Just found 3 at the leesburg,va Walmart 8)

GOOD LUCK KEN!!

I wonder if there any good hits from the boxes BO had in their store.
They had about 2 dozen or so.

I'll post my results tomorrow as I have 20 of those boxes coming in from BO.

 

[moxacaine]

Just found 3 at the leesburg,va Walmart 8)

and 4 more at the lees burg target.

 

[Russ S.]

Just found 3 at the leesburg,va Walmart 8)

GOOD LUCK KEN!!

I wonder if there any good hits from the boxes BO had in their store.
They had about 2 dozen or so.

I'll post my results tomorrow as I have 20 of those boxes coming in from BO.

I'm predicting something BIG from those.
Wonder if they have any more.