KLaw Splits the 2014 Crop Into Tiers

[Jaypers]

With the college season just starting and all Division I schools getting underway by this weekend, weather permitting, it's time to at least revisit the top echelon of this year's draft class. Rather than re-ranking guys based on just a few games or a scrimmage, I've broken them down into tiers of first-round talents to orient you to the landscape of the first 20-25 names, followed by other names worth watching over the next few weeks as more high schools begin their schedules.

Tier 1

Carlos Rodon, LHP | NC State

You know you're a boss when you have your own tier. Rodon is far and away the best available player in this draft class, with a 70-grade fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and at least a 70 slider, a track record of missing bats, and a pretty good swing too. The Astros aren't guaranteed to take him first overall, but they did buy four season tickets down in Raleigh, so I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's in their mix.

Tier 2

Jeff Hoffman, RHP | East Carolina
Tyler Kolek, RHP | Shepherd (Texas) HS
Jacob Gatewood, SS | Clovis (Calif.) HS
Alex Jackson, C/3B | Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)

Right now, this looks like the decision set for teams drafting second or third -- with the obvious, enormous, I-can't-emphasize-this-enough caveat that it's February and teams won't even think about limiting themselves to just a few names until we get to mid-May. Hoffman has one of the best fastballs among college starters and will show the necessary secondary stuff, but until the Cape Cod League last summer he didn't have any real history of success.

Kolek is already massive at 6-foot-5 and roughly 250 pounds, but hit 100 mph last week with a better slider and curveball than he'd shown last summer; the Marlins pick second, and scouting director Stan Meek is a big fan of physical power arms like this. Gatewood is ahead of Jackson in the early going among prep bats; Gatewood has the power, but is now showing he can use the whole field instead of just trying to pull everything 500 feet, while Jackson appears to want to move off catcher, meaning his hit tool will have to carry him to stay in the top-five selections.

Tier 3

Tyler Beede, RHP | Vanderbilt
Sean Newcomb, LHP | Hartford
Erick Fedde, RHP | UNLV
Max Pentecost, C | Kennesaw State
Trea Turner, SS | NC State
Derek Fisher, OF | Virginia
Brady Aiken, LHP | Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Grant Holmes, RHP | Conway (S.C.) HS
Justus Sheffield, LHP | Tullahoma (Tenn.) HS

The six college players in this tier could all move up a tier with strong springs in which they address specific questions about their skill sets. Beede shows the stuff to be in the second tier but not the command, as does Newcomb, whereas Fedde has flashed that kind of stuff but needs to show it more consistently.

Pentecost -- no relation to Karsten Whitsun or Michael Mas -- looks like the best college position player in the draft, a true catcher with ability at the plate, standing out in a class with little catching at either the college or high school levels. He's a better bet for me than Turner, an 80 runner with no power and an unorthodox swing; or Fisher, the toolsiest college position player in the class who has to show better ability to hit. Turner may still be the highest drafted of the three, however, with the bankable run tool and the fact that he'll be seen extensively while playing behind Rodon every Friday night.

After Kolek, Holmes, Aiken and Sheffield are the cream of the rich high school pitching crop for now, but I don't think any leaps up into the top eight overall picks barring a velocity spike. Sheffield is the biggest variable among the three, whereas Aiken is the most polished and Holmes offers the least projection because he's already physically mature.

Tier 4

Matt Chapman, 3B/SS | Cal State Fullerton
Kyle Schwarber, C/1B | Indiana
Braxton Davidson, RF | T.C. Roberson HS (Asheville, N.C.)
Nick Gordon, SS/RHP | Olympia HS (Orlando, Fla.)
Touki Toussaint, RHP | Coral Springs (Fla.) Christian Academy
Alex Verdugo, RF/LHP | Sahuaro HS (Tucson, Ariz.)
Luis Ortiz, RHP | Sanger HS (Fresno, Calif.)
Mac Marshall, LHP | Parkview HS (Lilburn, Ga.)
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP | Sandalwood HS (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Jack Flaherty, RHP/3B | Harvard-Westlake School (Los Angeles)

Here's where it starts to open up, with probably a dozen other pitchers who could leap into the third or fourth tier with strong springs. That includes cold-weather prep kids such as right-handers Scott Blewitt (Baldwinsville, N.Y.) and Jake Godfrey (New Lenox, Ill.) who won't get going for another month and a half, or rising prospects such as Jacob Nix. It also includes a slew of college arms, including Florida State's Luke Weaver, Cal State Bakersfield's redshirt sophomore Austin Davis, Alabama's Spencer Turnbull (three above-average-to-plus pitches, but doesn't miss enough bats) and Cal Poly's Matt Imhof.

Of the names listed above, Chapman has impressed in the early going as a well-rounded player who can hit but doesn't blow you away with other tools. Schwarber can hit and has power, but can't catch and may be able to play only first base -- the Paul Konerko starter kit, if you like his bat.

Davidson can hit but has to play a corner, maybe even first base if you don't trust him in the outfield, which means he has to absolutely rake to be a top-20 selection, similar to Mississippi prep first baseman Bobby Bradley. Gordon showed up stronger this spring and looks better on both sides of the ball, still projecting better as a shortstop than on the mound. Among the prep arms here, the biggest riser so far is Reid-Foley, who was solid last summer on the showcase circuit but has taken a step forward so far this spring into likely first-rounder territory.

Tier 5 would be too big to try to capture here, but to give you a sense of what's in that group, it comprises college starters who may project as relievers in pro ball, such as TCU's Brandon Finnegan; power-before-hit bats, such as Cal State Fullerton's J.D. Davis; those additional prep arms I mentioned above, plus guys such as Derek Hill (Sacramento, Calif.) and Kodi Medeiros (Hilo, Hawaii); solid, modest-upside college bats such as Oregon State's Michael Conforto; and high school bats such as toolsy Monte Harrison (Lee's Summit, Mo.) and Marcus Wilson (California), as well as polished infielder Tate Blackman (Florida). I'd also throw Louisville reliever Nick Burdi in here, as well as San Diego State's Michael Cederoth, who was demoted to the bullpen this week after one start last weekend.

 

[bear0555]

Surprising to see Gatewood in Tier 2. Seems like Law is convinced his hit tool will be present and improved this spring. He also happens to only have All American cards, which is rare this year. I sold some of mine due to not knowing how the hit tool will be this year.

Turner looks to be a 4 tool shortstop, but I disagree that he has no power. I recall him with more XBHs last year than his freshman year and he was out a while last year. This is Billy Hamilton with less speed [80 on the 20-80 scale, Hamilton is off the charts], the ability to stick at shortstop and a ridiculous hit tool. I've read concerns about the bat but all he does is hit.

Sheffield seems too high to me. There are a few, maybe several players in the following tier I'd take over Sheffield. Hell, how does someone like Finnegan rank below Sheffield?

Anyway, it's always exciting to see how it all plays out.

 

[moxacaine]

I guess Keith Law does not realize that ECU is in Greenville and is over an hour away from Raleigh. lol

 

[bear0555]

Here is Kiley McDaniel's opinion on the same topic. Let's just say the variance is very large.

Draft Rankings: Tiers 1.0
Rodon holds onto the top spot		By Kiley McDaniel National Baseball Analyst Posted Feb 18, 2014 Share on twitter Share on facebook | More Sharing ServicesMore Kiley knows draft rankings are pointless this early in the process, so he broke out a tier system.
In the first draft of this list, I was going to make numbers 4 and 5 "BIG" and "DROP-OFF," but the scouts that read this don’t have as good a sense of humor as they think they do. I also considered a 10-year anniversary reminder of a cultural treasure but couldn't pull the trigger, though Dylan Cease did make the list. So, since I like to thumb my nose at tradition when it comes to the coverage of baseball, like to take shots at the powerful round numbers lobby (Big Round spokesman Charles Barkley declined comment) and I realized what a waste of time it is to rank more than a few prospects in order at this juncture, a tier system makes the most sense. The system has existed for awhile and applies better to sports where multiple draftees have immediate impact, but also works well for lists with a lot of uncertainty. I will updated you with a scouting notebook from the early season later today, but here’s a snapshot of where we stand now, with plenty of updates coming as the picture clears up. Click on each player's name to see previous content, including video on 47 of the 52 players listed. Also see the Rankings Index and July 2nd Index for previous similar articles along with my twitter feed for up to date news and analysis. Tier One (1-4) Description: This top tier has separated itself through strong summers and early spring performances. Rodon's velocity is down now (90-93, touching 94 mph) as it was at this time last year, while Hoffman's season debut was as good as his breakout Cape performance. I've been trumpeting Hoffman's upside since I saw him on the Cape and said there's a real chance he's Justin Verlander; now the track record is starting to accumulate. Kolek was in the high-90's in his debut while Turner was even better in his opening weekend. More than one scout I talked to said he thinks Turner still has a real shot to go ahead of Rodon; the internet perception of the slam dunk-ness of the order of these four is wildly overstated, particularly given how early it is. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina Trea Turner, SS, North Carolina State Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd HS (TX), TCU commit Tier Two (5-12) Description: These tiers are still in order, but I struggled with what order to put this tier in; none of these guys has earned top 10 pick status yet and you could literally put them in any order right now. I settled on Jackson at the top because his struggles with the bat this summer/fall may actually raise/clarify his stock. The belief was his bat was too advanced to spend time working on catching in the minors when he could be raking in the big leagues. The perception has changed enough that I could see him still going in the top 10, but now as a primary catcher. Gettys is the wildcard: the rest of this group can only move down from here but if scouts are convinced Gettys can hit, he has the upside to move to tier one. Alex Jackson, C/RF, Rancho Bernardo HS (CA), Oregon commit Braxton Davidson, 1B, T.C. Roberson HS (NC), North Carolina commit Derek Fisher, LF, Virginia Michael Gettys, CF, Gainesville HS (GA), Georgia commit Grant Holmes, RHP, Conway HS (SC), Florida commit Brandon Finnegan, LHP, TCU Luis Ortiz, RHP, Sanger HS (CA), Fresno State commit Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State Tier Three (13-21) Description: Some of these guys could work their way up a tier and may do it in less than a month. Gordon could be an above average everyday shortstop with big league bloodlines, Schwarber has 70 raw power and isn't a terrible catcher while Beede flashes frontline stuff though the command wanders. The rest of the group is tougher to imagine moving up, but are solidly in first round consideration. Nick Gordon, SS, Olympia HS (FL), Florida State commit Kyle Schwarber, C/1B, Indiana Luke Weaver, RHP, Florida State Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt Forrest Wall, 2B, Orangewood Christian HS (FL), North Carolina commit Chris Ellis, RHP, Ole Miss Derek Hill, CF, Elk Grove HS (CA), Oregon commit Cobi Johnson, RHP, Mitchell HS (FL), Florida State commit Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Waiakea HS (HI), Pepperdine commit Tier Four (22-29) Description: Down here the tiers get more diverse. Newcomb hasn't strung together many dominant outings but the 6'5/240 lefty was drawing Jon Lester comps when he was healthy; his season starts next week. Blewett is another big (6'6/210) northeast arm that came on late in fall and could take another step forward this spring. Fedde and Reid-Foley are power arms that regularly show two plus pitches with good size, but need to make progress with their feel this spring. Forbes is a personal favorite and projection play that could make a lot of money this spring while Verdugo is one of the safer bets in the prep class, with legit top 50 talent both ways. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford Alex Verdugo, OF/LHP, Sahuaro HS (AZ), Arizona State commit Brad Zimmer, RF, San Francisco Ti’quan Forbes, SS, Columbia HS (MS), Ole Miss commit Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Sandalwood HS (FL), Florida State commit Erick Fedde, RHP, UNLV Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU Scott Blewett, RHP, Baker HS (NY), St. John's commit Tier Five (30-37) Description: This is the fringe first round group, with a number of volatile arms. Toussaint, Freeland, Brink, Cederoth and Marshall have all shown flashes of high first round stuff but have had trouble putting it all together. Bouchard and Aiken are high school teammates that are both polished talents and safe bets to go in the top 50, with some buzz that Aiken has suitors in the middle of the first round. Sean Bouchard, 3B, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA), UCLA commit Mac Marshall, LHP, Parkview HS (GA), LSU commit Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (CA), UCLA commit Touki Toussaint, RHP, Coral Springs Christian HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit Jordan Brink, RHP, Fresno State Michael Cederoth, RHP, San Diego State Justus Sheffield, LHP, Tullahoma HS (TN), Vanderbilt commit Kyle Freeland, LHP, Evansville Tier Six (38-53) Description: I had to cut this list off somewhere, but it could easily include another 10-15 names that would vary team to team. Right now, prep talents are a little easier to put in this group given the higher upside, but more than a few college talents will emerge to this tier in the spring and price tags/poor springs will cause some prep talents to fall back. Burdi may be the most famous in this group as a reliever that's been over 100 mph multiple times while Cosart, the little brother of Astros RHP Jarred Cosart, is the least famous, though he recently took up pitching and is already up to 98 mph with an above average hook. Cease's stock had a roller coaster summer/fall, but he's regularly in the mid-to-upper 90's and has shown an above average breaking ball. Jakson Reetz, C, Norris HS (NE), Nebraska commit Turner Larkins, RHP, Martin HS (TX), Texas A&M commit Stone Garrett, CF, George Ranch HS (TX), Rice commit Keaton McKinney, RHP, Ankeny HS (IA), Arkansas commit Michael Chavis, 3B, Sprayberry HS (GA), Clemson commit Lane Thomas, CF, Bearden HS (TN), Tennessee commit Marcus Wilson, CF, Serra HS (CA), Arizona State commit Michael Conforto, LF/1B, Oregon State Jacob Gatewood, SS, Clovis HS (CA), USC commit Alex Blandino, 2B/3B, Stanford Dylan Cease, RHP, Milton HS (GA), Vanderbilt commit Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville Travis Jones, 3B/OF, Atascocita HS (TX), Texas commit Jake Cosart, RHP, Seminole State JC (FL) Evan Skoug, C, Libertyville HS (IL), TCU commit Foster Griffin, LHP, First Academy HS (FL), Ole Miss commit