My Top 50 Prospects

[All The Hype]

http://prospectforprofit.com/?p=664

I'm not a professional scout...just an 'internet resource scout', but I would love to hear opinions and spark some discussion. Thanks for the look.

 

[Jaypers]

Probably the most accurate list I've seen thus far. Well, until my Top 125 comes out next week. (joke)

A few comments.

1) Kinda surprised you have Moose that high. Great season yes, but home/road splits were pretty pronounced. He'd be a bit lower for me.
2) Britton - also a bit high. Easily the O's best pitcher, but just having an above-average sinker won't get you far in the Majors. Needs work on his other stuff.
3) Parker - high. Loving the reports I've seen from him post-surgery, but let's see him in action before we put him on a pedestal.
4) Ackley - low. His bat is ML ready, just needs to warm up to 2B. Still, he's being called the best college bat in years. He'd be in the 6-10 range for me.
5) Sanchez - low. Unlike Montero, this dude can catch. Has a bat that could rival his one day, too.

JMT's.

 

[All The Hype]

Probably the most accurate list I've seen thus far. Well, until my Top 125 comes out next week. (joke)

A few comments.

1) Kinda surprised you have Moose that high. Great season yes, but home/road splits were pretty pronounced. He'd be a bit lower for me.
2) Britton - also a bit high. Easily the O's best pitcher, but just having an above-average sinker won't get you far in the Majors. Needs work on his other stuff.
3) Parker - high. Loving the reports I've seen from him post-surgery, but let's see him in action before we put him on a pedestal.
4) Ackley - low. His bat is ML ready, just needs to warm up to 2B. Still, he's being called the best college bat in years. He'd be in the 6-10 range for me.
5) Sanchez - low. Unlike Montero, this dude can catch. Has a bat that could rival his one day, too.

JMT's.

Ha, I'll look forward to seeing the MOST accurate list next week then

1 For Mous, I had him that high because I see him as a guy who had a great year (and has performed well in the past) and is also ready to go this year. I gave slight bonus points to some guys who I saw as ready for the Majors, because all the question marks about their development no longer exist in the way they do for guys like Taillon or Machado, who are coming right out of high school. For example, Moustakas would have got the nod against Wil Myers if everything else between the two had been equal.
Anyway, I think Mous is top 10 regardless (maybe top 12 at worst).

2 I might be subconsciously biased on guys who have good sinkers thanks to watching a lot of Rick Porcello games over the last two years. It really made me realize the importance of being able to induce groundballs. Britton has a good sinker and had a strong season. He, like Mous, is a guy I see as someone who is ready (or at least, almost ready) for the Majors so he got bumped up over a couple younger pitching prospects who have not proved themselves at high levels.

Now to defend guys like Taillon and Harper against what I just said about being ready for the Majors, the only way I put guys like that above guys who have performed at the pro level is if I see their potential outweighing the performance of others. I see Harper as a once in a lifetime type of player with his bat, hence his ranking as #1. I see Taillon as a very special talent with a rare combo of size, makeup, and stuff for someone his age.

3 I'll give you that with Parker, I may have him a bit too high considering his situation. But I'm confident about his return!!

4 I've always thought Ackley was way overrated. Putting him as a top 5 or 8 guy just didn't really seem right to me after the season he had and the tools he has. Then I was reading more about him while working on this list and I kinda changed my mind a bit. Still don't think he's a top 8 guy for me, but I could see him in the 9-14 range. That said, I'm also fine with where I have him at #18 until he hits for better average professionally or hits for more power.

5 Sanchez was one guy I had in the mid 30s but dropped him down a bit simply because the bulk of his numbers are from the GCL, which isn't the best judge of a player's true ability. I see him as the Yankee's long term answer for catcher, but I'd like to see him hit a bit more in a full season before I throw him into the top tier of this list. If I were to pick a couple guys who I think have the best chance to shoot up 20 or 30 spots on this list before next year, I would say Sano, Lamb, and Sanchez.



Thanks for your thoughts, discussion is what makes these so much fun.

 

[ROLLTIDE4LIFE]

nice list. fine combination of high ceiling and proven close to majors prospects in good spots. I am not thrilled with montero at 2. His bat has to be super special and hell have to beast to be miggy cabrera lite whom played 3rd for a few years when he came up. Britton at 12 is agressive but I like it he has a great chancer at a long useful career without the hype. Hes often overlooked. Parker is too high. I love the kid and saw him dominate at mobile but missing a whole season and coming back from TJ is not good. Need to see him get back into things before making him top 25. Taillon is a god damn beast. Could top this list providing he stays healthy next year and bryce doesnt hit 40 bombs. I do like where you have machado sanchez and sano. Overall well thought out list

 

[chompsmcgee]

Ouch, no love for Ackley. I'm with Jaypers and all other top prospect lists on this one because I'm a homer and Ackley is legit.

Good list, though. Thanks for posting.

 

[ROLLTIDE4LIFE]

oh yeah and I love where you have ackley. He is never going to have power and hasnt hit for great avg yet. No way hes top 10 for me.

 

[All The Hype]

nice list. fine combination of high ceiling and proven close to majors prospects in good spots. I am not thrilled with montero at 2. His bat has to be super special and hell have to beast to be miggy cabrera lite whom played 3rd for a few years when he came up. Britton at 12 is agressive but I like it he has a great chancer at a long useful career without the hype. Hes often overlooked. Parker is too high. I love the kid and saw him dominate at mobile but missing a whole season and coming back from TJ is not good. Need to see him get back into things before making him top 25. Taillon is a god damn beast. Could top this list providing he stays healthy next year and bryce doesnt hit 40 bombs. I do like where you have machado sanchez and sano. Overall well thought out list

Thanks for the thoughts. I agree with you about Taillon, I see him completely dominating Low A ball.

As for Montero, I think we saw what he is capable of in the second half of 2010. Sure his overall numbers weren't eye-popping, but he showed that he can hit for good average and power at the same time. A guy like that is a special bat no matter where he ends up on the field. Even if he only hits 20-25 homers per year (although I see him hitting 30+ once he settles in the Majors), if he can also hit .320 (which I believe he is capable of), he's going to be extremely valuable.

Aside from that, I think it's overly ambitious to put Trout at #1 overall because I don't see him hitting for big time power. He may not have to to be a stud, but I think the people who are putting him as #1 are doing so assuming he DOES hit for good power long-term. The point is that I like Montero better than Trout at this point in time...at least until Trout proves that he can hit for the power some people assume he will.

 

[elmalo]

How many of these guys have you actually seen play?

 

[All The Hype]

How many of these guys have you actually seen play?

5 or 6, which is why I disclaimed the post by saying I'm an 'internet resource scout'

 

[ahill1]

Great list, but I think Trey Mcnutt should be on there. Where do you have him ranked? Im expecting a big year out of him in AA

 

[SeattleSports]

Yeah too low on Ackley. I read yesterday hes gained 9 pounds of muscle this offseason, should add some pop!

 

[shephech]

Not a bad list... nice read, Thanks.

I think that you have Drabek alittle low though...

Shep :ugeek:

 

[Jaypers]

How many of these guys have you actually seen play?

~ Because if the answer is none, you have absolutely no right to express your opinions. ~

 

[bozemanbreaker]

Thanks for sharing, I love your blog

 

[elmalo]

Am I the only one who thinks that there is just way too much going on in Harpers swing? Like that he will be susceptible to the inside fastball and good breaking pitches.

 

[All The Hype]

Great list, but I think Trey Mcnutt should be on there. Where do you have him ranked? Im expecting a big year out of him in AA

I definitely considered McNutt but ended up leaving him out..he woulda been in my early or mid 50s.

 

[Firebirds11]

Turner > Miller and Taillon

 

[All The Hype]

Yeah too low on Ackley. I read yesterday hes gained 9 pounds of muscle this offseason, should add some pop!

I am very open to Ackley, just would like to see some power or some better average considering his "plus" hit tool only landed him a .267 composite average in the Minors last year. Granted, he was playing Triple-A for part of the year, but I just had a hard time ranking him higher with a .267 average from a guy whose best tool is hitting ability.

It's not that I don't believe he'll figure it out, it's just that there were other prospects who are very projectable AND had much better seasons.

 

[All The Hype]

Turner > Miller and Taillon

As much as I wish I could agree (Tigers Fan here), I don't think I can. Miller and Turner are pretty close IMO, but I gave Miller the slight edge due to his beastly K-Rate. I see Taillon as a very special talent, he really has all the tools for success. It'll be interesting to see how he performs in 2011, but if all three of these guys meet their full potential, Taillon is the best of the three.

 

[Yankees1218]

VERY good list. I agree with almost everything on the list besides the very debatable Gary Sanchez's spot, Britton, and #45-50... All the rest are just about right...