So, it's a consensus that Topps screwed up TChrome...

[Crash Davis]

It will happen like this....early on when its $50-60 a box sales will be slow. Boxes will creep down into the $40s and maybe touch $30s this winter with nothing to generate excitement and the good autos out of this set (or shoot, even ones that sell for $25) being about one in 3 boxes based on the cases ive seen opened in person and online.

My theory is this....Topps cranked the presses to meet demand, sure. Once Stras got hurt they decided to bulk it up and make the odds even longer.

I don't think its solid reasoning but they have assured themselves one thing....that plenty of the product is left to bust when Stras comes back off of surgery in 2012. Thats a long long time away but distributors and other outfits will have cases and cases and pallets worth of this stuff even then.

While I think Brents estimate of 8K cases is strong, I don't think 5-6K is out of the question in the slightest.

This stuff will get a bump anytime one of the longshot guys in the product starts performing. The bad side of that is that they will be super hard to hit, and this stuff will be around forever. Hope they paid Lincecum a lot for having his mug on the box, cuz its going to be seen for a long time collecting dust in hobby stores.

Im less bitter than most because I hit a Stras ref auto and some decent parallels, but the other 2 guys at my break were livid because they MIGHT be able to get $300 back from their $700 investment.

I know the Hobby is all about fun, but whats the fun in busting 12 boxes to get nothing but scrub autos and crappy OC and marked up base cards?

The first problem is that people need to stop looking at busting wax as an investment.

Do you consider throwing down $700 at the Blackjack table an investment?

Of course you don't.

So you shouldn't consider throwing down $700 on a case of randomly collated cards an investment either.

And let's be honest, if you are chucking down $700 for a case you're not doing so with the hopes of pulling some really nice base cards!

 

[pigskincardboard]

[quote="Mighty Bombjack":ypuy0yyh]It is the nature of the beast in this business.

Topps makes their products MTO (made-to-order, which means they first print a sell sheet with projected checklist and chase card ratios, then distributors place their orders based on the sell sheet and perceived demand, and Topps prints and packages exactly the amount that was ordered.). This is a good business model and prevents them from cranking up the presses later if demand shoots up (a la certain former competitors). In this case, the stuff was ordered during Bowman's hype train, which meant that Topps had to up everything to meet demand. Unfortunately, that means adding a ton of less desirable autos to the checklist and spreading the refractors a little thinner. It probably also led to the lack of quality control (for which there should be no real excuse).

Topps was simply meeting the demand; it's just that demand CRASHED during product printing and packaging.

First, I'll say I haven't followed this situation that closely.

Now, what Topps did was all well and good but Topps obviously had to make the cards and procure more autographs. Based on the excuse that Topps always gives, "Athletes takes foreverz to sign," they should've known well in advance and an updated checklist should've been released.

They probably made the decision after the first week based on sales. To continue to provide a checklist that is knowingly false isn't covered by "subject to change w/o notice." At that point, they're knowingly deceiving the buyer.

And exactly how was the checklist "knowingly false?"

They added autographs. They didn't switch out Strasburg for Kevin Russo and not let anybody know until the product released.[/quote:ypuy0yyh]

They'd be better off actually switching the autograph out than they would be adding autographs to the checklist. You can claim that Strasburg backed out at the last minute and was unable to sign and you had to switch 'em out. When you start adding more autographs than there are TBD, that's when you get into trouble. They wouldn't have to list the players until the bitter end when they're absolutely certain -- ie. when they print the checklist prior to pack-out.

Anyways, adding cards takes a hell of a lot longer than switching them out.

 

[cgilmo]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

 

[Crash Davis]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

 

[cgilmo]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

And I will stand by my statement that when you gamble you know what is on the table. Sometimes when pre buying wax, you just have no clue. That isn't an indictment on any manufacturer, but it is the way it is.

 

[masonphillip]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

And I will stand by my statement that when you gamble you know what is on the table. Sometimes when pre buying wax, you just have no clue. That isn't an indictment on any manufacturer, but it is the way it is.

and honestly, if you don't think the checklist will change...then you are fooling yourself, checklist and odds always do and always will change.

 

[TomMurry]

I havent busted any myself, but the autos look terrible. Lots of poor QC it seems.

 

[rico08]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

And I will stand by my statement that when you gamble you know what is on the table. Sometimes when pre buying wax, you just have no clue. That isn't an indictment on any manufacturer, but it is the way it is.

and honestly, if you don't think the checklist will change...then you are fooling yourself, checklist and odds always do and always will change.

The difference between a changed checklist and DOUBLING the autograph content are two totally different things.

 

[js0000001]

Honestly, though, this is still one of the BEST Topps chrome product that Topps has ever produced in baseball, and definitely the best since 2005.

No doubt. Chance at some sweet autos and breaking wax is going to be cheap for those wax crack addicts.

2009 was a great year for Topps Chrome

Even if not all the Autos were A list guys there was a ton of value in the breaks

 

[masonphillip]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

And I will stand by my statement that when you gamble you know what is on the table. Sometimes when pre buying wax, you just have no clue. That isn't an indictment on any manufacturer, but it is the way it is.

and honestly, if you don't think the checklist will change...then you are fooling yourself, checklist and odds always do and always will change.

The difference between a changed checklist and DOUBLING the autograph content are two totally different things.

but again, they've done that before too, does it suck? yes. it is totally surprising? no.

 

[craftysouthpaw]

I agree Crash, but you still expect to get what you paid for. If you sit down at a black jack table, you know the odds and you know the game. So much of this is just blind.

I will stand by my statement that busting wax is not a form of investing.

It's gambling. Period.

And I will stand by my statement that when you gamble you know what is on the table. Sometimes when pre buying wax, you just have no clue. That isn't an indictment on any manufacturer, but it is the way it is.

and honestly, if you don't think the checklist will change...then you are fooling yourself, checklist and odds always do and always will change.

The difference between a changed checklist and DOUBLING the autograph content are two totally different things.

This.

I was one of the other two guys bmc mentioned and while it is strong to say I was livid, I was certainly not pleased. And I rarely sell anything I pull. I just want to feel like the value is there.

I placed my order when the number of autographs on the checklist was 25 because the value was there for me at the price I was quoted. So you were basically going to snag an auto of every player assuming perfect collation. Once they doubled that number, the game changed and I would not have bought a case at that price if I knew that up front.

That said, it is a fairly fun rip and there are still some strong autos. But the doubling of the autos and the horrible centering really put me off (and I have been defending Topps a lot this year - maybe not so much for the near future).

 

[011873]

Quality control and production numbers aside (we all can be blamed for that), this is by far the best Topps product produced this year not branded "Bowman."

Even with the watering down of the autos, the amount of top notch rookie autos is phenominal.

Add in the fact that you get a lot of rookies per box (and chances for top of the line guys at that), the usual array of refs and inserts, the cheap price and you have a very very good product.

I always love when you can get a non auto version of the auto guys. It just adds extra value to each box. So you didnt get a Stras or Heyward auto in your box? Well you probably got one or both of them as a non auto version.

Id say its the best Topps Chrome product since 2005 Update.

 

[Juddy]

I think the real dasterdly deed in all of this is the crazy refractor ratios in retail SKU's. Topps knew they had jacked the hobby case run through the roof and decided to sweeten the refractor set up in the retail product instead of strengthening the potential break value of the hobby product with additional refractors. The hobby revenue number on this product is around double what the retail revenue is and also at a higher margin and they still want to kick the hobby guys squarely in the balls. It's like they sit in meetings all day thinking of ways to *f* the hobby meanwhile bending over and spreading their collective cheeks for all of the big box retailers.

Maybe they will start to understand the concept of brand momentum next year when they try to sell 2011 Topps Chrome. Doubt it, but you never know. Every now and then the sun will even shine on a dog's ass.

 

[kentuckyderby]

agree that Topps Chrome is fine but that it's the pre order that are the ones upset
the production #s based on demand-- oh well

the comments about the lines and off centering---now that's a different story

 

[f2tornado]

I think the real dasterdly deed in all of this is the crazy refractor ratios in retail SKU's.

The Target retail rack packs are neat. Three packs plus three Orange Refractor cards for $8.99. I saw an Orange Starlin Castro on the back of one which gave me enough incentive to buy it. I got two base refractors and an xfractor in the packs. Also a nicely centered base Griffey card I can send to BGS and perhaps make a couple bucks on a gem. Pretty good value for average John Q. Public collectors.

 

[Lifelongfan]

agree that Topps Chrome is fine but that it's the pre order that are the ones upset
the production #s based on demand-- oh well

the comments about the lines and off centering---now that's a different story

I certainly didnt know that was the case. I paid 200.00 more per case than what they are selling for now. I pre-ordered because the sell sheet was out and I could see it---I knew what I was pre-ordering. For those saying oh well "you pre-ordered" thats what you get---No it is'nt what I got...I got a watered down version of what I was supposed to be getting. I would like to know of another year where the print runs was increased so much???. It's frustrating to see Global selling the piece of chit product for 560.00---but I cant get that price because I pre-ordered...Its Bull....!

 

[predatorkj]

I think , as was said before, you are still gambling on a preorder. Actually its probably worse since , as Gilmore said, you actually know whats on the table when you are gambling. With this you don't. Seeing as that is the way it is, and you know things are apt to change, you are really taking a chance.

QC problems aside, are you guys really upset at more autos?

 

[markakis8]

I think , as was said before, you are still gambling on a preorder. Actually its probably worse since , as Gilmore said, you actually know whats on the table when you are gambling. With this you don't. Seeing as that is the way it is, and you know things are apt to change, you are really taking a chance.

QC problems aside, are you guys really upset at more autos?

i think they are upset at the quality of autos that were added. if only 25 autos were in the product and 24 autos are promised a case AND stras, stanton, castro, heyward, matusz, etc are in the FIRST checklist...then 25 other autos are added and it waters it down by...A LOT...

yeah they have a reason to be upset...especially when the buy in for one price and the day it releases it is selling for over $100 cheaper.

 

[Lifelongfan]

I liked the product that I pre-ordered--Pissed that that is not what I received.

 

[hive17]

There is a bit of a "bait-and-switch" going on here, and we've never called out the companies (especially Topps when prospects/rookies are concerned), so now we're just stuck with the system. Someone more lawyerly than me correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't fundamentally changing the product (i.e., the odds) after money is paid a bait-and-switch?

But we, as the hobby guys, don't have a lot of room to complain, as we weren't running to distributors or anyone else we pre-bought 2010 Bowman for and asking if we could give them MORE money b/c case prices tripled...