- Thread starter
- #1
predatorkj
Active member
- Aug 7, 2008
- 11,871
- 2
Ok, me and a buddy of mine have been debating this one for a few days and I figured I'd just get the board's general opinion on the subject. I know this thread might belong better in the IP and TTM forum but that place gets very little attention. So cut me a little slack. And a disclaimer, this is not a thread debating the merits of those who do IP autos and then sell. I have my own thoughts on that as many of you do. But that isn't what this is about. And yes, it's a long read.
So, we were discussing various athletes we have gotten autos from over the years whether it be paid or for free. The list is pretty staggering but he sells some of his stuff while I don't. He keeps HOF'ers and Heisman winners and sells the rest, including doubles of the HOF'ers. So, in selling some of his autos, he like many of you with certain cards and brands/products, has to be careful with what he gets signed so that he can expect a decent ROI. Believe it or not, if your doing even a free autograph signing, it costs money for the item, gas(which these things always seem to be way on the other side of town every time), and time off of work. It affects someone like me who doesn't sell more but it also affects people who do sell. He goes after football autos mostly but does other sports too. So we got into a debate because he does full size helmets and I usually do minis. Even on HOF'ers. I know this isn't the football boards but this train of thought could count for any sport. Think instead of baseballs or cards, you got bats or jersey's signed.
I told him to chill on the full size stuff because it will take up way too much room. It's one of the reasons I quit doing basketballs and footballs because even if you are getting really great players, they start taking up too much room, especially if you want to display them in cubes. So normally, if I get a basketball signed or a football signed by just one player, they are either one of my favorite players or someone who is a really big name. Otherwise, I'll do a team ball and fit as many autos as I can on it. Those items are way too big to do every player you come across on, even run of the mill HOF'ers. So I told him he should start doing more minis, especially since he was going to keep these autos, lest he run out of room. He refused saying that with the prices he has had to pay for some players(like Joe Montana and Dan Marino), there is no way on earth he'd do a mini. His plans are to pass them along to his son and if he chooses to sell, so be it. But he brought up a good point about the mini helmets not selling very well. I mean, if you go get Montana or Marino at a large show, you're paying well over a $100 for the auto and maybe an extra $50 for a HOF inscription. If you wanted to get it authenticated at the show, it's usually pretty cheap(I think Tristar charges like $7 or $8), but if you went and got it done at a later date, it would certainly cost more. That's not including the price of admission, gas to go to the show, and the price of the helmet or item. Hell...you've easily spent $50 by the time you walk into the show. And you're not getting guys like Marino or Montana for free. Not normally. And if you do, it's rare you'll get a HOF inscription. Doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Just means it's far from normal.
So you take a player who hardly signs for free and when he does he normally doesn't inscribe HOF, you take the fact that you mostly have to pay way over a bill for his auto even on a mini helmet, and the cost of the item and gas and attendance and possibly authentication, and add all those factors up. Yet I'm seeing auto'd mini helmets of both Marino and Montana selling consistently in the $60-$70 range with many much lower and only a few even grazing $100. Now I'm all for paying the lowest I can for items. My take is I can get stuff all day long of any player, if you want me to buy from you, offer me a deal that sets you apart and gives me reason to buy from you. But on the other hand, I realize there are certain athletes that are not going to do free IP events and you will in fact have to pay for their auto. And if they are one of the greats of the game, you'll end up paying way more than you can even sell it for. A ridiculous amount more. Now yes, I understand anyone going to a show hoping to pay for an auto and trying to sell it for a profit without having had some sort of dealer's discount on the auto price is a fool. I think we all know that.
My point is, even at a dealer discount, $60-$70 isn't going to cover your costs at all. Not even close. I understand it's just scribble on a miniature helmet. I also realize and have personally tried my hand, at figuring out exactly what a player's auto is worth. I've done it with Bagwell. You kind of figure this out by looking at different items he signed and what they go for and you can see a little bit of order to the chaos. You start subtracting the cost of the item and possibly a little over that for other incurred expenses and you can start to see the pattern. Prices change as the item progress in premium nature. A picture will usually sell for less than a ball(8x10) and a ball will usually sell for less than a bat and a bat will usually sell for less than a jersey and so on. Doing this many times over, you can get the idea. But what of these athletes who hardly sign for free and if you're getting their auto, it's going to cost you more than it's worth damn near every time? To me, this makes no sense for big names that are incredibly hard to get. There are certain athletes I wouldn't pay for (namely any of the Texans or Astros) simply because they do and have done multiple free signings over the last 5 years. And by multiple I mean multiple. In fact anyone paying what Tristar charges for Matt Schuab, Arian Foster, or J.J. Watt has really missed the boat. A boat that continues to come back.
So my question is, given all of this, should people be selling autographs and allowing them to go for way less than a person could reasonably obtain them? It doesn't matter the sport as this can happen with any sport on any item. Un-authenticated IP autos and especially signed base cards tend to always dwell low on the money side but I'm seeing this even with PSA/DNA certified stuff. And not just on cards or 8x10's, which you will normally see at signings. And if it is the media the autograph is on that affects the price, should big shows make allowances for these and have an even lower price for said items? They have a tiered structure but you're still paying way more than the item can ever be worth and in many cases, the dealers might be too. And now that I check, even full sized helmets might not leave much room to even make your money back. Close in some cases. But most are a no go. My thought is who is buying at a price that allows for a dealer to make a profit? It's not happening on ebay. Maybe ebay is so rife with ebayer's doubting the authenticity that many refuse to pay much for any signed memorabilia. And I know sometimes people need to sell quick due to raising cash for an emergency. But I seriously doubt every seller selling is this way.
Any thoughts? I know I'm throwing a million things out there at once and this related a lot to football but it happens in baseball too. To me, I see this like I did the housing market a few years back. It's like a bubble that might burst. These athletes charge a small fortune for their auto and the shows tack on even more. A lot of people decide they want the auto and don't care about resell. But how long and how high will prices go on like they are before even these types of folks are shaking their heads and not going for it? Yet these shows are packed with people paying a lot of money for these autographs. You'd think it would get to a point where the supply met and overran the demand. It just doesn't seem to happen.
So, we were discussing various athletes we have gotten autos from over the years whether it be paid or for free. The list is pretty staggering but he sells some of his stuff while I don't. He keeps HOF'ers and Heisman winners and sells the rest, including doubles of the HOF'ers. So, in selling some of his autos, he like many of you with certain cards and brands/products, has to be careful with what he gets signed so that he can expect a decent ROI. Believe it or not, if your doing even a free autograph signing, it costs money for the item, gas(which these things always seem to be way on the other side of town every time), and time off of work. It affects someone like me who doesn't sell more but it also affects people who do sell. He goes after football autos mostly but does other sports too. So we got into a debate because he does full size helmets and I usually do minis. Even on HOF'ers. I know this isn't the football boards but this train of thought could count for any sport. Think instead of baseballs or cards, you got bats or jersey's signed.
I told him to chill on the full size stuff because it will take up way too much room. It's one of the reasons I quit doing basketballs and footballs because even if you are getting really great players, they start taking up too much room, especially if you want to display them in cubes. So normally, if I get a basketball signed or a football signed by just one player, they are either one of my favorite players or someone who is a really big name. Otherwise, I'll do a team ball and fit as many autos as I can on it. Those items are way too big to do every player you come across on, even run of the mill HOF'ers. So I told him he should start doing more minis, especially since he was going to keep these autos, lest he run out of room. He refused saying that with the prices he has had to pay for some players(like Joe Montana and Dan Marino), there is no way on earth he'd do a mini. His plans are to pass them along to his son and if he chooses to sell, so be it. But he brought up a good point about the mini helmets not selling very well. I mean, if you go get Montana or Marino at a large show, you're paying well over a $100 for the auto and maybe an extra $50 for a HOF inscription. If you wanted to get it authenticated at the show, it's usually pretty cheap(I think Tristar charges like $7 or $8), but if you went and got it done at a later date, it would certainly cost more. That's not including the price of admission, gas to go to the show, and the price of the helmet or item. Hell...you've easily spent $50 by the time you walk into the show. And you're not getting guys like Marino or Montana for free. Not normally. And if you do, it's rare you'll get a HOF inscription. Doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Just means it's far from normal.
So you take a player who hardly signs for free and when he does he normally doesn't inscribe HOF, you take the fact that you mostly have to pay way over a bill for his auto even on a mini helmet, and the cost of the item and gas and attendance and possibly authentication, and add all those factors up. Yet I'm seeing auto'd mini helmets of both Marino and Montana selling consistently in the $60-$70 range with many much lower and only a few even grazing $100. Now I'm all for paying the lowest I can for items. My take is I can get stuff all day long of any player, if you want me to buy from you, offer me a deal that sets you apart and gives me reason to buy from you. But on the other hand, I realize there are certain athletes that are not going to do free IP events and you will in fact have to pay for their auto. And if they are one of the greats of the game, you'll end up paying way more than you can even sell it for. A ridiculous amount more. Now yes, I understand anyone going to a show hoping to pay for an auto and trying to sell it for a profit without having had some sort of dealer's discount on the auto price is a fool. I think we all know that.
My point is, even at a dealer discount, $60-$70 isn't going to cover your costs at all. Not even close. I understand it's just scribble on a miniature helmet. I also realize and have personally tried my hand, at figuring out exactly what a player's auto is worth. I've done it with Bagwell. You kind of figure this out by looking at different items he signed and what they go for and you can see a little bit of order to the chaos. You start subtracting the cost of the item and possibly a little over that for other incurred expenses and you can start to see the pattern. Prices change as the item progress in premium nature. A picture will usually sell for less than a ball(8x10) and a ball will usually sell for less than a bat and a bat will usually sell for less than a jersey and so on. Doing this many times over, you can get the idea. But what of these athletes who hardly sign for free and if you're getting their auto, it's going to cost you more than it's worth damn near every time? To me, this makes no sense for big names that are incredibly hard to get. There are certain athletes I wouldn't pay for (namely any of the Texans or Astros) simply because they do and have done multiple free signings over the last 5 years. And by multiple I mean multiple. In fact anyone paying what Tristar charges for Matt Schuab, Arian Foster, or J.J. Watt has really missed the boat. A boat that continues to come back.
So my question is, given all of this, should people be selling autographs and allowing them to go for way less than a person could reasonably obtain them? It doesn't matter the sport as this can happen with any sport on any item. Un-authenticated IP autos and especially signed base cards tend to always dwell low on the money side but I'm seeing this even with PSA/DNA certified stuff. And not just on cards or 8x10's, which you will normally see at signings. And if it is the media the autograph is on that affects the price, should big shows make allowances for these and have an even lower price for said items? They have a tiered structure but you're still paying way more than the item can ever be worth and in many cases, the dealers might be too. And now that I check, even full sized helmets might not leave much room to even make your money back. Close in some cases. But most are a no go. My thought is who is buying at a price that allows for a dealer to make a profit? It's not happening on ebay. Maybe ebay is so rife with ebayer's doubting the authenticity that many refuse to pay much for any signed memorabilia. And I know sometimes people need to sell quick due to raising cash for an emergency. But I seriously doubt every seller selling is this way.
Any thoughts? I know I'm throwing a million things out there at once and this related a lot to football but it happens in baseball too. To me, I see this like I did the housing market a few years back. It's like a bubble that might burst. These athletes charge a small fortune for their auto and the shows tack on even more. A lot of people decide they want the auto and don't care about resell. But how long and how high will prices go on like they are before even these types of folks are shaking their heads and not going for it? Yet these shows are packed with people paying a lot of money for these autographs. You'd think it would get to a point where the supply met and overran the demand. It just doesn't seem to happen.