"Prospect Rush" is live.

[ljw29]

Spin it? Yes the Lindor is $50, upon call up $100+. I'm certain that most people understand every box can't have a $200 card in it. If they did you would have 0 shot at pulling $500+, $1000+, $2000+, and $4000+ cards.

I understand completely but it seems you think every prospect is going to double or triple after his call-up with your grab bags.

 

[nyc3]

If you consider that trash, I'll disagree, but thanks for your input.


You are not seeing a ton of box breaks on Blowout for a valid reason, most cases were sold to dealers. Not many single boxes were available.

I do, you are welcome.

As for BO I think its more like they didnt put their money where their mouths are. But I guess we'll see the mass amounts they break when its marked up for more money and distributed by these dealers who bought it out next week sometime.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Checklist has been listed on our Forum for about a week.





Interesting take. 14% of the product has been opened. 2 recent single box breaks have been posted on Blowout:


1) Mike Zunino Blue Ref Auto- 9.5/10 + a bonus auto.


2) Francisco Lindor Base Auto 9.5/10 + bonus Orange Ref.


If you consider that trash, I'll disagree, but thanks for your input.


You are not seeing a ton of box breaks on Blowout for a valid reason, most cases were sold to dealers. Not many single boxes were available.

Coming here and arguing to try to defend your product is not a good idea. . . it won't end well.....

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Spin it? Yes the Lindor is $50, upon call up $100+. I'm certain that most people understand every box can't have a $200 card in it. If they did you would have 0 shot at pulling $500+, $1000+, $2000+, and $4000+ cards.

ASSUMING he gets called up. He tears an ACL, he's not getting called up. He bats .200, he's not getting called up.

 

[VandyDan]

I'd like to hear your reasoning as to how this contributes to a proposed prospecting crash.

While I no means support this product, if anything, this increases the amount of cards on the market available for prospectors to buy, hoard, and then sell when the time is right. With 500 boxes -- 600-650 individual graded cards, I don't see this having much effect. As a Phillies phanspector, there's nothing I want that was in this product, so it doesn't have an effect on me whatsoever....

Short answer because I have to run to class:

1. Products like this increase/induce prospect market participation--they remove one significant entry barrier to the high end prospect game (presuming arguendo that this is a high end product)

2. More market participants drives up prices of all prospecting commodities (less so with low end, but more so with high end). So, we see prices of prospects go higher and higher.

3. Higher prices means higher winners' curse (presuming that folks aren't buy for sentimental value--few are, I wager, folks like 'phanspectors'. Hence the buy in is higher.

4. End-purchasers, ie long term collectors or hoarders are eventually priced out of paying for high value cards because sellers have so much invested in them. They are, in effect, too expensive to sell.

5. Folks begin to sell at a loss.

6. Folks start to leave the prospecting game

7. prospect cards lose their value and everyone has to sell at a loss.

Like the stock market crash of 29. The main reason was that the market ran out of newbies/suckers. Products that remove barriers to entry deplete the natural supply of newbies and suckers that markets like propsecting are kinda dependent on. That is, buying when undervalued and selling when overvalued only works when you have a viable end-purchaser. If the end-purchasers all become market participants, it fails.

More later, I think.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Short answer because I have to run to class:

1. Products like this increase/induce prospect market participation--they remove one significant entry barrier to the high end prospect game (presuming arguendo that this is a high end product)

2. More market participants drives up prices of all prospecting commodities (less so with low end, but more so with high end). So, we see prices of prospects go higher and higher.

3. Higher prices means higher winners' curse (presuming that folks aren't buy for sentimental value--few are, I wager, folks like 'phanspectors'. Hence the buy in is higher.

4. End-purchasers, ie long term collectors or hoarders are eventually priced out of paying for high value cards because sellers have so much invested in them. They are, in effect, too expensive to sell.

5. Folks begin to sell at a loss.

6. Folks start to leave the prospecting game

7. prospect cards lose their value and everyone has to sell at a loss.

Like the stock market crash of 29. The main reason was that the market ran out of newbies/suckers. Products that remove barriers to entry deplete the natural supply of newbies and suckers that markets like propsecting are kinda dependent on. That is, buying when undervalued and selling when overvalued only works when you have a viable end-purchaser. If the end-purchasers all become market participants, it fails.

More later, I think.

If done on a large scale, you may be right. But they take only 3-8 truly high end cards -- a soler auto superfractor, a few purple autos, etc, and redistribute. Assuming someone only buys one box and pulls that golden ticket (Charlie Bucket), he'll certainly sell it on eBay and likely reinvest that money into the hobby.

I don't think that this 500 box product kills the market. If it was a 5000 box product, where 30-75 superhot/rare cards were included, perhaps... but I don't think this makes a dent. Has the Leaf buyback product done anything to the market?

 

[goldenegg1]

You're not seeing a ton of breaks because the product is junk.
These cartoon cards are beyond ridiculous, and the fact that some of them are numbered is even more laughable!
Have there been any hand drawn sketches even pulled yet?

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Short answer because I have to run to class:

1. Products like this increase/induce prospect market participation--they remove one significant entry barrier to the high end prospect game (presuming arguendo that this is a high end product)

2. More market participants drives up prices of all prospecting commodities (less so with low end, but more so with high end). So, we see prices of prospects go higher and higher.

3. Higher prices means higher winners' curse (presuming that folks aren't buy for sentimental value--few are, I wager, folks like 'phanspectors'. Hence the buy in is higher.

4. End-purchasers, ie long term collectors or hoarders are eventually priced out of paying for high value cards because sellers have so much invested in them. They are, in effect, too expensive to sell.

5. Folks begin to sell at a loss.

6. Folks start to leave the prospecting game

7. prospect cards lose their value and everyone has to sell at a loss.

Like the stock market crash of 29. The main reason was that the market ran out of newbies/suckers. Products that remove barriers to entry deplete the natural supply of newbies and suckers that markets like propsecting are kinda dependent on. That is, buying when undervalued and selling when overvalued only works when you have a viable end-purchaser. If the end-purchasers all become market participants, it fails.

More later, I think.

Generally agree with this, its all a big 'house of cards'. The people who already know this don't really care because they expect to be long gone when the 'house falls down'... and real investors with real money aren't in the hobby (or this product) for good reason.

I agree that reality is the only way any of this really works as prospectors would like is if people actually start keeping the cards and not selling them. Unfortunately we know that's not going to happen right now - not nearly enough investors have faith in the cards maintaining value and not enough collectors interested in PCing them.

 

[VandyDan]

Honestly, this is why the majority of my prospecting efforts are fanspecting--VU guys. Some have an increase in value--a certain non David Price pitcher has prices that are trending up. But if they fail, they will always be Commodores.

However, I've even stopped doing this because I've realized I can buy cheaper later.

Bottom line, with a lessening supply of down-the-line buyers, prospecting is in for a bit of a crash.

And also, to Counselor Loblaw's point, I think I just said these products contribute to the problem and will hasten it, not that they will cause it.

 

[letsgoSkins]

Short answer because I have to run to class:

1. Products like this increase/induce prospect market participation--they remove one significant entry barrier to the high end prospect game (presuming arguendo that this is a high end product)

2. More market participants drives up prices of all prospecting commodities (less so with low end, but more so with high end). So, we see prices of prospects go higher and higher.

3. Higher prices means higher winners' curse (presuming that folks aren't buy for sentimental value--few are, I wager, folks like 'phanspectors'. Hence the buy in is higher.

4. End-purchasers, ie long term collectors or hoarders are eventually priced out of paying for high value cards because sellers have so much invested in them. They are, in effect, too expensive to sell.

5. Folks begin to sell at a loss.

6. Folks start to leave the prospecting game

7. prospect cards lose their value and everyone has to sell at a loss.

Like the stock market crash of 29. The main reason was that the market ran out of newbies/suckers. Products that remove barriers to entry deplete the natural supply of newbies and suckers that markets like propsecting are kinda dependent on. That is, buying when undervalued and selling when overvalued only works when you have a viable end-purchaser. If the end-purchasers all become market participants, it fails.

More later, I think.

Looks like you two are hinting at a "bubble" in the prospect market. If so, I'd have to say you are both wrong. The prospecting market has changed in a few ways over the years but the most notably in that the majority of current stars now have autographed Gold refractor RCs. Collectors, dealers and fans have seen the repeated high $$ sales of prospect cards and many start to see what buzz is all about. I agree with you that there is increased participation but the extent varies greatly. However, the prospect market is covered much better with 50+ chrome autos coming out every year compared to <30 in 2002-2007. More cards = more dollars = much larger overall market with 10+ years of chrome autos on the market. I think it has scared some people how quickly this monster has grown. But the focus is the same across all sports for the entire hobby, Rookies and stars.

More dollars doesn't necessarily mean more per card. Delmon Young's gold refractor auto in 2003 sold for $250+ out of the gate if I remember correctly. The best prospect each year in draft sells in that ballpark but there are more high end parallels and participants alike. I don't see an issue here really. The hobby has become more gambling oriented and I know I personally would rather lose thousands on prospects than wax. The time spent researching and following has given me the same enjoyment you get from sorting/ordering/etc your cards.

We will never see people walk away from the prospect game, that's like saying people will stop buying RCs in Football or Basketball. New players will continue to create new demand because everyone wants to find the next star. Paying $350 for a gold refractor of Javier Baez is no different to me than investing $350 in the #11 pick of the NFL or NBA draft with high upside. People just can't get over the psychology of paying big $ for a player that may never play in the pros, but that's how baseball works, the buyer of the Baez wasn't ripped off. The market sets the value and it is just more efficient on the high dollar cards. The #11 pick in the NFL/NBA draft could flop out just as easily. The baseball RC market has just matured to where we paying similar amounts of the high end cards of the best draft picks/prospects.

The people that have been burned by overpaying for a high end card can take it as a lesson and learn from it or walk away from the hobby. It's hard to say what happens to the people that have been scorned because we never hear stories, they are often casual collectors. But the point is as long as there are new commodities there will be new markets and fools alike. The card market as a whole may not grow in coming years, but the prospect market is far from crashing.

All of that aside, Prospect Rush may feed the need of these casual collectors but they too will be ultimately faced with a decision once they are burnt on a buyback product. To me this creates even more end buyers for prospect cards because it is getting people interested in prospecting. Yes some will gamble on breaks, but it is commonly said here and there that singles are the better investment.

 

[Leaf]

Coming here and arguing to try to defend your product is not a good idea. . . it won't end well.....

+1

Lol

Bg

 

[cgilmo]

+1

Lol

Bg

Your repacks have more stuff in them.

 

[phillyfan0417]

Your repacks have more stuff in them.

The general sentiment is even if it did, jeff would still be full steam ahead.

Its not critique, its sport...

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Your repacks have more stuff in them.

We like stuff.

However, Brian's repacks are seriously deficient in the cartoon category.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

The general sentiment is even if it did, jeff would still be full steam ahead.

Its not critique, its sport...

Huh?

 

[sigma_chi]

watched a case break on YouTube last night. I believe livecasebreak.com was the breaker. In 1 master case they pulled a Kevin Plawecki Superfractor auto and an Eddie Rosario Purple Auto /10. I think it's a fun product for people who are into that sort of thing. I liked Leaf BOB and I don't mind repackaged stuff so it's right up my alley. It's a gamble and i'm a gambler however I have seen several breaks where a base chrome 9.5 card is the main hit (Austin Meadows $10-15), or a low end base gold refractor (Dwight Smith~$5 raw) or a James Harris blue auto ($6-8 raw), or a 2012 Matt Moore Blue Ref (<$5 raw). I might try some still yet but at least in Leaf's product, you know at the very low end you're at least going to get a Griffey Jr. or Longoria auto or a nice graded HOF rookie, not a $5 prospect who everyone knows will never sniff the bigs. The top hits in PR are fantastic, but the low end is very, very low. I know first release is a learning process but in the future i would be all in if the lower end hits in a $200 box were at least more than $10-15 cards. Good luck guys, I hope you make it.

 

[sigma_chi]

Holy crap the more I watch and read about some of these breaks the worse it gets. How would you like to pay $200 and get one of these bad boys????

Wagner Mateo non-auto blue refractor? These don't even sell for $1...seriously go look, one ended this week without a bid at 0.99!!!!!
Khris Davis Auto....seriously 2 bucks each
Archie Bradley BGS9....what is that another $15-18 card?
Jorge Soler 9.5 & Harper 12 Bowmans Best 9.5....maybe 15-20 combined?
Drew Hutchinson Gold Auto...at least it's an auto, but a $15 one

This is one big turd of a product IMO.

 

[Prospect Rush]

Holy crap the more I watch and read about some of these breaks the worse it gets. How would you like to pay $200 and get one of these bad boys????

Wagner Mateo non-auto blue refractor? These don't even sell for $1...seriously go look, one ended this week without a bid at 0.99!!!!!
Khris Davis Auto....seriously 2 bucks each
Archie Bradley BGS9....what is that another $15-18 card?
Jorge Soler 9.5 & Harper 12 Bowmans Best 9.5....maybe 15-20 combined?
Drew Hutchinson Gold Auto...at least it's an auto, but a $15 one

This is one big turd of a product IMO.

Hi,

Thanks for your feedback. We hired a third party to pack out the boxes. While we gave details on how we wanted them packed out, some boxes did get packed out in a fashion we were not happy with. In your above listings I would agree that 3 of the boxes need to have had another slabbed card inserted into them. I will make the same post here as I made on Blowout...

If you received a box with a single very low value slab please contact us. We will be happy to provide you with an additional Slab or Slabs to make up for the packing error.

[email protected]

We are working currently on a new format for series 2 so that this does not happen in the future. Thank you for your understanding.

 

[goldenegg1]

You would think that with your first release you would not have these types of issues.

 

[nyc3]

You would think that with your first release you would not have these types of issues.

Hey cloning an idea isn't easy apparently.