NL ROY Voting

[kdailey4315]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

 

[mwashuc06]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

Heyward played gold glove defense this year...

 

[kdailey4315]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

Heyward played gold glove defense this year...

So did Posey. Have you actually seen him play? .976% is Gold Glove defense?

Not very many outfielders won a GG with a .976% or lower.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Go ... t_outfield

Posey's numbers are much closer to past GG winners at catcher.

 

[BrewerSuperCollector]

I know he won't win it, but John Axford isn't even in the top 10 in discussion here 8 wins, 24 saves, 2.48 era, 1.19 whip 76 K's in 58 innings.

 

[lisu]

[quote="55_marlins_sp":1vbe0u8p][quote="ALL_THE_HYPE":1vbe0u8p]

no Castro either. he only batted .300

Gaby is so underappreciated it is shocking. He hads a very solid rookie season

Gaby is tough. He won't be a superstar and he won't win ROY, but he belongs in the discussion.

Another Marlin that I like to continue to force into the spotlight at every opportunity ( ) is Logan Morrison. He doesn't get much hype because he only homered twice in his time in the Majors, but he was an on-base machine (just as advertised), and actually held the Major League record for longest on-base streak at 42 games in a row. He wasn't around long enough to have much of an argument for ROY, but I'm a big fan.

Seems like there's really no question that Heyward and Posey are on the front runners this year, probably followed by Garcia. Not sure how you can put Bumgarner up there without putting Daniel Hudson in front of him. Hudson was much better than Bumgarner this year in every way. Hell, I'd put Strasburg ahead of Bumgarner too. What he accomplished in a small period of time was greater than most rookie pitchers' seasons.

And one last wildcard name I'll throw out is Jonny Venters. 79 appearances of relief for ATL, more Ks than innings pitched and a 1.95 ERA.

My top picks would look like this (purposeful separation between the top two, as they are the obvious 1 & 2 this year the way I see it):

1a. Buster Posey
1b. Jason Heyward

3. Jaime Garcia
4. Gaby Sanchez
5. Mike Stanton
6. Jonny Venters
7. Starlin Castro
8. Daniel Hudson
9. Stephen Strasburg
10. Madison Bumgarner

Love Morrison as well, but the bolded is what I've got a question about. IMO, who cares "if" the guy is gonna be a star. This didn't dissuade voters from voting for Bob Hamelin and Pat Listach. The award should be about the rookie who had the best overall "rookie" season. Gaby is tops for me.[/quote:1vbe0u8p]

I think you misinterpreted my post because I agree with you...whether or not a guy will be a superstar or a complete bust for the remainder of his career has nothing to do with the ROY voting. I only said the part you bolded because I think that may be part of the reason he is so underrated: because most people (myself included) don't think he will be a superstar. I think he will be a solid regular, if not above average.

But that doesn't and shouldn't take away from the tremendous season he has had. To not include him in ROY top 10 is wrong.

For comparison's sake:

Jason Heyward hit .277 with 18 homers and 72 RBI
Gaby Sanchez hit .273 with 19 homers and 85 RBI

Sanchez played in just 9 more games than Heyward.[/quote:1vbe0u8p]

I hate to say it - but it's all hype. Gaby Sanchez had a great rookie year too.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

Heyward played gold glove defense this year...

So did Posey. Have you actually seen him play? .976% is Gold Glove defense?

Not very many outfielders won a GG with a .976% or lower.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Go ... t_outfield

Posey's numbers are much closer to past GG winners at catcher.

Fielding percentage is an awful way to evaluate defense. Heyward is a plus defender at an important decision, but Posey is a catcher. Basically, those two cancel each other out (because of the playing time issue, where Posey would get a boost if playing time were equal). Offensively, both were great as rookies. But, Heyward's OBP is 35 points higher than Posey's, which is pretty massive. Thats why Heyward's wOBA and runs created numbers are higher than Posey's. So even without the playing time difference, Heyward was a better offensive player. Add in the playing time difference (though no fault of Posey), and there's a pretty big offensive edge that goes to Heyward.
And remember, Heyward had a historically great season. The only players to have a higher OBP in their age 20 season are Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez (Mantle was 1 point behind). All of this in a year where offense was suppressed.

As for Sanchez, he had a nice year but isn't in the same stratosphere as those two guys, especially considering he plays first base.

 

[GiantsSuperCollector]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

Heyward played gold glove defense this year...

So did Posey. Have you actually seen him play? .976% is Gold Glove defense?

Not very many outfielders won a GG with a .976% or lower.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Go ... t_outfield

Posey's numbers are much closer to past GG winners at catcher.

Fielding percentage is an awful way to evaluate defense. Heyward is a plus defender at an important decision, but Posey is a catcher. Basically, those two cancel each other out (because of the playing time issue, where Posey would get a boost if playing time were equal). Offensively, both were great as rookies. But, Heyward's OBP is 35 points higher than Posey's, which is pretty massive. Thats why Heyward's wOBA and runs created numbers are higher than Posey's. So even without the playing time difference, Heyward was a better offensive player. Add in the playing time difference (though no fault of Posey), and there's a pretty big offensive edge that goes to Heyward.
And remember, Heyward had a historically great season. The only players to have a higher OBP in their age 20 season are Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez (Mantle was 1 point behind). All of this in a year where offense was suppressed.

As for Sanchez, he had a nice year but isn't in the same stratosphere as those two guys, especially considering he plays first base.

What about Posey having to catch the best staff in the majors? That mean anything to you? Also you said being a catcher and being a plus defender cancel each other out, Posey is a plus defender catcher as well as an amazing game caller, look at the staff's stats down the stretch, Heyward is just a "plus" defender with a .976 fielding percentage in the OUTFIELD.

 

[lisu]

I think it's going to be close as Olney picked Posey, and Law picked Heyward. They will both be deserving of the award. I'm still rooting for Buster though.

 

[kdailey4315]

Fielding percentage is an awful way to evaluate defense.

How is that? Seems pretty simple to me. You either make the play or you don't. You're basically saying that errors are a bad way to evaluate defense.

 

[Sly]

I'm wondering how much the results get skewed by the writers voting for Strasburg...

Won't happen. Voters can only vote for three guys, so there is no way you see Strasburg in the voting, and frankly if you do, a writer needs to have his voting privleges revoked considering how many other better nominees there are in the NL that played most or all of the season.

With that said, here's my three:

1. Buster Posey
2. Jason Heyward
3. Jaime Garcia

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

How are people justifying Heyward over Posey? Is it the 5 more RBI with 100 more at bats? Same HR and Posey has a higher SLG and OPS.

Heyward played gold glove defense this year...

So did Posey. Have you actually seen him play? .976% is Gold Glove defense?

Not very many outfielders won a GG with a .976% or lower.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Go ... t_outfield

Posey's numbers are much closer to past GG winners at catcher.

Fielding percentage is an awful way to evaluate defense. Heyward is a plus defender at an important decision, but Posey is a catcher. Basically, those two cancel each other out (because of the playing time issue, where Posey would get a boost if playing time were equal). Offensively, both were great as rookies. But, Heyward's OBP is 35 points higher than Posey's, which is pretty massive. Thats why Heyward's wOBA and runs created numbers are higher than Posey's. So even without the playing time difference, Heyward was a better offensive player. Add in the playing time difference (though no fault of Posey), and there's a pretty big offensive edge that goes to Heyward.
And remember, Heyward had a historically great season. The only players to have a higher OBP in their age 20 season are Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez (Mantle was 1 point behind). All of this in a year where offense was suppressed.

As for Sanchez, he had a nice year but isn't in the same stratosphere as those two guys, especially considering he plays first base.

What about Posey having to catch the best staff in the majors? That mean anything to you? Also you said being a catcher and being a plus defender cancel each other out, Posey is a plus defender catcher as well as an amazing game caller, look at the staff's stats down the stretch, Heyward is just a "plus" defender with a .976 fielding percentage in the OUTFIELD.

That staff would have been outstanding even if one of us was catching. There has been extensive work on looking at catcher's ERA, and nothing has been found to indicate that a catcher has much of an impact. Really good pitchers, which the Giants have in spades, are really good pitchers no matter who catches. Sure, there may be some instances where a guy is more comfortable with a particular catcher, but in all reality, stuff dictates performances, not the catcher. Heck, most of the time the catcher doesn't even have final say in what pitch the pitcher throws.

As for the cancelling out issue, Heyward started 136 games in the outfield. He was a plus defender in every advanced metric (using fielding percentage to make a point will get you nowhere. It is the worst "stat" to use when looking at defense). Posey started only 75 games as a catcher. Thats a huge difference in playing time, and something that just cant be thrown away. I might have even too generous to Posey, just because the sheer number of innings that Heyward played when compared to Posey is massive.

 

[lisu]

That staff would have been outstanding even if one of us was catching. There has been extensive work on looking at catcher's ERA, and nothing has been found to indicate that a catcher has much of an impact. Really good pitchers, which the Giants have in spades, are really good pitchers no matter who catches. Sure, there may be some instances where a guy is more comfortable with a particular catcher, but in all reality, stuff dictates performances, not the catcher. Heck, most of the time the catcher doesn't even have final say in what pitch the pitcher throws.

The bolded statement is not true. A good catcher studies the hitters and notices weaknesses and tendencies and makes calls to the pitcher. If your argument was true, then the Giants would have rushed Buster up at the beginning of the year.

 

[Super Mario]

3. Jaimie Garcia :?:



::facepalm:: :benson:

 

[matfanofold]

Although I think Heyward is going to win, I can see the argument thats made for Posey. Like most awards though, it's 1 part stats, 1 part popularity, and 1 part intangables. I think Heyward takes 2 out of the 3 and wins.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

Fielding percentage is an awful way to evaluate defense.

How is that? Seems pretty simple to me. You either make the play or you don't. You're basically saying that errors are a bad way to evaluate defense.

Wow. I mean, really, wow. Just do a little bit a reading and try to educate yourself. Here's a link just to start with.

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/08/11/d ... d-defense/

Errors do not take into account range, difficulty of the play, etc. Just take the example of 30 balls hit in the exact places to two different shortstops. One guy gets to 28 of the plays, but makes two errors, therefore getting 26 outs. The other guy gets to 23 balls, but gets each of those guys out. He would have a sparkling 1.000 fielding percentage, but would get three fewer outs. Obviously, fielding percentage would favor player B, but everyone would rather have the guy who got 3 extra outs. It's really not complicated to see why nobody using fielding percentage anymore.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

That staff would have been outstanding even if one of us was catching. There has been extensive work on looking at catcher's ERA, and nothing has been found to indicate that a catcher has much of an impact. Really good pitchers, which the Giants have in spades, are really good pitchers no matter who catches. Sure, there may be some instances where a guy is more comfortable with a particular catcher, but in all reality, stuff dictates performances, not the catcher. Heck, most of the time the catcher doesn't even have final say in what pitch the pitcher throws.

The bolded statement is not true. A good catcher studies the hitters and notices weaknesses and tendencies and makes calls to the pitcher. If your argument was true, then the Giants would have rushed Buster up at the beginning of the year.

Actually, the pitching coaches, pitchers, and all catchers together, in combination with advanced scouts look at tendencies and make scouting reports. Again, there have been countless studies looking at the effects of "catcher ERA". none of them have shown that there is, over the long haul, an observed effect. Good pitchers are good pitchers for a reason, and it isnt because of the catcher.

As for the Giants not calling up Posey, it was probably a combination of trying to delay his clock and Sabean not being the brightest guy in the world. There is nothing that Molina does better than Posey, and it was laughable that Molina was given another year at the expense of Buster.

 

[Sly]

3. Jaimie Garcia :?:

::facepalm:: :benson:

Great feedback...is that at the fact I put him #3 or accidently typed an extra "i" in there?

Hate to break it to you, but who did you see on Sportscenter more often or on Baseball Tonight? Heyward, Posey or Garcia. Very few outside of St. Louis know Garcia because he didn't have the hype around him. Also, as I've said in these debates before, when someone OUTSIDE of St. Louis think of the Cardinals rotation, who do you think of? Garcia? Not a chance. It's Wainwright and Carpenter. Hell, Lohse, Westbrook and Suppan got more national media attention than Garcia...and if you think that won't affect Garcia's voting, then you've got your head way too far into the "hometown weeds" to see reality.

 

[Super Mario]

3. Jaimie Garcia :?:

::facepalm:: :benson:

Great feedback...is that at the fact I put him #3 or accidently typed an extra "i" in there?

Hate to break it to you, but who did you see on Sportscenter more often or on Baseball Tonight? Heyward, Posey or Garcia. Very few outside of St. Louis know Garcia because he didn't have the hype around him. Also, as I've said in these debates before, when someone OUTSIDE of St. Louis think of the Cardinals rotation, who do you think of? Garcia? Not a chance. It's Wainwright and Carpenter. Hell, Lohse, Westbrook and Suppan got more national media attention than Garcia...and if you think that won't affect Garcia's voting, then you've got your head way too far into the "hometown weeds" to see reality.

Oh, it has nothing to do with anything you posted.

Just frustration from a wasted season that's all. Nothing to do with you at all.

 

[Sly]

[quote="Sam Banks":38v6ne3f]3. Jaimie Garcia :?:

::facepalm:: :benson:

Great feedback...is that at the fact I put him #3 or accidently typed an extra "i" in there?

Hate to break it to you, but who did you see on Sportscenter more often or on Baseball Tonight? Heyward, Posey or Garcia. Very few outside of St. Louis know Garcia because he didn't have the hype around him. Also, as I've said in these debates before, when someone OUTSIDE of St. Louis think of the Cardinals rotation, who do you think of? Garcia? Not a chance. It's Wainwright and Carpenter. Hell, Lohse, Westbrook and Suppan got more national media attention than Garcia...and if you think that won't affect Garcia's voting, then you've got your head way too far into the "hometown weeds" to see reality.

Oh, it has nothing to do with anything you posted.

Just frustration from a wasted season that's all. Nothing to do with you at all.[/quote:38v6ne3f]

Fair enough. I agree it was a wasted season for him. I think if the Cards had made the playoffs Garcia would have started getting more attention, but the fact they died off towards the end, any momentum he had went with the team.

 

[Todd44]

I'm wondering how much the results get skewed by the writers voting for Strasburg...

:?:
He will get 0 votes. Instead things have changed since last year, voters (Baseball Writers' Association of America) have to place their top 3 in order. And sincerly, if there is one guy who vote for Stras, please fire him, he doesn't belong to write anymore.

My top 5:

Posey
Heyward
Castro
Garcia
Sanchez

As someone who has voted for BBWAA awards in the past, writers have always had to rank the vote-getters in a certain order (at least in the last decade), whether it's a Top 3 for ROY or Top 10 for MVP.