Will the baseball nerds ruin the sport with cybermetrics and WAR stuff?

[notjomommasclint]

So trout is a more valuable asset because he is fast? That's a flawed argument since their styles are and positional requirements and different. miggy is a 3 hole and trout is a 1. It's like comparing apples to rape. Lets switch to an area of dominance for miggy. the ability to drive in runs. Miggy hit 32 points higher with risp and had 56 more RBI. Subtract the runs saved by trout and you have a positive for miggy.

In my opinion if you have to argue war it's because conventional stats and tangible non modeled play is stacked against your player.

 

[Austin]

Those damn cybermetrics! Robots will destroy baseball!

 

[ThoseBackPages]

LOL

 

[James52411]

Another statistic that shows very little about value. RBI is often something that a player cannot control (unless he hits a home run) and is dependent on the players in front of you getting on base. For example, Cabrera had right around 70 more plate appearances than Trout with RISP. And even with that, both samples are exceedingly small to tell all that much about either player other than they are both totally fantastic hitters. There is no debate as to whether Cabrera is an inner-circle HOF type hitter. Heck, I've been advocating him as the second best hitter, behind Pujuls, over the last 7-8 years. He had a fantastic year and got a ton of attention because of the Triple Crown, which is great. But he wasnt the best overall baseball player in the league, and looking at it purely from an objective standpoint (and not even using WAR, which apparently everyone hates and few understand), it wasn't all that close.

So, base hits and driving in runners are not good measures of a baseball player's value. Good to know.

 

[George_Calfas]

Why is wOBA flawed? What about wRC+? You can't just say they are flawed without giving an explanation of what they calculate and how the evidence that those stats correlate with runs scored and wins is much higher than something like batting average, RBI, etc.

I personally am not a fan of using one season WAR because of the fluctuation of defensive numbers across the rating systems. Even with that, Trout graded out highly positive across all systems and passes the eye test with flying colors. Cabrera, at the very best, is average. Does defense not count for anything?

And Trout wasnt better because his numbers in the last 3 innings were worse than Cabrera's? That's your argument? Do innings 1-6 not count the same? Is a run in the 8th inning counted twice? Is a run in the 3rd inning really 1/3 of a run and not an entire run? How about saving runs with defense? Is that not included in your sublime analysis?

As for your last point, speed is a very important part of baseball. Defense and baserunning are things that actually do exist, and speed is a huge part of both. Do we discount Cabrera's 28 double plays because he is slow? Do we not give credit to Trout for being a fantastic defender, saving a high amount of runs, just because he is fast? So yes, speed is one thing Trout has over Cabrera. And it shows itself in Trout having an astronomically higher effect and adding value through his baserunning and defense.

These stats are complied with differing arbitrary values, ie a single and reached on error are weighted to differing amounts, while fielders choice is not calculated (positively or negatively). Non-Intentional walks are counted but not intentional walks, what? How do the stats know that a non-intentional walk was not really a disguised intentional walk? Oh and HBP gets a different point value.

While these values are fun to calculate they fail to be supported by mathematical theory, proofs, or axioms. Look they are fun and get people talking but they are fundamentally lacking beyond HS algebra.

 

[MojoDan]

As a fan of the game, I am very much a traditionalist.

If I was an owner, I would look into every aspect of the game that would help the team be successful. I might not go after players with great UZR and WAR, but I'd be doing myself and the ball club a disservice if I brushed all new school logic aside and chose not to see the game from every angle.

 

[George_Calfas]

And Trout wasnt better because his numbers in the last 3 innings were worse than Cabrera's? That's your argument? Do innings 1-6 not count the same? Is a run in the 8th inning counted twice? Is a run in the 3rd inning really 1/3 of a run and not an entire run? How about saving runs with defense? Is that not included in your sublime analysis?

Baseball is managed differently in innings 1-6 as compared to 7-9.......there is a word; clutch. A leader off batter is pitched to differently than a clean up hitter plus teams in the first half of the season had a lot less film on Trout than in the second half when he hit sub .300. Pitchers and manager make in game and in season changes.

Look Trout had a terrific year and I am not taking anything away from his season, he just was not the most valuable imho.