Anyone think that Ichiro is very overrated offensively?

[sportscardtheory]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

 

[ROLLTIDE4LIFE]

I agree hes overrated offensively and defensively. Hes a helluva freakish indivdual athlete contact hitter. His value to a team as a hitter really isnt all that great. He slows down a bit and doesnt beat out some of those 60=70 infield hits a year, hell become worthless quick.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I agree hes overrated offensively and defensively. Hes a helluva freakish indivdual athlete contact hitter. His value to a team as a hitter really isnt all that great. He slows down a bit and doesnt beat out some of those 60=70 infield hits a year, hell become worthless quick.

I don't know about defensively (not saying he isn't, I don't have a good way of evaluating) but I think you are right on about the offense and am not sure why others don't see the numbers and agree, (is the initial perception and the fact he is lauded for his hits and 200 hit seasons so blinding that better metrics are ignored?)

 

[kdailey4315]

You know who was better in the field than Ichiro? Andruw Jones.

Really? I've never seen Andruw do anything like this.
Please excuse the crappy music. It's not my video.

[youtube:3ct90vto]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N87woplcrng[/youtube:3ct90vto]

 

[Mighty Bombjack]

"Overrated" is thrown around on these boards, and then furiously argued over. It's not really a definable (and therefore arguable) position.

I'll just say that I'm glad it's the Hall of Fame and not the Hall of Stats, so that Ichiro can be enshrined while almost everyone else on the above list can buy a ticket and talk about how their "offensive metrics" are better.

 

[Topnotchsy]

"Overrated" is thrown around on these boards, and then furiously argued over. It's not really a definable (and therefore arguable) position.

I'll just say that I'm glad it's the Hall of Fame and not the Hall of Stats, so that Ichiro can be enshrined while almost everyone else on the above list can buy a ticket and talk about how their "offensive metrics" are better.

I made it very clear where his stats show he should he rated compared to other players in the game so the word "overrated" is pretty defined in this post.

To me it seems funny that you'd prefer a Hall of Fame that ignores actual player value over one that looks at the stats objectively (and ignores media attention.) To each his own. IMO it's no different than voting for the most popular names for the All-Star game. Those who take a closer look know that those are not the best players that can be put on the field, but they are the ones that most fans want to see.

 

[Mighty Bombjack]

"Overrated" is thrown around on these boards, and then furiously argued over. It's not really a definable (and therefore arguable) position.

I'll just say that I'm glad it's the Hall of Fame and not the Hall of Stats, so that Ichiro can be enshrined while almost everyone else on the above list can buy a ticket and talk about how their "offensive metrics" are better.

I made it very clear where his stats show he should he rated compared to other players in the game so the word "overrated" is pretty defined in this post.

To me it seems funny that you'd prefer a Hall of Fame that ignores actual player value over one that looks at the stats objectively (and ignores media attention.) To each his own. IMO it's no different than voting for the most popular names for the All-Star game. Those who take a closer look know that those are not the best players that can be put on the field, but they are the ones that most fans want to see.

"Where his stats show he should be rated"? What the purpose of "rating" if the stats do it for us?

We should take fans and actual entertainment out of it altogether, have the players play behind closed doors and off of TV, and enter the statistics into a computer to determine who should be "rated" where. Then there wouldn't be any disagreement such as is happening in this post.

 

[donrusscrusademan]

"In 2009 Ichiro ranked 12th in the American League in Wins Above Replacement, was in a three-way tie for third with 28 Win Shares and 11th in the league in Baseball Prospectus' Value Over Replacement Player."

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... z0pBzK6cdr



so 12th in AL WAR
3rd(t) in WS
11th in VORP

that is pretty darn good.

 

[Sly]

At the end of the day one needs to DEFINE where he's overrated.

"Offensively" means nothing. Especially compared to those guys with a higher career OBP. Those are guys who have generally hit in the middle of a batting order and have "big name" guys hitting above or below them, so they are generally GOING to walk more. Ichiro is a lead-off hitter, and of those 23 ahead of him on that OBP list...guess how many are lead-off hitters...ZERO!!!

So basically no lead-off hitter gets on base more than Ichiro does...which is the job of a lead-off hitter. In fact, the only one close that can be considered a lead-off hitter is Luis Castillo at #37.

So as a lead-off hitter (which is his job) he:

Has the highest OBP of all active players
Scores 100+ runs a season
Steals 30+ bases a season
Still drives in nearly 60 runs a season
Has only hit into 45 double plays in 9+ seasons

And for being a lead-off hitter, the guy has a career .337 average with RISP and a .348 average with 2 outs and RISP.

What more does one want from a lead-off hitter?? And for the person who said that when he can't beat out those infield singles, he'll be useless...well, that may be the case, but until that day, he's not useless, and he's damn good at what he does. He's 36 and hasn't shown a single bit of slowing down.

 

[maxpower]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

I don't have the time or even the know-how to figure it out, but I would imagine that he has one of the higher runs-created per-162 games in baseball history.

 

[Sly]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

Let me also add once again, being 25th active in Runs Created, there are ZERO lead-off hitters above him. I'd like to know who is a better lead-off hitter in the game.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

Let me also add once again, being 25th active in Runs Created, there are ZERO lead-off hitters above him. I'd like to know who is a better lead-off hitter in the game.

I think Jeter has been a lead-off hitter a lot in his career. Not certain if he would be CONSIDERED a lead-off hitter though.

 

[Topnotchsy]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... z0pBzK6cdr[/url]


so 12th in AL WAR
3rd(t) in WS
11th in VORP

that is pretty darn good.

umm... it's alright. Helps that he gets a huge number of at bats, but even at 12th in the AL, assuming the NL had similar stats (don't have the numbers) that would make him 24th in baseball. Then consider the fact that based on OPS+ 2009 was his second best season of all time, and you've only helped the position that he is not one of the top 10 or 15 hitters in baseball (based on how much he helped his team.)

At the end of the day one needs to DEFINE where he's overrated.

"Offensively" means nothing. Especially compared to those guys with a higher career OBP. Those are guys who have generally hit in the middle of a batting order and have "big name" guys hitting above or below them, so they are generally GOING to walk more. Ichiro is a lead-off hitter, and of those 23 ahead of him on that OBP list...guess how many are lead-off hitters...ZERO!!!

So basically no lead-off hitter gets on base more than Ichiro does...which is the job of a lead-off hitter. In fact, the only one close that can be considered a lead-off hitter is Luis Castillo at #37.

So as a lead-off hitter (which is his job) he:

Has the highest OBP of all active players
Scores 100+ runs a season
Steals 30+ bases a season
Still drives in nearly 60 runs a season
Has only hit into 45 double plays in 9+ seasons

And for being a lead-off hitter, the guy has a career .337 average with RISP and a .348 average with 2 outs and RISP.

What more does one want from a lead-off hitter?? And for the person who said that when he can't beat out those infield singles, he'll be useless...well, that may be the case, but until that day, he's not useless, and he's damn good at what he does. He's 36 and hasn't shown a single bit of slowing down.

When did someone decide that a lead-off hitter has a different job than anyone else? A lead-off hitters job, like anyone else at the plate is to score the maximum amount of runs. While he might be batting in a place that caters to his strengths, that does not negate the value of a homerun or extra base hit.

And to even consider saying that the reason he does not walk much is because he is not in the middle of the line-up is worth about as much as those who say he could hit 40 homers "if he wanted to."

Fact is that he is not as valuable a hitter as many others in the game, yet he is viewed as one of the absolute best.

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

Without seeing those numbers in context, they mean very little. I don't have a list so I can't see who the other players are, but you have to keep in mind that Ichiro has had many more plate appearances than pretty much anyone in the game. Runs created do not factor in how many at bats a player has and therefore are skewed toward those who get to the plate more often and should be balanced by the number of outs made.

 

[markakis8]

Re: Anyone think that Ichiro is very overrated?

Well said. I'm on the east coast so I only watch Ichiro play against Orioles or Phillies or when I feel like catching a late game on MLB.tv.

That said, it's safe to say I've seen Ichiro play 300 games in his career and he's easily one of the best OF of all time.

Imagine this: Ichiro batted 2nd or 3rd his entire career. I believe he would've had almost just as many hits and 2x the RBI's and a lot more extra base hits.

He's only in the lead-off spot b/c of his AVG and speed.

Nah. He's above average or better defensively in RF or CF, with a fantastic arm. Even at his age, he still has great speed and usually has very high percentages for stealing bases. Also, he's the most gifted player I've ever seen when it comes to what he can do with the bat. He's a hitter, taking close pitches and drawing BB's don't score runners and don't get him 2B's and 3B's, he takes advantage of his skill set to the fullest. Sure, a few more BB's would be nice, but it's really nitpicking, because he's one of the best all-around baseball players I've ever seen. He's also a cool ass dude.

 

[Sly]

Ichiro Suzuki has created 1,081 career runs in 9.3 seasons, good for 25th on the active player list.

Only 15 active players who are 36 or under have topped Ichiro's run production.

Those 15 players average 12 seasons in the Majors.

7 of those players are 36 years old (Ichiro's age), they average 13.3 seasons in the Majors to Ichiro's 9.3.

Topnotchsy: you asked for a statistical argument and here's a fairly compelling one. The runs created stat is at least as persuasive as the stats you cite.

What seals it for me is the per year runs created analysis. He's done as much as anyone, in a lot less time. All in all, I think he's rated just about right.

If anything, his profile tends to put him in danger of being underrated. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't play in a big market, and has lower career totals because of his time in Japan.

Let me also add once again, being 25th active in Runs Created, there are ZERO lead-off hitters above him. I'd like to know who is a better lead-off hitter in the game.

I think Jeter has been a lead-off hitter a lot in his career. Not certain if he would be CONSIDERED a lead-off hitter though.

At one point, yes he was. But, he's played 640 games as a lead-off hitter and nearly 1500 in other spots in the order. So considering he's played less than 1/3 of his career as a lead-off hitter, I wouldn't consider him one.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Re: Anyone think that Ichiro is very overrated?

Why in the world would having someone else in front of him mean more extra base hits? Having someone on base in front of him could only slow him down...

Well said. I'm on the east coast so I only watch Ichiro play against Orioles or Phillies or when I feel like catching a late game on MLB.tv.

That said, it's safe to say I've seen Ichiro play 300 games in his career and he's easily one of the best OF of all time.

Imagine this: Ichiro batted 2nd or 3rd his entire career. I believe he would've had almost just as many hits and 2x the RBI's and a lot more extra base hits.

He's only in the lead-off spot b/c of his AVG and speed.

Nah. He's above average or better defensively in RF or CF, with a fantastic arm. Even at his age, he still has great speed and usually has very high percentages for stealing bases. Also, he's the most gifted player I've ever seen when it comes to what he can do with the bat. He's a hitter, taking close pitches and drawing BB's don't score runners and don't get him 2B's and 3B's, he takes advantage of his skill set to the fullest. Sure, a few more BB's would be nice, but it's really nitpicking, because he's one of the best all-around baseball players I've ever seen. He's also a cool ass dude.

 

[markakis8]

Re: Anyone think that Ichiro is very overrated?

Ask yourself this...how many of those players have hit leadoff their entire career?

The fact is, Ichiro gets on base....regardless of how he does it. He does it in a way CONSISTENTLY that no one ever has. He the best RF since Roberto Clemente. He's NOT overrated. Can you imagine if he was on the Yankees or Red Sox? He'd be UNDERRATED!

Bobby Abreu
Nick Johnson
Kevin Youkilis
J.D. Drew
David Wright
Travis Hafner
Derek Jeter
Matt Holliday
Adam Dunn
Chase Utley
Jorge Posada

Why are you comparing him to 3rd 4th and 5th hitters with the exception of Jeter? Of course his HR's and RBI are going to match up. He's a leadoff hitter. It's not his job to drive in runs. His job is to get on base, steal bases and score runs. That is all and he does a damn good job at that.

Also, Ichiro is a First-ballot HoF'er, and with the exception of Jeter, no one on that list is even in the HoF discussion. So comparing him to those players based on whatever metric you want to use doesn't have anything to do with how he's "rated", since I would think the average baseball fan can look at that list and know that Ichiro is better.

You are refuting all the statistical evidence based on the fact that "the average baseball fan can look at that list and know that Ichiro is better?" That's pretty weak, especially since the numbers pretty clearly show that most if not all of those players to your line-up would improve your chances of winning more than adding Ichiro.

I know it's not the popular position, but until someone uses stats to refute it, I don't it any other way.

 

[Sly]

At the end of the day one needs to DEFINE where he's overrated.

"Offensively" means nothing. Especially compared to those guys with a higher career OBP. Those are guys who have generally hit in the middle of a batting order and have "big name" guys hitting above or below them, so they are generally GOING to walk more. Ichiro is a lead-off hitter, and of those 23 ahead of him on that OBP list...guess how many are lead-off hitters...ZERO!!!

So basically no lead-off hitter gets on base more than Ichiro does...which is the job of a lead-off hitter. In fact, the only one close that can be considered a lead-off hitter is Luis Castillo at #37.

So as a lead-off hitter (which is his job) he:

Has the highest OBP of all active players
Scores 100+ runs a season
Steals 30+ bases a season
Still drives in nearly 60 runs a season
Has only hit into 45 double plays in 9+ seasons

And for being a lead-off hitter, the guy has a career .337 average with RISP and a .348 average with 2 outs and RISP.

What more does one want from a lead-off hitter?? And for the person who said that when he can't beat out those infield singles, he'll be useless...well, that may be the case, but until that day, he's not useless, and he's damn good at what he does. He's 36 and hasn't shown a single bit of slowing down.

When did someone decide that a lead-off hitter has a different job than anyone else? A lead-off hitters job, like anyone else at the plate is to score the maximum amount of runs. While he might be batting in a place that caters to his strengths, that does not negate the value of a homerun or extra base hit.

And to even consider saying that the reason he does not walk much is because he is not in the middle of the line-up is worth about as much as those who say he could hit 40 homers "if he wanted to."

Fact is that he is not as valuable a hitter as many others in the game, yet he is viewed as one of the absolute best.

Seriously?? A lead-off hitter has ALWAYS had a different role. His role is to get on base, while a clean-up hitters role is to drive them in. You're telling me that Ichiro and Pujols both have the same job??

Either way, the guy ranks 26th among active players in Times on Base, and the ONLY guy above him who has not played more seasons than Ichiro...Pujols. And most of the guys above him have 3-5 seasons on Ichiro, so please again explain how he doesn't get on base as much as he should.

At the end of the day, the bolded statement above once again proves my original point. People can't past the fact that there is more to baseball than home runs and power. He bats in the order that fits his strengths, because EVERY PLAYER has different strengths. And the job that he is expected to do (get on base, steal bases, score runs), NO ONE in that role does that better, and if you can't accept that different players have different roles, than this entire discussion is moot...

 

[Topnotchsy]

Re: Anyone think that Ichiro is very overrated?

Ask yourself this...how many of those players have hit leadoff their entire career?

The fact is, Ichiro gets on base....regardless of how he does it. He does it in a way CONSISTENTLY that no one ever has. He the best RF since Roberto Clemente. He's NOT overrated. Can you imagine if he was on the Yankees or Red Sox? He'd be UNDERRATED!

What in the world does that mean? Basically if I understanding you are saying that "Ichiro gets on base" means that he's a great hitter, despite the fact that he does not get on base as often as players like J.D. Drew, Nick Johnson or Bobby Abreu. Meanwhile calling him a "lead-off hitter" for some reason lets you ignore any comparisons to other players who are not and therefore means that he is a better player. How does that make sense?