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SydBarrett
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So I was just browsing ESPN and I came across Mr. laws list. For what it's worth, number three is not a typo, I can personally name five players who I believe are going to be better but okay, he's the guy that gets paid for it.
1
Mike Trout
AGE: 21
DOB: 8/7/91
HT: 6-1
WT: 200
POS: CF
AVG.326
OBP .399
OPS .963
HR 30
SB 49
WAR 10.7
Current: Trout was the best player in baseball in 2012, and should have been the AL MVP. He showed more power than expected but had all of the game-changing speed, defense, and on-base ability foreseen since his full-season debut in the minors in 2010. Trout's approach at the plate would be outstanding for a 10-year veteran, and unlike many young players, he didn't fade in September, with a .400/.500 OBP/SLG line from Sept. 1 on.
Aside from a slight weakness for high fastballs, he's an extremely difficult out and gives the Angels -- along with Peter Bourjos -- two legitimate plus defenders in center on the roster.
Future: It's hard to imagine Trout being better than he was in 2012, but he has the tools, the pitch recognition and the instincts to put up several more MVP-caliber seasons over the next decade. Even if his BABIP drops to the point where he hits for a .290 average instead of .320, his secondary skills would still put him in the 7-WAR territory.
The Angels might want to see one more full season of crazy performances from Trout, but at some point, they have to consider offering him a 10-year deal to lock up his potential prime years before he gets close to free agency.
2
Bryce Harper
AGE: 20
DOB: 10/16/92
HT: 6-3
WT: 225
POS: RF
AVG .270
OBP .340
OPS .817
HR 22
SB 18
WAR 5.0
Current: He was rushed to the big leagues before he'd shown enough growth as a hitter above low Class A, and although he started strongly, Harper hit a roadblock when pitchers found a consistent way to get him out -- going hard under his hands, then going soft away.
But he made a substantial adjustment in mid-August and finished strongly enough to deserve and win the NL Rookie of the Year award, making 2012 not just a successful season for his raw performance but a solid developmental year as well.
Future: Harper's raw power rivals that of any hitter in the game, and the improvement in his approach bodes well for his ability to continue to show that power in games going forward. He'll have a few 40-homer seasons in his 20s and is one of two current players, along with No. 4 on this list, with a non-trivial chance to reach 50, even in this era of less offense.
He also improved on defense enough that he'll likely rate among the league's best right fielders, both with his glove and his arm, for years to come.
3
Jason Heyward
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/9/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 240
POS: RF
AVG .269
OBP .335
OPS .479
HR 27
SB 21
WAR 5.5
Current: The shoulder injury and the defensive, groundball-generating swing that came from it are both things of the past now, as Heyward finally restored his pre-injury swing in late May/early June and showed the power -- slugging .506 from June 1 onward -- expected of him when he was the game's top prospect heading into 2010. He's also become the NL's best defensive right fielder.
Future: The patience he showed as a rookie wasn't as evident in 2012, but when he brings that together with the rediscovered power, he'll be among the top half-dozen or so players in the league. Getting his manager to bat him higher in the lineup, preferably second rather than sixth or seventh, might be Heyward's biggest challenge going forward, as he's among Atlanta's top offensive weapons now that he's full healthy again.
4
Giancarlo Stanton
AGE: 23
DOB: 11/8/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 248
POS: RF
AVG .290
OBP .361
OPS .969
HR 37
SB 6
WAR 5.4
Current: There are a handful of current major leaguers with 80 raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and Stanton's at the top of even that hallowed list. He would almost certainly have led the NL in homers in 2012 had he played a full season, and he still led the league in slugging percentage while playing above-average defense in right field.
His swing is still long but he's improved his recognition of off-speed stuff to the point where he doesn't have an obvious weakness for pitchers to exploit. So while his strikeout rates are slightly high, he can do plenty of damage when he makes contact.
Future: Stanton had nearly 1,500 at-bats in the majors before he turned 23, giving him the veneer of a veteran even though he's younger than many top prospects and rookies. The flip side of this is that he's probably maxed out his current skill set, meaning he'll be a 45-50 homer guy going forward but would need a lot of luck or a change in his approach to improve off his still-valuable pace in 2012.
5
Stephen Strasburg
AGE: 24
DOB: 7/20/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 220
POS: RHP
IP 159.1
K 197
BB 48
HR 15
ERA 3.16
WAR 2.7
Current: Innings controversies aside, Strasburg was as good on a per-inning basis in 2012 as any pitcher in the majors, leading the NL in strikeout rate as well as peripheral-based ERA estimators like xFIP and SIERA. Tommy John surgery didn't affect his stuff and he was durable within the limits imposed on him by the Nationals' front office. With the shackles removed or at least loosened in 2013, he's a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award going into the season.
Future: It's all about workload and managing his arm, as Strasburg's operating with a new elbow ligament and has the delivery and athleticism to keep that elbow healthy going forward -- to say nothing of the Nats enveloping him in bubble-wrap if he so much as sneezes.
His one path to improvement would be to drop his walk rate, but extreme power pitchers in this mold often sacrifice some control as part of a pitching plan to miss more bats, and Strasburg's control is solid-average, so if it never improves an iota he's still an ace.
6
Clayton Kershaw
AGE: 24
DOB: 3/19/88
HT: 6-3
WT: 225
POS: LHP
IP 227.2
K 229
BB 63
HR 16
ERA 2.53
WAR 6.3
Current: Only the best left-handed starter in baseball, even better than that guy in Tampa Bay, and statistically speaking the top pitcher in the National League this past year. Kershaw features a plus fastball and two plus breaking balls and God help you if you hit left-handed against him -- not that right-handed batters have a day at the beach with Kershaw on the mound, either.
Future: Kershaw's edge on Strasburg in 2012 was more about bulk innings than superior performance, as the two were pretty comparable on a per-inning basis, with Strasburg missing a few more bats but Kershaw working deeper into games (and perhaps pitching a touch more conservatively as a result). Health permitting -- and Kershaw has made 98 starts in the last three years -- he should remain one of the majors' top five starters for the foreseeable future.
7
Manny Machado
AGE: 20
DOB: 7/6/92
HT: 6-3
WT: 185
POS: SS/3B
AVG .262
OBP .294
OPS .739
HR 7
SB 2
WAR 1.5
Current: Machado was called up to the majors in 2012 out of need at the major-league level -- the Orioles' best option at third base was, it turned out, their 20-year-old Double-A shortstop.
Machado did about what you'd expect from a prodigiously talented youngster playing a new but easier position while jumping two levels to the majors: He played great defense, including the most heads-up play of the year when he picked Rich Thompson off third base, showed some pop, and struggled to get on base. This trial by fire might be his version of Mike Trout's 2011, an apprenticeship before the explosion into stardom the next year.
Future: Machado can and should play shortstop, but the Orioles have an expensive option at short in J.J. Hardy and nobody behind Machado at third, a position where there's little depth around the majors anyway.
If he stays at third long-term, Machado will still be a star, but there's some loss of value when he could have played an average or better shortstop and made his bat even more valuable. If Baltimore defies the odds again and returns to the playoffs in 2013, Machado will be a big reason.
8
Starlin Castro
AGE: 22
DOB: 3/24/90
HT: 6-0
WT: 190
POS: SS
AVG .283
OBP .323
OPS .753
HR 14
SB 25
WAR 3.4
Current: Castro's bat speed and hand-eye coordination have produced very impressive results for a player who has yet to turn 23, walks about twice a month and is only an average runner. Castro's total of 529 hits through his age-22 season ranks 20th all-time, and he's played fewer games than any player ahead of him except Ted Williams (563 hits in nine fewer games). He's also improved himself to the point where he's playable at shortstop and might be forced off the position by another player, rather than forcing himself off of it through poor play.
Future: If Castro barely improves from here, he's still a valuable big leaguer because he can handle short and is likely to hit at least .300 with plenty of doubles power. I think he'll grow into 20-homer power in time, and while his walk rates are pretty low, he's not hopeless at the plate, giving me some reason to think he could add 15-20 walks a year in time.
9
Madison Bumgarner
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/1/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 235
POS: LHP
IP 208.1
K 191
BB 49
HR 23
ERA 3.37
WAR 1.8
Current: Bumgarner was electric early in the season and looked like he might pass both Cain and Lincecum as San Francisco's ace, but he wore down as the year went on and was shaky in the postseason, getting (and obviously needing) extra rest between starts. When he's at 100 percent, his fastball is just above-average, but his hard-breaking slider is among the most effective in the majors, even against right-handed batters.
Future: Consider this a vote of confidence that Bumgarner's fatigue was just that -- a long season for a young pitcher who might need to pace himself more in 2013, or to get a little stronger going into the season. His delivery is not easy, however, and there's a risk that what we saw in October, with everything moving the same way and flattening out because he couldn't keep his arm up, is a sign that Bumgarner's arm action isn't built for the long term.
10
Elvis Andrus
AGE: 24
DOB: 8/26/88
HT: 6-0
WT: 200
POS: SS
AVG .286
OBP .349
OPS .727
HR 3
SB 21
WAR 3.4
Current: Andrus is the apple of every other GM's eye, as they see uberprospect Jurickson Profar right behind Andrus and assume the two shortstops are burning a giant hole in Rangers GM Jon Daniels' pocket. He has turned himself into an incredibly valuable player and commodity, a plus defender at shortstop who has had to develop as a hitter at the big-league level because his glove was so far ahead of his bat when he first arrived.
Future: I think Andrus' bat has another leap in it, one that will put his average in the low .300s and bring his OBP to a point where he'd help just about any club at the top of the lineup -- which club's lineup he'll top is, of course, the operative question.
If he reaches free agency after the 2014 season, look for him to get the deal that blows everyone away that winter, as the scarcity in the shortstop market leads to a bidding frenzy for one of the few sure things available at the position.
11
Brett Lawrie
AGE: 22
DOB: 1/18/90
HT: 6-0
WT: 215
POS: 3B
AVG .273
OBP .324
OPS .729
HR 11
SB 13
WAR 4.1
Current: Lawrie's explosive 2011 performance set expectations way too high for his full-season debut, and an oblique injury he suffered in mid-July cost him all of August, although he didn't do much damage against anyone except the Jays' NL opponents even prior to that point. The lone bright spot for Lawrie was the improvement of his defense at third base to the point where he's likely to stay there for the long term.
Future: When healthy, Lawrie has one of the best right-handed swings in the game along with very good hand speed, and as long as he gets full extension he should have 20-25 homer power, if not more. He's an above-average runner and a good overall athlete, which is why third base worked out for him despite general skepticism (including from me) that he could control his body long enough to handle it.
I'd like to see what Lawrie can do in a full season without injuries, but guys who play all-out, all the time, as Lawrie does, often find themselves in the trainer's room more than you'd like.
12
Salvador Perez
AGE: 22
DOB: 5/10/90
HT: 6-3
WT: 244
POS: C
AVG .311
OBP .339
OPS .799
HR 11
SB 0
WAR 2.8
Current: His season fell way under the general radar because it was so short -- in fact, since his major-league debut on August 10, 2011, he still hasn't reached 500 career plate appearances.
He's already shown he's one of the best pure defensive catchers in baseball, but he's also starting to see his power develop to go along with consistently high contact rates that have produced a .311 average in the majors and a .287 career average in the minors. At a position that is so sorely lacking in players with offensive potential, Perez should join Matt Wieters as one of the AL's top two all-around catchers.
Future: Perez missed almost three months of the 2012 season due to a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, an injury we'd likely forget were it not for Perez' position on the diamond. As long as his knees hold up and he can catch 130 or so games a year, I'm comfortable with his potential to have a solid run of 4 WAR seasons, perhaps a little above that, due to his emerging power. If he has to move out from behind the plate, however, his value would plummet.
13
Aroldis Chapman
AGE: 24
DOB: 2/28/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 200
POS: LHP
IP 71.2
K 122
BB 23
HR 4
ERA 1.51
WAR 3.6
Current: For the purposes of this list, I'm calling Chapman a starter, which was his role when pitching for the Cuban national team before he defected. We've seen what he can do in relief -- sitting 98-100, hitting 104, with a wipeout slider and a changeup that was almost doing hitters a favor because it arrived at a hittable velocity. He'll need to dial it down a notch to start, but his delivery should support 100 pitches per game if he does so, and I think his changeup, one which he has shown good arm speed with, will become a more effective weapon with increased use.
Future: If Chapman meets my expectations for him as a starter, he'll be among the top 10 in the game, with stuff that rivals Strasburg's and Kershaw's. If not, we already know he can be about as valuable as any reliever can be under the current, brain-dead reliever usage paradigm, where relievers are subject to spontaneous decapitation if they're allowed to get more than three outs in one game.
14
Matt Moore
AGE: 23
DOB: 6/18/89
HT: 6-2
WT: 205
POS: LHP
IP 177.1
K 175
BB 81
HR 18
ERA 3.81
WAR 1.2
Current: Moore ended up 10th in the AL in strikeouts in a very promising rookie season that saw him improve as the year went on, with small improvements in his strikeout and walk rates from the first half to the second. His curveball remains an above-average pitch for him and his changeup was good enough to keep right-handers in check, as he showed no real platoon split this year.
Future: He should crack the 200-strikeout threshold this year as he's allowed to make 33 starts, and I expect his walk total to drop as well (he had the seventh-most in the AL in 2012). He does everything so easily, including running his fastball up to 97 mph, that I feel very good about his chances to stay healthy and to join David Price as a second ace atop the Rays' rotation.
15
Jarrod Parker
AGE: 24
DOB: 11/24/88
HT: 6-1
WT: 195
POS: RHP
IP 181.1
K 140
BB 63
HR 11
ERA 3.47
WAR 3.7
Current: Parker ended up outpitching the man for whom he was traded, Trevor Cahill, in a superb debut season that looked even better thanks to an incredibly favorable home ballpark. Parker was a four-seamer/slider guy before 2009 Tommy John surgery, but has remade himself into a two-seamer/changeup/slider guy since then, mitigating the lack of downward plane on his fastball by switching to a version that has some sink. His changeup might be one of the most underrated in the game.
Future: He was always a better control guy in the minors than he was in 2012 in the majors, and he didn't miss as many bats last year as I might have expected given his raw stuff, although the latter was partly the result of an attempt to get more ground balls and generate quicker outs. Parker has one of the cleaner arm swings around, and I like his chances to be a consistent 200-inning guy with sub-3.50 ERAs for years to come.
16
Chris Sale
AGE: 23
DOB: 3/30/89
HT: 6-6
WT: 180
POS: LHP
IP 192.0
K 192
BB 51
HR 19
ERA 3.05
WAR 5.8
Current: I was always a big skeptic on Sale, thanks to the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now, but Sale pitched like an ace for most of the year and would have made my AL Cy Young ballot had I voted on that award. In his first full year as a starter in the pros, his changeup became his best pitch again (as it was in college), while he pitched with an above-average fastball and still showed the good slider that was his out pitch the previous year when he was in relief.
Future: So why isn't Sale in the top 10? That funky arm action is the main reason, as well as the three separate times that something went slightly awry with Sale's arm in 2012, resulting in an abortive return to the pen and a skipped start in July. It's so unusual to see a pitcher come from a slot that low and get hitters on both sides of the plate out, which makes Sale fun to watch, but I feel like we're already on borrowed time given how his arm works in the back of his delivery.
17
Matt Harvey
AGE: 23
DOB: 3/27/89
HT: 6-4
WT: 210
POS: RHP
IP 59.1
K 70
BB 26
HR 5
ERA 2.73
WAR 1.5
Current: Harvey's first major-league start was among the most electric I've ever seen; for five innings he was throwing fire and brimstone with a vicious slider and a fastball up to 98 mph, which isn't to denigrate his curve or changeup. He wasn't that precise package every time out, and his command still isn't very consistent, but that's a four-pitch mix that would work in the top two slots of most big-league rotations, right on top if he throws more and better-quality strikes with it.
Future: His delivery is much cleaner today than it was when he was a third-round pick out of high school or a struggling reliever in the Cape Cod League before his junior year of college, so there's no physical reason he can't improve his command and control to at least solid-average. He's also shown the aptitude to make major adjustments to his delivery, which bodes well for his ability to refine his pitching plan and dial back a little to improve his location.
18
Anthony Rizzo
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/8/89
HT: 6-3
WT: 220
POS: 1B
AVG .285
OBP .342
OPS .805
HR 15
SB 3
WAR 2.2
Current: The Cubs acquired Rizzo for hard-throwing, constantly-injured Andrew Cashner before the 2012 season, and they helped Rizzo shorten his swing to allow him to make more contact, especially against lefties. The changes largely worked: Rizzo cut his strikeout rate dramatically versus his 2011 tenure with the Padres, even making more contact against southpaws.
He's a terrific defensive first baseman and has earned high marks for his makeup from all three of the organizations that have employed him.
Future: A full season for Rizzo in 2013 should see him hit close to 25 homers with an average in the high .200s along with that great defense at first. He's only moderately patient, although that might improve as he becomes more of a power threat. The biggest question is whether he can avoid becoming a platoon player: He raked against lefties in Triple-A last year but had just a .599 OPS against them in the majors, albeit with a .221 BABIP. Given his age and the speed with which he has made adjustments, I like his odds of figuring out southpaws.
19
Freddie Freeman
AGE: 23
DOB: 9/12/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 225
POS: 1B
AVG .259
OBP .340
OPS .796
HR 23
SB 2
WAR 2.1
Current: Freeman has had two very solid, nearly identical seasons in the majors that established him as a solid-average but unspectacular everyday first baseman, with a mediocre batting eye and slightly above-average power, along with above-average glove work at first. He dealt with a scratched cornea for part of the first half of 2012, and played slightly better, with more power, after the problem was resolved.
Future: I like Freeman but don't see him as having the same ceiling as the other first basemen on this list, guys with better bat speed or more power. On the other hand, Freeman has a pretty high established level of performance in the majors, isn't futile against lefties, and might be headed for an uptick in production now that the cornea issue is behind him.
20
Yasmani Grandal
AGE: 24
DOB: 11/8/88
HT: 6-2
WT: 210
POS: C
AVG .297
OBP .394
OPS .863
HR 8
SB 0
WAR 2.7
Current: He'll miss the first 50 games of the 2013 season due to a positive test for a banned PED, but I don't think that seriously affects his long-term outlook as an everyday catcher who rakes when hitting left-handed, is passable right-handed and can control the running game with a strong, accurate arm. He's also got a long history of game-calling that makes up for the fact that his hands aren't great for the position.
Future: Grandal has little upside remaining, and unless you think his 2012 line was all PED-boosted (I don't), the future should look a lot like the present, with pop and patience at a position where any kind of offense is welcome. The one area left for improvement is in his throwing, as he nabbed just 23 percent of base-stealers in the majors, well below his minor league rate of 34 percent.
21
Andrelton Simmons
AGE: 23
DOB: 9/4/89
HT: 6-2
WT: 170
POS: SS
AVG .289
OBP .335
OPS .751
HR 3
SB 1
WAR 2.8
Current: He's the best defensive shortstop in the majors, period. Simmons is an 80 defender (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with an 80 arm -- he was up to 98 mph as a pitcher in junior college, but most evaluators didn't think he'd hit. He's made plenty of contact since entering pro ball and did enough of that in limited major-league time last year to make himself more than just a defensive specialist.
Future: The hope here is that he turns into Elvis Andrus. Simmons is already Andrus' superior with the glove, but the low-walks, low-power approach at the plate that still resulted in high batting averages in the minors is no lock to do the same in the majors. Simmons' swing is long and his pitch recognition isn't great, so maybe he never becomes a big walker, but if he can post .360-plus OBPs with his glove he'll be a down-ballot MVP candidate in many years.
22
Will Middlebrooks
AGE: 24
DOB: 9/9/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 200
POS: 3B
AVG .288
OBP .325
OPS .834
HR 15
SB 4
WAR 1.1
Current: Middlebrooks started out on fire after his early-May promotion, but once interleague play ended in late June his free-swinging ways caught up to him, with a .244/.277/.423 line from the resumption of AL-only play until his season ended on August 10 due to a broken wrist. He has above-average power with average range, good hands, and a plus arm at third base.
Future: A low-OBP, 25-30 homer third baseman who adds a few runs (saved) of value on defense is a good player, even if he's held back by the number of outs he makes with his bat. My concern on Middlebrooks is more in the short term, that we'll see a drop in his power production as pitchers exploit his total lack of patience at the plate.
23
Craig Kimbrel
AGE: 24
DOB: 5/28/88
HT: 5-11
WT: 205
POS: RHP
IP 62.2
K 116
BB 14
HR 3
ERA 1.01
WAR 3.2
Current: It doesn't get much better than what Kimbrel did in 63 innings last year unless you're willing to think outside the one-reliever, one-inning box. Kimbrel's stuff is absolutely filthy, and the turnaround in his control is remarkable: In 2009, he threw 60 minor-league innings and walked 45 guys, but in 2012, he threw 63 innings and walked just 14.
Future: It doesn't get much better than this, and it won't. But enjoy it while it lasts, because Kimbrel's stats, at least on a per-inning or per-batter basis, are historic, and credit of manager Fredi Gonzalez -- he backed off last season after working Kimbrel and Atlanta's setup guys way too hard in 2011.
24
Eric Hosmer
AGE: 23
DOB: 10/23/89
HT: 6-4
WT: 229
POS: 1B
AVG .232
OBP .304
OPS .663
HR 14
SB 16
WAR -0.7
Current: Hosmer was the best hitter in the Cactus League last spring, and when the bell rang on Opening Day, that guy evaporated into thin air. Hosmer spent much of the year holding his hands up high and tight, so while he still worked the count and squared up a lot of balls, he was also late on a lot of pitches he should have driven and never showed the raw power that was obvious in his rookie season.
Future: I'm still a believer in Hosmer's potential as a hitter, both in his ability to hit for average (and get on base) as well as his ability to hit for power. The Royals let hitting coach Kevin Seitzer go after the season, and I can only assume getting Hosmer back to his 2011 setup will be a major priority for Jack Maloof, Seitzer's replacement.
There is All-Star potential here, someone around whom the Royals can build their lineup for years, but 2012 was a surprising bump in the road for Hosmer and it's not a lock that the Royals can get him over it.
25
Chris Tillman
AGE: 24
DOB: 4/15/88
HT: 6-5
WT: 200
POS: RHP
IP 86.0
K 66
BB 24
HR 12
ERA 2.93
WAR 1.5
Current: Tillman looked like a lost cause at the start of the 2012 season, but when he returned from exile in July, he started to resemble the guy who was a top-40 prospect in the game heading into the 2009 season. Tillman's fastball velocity returned, as he was sitting in the low 90s again and touching 95-96 while his curveball regained its old bite. The one new item is the much-improved changeup -- 80-84 with late fade -- a pitch Tillman likes to throw middle-away or down and away to lefties as an out pitch.
Future: As a prospect, Tillman projected as a No. 2 starter whose curve was his out pitch and whose change would be good enough. He's probably back to that ceiling, but now it's more of a question of improving his fastball command to get him to that point. For a guy who looked like a fifth starter or worse just seven months ago, this is an outstanding turnaround
1
Mike Trout
AGE: 21
DOB: 8/7/91
HT: 6-1
WT: 200
POS: CF
AVG.326
OBP .399
OPS .963
HR 30
SB 49
WAR 10.7
Current: Trout was the best player in baseball in 2012, and should have been the AL MVP. He showed more power than expected but had all of the game-changing speed, defense, and on-base ability foreseen since his full-season debut in the minors in 2010. Trout's approach at the plate would be outstanding for a 10-year veteran, and unlike many young players, he didn't fade in September, with a .400/.500 OBP/SLG line from Sept. 1 on.
Aside from a slight weakness for high fastballs, he's an extremely difficult out and gives the Angels -- along with Peter Bourjos -- two legitimate plus defenders in center on the roster.
Future: It's hard to imagine Trout being better than he was in 2012, but he has the tools, the pitch recognition and the instincts to put up several more MVP-caliber seasons over the next decade. Even if his BABIP drops to the point where he hits for a .290 average instead of .320, his secondary skills would still put him in the 7-WAR territory.
The Angels might want to see one more full season of crazy performances from Trout, but at some point, they have to consider offering him a 10-year deal to lock up his potential prime years before he gets close to free agency.
LAST TIME: 11 | PLAYER CARD
2
Bryce Harper
AGE: 20
DOB: 10/16/92
HT: 6-3
WT: 225
POS: RF
AVG .270
OBP .340
OPS .817
HR 22
SB 18
WAR 5.0
Current: He was rushed to the big leagues before he'd shown enough growth as a hitter above low Class A, and although he started strongly, Harper hit a roadblock when pitchers found a consistent way to get him out -- going hard under his hands, then going soft away.
But he made a substantial adjustment in mid-August and finished strongly enough to deserve and win the NL Rookie of the Year award, making 2012 not just a successful season for his raw performance but a solid developmental year as well.
Future: Harper's raw power rivals that of any hitter in the game, and the improvement in his approach bodes well for his ability to continue to show that power in games going forward. He'll have a few 40-homer seasons in his 20s and is one of two current players, along with No. 4 on this list, with a non-trivial chance to reach 50, even in this era of less offense.
He also improved on defense enough that he'll likely rate among the league's best right fielders, both with his glove and his arm, for years to come.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
3
Jason Heyward
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/9/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 240
POS: RF
AVG .269
OBP .335
OPS .479
HR 27
SB 21
WAR 5.5
Current: The shoulder injury and the defensive, groundball-generating swing that came from it are both things of the past now, as Heyward finally restored his pre-injury swing in late May/early June and showed the power -- slugging .506 from June 1 onward -- expected of him when he was the game's top prospect heading into 2010. He's also become the NL's best defensive right fielder.
Future: The patience he showed as a rookie wasn't as evident in 2012, but when he brings that together with the rediscovered power, he'll be among the top half-dozen or so players in the league. Getting his manager to bat him higher in the lineup, preferably second rather than sixth or seventh, might be Heyward's biggest challenge going forward, as he's among Atlanta's top offensive weapons now that he's full healthy again.
LAST TIME: 12 | PLAYER CARD
4
Giancarlo Stanton
AGE: 23
DOB: 11/8/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 248
POS: RF
AVG .290
OBP .361
OPS .969
HR 37
SB 6
WAR 5.4
Current: There are a handful of current major leaguers with 80 raw power (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and Stanton's at the top of even that hallowed list. He would almost certainly have led the NL in homers in 2012 had he played a full season, and he still led the league in slugging percentage while playing above-average defense in right field.
His swing is still long but he's improved his recognition of off-speed stuff to the point where he doesn't have an obvious weakness for pitchers to exploit. So while his strikeout rates are slightly high, he can do plenty of damage when he makes contact.
Future: Stanton had nearly 1,500 at-bats in the majors before he turned 23, giving him the veneer of a veteran even though he's younger than many top prospects and rookies. The flip side of this is that he's probably maxed out his current skill set, meaning he'll be a 45-50 homer guy going forward but would need a lot of luck or a change in his approach to improve off his still-valuable pace in 2012.
LAST TIME: 3 | PLAYER CARD
5
Stephen Strasburg
AGE: 24
DOB: 7/20/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 220
POS: RHP
IP 159.1
K 197
BB 48
HR 15
ERA 3.16
WAR 2.7
Current: Innings controversies aside, Strasburg was as good on a per-inning basis in 2012 as any pitcher in the majors, leading the NL in strikeout rate as well as peripheral-based ERA estimators like xFIP and SIERA. Tommy John surgery didn't affect his stuff and he was durable within the limits imposed on him by the Nationals' front office. With the shackles removed or at least loosened in 2013, he's a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award going into the season.
Future: It's all about workload and managing his arm, as Strasburg's operating with a new elbow ligament and has the delivery and athleticism to keep that elbow healthy going forward -- to say nothing of the Nats enveloping him in bubble-wrap if he so much as sneezes.
His one path to improvement would be to drop his walk rate, but extreme power pitchers in this mold often sacrifice some control as part of a pitching plan to miss more bats, and Strasburg's control is solid-average, so if it never improves an iota he's still an ace.
LAST TIME: 8 | PLAYER CARD
6
Clayton Kershaw
AGE: 24
DOB: 3/19/88
HT: 6-3
WT: 225
POS: LHP
IP 227.2
K 229
BB 63
HR 16
ERA 2.53
WAR 6.3
Current: Only the best left-handed starter in baseball, even better than that guy in Tampa Bay, and statistically speaking the top pitcher in the National League this past year. Kershaw features a plus fastball and two plus breaking balls and God help you if you hit left-handed against him -- not that right-handed batters have a day at the beach with Kershaw on the mound, either.
Future: Kershaw's edge on Strasburg in 2012 was more about bulk innings than superior performance, as the two were pretty comparable on a per-inning basis, with Strasburg missing a few more bats but Kershaw working deeper into games (and perhaps pitching a touch more conservatively as a result). Health permitting -- and Kershaw has made 98 starts in the last three years -- he should remain one of the majors' top five starters for the foreseeable future.
LAST TIME: 5 | PLAYER CARD
7
Manny Machado
AGE: 20
DOB: 7/6/92
HT: 6-3
WT: 185
POS: SS/3B
AVG .262
OBP .294
OPS .739
HR 7
SB 2
WAR 1.5
Current: Machado was called up to the majors in 2012 out of need at the major-league level -- the Orioles' best option at third base was, it turned out, their 20-year-old Double-A shortstop.
Machado did about what you'd expect from a prodigiously talented youngster playing a new but easier position while jumping two levels to the majors: He played great defense, including the most heads-up play of the year when he picked Rich Thompson off third base, showed some pop, and struggled to get on base. This trial by fire might be his version of Mike Trout's 2011, an apprenticeship before the explosion into stardom the next year.
Future: Machado can and should play shortstop, but the Orioles have an expensive option at short in J.J. Hardy and nobody behind Machado at third, a position where there's little depth around the majors anyway.
If he stays at third long-term, Machado will still be a star, but there's some loss of value when he could have played an average or better shortstop and made his bat even more valuable. If Baltimore defies the odds again and returns to the playoffs in 2013, Machado will be a big reason.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
8
Starlin Castro
AGE: 22
DOB: 3/24/90
HT: 6-0
WT: 190
POS: SS
AVG .283
OBP .323
OPS .753
HR 14
SB 25
WAR 3.4
Current: Castro's bat speed and hand-eye coordination have produced very impressive results for a player who has yet to turn 23, walks about twice a month and is only an average runner. Castro's total of 529 hits through his age-22 season ranks 20th all-time, and he's played fewer games than any player ahead of him except Ted Williams (563 hits in nine fewer games). He's also improved himself to the point where he's playable at shortstop and might be forced off the position by another player, rather than forcing himself off of it through poor play.
Future: If Castro barely improves from here, he's still a valuable big leaguer because he can handle short and is likely to hit at least .300 with plenty of doubles power. I think he'll grow into 20-homer power in time, and while his walk rates are pretty low, he's not hopeless at the plate, giving me some reason to think he could add 15-20 walks a year in time.
LAST TIME: 6 | PLAYER CARD
9
Madison Bumgarner
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/1/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 235
POS: LHP
IP 208.1
K 191
BB 49
HR 23
ERA 3.37
WAR 1.8
Current: Bumgarner was electric early in the season and looked like he might pass both Cain and Lincecum as San Francisco's ace, but he wore down as the year went on and was shaky in the postseason, getting (and obviously needing) extra rest between starts. When he's at 100 percent, his fastball is just above-average, but his hard-breaking slider is among the most effective in the majors, even against right-handed batters.
Future: Consider this a vote of confidence that Bumgarner's fatigue was just that -- a long season for a young pitcher who might need to pace himself more in 2013, or to get a little stronger going into the season. His delivery is not easy, however, and there's a risk that what we saw in October, with everything moving the same way and flattening out because he couldn't keep his arm up, is a sign that Bumgarner's arm action isn't built for the long term.
LAST TIME: 9 | PLAYER CARD
10
Elvis Andrus
AGE: 24
DOB: 8/26/88
HT: 6-0
WT: 200
POS: SS
AVG .286
OBP .349
OPS .727
HR 3
SB 21
WAR 3.4
Current: Andrus is the apple of every other GM's eye, as they see uberprospect Jurickson Profar right behind Andrus and assume the two shortstops are burning a giant hole in Rangers GM Jon Daniels' pocket. He has turned himself into an incredibly valuable player and commodity, a plus defender at shortstop who has had to develop as a hitter at the big-league level because his glove was so far ahead of his bat when he first arrived.
Future: I think Andrus' bat has another leap in it, one that will put his average in the low .300s and bring his OBP to a point where he'd help just about any club at the top of the lineup -- which club's lineup he'll top is, of course, the operative question.
If he reaches free agency after the 2014 season, look for him to get the deal that blows everyone away that winter, as the scarcity in the shortstop market leads to a bidding frenzy for one of the few sure things available at the position.
LAST TIME: 21 | PLAYER CARD
11
Brett Lawrie
AGE: 22
DOB: 1/18/90
HT: 6-0
WT: 215
POS: 3B
AVG .273
OBP .324
OPS .729
HR 11
SB 13
WAR 4.1
Current: Lawrie's explosive 2011 performance set expectations way too high for his full-season debut, and an oblique injury he suffered in mid-July cost him all of August, although he didn't do much damage against anyone except the Jays' NL opponents even prior to that point. The lone bright spot for Lawrie was the improvement of his defense at third base to the point where he's likely to stay there for the long term.
Future: When healthy, Lawrie has one of the best right-handed swings in the game along with very good hand speed, and as long as he gets full extension he should have 20-25 homer power, if not more. He's an above-average runner and a good overall athlete, which is why third base worked out for him despite general skepticism (including from me) that he could control his body long enough to handle it.
I'd like to see what Lawrie can do in a full season without injuries, but guys who play all-out, all the time, as Lawrie does, often find themselves in the trainer's room more than you'd like.
LAST TIME: 10 | PLAYER CARD
12
Salvador Perez
AGE: 22
DOB: 5/10/90
HT: 6-3
WT: 244
POS: C
AVG .311
OBP .339
OPS .799
HR 11
SB 0
WAR 2.8
Current: His season fell way under the general radar because it was so short -- in fact, since his major-league debut on August 10, 2011, he still hasn't reached 500 career plate appearances.
He's already shown he's one of the best pure defensive catchers in baseball, but he's also starting to see his power develop to go along with consistently high contact rates that have produced a .311 average in the majors and a .287 career average in the minors. At a position that is so sorely lacking in players with offensive potential, Perez should join Matt Wieters as one of the AL's top two all-around catchers.
Future: Perez missed almost three months of the 2012 season due to a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, an injury we'd likely forget were it not for Perez' position on the diamond. As long as his knees hold up and he can catch 130 or so games a year, I'm comfortable with his potential to have a solid run of 4 WAR seasons, perhaps a little above that, due to his emerging power. If he has to move out from behind the plate, however, his value would plummet.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
13
Aroldis Chapman
AGE: 24
DOB: 2/28/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 200
POS: LHP
IP 71.2
K 122
BB 23
HR 4
ERA 1.51
WAR 3.6
Current: For the purposes of this list, I'm calling Chapman a starter, which was his role when pitching for the Cuban national team before he defected. We've seen what he can do in relief -- sitting 98-100, hitting 104, with a wipeout slider and a changeup that was almost doing hitters a favor because it arrived at a hittable velocity. He'll need to dial it down a notch to start, but his delivery should support 100 pitches per game if he does so, and I think his changeup, one which he has shown good arm speed with, will become a more effective weapon with increased use.
Future: If Chapman meets my expectations for him as a starter, he'll be among the top 10 in the game, with stuff that rivals Strasburg's and Kershaw's. If not, we already know he can be about as valuable as any reliever can be under the current, brain-dead reliever usage paradigm, where relievers are subject to spontaneous decapitation if they're allowed to get more than three outs in one game.
LAST TIME: 33 | PLAYER CARD
14
Matt Moore
AGE: 23
DOB: 6/18/89
HT: 6-2
WT: 205
POS: LHP
IP 177.1
K 175
BB 81
HR 18
ERA 3.81
WAR 1.2
Current: Moore ended up 10th in the AL in strikeouts in a very promising rookie season that saw him improve as the year went on, with small improvements in his strikeout and walk rates from the first half to the second. His curveball remains an above-average pitch for him and his changeup was good enough to keep right-handers in check, as he showed no real platoon split this year.
Future: He should crack the 200-strikeout threshold this year as he's allowed to make 33 starts, and I expect his walk total to drop as well (he had the seventh-most in the AL in 2012). He does everything so easily, including running his fastball up to 97 mph, that I feel very good about his chances to stay healthy and to join David Price as a second ace atop the Rays' rotation.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
15
Jarrod Parker
AGE: 24
DOB: 11/24/88
HT: 6-1
WT: 195
POS: RHP
IP 181.1
K 140
BB 63
HR 11
ERA 3.47
WAR 3.7
Current: Parker ended up outpitching the man for whom he was traded, Trevor Cahill, in a superb debut season that looked even better thanks to an incredibly favorable home ballpark. Parker was a four-seamer/slider guy before 2009 Tommy John surgery, but has remade himself into a two-seamer/changeup/slider guy since then, mitigating the lack of downward plane on his fastball by switching to a version that has some sink. His changeup might be one of the most underrated in the game.
Future: He was always a better control guy in the minors than he was in 2012 in the majors, and he didn't miss as many bats last year as I might have expected given his raw stuff, although the latter was partly the result of an attempt to get more ground balls and generate quicker outs. Parker has one of the cleaner arm swings around, and I like his chances to be a consistent 200-inning guy with sub-3.50 ERAs for years to come.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
16
Chris Sale
AGE: 23
DOB: 3/30/89
HT: 6-6
WT: 180
POS: LHP
IP 192.0
K 192
BB 51
HR 19
ERA 3.05
WAR 5.8
Current: I was always a big skeptic on Sale, thanks to the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now, but Sale pitched like an ace for most of the year and would have made my AL Cy Young ballot had I voted on that award. In his first full year as a starter in the pros, his changeup became his best pitch again (as it was in college), while he pitched with an above-average fastball and still showed the good slider that was his out pitch the previous year when he was in relief.
Future: So why isn't Sale in the top 10? That funky arm action is the main reason, as well as the three separate times that something went slightly awry with Sale's arm in 2012, resulting in an abortive return to the pen and a skipped start in July. It's so unusual to see a pitcher come from a slot that low and get hitters on both sides of the plate out, which makes Sale fun to watch, but I feel like we're already on borrowed time given how his arm works in the back of his delivery.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
17
Matt Harvey
AGE: 23
DOB: 3/27/89
HT: 6-4
WT: 210
POS: RHP
IP 59.1
K 70
BB 26
HR 5
ERA 2.73
WAR 1.5
Current: Harvey's first major-league start was among the most electric I've ever seen; for five innings he was throwing fire and brimstone with a vicious slider and a fastball up to 98 mph, which isn't to denigrate his curve or changeup. He wasn't that precise package every time out, and his command still isn't very consistent, but that's a four-pitch mix that would work in the top two slots of most big-league rotations, right on top if he throws more and better-quality strikes with it.
Future: His delivery is much cleaner today than it was when he was a third-round pick out of high school or a struggling reliever in the Cape Cod League before his junior year of college, so there's no physical reason he can't improve his command and control to at least solid-average. He's also shown the aptitude to make major adjustments to his delivery, which bodes well for his ability to refine his pitching plan and dial back a little to improve his location.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
18
Anthony Rizzo
AGE: 23
DOB: 8/8/89
HT: 6-3
WT: 220
POS: 1B
AVG .285
OBP .342
OPS .805
HR 15
SB 3
WAR 2.2
Current: The Cubs acquired Rizzo for hard-throwing, constantly-injured Andrew Cashner before the 2012 season, and they helped Rizzo shorten his swing to allow him to make more contact, especially against lefties. The changes largely worked: Rizzo cut his strikeout rate dramatically versus his 2011 tenure with the Padres, even making more contact against southpaws.
He's a terrific defensive first baseman and has earned high marks for his makeup from all three of the organizations that have employed him.
Future: A full season for Rizzo in 2013 should see him hit close to 25 homers with an average in the high .200s along with that great defense at first. He's only moderately patient, although that might improve as he becomes more of a power threat. The biggest question is whether he can avoid becoming a platoon player: He raked against lefties in Triple-A last year but had just a .599 OPS against them in the majors, albeit with a .221 BABIP. Given his age and the speed with which he has made adjustments, I like his odds of figuring out southpaws.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
19
Freddie Freeman
AGE: 23
DOB: 9/12/89
HT: 6-5
WT: 225
POS: 1B
AVG .259
OBP .340
OPS .796
HR 23
SB 2
WAR 2.1
Current: Freeman has had two very solid, nearly identical seasons in the majors that established him as a solid-average but unspectacular everyday first baseman, with a mediocre batting eye and slightly above-average power, along with above-average glove work at first. He dealt with a scratched cornea for part of the first half of 2012, and played slightly better, with more power, after the problem was resolved.
Future: I like Freeman but don't see him as having the same ceiling as the other first basemen on this list, guys with better bat speed or more power. On the other hand, Freeman has a pretty high established level of performance in the majors, isn't futile against lefties, and might be headed for an uptick in production now that the cornea issue is behind him.
LAST TIME: 29 | PLAYER CARD
20
Yasmani Grandal
AGE: 24
DOB: 11/8/88
HT: 6-2
WT: 210
POS: C
AVG .297
OBP .394
OPS .863
HR 8
SB 0
WAR 2.7
Current: He'll miss the first 50 games of the 2013 season due to a positive test for a banned PED, but I don't think that seriously affects his long-term outlook as an everyday catcher who rakes when hitting left-handed, is passable right-handed and can control the running game with a strong, accurate arm. He's also got a long history of game-calling that makes up for the fact that his hands aren't great for the position.
Future: Grandal has little upside remaining, and unless you think his 2012 line was all PED-boosted (I don't), the future should look a lot like the present, with pop and patience at a position where any kind of offense is welcome. The one area left for improvement is in his throwing, as he nabbed just 23 percent of base-stealers in the majors, well below his minor league rate of 34 percent.
21
Andrelton Simmons
AGE: 23
DOB: 9/4/89
HT: 6-2
WT: 170
POS: SS
AVG .289
OBP .335
OPS .751
HR 3
SB 1
WAR 2.8
Current: He's the best defensive shortstop in the majors, period. Simmons is an 80 defender (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with an 80 arm -- he was up to 98 mph as a pitcher in junior college, but most evaluators didn't think he'd hit. He's made plenty of contact since entering pro ball and did enough of that in limited major-league time last year to make himself more than just a defensive specialist.
Future: The hope here is that he turns into Elvis Andrus. Simmons is already Andrus' superior with the glove, but the low-walks, low-power approach at the plate that still resulted in high batting averages in the minors is no lock to do the same in the majors. Simmons' swing is long and his pitch recognition isn't great, so maybe he never becomes a big walker, but if he can post .360-plus OBPs with his glove he'll be a down-ballot MVP candidate in many years.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
22
Will Middlebrooks
AGE: 24
DOB: 9/9/88
HT: 6-4
WT: 200
POS: 3B
AVG .288
OBP .325
OPS .834
HR 15
SB 4
WAR 1.1
Current: Middlebrooks started out on fire after his early-May promotion, but once interleague play ended in late June his free-swinging ways caught up to him, with a .244/.277/.423 line from the resumption of AL-only play until his season ended on August 10 due to a broken wrist. He has above-average power with average range, good hands, and a plus arm at third base.
Future: A low-OBP, 25-30 homer third baseman who adds a few runs (saved) of value on defense is a good player, even if he's held back by the number of outs he makes with his bat. My concern on Middlebrooks is more in the short term, that we'll see a drop in his power production as pitchers exploit his total lack of patience at the plate.
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
23
Craig Kimbrel
AGE: 24
DOB: 5/28/88
HT: 5-11
WT: 205
POS: RHP
IP 62.2
K 116
BB 14
HR 3
ERA 1.01
WAR 3.2
Current: It doesn't get much better than what Kimbrel did in 63 innings last year unless you're willing to think outside the one-reliever, one-inning box. Kimbrel's stuff is absolutely filthy, and the turnaround in his control is remarkable: In 2009, he threw 60 minor-league innings and walked 45 guys, but in 2012, he threw 63 innings and walked just 14.
Future: It doesn't get much better than this, and it won't. But enjoy it while it lasts, because Kimbrel's stats, at least on a per-inning or per-batter basis, are historic, and credit of manager Fredi Gonzalez -- he backed off last season after working Kimbrel and Atlanta's setup guys way too hard in 2011.
LAST TIME: 49 | PLAYER CARD
24
Eric Hosmer
AGE: 23
DOB: 10/23/89
HT: 6-4
WT: 229
POS: 1B
AVG .232
OBP .304
OPS .663
HR 14
SB 16
WAR -0.7
Current: Hosmer was the best hitter in the Cactus League last spring, and when the bell rang on Opening Day, that guy evaporated into thin air. Hosmer spent much of the year holding his hands up high and tight, so while he still worked the count and squared up a lot of balls, he was also late on a lot of pitches he should have driven and never showed the raw power that was obvious in his rookie season.
Future: I'm still a believer in Hosmer's potential as a hitter, both in his ability to hit for average (and get on base) as well as his ability to hit for power. The Royals let hitting coach Kevin Seitzer go after the season, and I can only assume getting Hosmer back to his 2011 setup will be a major priority for Jack Maloof, Seitzer's replacement.
There is All-Star potential here, someone around whom the Royals can build their lineup for years, but 2012 was a surprising bump in the road for Hosmer and it's not a lock that the Royals can get him over it.
LAST TIME: 7 | PLAYER CARD
25
Chris Tillman
AGE: 24
DOB: 4/15/88
HT: 6-5
WT: 200
POS: RHP
IP 86.0
K 66
BB 24
HR 12
ERA 2.93
WAR 1.5
Current: Tillman looked like a lost cause at the start of the 2012 season, but when he returned from exile in July, he started to resemble the guy who was a top-40 prospect in the game heading into the 2009 season. Tillman's fastball velocity returned, as he was sitting in the low 90s again and touching 95-96 while his curveball regained its old bite. The one new item is the much-improved changeup -- 80-84 with late fade -- a pitch Tillman likes to throw middle-away or down and away to lefties as an out pitch.
Future: As a prospect, Tillman projected as a No. 2 starter whose curve was his out pitch and whose change would be good enough. He's probably back to that ceiling, but now it's more of a question of improving his fastball command to get him to that point. For a guy who looked like a fifth starter or worse just seven months ago, this is an outstanding turnaround
LAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
